[Kaiserschmarrn]

It is weird how Corbyn can get away with something like the above. If it was a Tory doing it, he would be FLIP-FLOPITY. But when Corbyn does it then its okay for some reason.

He's been getting a lot of flak for it, but the idea seems to be that Labour can squeeze out wins like that in Peterborough because the Brexit party takes more votes from the Tories than the LibDems from Labour. The Tories are certainly afraid of that scenario.

[JohnRawls]

He's been getting a lot of flak for it, but the idea seems to be that Labour can squeeze out wins like that in Peterborough because the Brexit party takes more votes from the Tories than the LibDems from Labour. The Tories are certainly afraid of that scenario.

How does it help the crysis in the country? How does it help to solve Brexit one way or the other? Parliament is just getting more fragmented and perhaps labour are getting some gains compared to the tories but so what? They are still loosing votes.

[Beren]

It is weird how Corbyn can get away with something like the above. If it was a Tory doing it, he would be FLIP-FLOPITY. But when Corbyn does it then its okay for some reason.

I'm not sure if he flip-flops on a 2nd referendum, he's rather ambiguous about it, but after the EP-election he said any deal should be put to a public vote. But he doesn't want to push too hard for a 2nd referendum because he has to keep the party and the voter base together, as well as he rather wants to focus on forcing a general election.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

How does it help the crysis in the country? How does it help to solve Brexit one way or the other? Parliament is just getting more fragmented and perhaps labour are getting some gains compared to the tories but so what? They are still loosing votes.

Corbyn wants to become PM and until now he's been banking on losing fewer votes than the Tories. This was not entirely without reason, as Labour looked much better in the polls until recently.

[JohnRawls]

Corbyn wants to become PM and until now he's been banking on losing fewer votes than the Tories. This was not entirely without reason, as Labour looked much better in the polls until recently.

I know that he wants to be the pm. Doesn't change that he is a political looser.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

I know that he wants to be the pm. Doesn't change that he is a political looser.

You get no disagreement from me on that. All I'm saying is that his strategy wasn't entirely baseless.

[B0ycey]

But I think assuming that he (or any Tory) would lose a vote of confidence the first day in power is over-optimistic. Several Tory MPs would have to vote to lose their jobs. They might get pushed that far eventually, but I think they'd hope that some other outcome would be possible first.

I agree, there be no vote of "no confidence" on day one. But due to the slender numbers, how long does a new Tory PM think he will last on a "No Deal" ticket before even parliamentary members of their own party call for a general election to prevent such action? That being the case, Johnson will be like May. A Zombie PM.

Corbyn wants to become PM and until now he's been banking on losing fewer votes than the Tories. This was not entirely without reason, as Labour looked much better in the polls until recently.

Labour haven't ever looked good at the polls actually. Any other leader would have had a clear advantage now due to the Tory clusterfuck.

Although perhaps there is reason for the fence sitting strategy, but it clearly isn't working. Brexit will be the defining reason for the direction people vote in the next election. The Brexit Party for Leave and Remain for everyone else. I have no doubt that the coalition of remain parties including Labour will form the next government, but I doubt Labour will be the biggest party to allow Corbyn to be PM. And that is why choosing a side today is perhaps the only course of action to take. Thinking there is any chance of forming a one party government after the next election is like catching the wind. Can't happen. So let the Galloways of Labour fuck off to Farage and actually focus on the Labour supporters who voted for Corbyn to be their party leaders and who are also mainly remain supporters anyway. And if not, the Lib Dems can expect great thinks to occur to their polls post October.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

Labour haven't ever looked good at the polls actually. Any other leader would have had a clear advantage now due to the Tory clusterfuck.

They looked better than they do now. I agree that overall Corbyn as a leader is a disadvantage for Labour, but there is still a significant element of unpredictability. The polls looked very bad before the last election as well and Corbyn's favourability rating was abysmal only to shoot up during the election campaign.

[B0ycey]

The polls looked very bad before the last election as well and Corbyn's favourability rating was abysmal only to shoot up during the election campaign.

The polls reflected the local elections that happened a few months prior so were quite reliable actually. Nonetheless Corbyn capitalised not on his success but Mays stupidity in the last general election. She tried to pay for Brexit with what can only be described as the worse manifesto in living history and got punished for it.

Nonetheless I was happy to see that the polls over estimated the Brexit party and under valued the Lib Dems in terms of voting intentions to actual intentions in the European elections. So it appears when push comes to shove, the undecided vote will choose to vote remain and they would rather cast their votes to the Lib Dems than Corbyn. Again, unlining why Corbyns strategy is failing.

[ingliz]

I can't see anything in the act saying...

Article 3(b) is what you are looking for.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

This is how sharply Corbyn's favourability went up before the last election.



I'm not saying he will repeat this, but I wouldn't count on any particular outcome at the moment. If anything, the situation is probably more unpredictable than it was.

Nonetheless I was happy to see that the polls over estimated the Brexit party and under valued the Lib Dems in terms of voting intentions to actual intentions in the European elections.

The Brexit Party's result was pretty close to the polls. It was actually Labour which was most overvalued.

Poll of polls:


Result:

[B0ycey]

This is how sharply Corbyn's favourability went up before the last election.



I'm not saying he will repeat this, but I wouldn't count on any particular outcome at the moment. If anything, the situation is probably more unpredictable than it was.

The reflection of the hike coincides with the Tory manifesto. It was obvious back then that taxing pensioners and homeowners (Tory core voters) was a mistake and yet people still don't understand that this decision to fund Brexit in such a manner was perhaps the biggest mistake from an election campaign ever and has turned out to be the cause for why Brexit is still in limbo today.

Although I do think as the pensioners want Brexit so badly they should pay for it - but perhaps do it once you're in power like what every other PM does would have been better, but I digest.

Nonetheless should we see a spike like that in the next election, my money would be that the line is yellow and certainly not red.

The Brexit Party's result was pretty close to the polls. It was actually Labour which was most overvalued.

Poll of polls:


Result:

Sure Labour were over valued. But so were the Brexit party by 3% and perhaps this is the reason why the commentors were wrong when predicting the Peterborough result. People are more vocal to align their support to leaving the EU than to remain in it when asked but nonetheless still vote accordingly. Although really it is the Lib Dem figures that I am focused on. Should their actual figures be higher than the prediction figures in a general election they will be the party who will form the coalition and not Labour.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

The Brexit party result was within 2% of the polls.

And there's plenty of volatility even now. After Yougov having the LibDems ahead a week or so ago, their latest general election poll looks like this:

[Rich]

I know that he wants to be the pm. Doesn't change that he is a political looser.

Looser? Corbyn's an amazing political winner. His job is not to become Prime minister, its certainly not to end Britain's Brexit drama. His job is to hold and consolidate the far left's control of the Labour party. I see Corbyn and his small band of brothers (and sisters) as rather like Captain Frost and his detachment of 1st Para at Arnhem bridge. Outnumbered, outgunned, deep inside enemy territory, bravely trying to hold on against all the odds, until the arrival of the deselections. In fact Corbyn may see it as his duty to take one for the (far-left) team. To suffer the slings and arrows of out raged Remainers so has he can hand over to RLB.

[Prosthetic Conscience]

I can't see anything in the act saying...

Article 3(b) is what you are looking for.

Well, no:

3)An early parliamentary general election is also to take place if—
(a)the House of Commons passes a motion in the form set out in subsection (4), and
(b)the period of 14 days after the day on which that motion is passed ends without the House passing a motion in the form set out in subsection (5).
(4)The form of motion for the purposes of subsection (3)(a) is—
“That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government.”

(5)The form of motion for the purposes of subsection (3)(b) is—
“That this House has confidence in Her Majesty’s Government.”

It doesn't say anything about offering opposition parties a chance to be "Her Majesty's Government".

[ingliz]

Well, no...

Well, yes.

You appear to be unacquainted with the niceties of the Fixed-Term Parliament Act and its implications for British parliamentary practice. There is nothing to stop a Tory minority government being replaced by a Labour-led administration. Indeed, this second government could itself be replaced without an election.

Nothing in the Act restricts the number of times you could go through the merry-go-round of governments falling and being replaced. The Act now constitutes the only way in which the House of Commons can declare its lack of confidence in the government, so that all the previous conventions about governments having to resign if defeated in a vote of confidence worded in a variety of ways or just declared by the participants to be a motion of confidence no longer apply.

"Her Majesty's Government" gets 14 days to get a motion of confidence passed, and if they can't, then it's a general election.

No.

Example: How an opposition party might form a government without there being a general election if the 'government' refuses to allow an Opposition motion.

"A motion could be moved on an opposition or back-bench day in the form ‘That an humble Address be presented to Her Majesty, That she will be graciously pleased to dismiss her current ministers and to appoint X as Prime Minister’. If such a motion passed, the monarch could be confident not only that the current government had lost the confidence of the House but also that a specific person (presumably the Leader of the Opposition, but another person could be proposed) already commanded that confidence. In effect, we would find ourselves with the sensible rule in Article 67 of the German Basic Law that the Bundestag can only declare no confidence in one Chancellor by declaring confidence in another Chancellor."

David Howarth, Professor of Law and Public Policy, University of Cambridge

[B0ycey]

Any Tory rebels that enact a no confidence vote on Johnson will not align themselves to Corbyn, that I am sure of. We will have a general election. Something Corbyn is asking for anyways. I doubt he'd even consider a premiership through the back door.

@Kaiserschmarrn, 3% is a significant number of voters. So much so that if the Brexit party had 3% extra in the vote share they would have more votes than Labour on Peterbrough.

Nonetheless imagine the difference your YouGov poll would look like if you reduced The Brexit Party by 3 points and Labour by 5 and increased the Lib Dems by 5 points and the Greens by 3, to mirror that of the European election. Although really I suspect the Lib Dems rise in a potential surge in popularity is more likely to occur when a realisation of a No Deal Brexit is facing the electorate rather than during a period of a buffer in terms of a delay.

[Rich]

Nothing in the Act restricts the number of times you could go through the merry-go-round of governments falling and being replaced.

That may be so, but in this parliament there's no chance of anything but a Tory government. Even if there were more Tory defections and the Tory-DUP alliance lost its overall majority, there's no way that the other parties are going to support a Corbyn government.

While the fixed term parliament act certainly weakens the governments ability to force its legislation through, by use of the confidence vote, in practice it actually does little to stop early General Elections. Maybe, maybe there might be a scenario where say the Lib Dems held the balance of power and decided to switch their support when their previous senior party wanted a general election, but on the whole if the major governing party asks for an early election, its politically impossible for the major opposition party to not vote for a General Election.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

@Kaiserschmarrn, 3% is a significant number of voters. So much so that if the Brexit party had 3% extra in the vote share they would have more votes than Labour on Peterbrough.

Nonetheless imagine the difference your YouGov poll would look like if you reduced The Brexit Party by 3 points and Labour by 5 and increased the Lib Dems by 5 points and the Greens by 3, to mirror that of the European election. Although really I suspect the Lib Dems rise in a potential surge in popularity is more likely to occur when a realisation of a No Deal Brexit is facing the electorate rather than during a period of a buffer in terms of a delay.

It's 2% and there's no reason to believe that the discrepancy between EU election polls and results will be replicated in a general election, although I'm fine with Remainers being very confident about it.

[ingliz]

I doubt he'd even consider a premiership through the back door.

I doubt it too.

But stranger things have happened.

Consider how much time Boris will waste after the summer recess and what the noises coming from the EU will be?

With no extension on offer and a default no deal looming, it could force the issue.