Labour Wins Peterborough contrary to media, bookies & polls handing victory to Brexit party - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15010637
Independent wrote:Peterborough by-election result: Brexit Party fails to win first MP as Labour retains seat
Labour’s Lisa Forbes wins seat vacated by disgraced MP Fiona Onasanya

Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party has failed to secure its first parliamentary seat as Labour snatched victory in the Peterborough by-election.

Unite activist Lisa Forbes was elected with a majority of 683 in the marginal seat vacated by disgraced MP Fiona Onasanya, who was sacked by her constituents for lying over a speeding offence.

Labour’s victory comes as a blow to Mr Farage’s ambitions, as his recently-formed party sought to build on its strong European election performance to win a foothold in parliament.

The constituency, which voted overwhelmingly for Brexit in 2016, had been squarely in the party’s sights but appears to have been defeated by Labour’s more established ground campaign.

It was also a tough night for the Conservatives who slumped to third place, in a blow to Theresa May on her final day as Tory leader.

Lisa Forbes won the seat with 10,484 votes to the Brexit Party’s 9,801, with the Tories in third on 7,243 votes, in a seat which has traditionally been a Conservative-Labour marginal.

In her victory address, Ms Forbes said it was clear that the “politics of hope can win regardless of the odds”.

“Despite the differing opinions across our city, the fact that the Brexit Party have been rejected here in Peterborough shows that the politics of division will not win,’’ she said.

Ms Forbes had faced controversy days before the poll when she had to apologise for endorsing an antisemitic Facebook post that claimed Theresa May had a “Zionist Slave Masters agenda”.

The then-candidate said it included a video of children praying following the Christchurch attacks.

Labour’s vote share had nonetheless fallen by more than 17 percentage points from the 2017 general election, while that of the Conservatives was down by more than 25 percentage points.

Brexit Party candidate Mike Greene, a businessman best known for appearing on Channel 4’s Secret Millionaire, had been the bookies’ favourites to win the seat

Apparently aware of impending defeat, Mr Farage left the count before the result was announced.

A Brexit Party spokesman hailed it as a “remarkable result”, adding: “If we can come so close in our 201st target seat, no seat is safe.

“We’re very proud of Mike Greene and our supporters who worked so hard. Thanks to the people of Peterborough who voted for us – we promise you that we’re here to stay!”

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn hailed the result as a sign that his party was trusted by voters despite the criticism it has failed to take a clear line on Brexit.

Congratulating his candidate ”on a great win and a people powered campaign”, he said that voters had “shown clear support for Labour’s programme to end austerity and invest in services and communities, rejecting a decade of Tory cuts and their disastrous handling of Brexit.

“In this key seat, the Conservatives have been pushed to the margins.”

He added: “This result shows that in spite of the divisions and deadlock over Brexit, when it comes to a vote on the issues that directly affect people’s lives, Labour’s case for real change has strong support across the country.”

Labour Party chairman Ian Lavery said he was “chuffed to bits” with the result.

He tweeted: “Congratulations to the fabulous LisaForbes – Great team effort UKLabour members supporters & officials. Increased majority despite being written off by the many not the few. Chuffed to bits. Simple.”

The by-election was called after Peterborough’s previous MP Fiona Onasanya was forced out after she was jailed for lying about a speeding offence.

Onasanya was elected as a Labour MP in 2017 with a wafer thin majority of 607 but she was kicked out of the party after she was sentenced.

Local Tory activists expressed frustration that they were unable to take advantage of Labour’s difficulties due to ongoing Brexit chaos.

Wayne Fitzgerald, chairman of the Peterborough Conservative Association, said it was now essential the party committed to taking Britain out of the EU, even if it meant no deal.

“Parliamentarians in Westminster are against the will of the people,” he told Sky News.

“The Conservatives must de-select every MP who will not accept a WTO (World Trade Organisation) Brexit if it comes to that.

“If Boris or whoever is leader doesn’t do that, Mr Farage will sweep to 450 seats in the next general election.”
#15010650
Although the Brexit Party was considered a certain winner, they may have helped Labour keep that seat actually.

Image

Rancid wrote:Excuse my ignorance of Gritish politics, but how big of a deal is this really?

Corbyn's arse got slightly saved, so he can return to or keep calling for a general election instead of a second referendum, which could be reasonable though.
#15010747
OP's Independent Article wrote:it has failed to take a clear line on Brexit.

I know that adopting a nuanced position is an anathema in British politics but saying they have "failed to take a clear line on Brexit' is a bit silly.

The democratically agreed (NEC, 1 May 2019) policy:

"If we can't get a sensible deal, along the lines of Labour's alternative plan, or a general election [to allow for a new parliament willing to implement a sensible deal], Labour backs the option of a public vote."

It is as clear as day.
Last edited by noemon on 08 Jun 2019 14:34, edited 1 time in total. Reason: quote fixed
#15010831
snapdragon wrote:He's trying to appease both remainers and leavers, which is impossible.

That's why he comes across as being such a dick.


Yeah, what an asshole he is by supporting both within his party instead of picking one side. You'd be pissed by everything he did except choosing your side, like a baby. :D

ingliz wrote:It is as clear as day.


It's been clear for months but the media keep pushing this dumb shit.
#15010848
ingliz wrote:I know that adopting a nuanced position is an anathema in British politics but saying they have "failed to take a clear line on Brexit' is a bit silly.

The democratically agreed (NEC, 1 May 2019) policy:

"If we can't get a sensible deal, along the lines of Labour's alternative plan, or a general election [to allow for a new parliament willing to implement a sensible deal], Labour backs the option of a public vote."

It is as clear as day.


I would disagree, who will decide when a General Election or Labour Alternative plan are not feasible anymore? May for example fought for her deal to no end. Corbyn can do the same. I think that this is way for him to say that he supports 2nd referendum without actually doing anything about it or actually supporting it in reality. I don't understand how people can be so foolish. May be it is because people think that there is no alternative to Corbyn in their mind but the reality is that there is always an alternative.
#15010851
skinster wrote:It's been clear for months but the media keep pushing this dumb shit.


What are the media suppose to do? When asked if he (Corbyn) supports another referendum his response is he wants another election. Other parties take a position. Saying yes but is simply alienating the remain vote of which the Lib Dems are capitalising from actually. Should a coalition be required after the next election, it will be the Lib Dems who will find it easier to form a government should it turn into a rainbow parliament.
#15010855
JohnRawls wrote:I would disagree...

Boris will be crowned on ?July 22nd?.

Boris will lose a vote of confidence on July 23rd.

Labour as the next biggest party will be asked to form a government, a rainbow coalition given the parliamentary arithmetic, as per Fixed-Term Parliament Act (2011).

If successful, depending on what noises the EU makes, two options are available.

1. If the EU allows an extension, a second referendum is called .

2. If the EU rejects an extension, the WA is ratified to avoid no deal, the political declaration amended, and a soft brexit pursued

Revoke is not on the table.

That changes if the 10 Conservative Remainers refuse to join the National government.

The Queen dissolves Parliament and calls a GE.

Given how little time will be left to act, Labour campaigns for remain.

If Labour wins, Labour has a mandate and revokes.

Labour, win or lose, has done its best to stop a hard brexit. You seem to forget that the opposition in an elected dictatorship are little more than noises off.


Edits: Edited for clarity
Last edited by ingliz on 08 Jun 2019 21:00, edited 3 times in total.
#15010858
ingliz wrote:Boris will be crowned on ?July 22nd?.

Boris will lose a vote of confidence on July 23rd.

Labour will be asked to form a government in a rainbow coalition as per fixed Parliament Act.

If successful, depending what noises the EU makes, WA is ratified to avoid no deal and a soft brexit pursued (no extension) or a second referendum on the WA is called.

If the 10 Conservative Remainers refuse to join the National government, the Queen dissolves Parliament and calls for a GE.

Given how little time will be left to act, Labour campaigns for remain.

If Labour wins, Labour has a mandate and revokes.

Labour, win or lose, has done its best to stop a hard brexit. You seem to forget that the opposition in an elected dictatorship are little more than noises off.


Labours plan is dead on arrival the same way Mays plan is dead on arrival. There is no consensus or compromise for any of the options with the current parliament. So the only choices are leave with no deal or remain. If you think something else will happen under Corbyn then you are gravely mistaken.

So reality is: (Likely hood of outcomes until October 2019)
1) General Election.
2) No deal Brexit
3) Remain

Now although General Election is more likely than anything else, still how likely it is? I do not think it is very likely because Tories and Labour will only loose in this election so they will not vote for it. Same thing goes for anyone becides Lib Dems, Brexit party and perhaps SNP. But those 3 parties are barely represented right now or not represented at all. So the chances are high the October deadline will also be skipped and the next one and the next one until the standard election cycle comes again. :knife:
#15010859
JohnRawls wrote:So the chances are high the October deadline will also be skipped and the next one and the next one until the standard election cycle comes again. :knife:

Extensions are a gift from the EU.

France is not in a giving mood.

"We must not get sucked into repeated extensions, that's for sure”

A French presidential adviser


:lol:
#15010861
skinster wrote:Yeah, what an asshole he is by supporting both within his party instead of picking one side. You'd be pissed by everything he did except choosing your side, like a baby. :D


He can't support both.

He needs to speak up properly about where he stands as leader of the Labur Party

It's been clear for months but the media keep pushing this dumb shit.


The only thing that is clear is he wants to be PM.
#15010863
snapdragon wrote:The only thing that is clear is he wants to be PM.

The English are very stupid so a second referendum is not the best option.

When the lies are trotted out again they will likely vote leave again.

Much better that a general election is called. With the Tory vote split, campaigning to remain, he will be Corbyn PM elected with a mandate to revoke.
#15010865
ingliz wrote:Extensions are a gift from the EU.

France is not in a giving mood.

"We must not get sucked into repeated extensions, that's for sure”

A French presidential adviser


:lol:


As much as i disagree with the policy, it seems that we will cave in once again. I also thought that we will not give any extensions and continue with our thing but it seems the EU simply doesn't care anymore.

It is hard to explain for me because i haven't wrapped my head a bit around it but as much as i considered it. I think that the EU currently doesn't think that not extending and extending are that much different in the loose-gain department. We are okay with both. So it heavily depends on what the UK wants. If UK wants no deal then sure go ahead and if UK begs for extension again then sure also.
#15010881
The Independent wrote:it has failed to take a clear line on Brexit

Here's why that is accurate reporting:
John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, was among the Corbyn allies who hardened their position, saying on Monday that a second referendum was inevitable because Tory MPs would not back an election. Asked whether it was time to support a second referendum in any circumstances, McDonnell said: “I think it is, yes.”

He added: “Our only option now is to go back to the people in a referendum and that is the position we’re in now.”

Emily Thornberry, the shadow foreign secretary, Diane Abbott, the shadow home secretary, Shami Chakrabarti, the shadow attorney general, and Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, also called for a clearer position in favour of a people’s vote on Brexit in light of the European election results.

Starmer said a second referendum was the “only way to break the Brexit impasse” with a “credible leave option and remain”, while Thornberry said: “I fear we will have no deal and we must be clear it will be a disaster for the country so we must have a second referendum.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ter-exodus

So that's McDonnell, Thornberry, Abbott and Starmer - all major figures in Labour's Brexit policy - saying there needs to be a new referendum, while Corbyn dithers with "not at the stage yet". So "it", ie the Labour party, does not have a clear line.
#15010899
Kaiserschmarrn wrote:What people think Labour's policy is:

Image
Source


It is weird how Corbyn can get away with something like the above. If it was a Tory doing it, he would be FLIP-FLOPITY. But when Corbyn does it then its okay for some reason.

People will get mad over this but even Trump has a more coherent policy system compared to Corbyn. No wonder he is a political looser as of current date. To not have a coherent opinion on the most important issue that your country is currently phasing is borderline treason and should disqualify you from politics.
#15010914
I don't think Corbyn is "getting away with it"; headlines from the past few days are along the lines of "Brexit: Labour members demand Corbyn ‘unambiguously’ support Final Say vote after Peterborough by-election", "Frontbench Jeremy Corbyn ally says Labour wants second Brexit referendum and will back Remain", or"Corbyn stands by aides after criticism of Brexit stance". And their polling support (intention to vote in the next general election) has plummeted, with this the most feasible explanation:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... al_summary

ingliz wrote:Boris will be crowned on ?July 22nd?.

Boris will lose a vote of confidence on July 23rd.

Labour as the next biggest party will be asked to form a government, a rainbow coalition given the parliamentary arithmetic, as per Fixed-Term Parliament Act (2011).

I can't see anything in the act saying Labour would be asked to form a government; "Her Majesty's Government" gets 14 days to get a motion of confidence passed, and if they can't, then it's a general election.

But I think assuming that he (or any Tory) would lose a vote of confidence the first day in power is over-optimistic. Several Tory MPs would have to vote to lose their jobs. They might get pushed that far eventually, but I think they'd hope that some other outcome would be possible first.
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