[Atlantis]

We are one step closer to Russia entering the war. The Azerbaijanis claimed to have downed the Russian helicopter by mistake, but it could have been downed by Turkish forces too. Anyways, since it was well into Armenia proper, it constitutes a casus belli for Russia to enter the fighting on Armenia's side.

Nagorno-Karabakh: Russian helicopter shot down over Armenia

A Russian military helicopter has been shot down over Armenia, with two crew members killed and one injured, Russia's Defense Ministry said on Monday.

In a statement, the ministry said the Mi-24 attack helicopter was downed by fire from a man-portable air-defense system close to the border with Azerbaijan.

Later, Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry issued a statement admitting to having shot down the helicopter, saying it was an accident.

"The Azerbaijani side offers an apology to the Russian side in connection with this tragic incident," the statement said, adding that the attack was "not aimed against" Moscow. It offered to pay compensation.

The incident comes as Armenia, a Russian ally, and Azerbaijan continue to fight over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is within Azerbaijan's territory by law but has been under the control of local ethnic Armenian forces since 1994.

The Foreign Ministry statement from Azerbaijan said Azerbaijani forces had decided to open fire owing to a spike in fighting with the Armenian separatists.

Military allies
The crash reportedly occurred near the border with the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, some 70 kilometers (43 miles) from the border to Nagorno-Karabakh.

Armenian authorities said the helicopter had crashed "in a gorge" near the village of Yeraskh.

Despite its military alliance with Armenia, Russia has said it will intervene in the conflict only if fighting reached Armenian soil. It maintains a permanent military presence there.

This is a real war and thousands of people are getting killed. There is great suffering on both sides. You jingoism is disgusting.

[MadMonk]

The Azeris do not wish to piss of the Russians here. Russia has a foreign policy of part pragmatism and part projection of military capability. If they commit to actual fighting, they will aim to inflict damage on Azeri infrastructure and industry, if necessary even Turkish targets (I doubt the Russians would like to escalate a conflict in their own backyard so doubtful on the later).

Russian involvement would preclude NATO getting involved (if we don't count possibly supplying Azerbaijan/Turkey with intelligence).

UN security council would be fractured.

Syria, Libya, Azerbaijan/Armenia... Smells like there is a next target...

[Atlantis]

Russia brokered a deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Armenia will return most of the Azeri territory it occupied, while ethnic Armenians will be allowed to return to their homes in Nagorno Karabakh. Azerbaijanis will get the right to travel across Armenia between their mainland and their enclave in Nakhichevan, while Armenians will get a corridor to travel between Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh. Russian peacekeeper will be deployed to monitor the deal.

There are protests in Yerevan and the PM is under pressure from Armenians unhappy with the deal, but I think considering the situation on the battlefield, this is probably the best Armenians can hope for.

President of the Republic of Azerbaijan,

Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia

and the President of the Russian Federation

We, President of the Republic of Azerbaijan I. G. Aliyev, Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia Nikolai Pashinyan and President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin announced the following:

A complete ceasefire and all hostilities in the zone of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are announced from 00:00 hours Moscow time on November 10, 2020. The Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia, hereinafter referred to as the Parties, stop at their positions.

The Aghdam region and the territories held by the Armenian Party in the Gazakh region of the Republic of Azerbaijan shall be returned to the Azerbaijan Party until November 20, 2020.

Along the line of contact in Nagorno-Karabakh and along the Lachin corridor, a peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation is deployed in the amount of 1,960 servicemen with small arms, 90 armored personnel carriers, 380 units of automobile and special equipment.

The peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation is being deployed in parallel with the withdrawal of the Armenian armed forces. The duration of the stay of the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian Federation is 5 years, with automatic extension for the next 5-year periods, if none of the Parties declares 6 months before the expiration of the period of intention to terminate the application of this provision.

In order to increase the effectiveness of control over the implementation of the agreements by the Parties to the conflict, a peacekeeping center is being deployed to control the ceasefire.

The Republic of Armenia will return the Kelbajar region to the Republic of Azerbaijan by November 15, 2020, and the Lachin region by December 1, 2020, leaving behind the Lachin corridor (5 km wide), which will ensure the connection of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia and at the same time not will affect the city of Shusha. * * By agreement of the Parties, in the next three years, a plan for the construction of a new traffic route along the Lachin corridor, providing communication between Stepanakert and Armenia, with the subsequent redeployment of the Russian peacekeeping contingent to protect this route will be determined. * * The Republic of Azerbaijan guarantees traffic safety along the Lachin corridor of citizens, vehicles and goods in both directions.

Internally displaced persons and refugees are returning to the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh and adjacent areas under the control of the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.

There is an exchange of prisoners of war and other detained persons and bodies of the dead.

All economic and transport links in the region are unblocked. The Republic of Armenia provides transport links between the western regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic in order to organize the unimpeded movement of citizens, vehicles and goods in both directions. Control over transport communication is carried out by the bodies of the Border Guard Service of the FSB of Russia.

By agreement of the Parties, the construction of new transport communications linking the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic with the western regions of Azerbaijan will be provided.

November 2020

The president The Republic of Azerbaijan

Prime Minister Republic of Armenia

The president Russian Federation

[Vanasalus]

We are one step closer to Russia entering the war. The Azerbaijanis claimed to have downed the Russian helicopter by mistake, but it could have been downed by Turkish forces too. Anyways, since it was well into Armenia proper, it constitutes a casus belli for Russia to enter the fighting on Armenia's side.

Though it may sound a little bit sexist, we have an old saying in Turkey appropriate for describing this situation.

"If you rely on someone else's cock in your wedding night, you probably end up as a bride."

This Armenian made mess, so called second Karabakh war, with its background, inception, progress and final resolution, offers lots of valuable lessons to see for everyone with a brain.

There are protests in Yerevan and the PM is under pressure from Armenians unhappy with the deal, but I think considering the situation on the battlefield, this is probably the best Armenians can hope for.

I concur. The most important issues for my part were 1- The reinstitution of displaced Azerbaijanis back into their homes and 2- The protection of Karabakhi Armenians in their homes.

This agreement provides both.

That said, many Armenians will view it as a total capitulation no matter what.

Meh.

Let delusional freaks rot in their own delusions.

[noemon]

Taking into account that that Armenians have been genocided by Turks, that this fresh war was started by Azerbaijan at the instigation of Turkey and the fact that the Turkish army will be deployed in Nagorno-Karabagh, one would say that Armenians have a very good reason to reject having their homes & lives policed by the Turkish army. And who would blame them of course...having the Turkish army monitoring Armenians in N-K is the same as having the Nazi German army monitoring Israeli Tel-Aviv.

Though it may sound a little bit sexist, we have an old saying in Turkey appropriate for describing this situation. "If you rely on someone else's cock in your wedding night, you probably end up as a bride."

Sure, but that would be more true for Azerbaijan than it is for Armenia. Azerbaijan is already a Turkish proxy bride.

[Vanasalus]

Sure, but that would be more true for Azerbaijan than it is for Armenia. Azerbaijan is already a Turkish proxy bride.

Well, I was thinking of Russian-Armenian relations in the context of Turkish saying I refer.

Hell, it also offers nice lessons to Greece, pampered by West, pushing for its maximalist and unrealistic enmity towards Turkey.

As for Azerbaijan... Well, it has won the war, liberated its lands, and upheld its territorial integrity.

If there is a substantial Turkish effect in this outcome as many claim, it seems to me more like a gangbang.

[Atlantis]

"If you rely on someone else's cock in your wedding night, you probably end up as a bride."

True, Azerbaijan relied on Turkey dick.

This Armenian made mess, so called second Karabakh war, with its background, inception, progress and final resolution, offers lots of valuable lessons to see for everyone with a brain.

= political infighting

Armenia was able to conquer Azeri land in the 90s because of Azeri political infighting. Today, Azerbaijan was able to reconquer said land because of infighting on the other side, namely, Armenians got rid of the Russian Mafia to try out democracy. Even though the new leaders in Yerevan went out of their way to demonstrate pro-Russian sentiments, it obviously wasn't enough to sugar Putin enough. Putin, like Trump, prefers to deal with dictators. Democracy is too unpredictable for his taste.

I concur. The most important issues for my part were 1- The reinstitution of displaced Azerbaijanis back into their homes and 2- The protection of Karabakhi Armenians in their homes.

Unfortunately, many of the ethnically cleansed Armenians won't be able to return to their homes now occupied by Azerbaijan.

The other important outcome is that both Armenians and Azerbaijanis get transit rights across the other side to connect with their respective enclaves.

This is the pragmatic solution that's always been proposed and never been accepted because it doesn't address the issue of sovereignty. Azerbaijan claims sovereignty over Nagorno Karabakh, while the citizens of Nagorno Karabakh want independence. So, we can expect hostilities to break out again sooner or later.

If there is a substantial Turkish effect in this outcome as many claim, it seems to me more like a gangbang.

There is somebody who knows the sexual preferences of his people.

[Patrickov]

Looks like God allows bad people win big in 2020. First China, then Belarus, and now we have this.

[Atlantis]

Looks like God allows bad people win big in 2020. First China, then Belarus, and now we have this.

It's never just good and bad. There is always a lot in between, on both sides.

For all who think that war is heroic, have a look at the hell of war:

Vision Of Hell: The Aftermath Of Fighting Around Key Nagorno-Karabakh City

[Oxymoron]

Only one who won in this conflict is Russia.

[Atlantis]

Only one who won in this conflict is Russia.

Not really. Putin just reestablished a fragile peace in a region in which Russia sees itself as the hegemonic power. Failure to achieve peace would have been a failure for Russia's role. Yet, in the process, Putin had to accept that Turkey encroaches on what Russia considers its own backyard. As far as peace is concerned, it should be welcome by all sides. For the rest, nobody wins, except perhaps Azerbaijan, which gets its territory back. Armenians lose, not without reason. They should have:

1) prepared for modern drone-warfare, or
2) make concessions at the negotiation table before the war, and/or
3) bind themselves more closely to Russia so as to get more comprehensive support.

[Oxymoron]

Not really. Putin just reestablished a fragile peace in a region in which Russia sees itself as the hegemonic power. Failure to achieve peace would have been a failure for Russia's role. Yet, in the process, Putin had to accept that Turkey encroaches on what Russia considers its own backyard. As far as peace is concerned, it should be welcome by all sides. For the rest, nobody wins, except perhaps Azerbaijan, which gets its territory back. Armenians lose, not without reason. They should have:

1) prepared for modern drone-warfare, or
2) make concessions at the negotiation table before the war, and/or
3) bind themselves more closely to Russia so as to get more comprehensive support.

So there are 4000 Russian peacekeepers there now, a step closer to more control over the region. They now get to become one of the King Makers, a strategy not unlike their predecessors the Byzantines employed in the region. As you mention Armenia learned they need closer relation with Russia, also playing into Russian goals. The Azeri, must now also play ball with Russia as to avoid them siding with the Armenians, who might want to retake this land. I think this was a stroke of brilliant Bismark like diplomacy.

[noemon]

3) bind themselves more closely to Russia so as to get more comprehensive support.

They tried to bind themselves to Europe and they were let down.

I hope that saying that will not add insult to injury for Armenian people.

It seems that reports that the Turkish army will be deployed were false propaganda coming from Turkey. Russia will be the sole military presence in Nagorno-Karabah. That is why Russia did not intervene in favour of Armenia cause her loss suited her better as it now gave them leverage in both countries.

[Oxymoron]

They tried to bind themselves to Europe and they were let down.

I hope that saying that will not add insult to injury for Armenian people.

Armenians are the football of history, they are like Christian Jews

[Atlantis]

They tried to bind themselves to Europe and they were let down.

Europe does not have an army and has no means of projecting geopolitical power by military means.

In Western Europe, only France and the UK would have the means to do that. If the Brits were to intervene, they probably would intervene on the side of Azerbaijan because of oil. Does France want to fight a war in the Caucasus in between Russia and Turkey? Most certainly not. Thus your proposition is pointless.

[noemon]

Europe does not need an army or military intervention to make Erdogan stand down, neither now nor in the past several months.

She just needs to stand united and use economic sanctions. Europe stands totally idle.
There is no excuse, or finger-pointing at the US.

[Atlantis]

So there are 4000 Russian peacekeepers there now, a step closer to more control over the region. They now get to become one of the King Makers, a strategy not unlike their predecessors the Byzantines employed in the region. As you mention Armenia learned they need closer relation with Russia, also playing into Russian goals. The Azeri, must now also play ball with Russia as to avoid them siding with the Armenians, who might want to retake this land. I think this was a stroke of brilliant Bismark like diplomacy.

Wasn't it less then 2,000 Russian peacekeepers? Anyways, Russia just reestablished the status antes. Thus, Russia does not gain anything. The Russians also already have a base in Armenia. Since Turkey gained influence in the region, there is a net loss for Russia.

@noemon, you may be itching for war with Turkey, but I don't think that's very smart. Turkey will flounder on the problems it itself has created. For the EU to intervene in the Caucasus would have been very foolish. As much as I sympathize with Armenians, they are not without blame. The Armenians are guilty dreams of greater Armenia just like the Azerbaijani's are guilty of dreams of greater Azerbaijan. To empower either side is a dangerous game. It's up to the two sides in a conflict to compromise; failing that they have to continue fighting until they are exhausted. For outside powers to intervene just makes things worse.

[noemon]

@noemon, you may be itching for war with Turkey, but I don't think that's very smart.

You 're the ones enabling Turkey to go to war by giving her the weapons she needs and by refusing sanctions against her. Germany is empowering Turkey and Erdogan. This straw-man of yours is getting old now. Greece does not want war with Turkey and neither do I and that is why sanctions are required on her economy so that her capability to go to her proclaimed war with us is not materialised. It has already materialised in Armenia, Syria, Libya, Cyprus and in Greece's easternmost boundaries.

Before when? is the time for Europe to say something with a united voice & action?

[Atlantis]

@noemon, I'm most certainly not empowering Turkey in any way. I have always been in favor of kicking Turkey out of Nato. As long as you don't kick Turkey out of Nato, you can't prevent sharing weapon systems. Having common weapons systems is the minimum requirement in any military alliance.

[MadMonk]

@noemon, I'm most certainly not empowering Turkey in any way. I have always been in favor of kicking Turkey out of Nato. As long as you don't kick Turkey out of Nato, you can't prevent sharing weapon systems. Having common weapons systems is the minimum requirement in any military alliance.

Common weapons systems. NATO. Yeah, we are not buying that anymore.

The New York Times, July 17 2019
U.S. Punishes Turkey by Canceling Sale of Jets

The White House informed Turkey, a NATO ally, on Wednesday that the United States would not sell it F-35 stealth fighter jets, in retaliation for the country’s purchase of Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile systems.

“The F-35 cannot coexist with a Russian intelligence collection platform that will be used to learn about its advanced capabilities,” the White House said in a statement.

“Accepting the S-400 undermines the commitments all NATO allies made to each other to move away from Russian systems.”

“This will have detrimental impacts on Turkish interoperability with the alliance,” the statement said.

For his part, Mr. Erdogan has celebrated the S-400 purchase — and, to a lesser degree, his own defiance — as a sign of Turkey’s increasing independence on the world stage.

“As long as we, as a nation, protect our homeland, our flag, the call for prayer, democracy and the state,” Mr. Erdogan said on Monday during the anniversary celebration of a failed coup attempt against him in 2016, “God willing, no power’s hand will be able to reach them.”

Mr. Trump has in the past praised Mr. Erdogan as an ally in the fight against terrorism while ignoring the Turkish leader’s authoritarian crackdown on his own people. When Mr. Erdogan visited the White House in 2017, the two hailed the arrival of a new era of relations after the presidency of Barack Obama.

Deutsche Welle, October 19 2019
Germany: No total arms export ban for Turkey despite Merkel's promise

German Chancellor Angela Merkel last week vowed to halt weapons exports to Turkey due to its offensive against Syrian Kurds in northern Syria. But the Economics Ministry now says the ban isn't so far-reaching.

Germany's arms export ban to Turkey only applies to weapons and other military assets that could be used during Ankara's offensive in northern Syria, the Economics Ministry clarified on Saturday.

The ministry was responding to a request by the socialist Left party following comments by Chancellor Angela Merkel.

On Thursday, Merkel warned Germany's lower house of parliament, the Bundestag, that a 10-day-old incursion by Ankara's military into Syrian territory to push out a Syrian Kurd militia was "a humanitarian drama with enormous geopolitical consequences."

Amid concerns the offensive would displace tens of thousands more Syrians, the chancellor said that "under the current conditions," the German government would not provide any weapons to Turkey.

Merkel was standing behind an agreement reached by the EU's 28 foreign ministers on Monday to limit arms sales to Ankara.

Reacting to Merkel's comments, Left party MP Stefan Liebich accused the chancellor of deceiving the public.

Last year, arms sales to Ankara totaled €242.8 million ($271 million), almost a third of the German defense sector's total production, according to the Deutsche Presse-Agentur news agency.

In the first eight months of 2019, arms sales rose to €250.4 million, the highest since 2005.

The number of export permits handed out by Berlin has more than tripled to 182 so far this year, compared to 58 for the whole of last year.

Money, money, money
Must be funny
In the a rich man's world

Show me the money!

(Yes, it had to be ABBA. Sue me)