[Beren]

My understanding is the security pact between Russia and Armenia doesn't apply to Nagorno-Karobach, which is considered Armenian-occupied Azeri land.

It may be old news but still:

In October 2013, the chief commander of Russia's 102nd military base Andrey Ruzinsky told Russia's official military newspaper, "If Azerbaijan decides to restore jurisdiction over Nagorno-Karabakh by force, the [Russian] military base may join in the armed conflict in accordance with the Russian Federation’s obligations within the framework of the Collective Security Treaty Organization."

[Atlantis]

@Rancid

Russia is an ally of both Azerbaijan and Armenia. At best, it can only supply weapons to Armenia but can't provide any open support. Basically, as much as Russia sees it, there is no point in intervening since there is nothing to gain. If Russia supports one side then the other side will just cut off Russia. So Russia will just by silent as if nothing is really happening.

When push comes to shove, Russia will help Armenia. The security treaty between Armenia and Russia requires Russia to intervene on Armenia's side. But Russia's security guarantee does not extend to Nagorno Karabakh. In other words, as long as Armenia proper does not come under direct attack, Russia doesn't have to intervene.

In this region, Russia sees itself as is what we call Ordnungsmacht in German. There is no good English translation. Literally it means a power that guarantees order and stability. Military conflict is the opposite of order and stability. In other words, to fulfill its role as Ordnungsmacht, Russia has to reestablish peace between the countries under its influence. To appear as honest broker, Russia has to behave as if it were neutral.

Russia does have a military base in Armenia and Russian MIGs were seen over Yerevan since the conflict started. The Russians are undoubtedly increasing their air defenses in Armenia.

There are other factors that come into play.

1) Prior to the current conflict, there were protests against the Russian presence in Armenia following the regime change in Yerevan a couple of years ago. If Armenia wants Russian assistance, Putin will undoubtedly press for closer relations like in Belarus.

2) If the conflict were to escalate, Armenia could easily destroy the pipeline transporting Azerbaijani oil to Turkey. That would hurt Turkey and Azerbaijan and benefit Russia.

3) Putin isn't going to like that Erdogan sends Islamist fighters into what Putin considers as Russia's backyard.

[Atlantis]

The unrepentant genocidal maniacs in Turkey are once again at their old games in their attempt to reestablish the Ottoman empire.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan accused Turkey of “once again advancing on a genocidal path” and said Ankara’s military was directly leading an offensive by Azeri forces against ethnic Armenian forces around Nagorno-Karabakh.

Dozens of people have been reported killed and hundreds wounded since Sunday in fighting that has renewed concern about stability in the South Caucasus, a corridor for pipelines carrying oil and gas to world markets.

The presidents of France, Russia and the United States called on Thursday for an immediate ceasefire between Azerbaijan and ethnic Armenian forces around Nagorno-Karabakh, but Turkey, an Azeri ally, said the three big powers should have no role in peace moves.

“The situation is much more serious (than previous clashes in 2016). It would be more appropriate to compare it with what happened in 1915, when more than 1.5 million Armenians were slaughtered during the first genocide of the 20th century,” Pashinyan told Le Figaro newspaper in an interview published late on Thursday

“The Turkish state, which continues to deny the past, is once again venturing down a genocidal path,”

The comments are likely to provoke Ankara. Turkey accepts that many Armenians living in the Ottoman Empire were killed in clashes with Ottoman forces during World War One, but contests the figures and denies that the killings were systematically orchestrated and constitute a genocide.

Pashinyan, who offered no evidence for his assertions, said Turkey had sent thousands of Syrian mercenaries to the region and Turkish military officers were directly involved in leading the Azeri offensive.

“The world must be aware of what is going on here,” he said.

“Turkey’s wish is to strengthen its role and influence in the South Caucasus. It’s pursuing the dream of building an empire imitating the Sultanate and it is embarking on a path that could set the region ablaze.”

Armenian PM says Turkey taking new genocidal path

[Atlantis]

Ridiculous claims.

Oh, are they? Maybe according to AKP propaganda, but the whole world sees things differently. Here just a few examples:

The Guardian confirms three deaths of Syrians in Azerbaijan. The paper was contracted by Turkish security companies and flown in by Turkish military aircraft: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ers-killed

The Foreign Ministry of Russia has made a statement acknowledging reports of "illegally armed groups" from Libya and Syria: https://www.mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/ne ... id/4363834

France acknowledges Turkey of sending Syrian mercenaries: https://in.reuters.com/article/armenia- ... 6M4VE?il=0

Statement by the Foreign Ministry of Iran acknowledging the presence of terrorists and condemning it: https://www.khabaronline.ir/news/1438346

BBC Arabic: "Armenia and Azerbaijan: BBC Arabic talks to Syrian fighters on the line of fire between the two countries": https://www.bbc.com/arabic/middleeast-54346711

Riam Dalati (BBC Syria journalist) states that his contacts in Aleppo and Idlib confirm multiple deaths of Syrians in Azerbaijan:

Riam Dalati (BBC Syria journalist) shares photo published by Jesr Press (Syrian newspaper) of wounded Syrian in Azerbaijan, one of reportedly 30:

Hussein Akoush (Syrian contributor for the Guardian, the Telegraph, TRT) confirms that a personal acquaintance from his village (Atarib) who was a Tahrir al-Sham terrorist left for Azerbaijan 1 week ago. Another contact from a nearby town (Kafr Halab) confirmed a death of one of their villagers in Azerbaijan:

Reuters: "Turkey deploying Syrian fighters to help ally Azerbaijan, two fighters say" https://www.reuters.com/article/us-arme ... SKBN26J25A

[noemon]

Armenia is closer to Greece and consequently the EU than it is to Russia. That is why Erdogan is betting that Russia will stay aloof. The Armenian military officers are trained in Greece, there are special visa regimes for Armenians almost on par with diaspora Greeks and Armenians in general prefer to go to Greece than to Russia. Armenia has been wanting to sub-contract the Greek military and airforce for the defence of Armenian borders for years now. If it weren't for the financial crisis, this would be true.
I went to school with lots of Armenians and Armenians consider themselves and are considered by Greeks as pretty much the same thing. Turkey is trying to score another nationalist point after Erdogan's warmongering against Greece proved futile.

Atlantis is right on the money here, but he is certainly ignoring the pro-Turkish role of Germany that is continuing unabated. Germany is at this moment Turkey's greatest enabler by blocking sanctions against her and consequently permitting Erdogan from running around like a mad dog. Germany must bring herself in line with France, Greece and the rest of Europe and finish this charlatan off economically.

[Atlantis]

@noemon, Germany is pretty neutral on this. There is Hungary and a couple of others who are pro-Turkey and pro-Azerbaijan. Germany wants a negotiated settlement. That's why it is trying to avoid a belligerent attitude. Anyways, France has assumed that role. Nobody is served by an actual war with Turkey. That's why the good cop, bad cop routine assumed by Germany and France, respectively, is best for the time being for keeping the negotiated option open. That is best too for Greece. In an actual war, Greece would suffer most.

As to Nagorno Karabakh (NK), that is Russia's not the EU's business. Perhaps the EU could offer to mediate or send humanitarian aid, but military aid is out of the question. Anyways, the Armenians together with the Armenian diaspora are quite capable of defending NK. And if the fighting were to spread to Armenia proper, the Russians would intervene.

In the meantime, Erdogan is increasing his belligerent rhetoric. Having threatened Armenia, one of the last remaining Christian enclaves in the region, he has now set his sight on Jerusalem.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Thursday implied that Jerusalem belongs to Turkey, referring to the Ottoman Empire’s control over the city for much of the modern era.

“In this city that we had to leave in tears during the First World War, it is still possible to come across traces of the Ottoman resistance. So Jerusalem is our city, a city from us,” he told Turkish lawmakers during a major policy speech in Ankara. “Our first qibla [direction of prayer in Islam] al-Aqsa and the Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem are the symbolic mosques of our faith. In addition, this city is home to the holy places of Christianity and Judaism.”

The Ottoman Empire ruled over Jerusalem from 1516 to 1917. Modern Turkey, its successor state, has long stressed its enduring connection to the holy city, regularly condemning Israel’s alleged efforts to “judaize” it and the US administration’s December 2017 recognition of it as Israel’s capital.

Jerusalem has been the capital of Israel since the country’s founding, and the Jewish people have thousands of years of history in the city, backed up by extensive archaeological finds.

During a lengthy speech at the opening of the Turkish parliament’s new legislative session, Erdoğan spent several minutes lamenting the fate of Jerusalem and the Palestinians’ plight.

“The issue of Jerusalem is not an ordinary geopolitical problem for us. First of all, the current physical appearance of the Old City, which is the heart of Jerusalem, was built by Suleiman the Magnificent, with its walls, bazaar, and many buildings. Our ancestors showed their respect for centuries by keeping this city in high esteem.”

The Palestinian people have been living in Jerusalem “for thousands of years,” but they were occupied and had their rights violated, the Turkish leader went on.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/jerusalem-is-our-city-turkeys-erdogan-declares/

Interestingly, Israel is supporting Azerbaijan because of Azerbaijani oil and Israeli weapons shipments to the country.

[noemon]

@noemon, Germany is pretty neutral on this. There is Hungary and a couple of others who are pro-Turkey and pro-Azerbaijan. Germany wants a negotiated settlement. That's why it is trying to avoid a belligerent attitude. Anyways, France has assumed that role. Nobody is served by an actual war with Turkey. That's why the good cop, bad cop routine assumed by Germany and France, respectively, is best for the time being for keeping the negotiated option open. That is best too for Greece. In an actual war, Greece would suffer most.

Greece, Cyprus, Armenia and others are currently suffering largely because of German inactivity. The "good, bad cop" routine is only workable during peacetime, Turkey is already at war, lives are already lost, inactivity merely legitimises her war rather than "being neutral". You said it yourself earlier, appeasement does not work here. There is no excuse for playing good cop with Erdogan, that is the previous policy when Turkey was joining and behaving, and at that stage it was the correct policy but now we are at a very different stage with Turkey and the European policy as a whole must be crystal, both for Europe and the world.

[Atlantis]

@noemon, pissing at Erdogan may be emotionally satisfying, but it doesn't solve geopolitical problems. Greek politicians understand that too. Turkey is here to stay. It won't just disappear into thin air. Thus, we'll have to find a modus vivendi to live with Turkey. Turks and Greeks have to find a way of living in the region.

The problems in Libya, Syria, Iraq, Azerbaijan, etc., weren't created by Turkey. Most are due to Western imperialism. Erdogan is just exploiting these conflicts. He maybe a wannabe Hitler, but is miles from being a real Hitler. Turkey just doesn't have the means to become a big power. The current imperial overreach will only have one effect: it'll damage Turkey, both politically and economically.

Erdogan needs these conflicts to distract from problems at home, including a Covid crisis, a failing economy and a falling currency, which are all due to Erdogan's mismanagement. A belligerent attitude towards Turkey serves Erdogan's purpose in showing that Turkey is under siege by hostile foreign powers.

We don't need belligerence or military conflict, it's quite easy to squeeze the Turkish economy. A little travel warning here and there, new EU regulations on pipelines feeding oil via Turkey into Europe, etc., would do the trick.

[noemon]

Economic sanctions is what it should be done indeed and what Germany is blocking. That will put the brakes on Erdogan.

[Atlantis]

@noemon, most sanctions are purely symbolic, like the sanctions against Belarus. They just target a few individuals. What I'm talking about are measures that will have a real economic impact. That'll get Erdogan's attention. And that the EU and/or its members can do anytime without any demonstrative belligerence and without poisoning the peace process.

'Turkey has a clear objective of reinstating the Turkish empire', Armenian PM says

Heavy fighting escalated this week between Armenian and Azerbaijan forces over the disputed separatist region of Nagorno-Karabakh. On Friday, global leaders renewed calls for a ceasefire with French President Emmanuel Macron pressing for a fresh round of peace talks. In an interview with FRANCE 24’s Gulliver Cragg in Yerevan, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan sat down to discuss the crisis embroiling his country.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan told FRANCE 24 that Turkey would continue its expansionist footprint and its goal of “the genocide of Armenians”.

“Armenia is the last obstacle in the way of Turkey and their expansion towards the north, and the east,” Mr Pashinyan said.

He pointed to recent evidence of Turkish aggression in the Mediterranean Sea towards Greece and involvement in Syria and Iraq.

“Turkey has a clear objective of reinstating the Turkish Empire. Don’t be surprised if that policy succeeds here, don’t be surprised if they attempt to incorporate into their empire not only the Greek islands but expand further into continental Europe. If Turkey succeeds in this, wait for them in Vienna.”

The fighting in and around Nagorno-Karabakh is the biggest escalation in years in the decades-long dispute over the region, which lies within Azerbaijan but is controlled by local ethnic Armenian forces backed by Armenia.

A group of leaders in Turkey, both in government and in the opposition, does indeed have that objective. That doesn't mean they can succeed. In fact, there is not a snow-ball's chance in hell that they'll lay siege to Vienna any time soon.

Propaganda is all good and fine, but the Armenian PM is overdoing things a little. Turkey will have to pay the price for its imperial overreach. There is no way it can succeed.

By bussing Syrian fighters to Azerbaijan, Turkey shot itself in the foot. The whole world condemns it.

Moreover, the Syrian fighters are not motivated to fight against Armenians, they just want the money. The Armenians, on the other hand, are fighting with their backs against the wall. They are defending their ancestral homes, they know they'll have to leave if the region is taken by Azerbaijan. To them, the alternative to fighting is exile or death.

[Istanbuller]

Germany is doing the right thing by blocking Greece's childish requests. It restores my faith in German democracy and German nobility.

German- Turkish alliance would be perfect if we were eager to establish a union. We have many similarities even when it comes down to having a large foreign ethnic population. Such alliance would be a potential new Roman state. Germans take the West and Turkish take the East.

[noemon]

@noemon, most sanctions are purely symbolic, like the sanctions against Belarus. They just target a few individuals. What I'm talking about are measures that will have a real economic impact. That'll get Erdogan's attention. And that the EU and/or its members can do anytime without any demonstrative belligerence and without poisoning the peace process.

It is precisely those real economic measures that Germany is blocking arguing in favour of symbolic sanctions against individuals giving carte blanche to Erdogan to behave as he does, since the Turkish economy is unaffected by EU sanctions due to German insistence. Germany needs to change her policy and permit the use of all available peaceful means in our European arsenal to ground Erdogan. Europe has a duty to herself and to global international relations to stand up against this nonsense.

51 Armenian people reported dead today.

[Atlantis]

@noemon, you are just as hot-headed as the Turks. If we don't have a shooting war already its because you can't hijack the EU for your partisanship. The EU works by consensus and not by your pathological hatred.

[MadMonk]

Germany is doing the right thing by blocking Greece's childish requests. It restores my faith in German democracy and German nobility.

German- Turkish alliance would be perfect if we were eager to establish a union. We have many similarities even when it comes down to having a large foreign ethnic population. Such alliance would be a potential new Roman state. Germans take the West and Turkish take the East.

Ohhh my god, really? I'm even spelling it out because 'OMG' isn't enough for the severity of disgust, not in the immorality, but in the complete lack of any kind of sense this horse shit comment deserves. It has been tried before. In fact, many times before. There are not many Germans or Turks alive that hopefully understands that each time it has failed.

What has changed that this time it will succeed?

The chances have gone from bad to worse each time. The developments of this world have not changed in your favour. Ever expanding domination by means of terror never truly went out of style as we all would have liked to belive, merely controlling the source of public information, telling us properly who the bad guys are and the other by contrast.

So, you are playing a high-risk negotiating position, counting on your adversaries to back down? You are counting on that they can control the political developments here in the West or anywhere else?

Ok. Good luck. I actually hope you win. Enough face-saving cover and some concessions. I hope that some part of you understands why.

[annatar1914]

Germany is doing the right thing by blocking Greece's childish requests. It restores my faith in German democracy and German nobility.

German- Turkish alliance would be perfect if we were eager to establish a union. We have many similarities even when it comes down to having a large foreign ethnic population. Such alliance would be a potential new Roman state. Germans take the West and Turkish take the East.

That's the idea @Istanbuller , that's the idea. But it will be stopped.

[Atlantis]

Ohhh my god, really? I'm even spelling it out because 'OMG' isn't enough for the severity of disgust, not in the immorality, but in the complete lack of any kind of sense this horse shit comment deserves. It has been tried before. In fact, many times before. There are not many Germans or Turks alive that hopefully understands that each time it has failed.

Before Germany allied with the Turks France allied with the Ottomans. The brief alliance between imperial Germany and Turkey was just a short interlude without consequences. An accident of history since the British and French Empires hadn't left any other options. Just like the Americans allied with the Saudis because the British had already occupied most of the rest.

[annatar1914]

Before Germany allied with the Turks France allied with the Ottomans. The brief alliance between imperial Germany and Turkey was just a short interlude without consequences. An accident of history since the British and French Empires hadn't left any other options. Just like the Americans allied with the Saudis because the British had already occupied most of the rest.

''Accident of History'' my ass. Germany and Turkey have always had similar instincts, and Germany had designs on the Middle East and it's resources with it's ''Berlin to Baghdad'' railway plans. Turkey wanted a revival with the strongest nation in Europe as an ally. Nothing has really changed since then.

[noemon]

@noemon, you are just as hot-headed as the Turks. If we don't have a shooting war already its because you can't hijack the EU for your partisanship. The EU works by consensus and not by your pathological hatred.

You are by far the most nationalist member that has passed from this forum in all its history. There has never been another member that has failed to criticise his/her own nation at least once. You even take offence from political conversation and believe that attacking me personally magically denies pro-Turkish German policy. German support for Turkey is costing lives, it destroys the EU internally and it destroys the EU in the world as she proves divided once again. Germany for the millionth time the past decades is putting German exports ahead of the EU, ahead of international principles and law preferring to appease Erdogan instead of imposing sanctions on him even when he directly crossed into EU territory. If Erdogan can run amok even inside the EU, then who won't? Germany is doing more harm to the international legal order than Trump's America. Imagine that. Germany letting Turkey get away with invading EU territory is sending a signal across the world that Europe will permit anything and she is permitting the loss of Armenian life as we speak and that effectively because of German refusal to take meaningful action against Turkey.

There is a very clear consensus regarding Erdogan's actions that Germany is refusing to become a part of. You should realise at some point that lives lost are more important than Germany's fake PR in a forum.

[Atlantis]

@noemon, if I were a nationalist, I would support the AfD and demand the destruction of the EU. Yet, I'm the only member of this forum who actively supports the EU, as can easily be seen from my posting history. Thus, your accusations are totally absurd. We can only guess that you are motived by an extreme sense of jingoism and spite.

I often disagree with German politics; however, there is no denying that Germany is the only EU member that has consistently supported the EU. As such, I support German policy, not as nationalist. Without Germany there would be no EU. You, on the other hand, still haven't arrived in the EU even after more than 40 years of membership. The EU is based on Franco-German reconciliation and the peaceful resolution of conflicts. You cannot make peace with your neighbors and are always ready to bully smaller nations. Greece has consistently used its membership as leverage against the EU. You have vetoed Spanish and Portuguese membership after these countries emerged from the dictatorship. You have destabilized the EU with the debt crises and the refugee crisis. You are ready to stab democratic protesters in Belarus in the back to further your narrow nationalistic objectives.

I have no doubt that Germany will be solidary with Greece in the current conflict no matter how much you are pissing at the Germans. Germans have learned that your type of jingoism doesn't lead to anything good. Since a military conflict needs to be avoided, Germany is right to pursue of peaceful solution.

This thread is about the Armenian/Azerbaijani conflict. You have turned it into one of your regular anti-German rants. You are off-topic and I won't reply to any more your baseless attacks.

'Accident of History'' my ass. Germany and Turkey have always had similar instincts, and Germany had designs on the Middle East and it's resources with it's ''Berlin to Baghdad'' railway plans. Turkey wanted a revival with the strongest nation in Europe as an ally. Nothing has really changed since then.

That is an accident of history. If the British and French hadn't occupied most of the region, Germany could have cooperated with other countries. As it is, Turkey was the only major country not yet under their control. Considering that the "Berlin to Baghdad" railway was never built because London knew how to prevent it, the only remaining trace of the German empire in the region is a fictitious railway. Remarkably, to you a fiction is more important than the dozens of very real conflicts in the ME and the world the British empire has left behind.

[noemon]

Germany is preventing the EU from imposing economic sanctions on Turkey, thus enabling Turkish aggression in the EU and outside of it. Turkish attacks on Armenia is a direct cause of German appeasement towards Erdogan. Merkel being Erdogan's whisperer I wouldn't put it past her to have suggested to Erdogan: "Please leave Greece alone, they are EU and you are exposing my pro-Turkish policies for the world to see, please go bother Armenia instead and we'll put the EU on the fence enabling you to run free". Regardless if Merkel actually literally suggested something like that, Turkey did get this message from Germany anyway.

German policy is wrong, no matter how much extreme German nationalists like yourself believe that Germany can never do anything wrong, and must change before it becomes the direct cause of WW3.