EU-BREXIT - Page 201 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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By JohnRawls
#15014400
Kaiserschmarrn wrote:So much for the tide is turning. Any day now though ...


Not that i support the tide is turning but even your survey shows that 50 of Remain didn't show up to vote. A lot less will not show up if there is a 2nd referendum after the hectic 2.5 years. So in a sense the tide didn't need to be turned, the voters just needed to show up.
User avatar
By Kaiserschmarrn
#15014408
The table shows that 50% of those who didn't vote say that they would vote remain, not that 50% of Remain didn't show up.

The tide turning was usually used to mean that more and more people would change their minds in favour of Remain.
By BML
#15014418
I stopped reading British newspapers when I could no longer accept their right to attempt to brainwash me into accepting their views on Brexit taking the decision that as soon as it was sorted out I would look for the best book available in an attempt to understand two things.

One. Why the British electorate allowed the members of Parliament to treat them with the contempt that they have?
Two. Why Corbyn has behaved in the way that he has regarding Brexit?

I understand that there have been 300 books written on Brexit. Obviously many of them will be out of date but does a single book stand out as worth buying?
User avatar
By Beren
#15014461
BML wrote:Why Corbyn has behaved in the way that he has regarding Brexit?

Good question, I'd like to have his brain examined as that of Einstein's was after his death. :lol:

BML wrote:Obviously many of them will be out of date but does a single book stand out as worth buying?

PoFo's 200-page Brexit-book perhaps, and it keeps growing! :excited:
By B0ycey
#15014467
Kaiserschmarrn wrote:The table shows that 50% of those who didn't vote say that they would vote remain, not that 50% of Remain didn't show up.


But only 25% said they would vote leave so that would imply that if the non-voters turned up and voted, the result would have been different which was exactly what John Rawls said.

Although really to me the real reason the tide hasn't turned except perhaps a rippling in the sea is simply because the consequences of leaving the EU simply have not been felt or seen yet. People are judging the impact on what they see now and what they see is what is on offer if the UK remained in the EU. Should Johnson actually survive a no confidence vote and keep his word and leave on 'No Deal', when recession hits, prices rise and jobs are lost, something tells me only the hardcore Brexiteers will continue to support their belief. Most of the other Leavers will simply bemoan they were lied to and turn the tide ready for the rise of the Lib Dems in the forecoming general election.

People have always voted with their pockets. Brexit will be no different.
User avatar
By Beren
#15014496
In my opinion the majority have never meant to leave the EU, Leavers won the referendum with their enthusiasm while Remainers have never even had a leader. Cameron pulled the Tories out of the EPP, which may have been the very beginning of Brexit, whereas Corbyn refuses to appear to be a Remainer even in the slightest, although he admitted to having voted to remain in the EU. He also refuses to tell Brexit like it is, even after the appearance of the Brexit Party, although it would be an honest leftist thing to do and he must be aware that he'd need a thriving UK economy to proceed with his agenda as PM, maybe that's why he wants to keep the UK in a customs union with the EU at least.
By BML
#15014497
Beren wrote:Good question, I'd like to have his brain examined as that of Einstein's was after his death. :lol:


I have led a sheltered life and know not this book. "PoFo's 200-page Brexit-book" perhaps, and it keeps growing! :excited:

"PoFo's 200-page Brexit-book"???????????
By layman
#15014528
Bojo probably won’t try to force through no deal. It’s just a ruse to fool the geriatric Tory membership.

He is a cunt but actually a fairly liberal one. Those instincts with gel with his confidence as a salesman to push through withdrawal 2.0. Id predict the eu will offer token concessions because they might believe he can actually get it through Parliament, unlike May.

They also want this whole thing over and that is the quickest way with least damage and headache.
User avatar
By JohnRawls
#15014530
layman wrote:Bojo probably won’t try to force through no deal. It’s just a ruse to fool the geriatric Tory membership.

He is a cunt but actually a fairly liberal one. Those instincts with gel with his confidence as a salesman to push through withdrawal 2.0. Id predict the eu will offer token concessions because they might believe he can actually get it through Parliament, unlike May.

They also want this whole thing over and that is the quickest way with least damage and headache.


The issue is that Bojo can't really force through a no deal without breaking democracy. The Parliament won't allow for a no deal. Bojos wishes are kinda irrelevant. Its the same situation as May was in. Since parliament consider the deal shit so it didn't allow to pass it.
User avatar
By Beren
#15014535
BoJo isn't really the issue here. The EU won't renegotiate the Withdrawal Agreement and the backstop remains anyway, so either Hunt or BoJo will have to try to push it through parliament again as it is or call a general election or a second referendum. I'd find a general election more likely because they both would have to strengthen their position as PM and they both could capitalise on their fresh momentum, BoJo especially.
User avatar
By Kaiserschmarrn
#15014551
B0ycey wrote:But only 25% said they would vote leave so that would imply that if the non-voters turned up and voted, the result would have been different which was exactly what John Rawls said.

That's not exactly true and it's not what he said either. What the table tells us is the preference of non-voters today who now say they would vote. Three years ago they were either undecided or not interested in voting, and 25% are still in that category.

As I've mentioned before in this thread a while ago, some 4 years after the referendum in the 70s there was a large swing in public opinion in favour of leaving the EU, so back then the tide did actually turn quite dramatically. Based on this, we should give Remainers another referendum in about 4 decades.

B0ycey wrote:Although really to me the real reason the tide hasn't turned except perhaps a rippling in the sea is simply because the consequences of leaving the EU simply have not been felt or seen yet. People are judging the impact on what they see now and what they see is what is on offer if the UK remained in the EU. Should Johnson actually survive a no confidence vote and keep his word and leave on 'No Deal', when recession hits, prices rise and jobs are lost, something tells me only the hardcore Brexiteers will continue to support their belief. Most of the other Leavers will simply bemoan they were lied to and turn the tide ready for the rise of the Lib Dems in the forecoming general election.

People have always voted with their pockets. Brexit will be no different.

Right, it's just around the corner. :lol:
By BML
#15014554
"The issue is that Bojo can't really force through a no deal without breaking democracy." Parliament and by that I mean the MPs have already exposed the fact that "Democracy" is a sham by ignoring the result of the referendum.
MPs might claim that they represent all the people of their constituency, their party and the interests of the country. However, the get out is that it is a tenet of representative democracy that MPs are not delegates for their constituents in other words they can and they do just what they want so where does that leave, "Democracy"?
User avatar
By JohnRawls
#15014561
BML wrote:"The issue is that Bojo can't really force through a no deal without breaking democracy." Parliament and by that I mean the MPs have already exposed the fact that "Democracy" is a sham by ignoring the result of the referendum.
MPs might claim that they represent all the people of their constituency, their party and the interests of the country. However, the get out is that it is a tenet of representative democracy that MPs are not delegates for their constituents in other words they can and they do just what they want so where does that leave, "Democracy"?


We all know that its 50-50 basically for ages now.(I don't really care how its counted. In a sense people who don't vote also don't count etc) Parliament is not exposing Democracy as a sham. This concept is inbuilt in the democratic process. MPs get elected from local constituencies so they also have a stance of for or against depending on the places. That's the whole point. Checks and balances basically.

Usually big issues like changes to the constitutions, impactful referendums(Brexit), etc carry a supermajority rule because of the issues that are being encountered. If there was a super majority for Brexit the UK would have left already. But there simply isn't.
User avatar
By Kaiserschmarrn
#15014579
JohnRawls wrote:Usually big issues like changes to the constitutions, impactful referendums(Brexit), etc carry a supermajority rule because of the issues that are being encountered. If there was a super majority for Brexit the UK would have left already. But there simply isn't.

Do you know how many referendums to join the EU required a super majority?

I think the more important question is who is for and who is against.
User avatar
By noemon
#15014581
Kaiserschmarrn wrote:Do you know how many referendums to join the EU required a super majority?


John did not say "supermajority referendums" such a thing does not even exist in constitutional practice I believe, he said supermajorities which refers to parliamentary supermajorities and most(as far as I'm aware of) EU countries joined the EEC/EU with parliamentary supermajorities indeed. Britain did not have a supermajority in 1972 as Labour whipped its MP's against the EEC Treaty. Regardless, it is not just fair but also politically rational & necessary for such major changes in the structure of a state to require extended majorities aka supermajorities in order to designate the decision final and bring the nation together towards that goal, otherwise division & bitterness can result in undermining the decision thus rendering the whole project futile but also causing deep political and economic issues, situations that are currently unraveling before our eyes in Britain and which very likely trace their origins back to that initial lack of a supermajority in Britain as well.
By B0ycey
#15014607
BML wrote:"The issue is that Bojo can't really force through a no deal without breaking democracy." Parliament and by that I mean the MPs have already exposed the fact that "Democracy" is a sham by ignoring the result of the referendum.


It cannot be a sham because that is how UK democracy works. The EU referendum could only ever be advisory and no rules were set in place to how we left the EU in any case. Should MPs decide they don't want to leave the EU without a deal that is the sovereign right to do that and wasn't a condition in the referendum to prevent such action anyhow. If BoJo doesn't like that he can call an early election and better his hand. And if he doesn't he has to work with the hand he has which will try to block a no deal Brexit anyway it can.

Nonetheless it will be the EU who will decide on whether we leave with or without a deal in October regardless of parliaments wishes. If MPs want an extention they would have to oust Johnson. I doubt the EU feel like entertaining that moron past October regardless of the consequences to them or if he U-turns. Anyone else could ask for an extention and I suspect they would receive exactly what they asked for on the hope there be a resolution to this mess perhaps.
User avatar
By JohnRawls
#15014641
@Kaiserschmarrn @noemon

What i meant by super-majority is definitely related to the parliament. Usually referendums are permitted by parliament or at least parliament is consulted on them with the need to have supermajority of parliament for it. (This is done to prevent issues appearing which you have in the UK. Now supermajority rule can be different: 60%, 66% or 75%. In Estonia it is 66% i think while in Latvia it is 75% for sure)

As for super majority in referendums themselves then such system is not used anywhere. What is used though is something similar which is called double majority. (In practice it is kinda a supermajority) Which means that the vote needs to be 55%+ and also either participation has to be over 65% or the majority of districts(Cantons in Switzerland for example) need to be for it.
User avatar
By JohnRawls
#15014795
Just to annoy Brexiters a bit.

Link:https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48807161

EU and Mercosur agree huge trade deal after 20-year talks


Basically we in the EU are striking long negotiated trade deals. :excited:
How is life UK?

Tariffs will go down and perhaps disappear over time. Mercosur market is open for us and we can compete for government contracts :excited:


The EU-Mercosur region-to-region agreement will remove the majority of tariffs on EU exports to Mercosur, making EU companies more competitive by saving them €4 billion worth of duties per year.

As regards EU industrial sectors, this will help boost exports of EU products that have so far been facing high and sometimes prohibitive tariffs. Those include cars (tariff of 35%), car parts (14-18%), machinery (14-20%), chemicals (up to 18%), pharmaceuticals (up to 14%), clothing and footwear (35%) or knitted fabrics (26%).
The EU agri-food sector will benefit from slashing existing Mercosur high tariffs on EU export products, chocolates and confectionery (20%), wines (27%), spirits (20 to 35%), and soft drinks (20 to 35%). The agreement will also provide duty-free access subject to quotas for EU dairy products (currently 28% tariff), notably for cheeses.


Like the alt-right say: GOT EM BOYZZZZ!
User avatar
By Nonsense
#15014798
JohnRawls wrote:Just to annoy Brexiters a bit.

Link:https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48807161



Basically we in the EU are striking long negotiated trade deals. :excited:
How is life UK?

Tariffs will go down and perhaps disappear over time. Mercosur market is open for us and we can compete for government contracts :excited:



The E.U must be aligning itself to Third World status once the U.K extricates itself from their clutches.

Twenty years to agree a trade deal with a Third Country, yet the E.U cannot even reform itself & deliver it's pre-ambit of improving the lives of everyone in it's clutches. :hmm:
Obviously, the wheels of Brussels turn exceedingly slowly, the Brazilian rainforest will disappear to make way for profits to a few rich, corrupt Brazillian politicians & cheaper coffee for the eurocrats.

The global direction is turning against globalisation, in which 'rules' are disregarded whenever it's convenient, unless you are an E.U member & are then severely penalised.
'Deals' are a double-edged sword, if migration is part of the deal, then populism will continue to expand within europe, whilst we in the U.K do not need to agree deals that involve unbalanced migration between the countries involved.

It remains to be seen whether, in the light of PUTIN's comments against all forms of 'Liberalism', if the E.U dig an even deeper hole for themselves, if they do, the U.K will become even more entrenched against any future attempts at rejoining europe.

As for internationalist Labour, they have virtually spent any political capital that they had banked against Tory policies , their policies are ridiculous in the extreme & they are truly economically illiterate.
The U.K has plenty of friendly countries in which deals can be made, so our future is better than many can imagine right now, the pessimist always point out clouds on the horizon, the optimist will look for the sunshine between those clouds. :up:
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