[Drlee]

@Atlantis

You have no idea how hard it is to get into the EU. Turkey has tried without success for nearly 50 years.

Turkey could have been in the EU long ago if they were not a pariah state with questionable democracy, a sponsor of terrorism, engage in threatening and intimidating an EU member state, and controlled by an autocratic asshole. So Turkey did not really try to get it, it tried to bully its way in.

[B0ycey]

To be honest, recently it seems that some members of the EU (YES PROBABLY THE FRENCH) want to torpedo the negotiations. So as soon as UK caves in to our demands, the French just add some more. I think that the plan right now is to make it look like the EU tried but everyone already agreed that there is going to be no deal.

The French are just like everyone else. They want what they already had. This isn't a bad thing, and perhaps a compromise can be made here. A transition then quota rights so livelihoods can be saved. But if Atlantis is right and the sticking point comes back to regulatory alignment, if the UK and EU say they have done all they can already and can't go any further then the outcome is No Deal because of the red lines. Why? Because this was the whole point of Brexit for the Brexiteers in the first place. To make deals with other nations. And freetrade always favours the exporter, regardless who is worse off per individual state. Tariffs only hurts the comsumer anyway. That being the case, I don't see Johnson caving in here especially given the damage he has already done to the economy with our Covid response. He will just do what is needed and resign and give the reigns to the next Brexiteer who believes in No Deal or Sunak who is the only likeable Tory and who happens to have Indian connections so they will be able to lead without the baggage of being responsible for the entailing clusterfuck.

[ingliz]

Is it the UK's fault?

Yes.

Why should we compromise when the UK is the supplicant? Let them stew for a few months on WTO terms and they will come back to the table or starve.

If anyone thinks that harsh, the British Home Secretary Priti Patel suggested that the UK government use potential food shortages in Ireland as leverage against the backstop when she was only a former minister under May.

[B0ycey]

Why should we compromise when the UK is the supplicant? Let them stew for a few months on WTO terms and they will come back to the table or starve.

Starve? The trade deal won't prevent trade. WTO is a trade agreement. What will happen is EU goods become more expensive meaning the 26% EU food market will shrink and the UK and international food market will grow in the UK. This deal is perhaps only dersireable for both sides not so much for trade per se but to cut the red tape. Otherwise I suspect this would have ended the weekend.

[BeesKnee5]

It doesn't need to prevent trade to cause problems, just slowing it down will be enough.

UK ports are already overloaded due to stockpiling of long life goods and we are reliant on imports from Europe for a lot of our food.

It's a recipe for there to be gaps in supermarket shelves for a while.

[B0ycey]

It doesn't need to prevent trade to cause problems, just slowing it down will be enough.

UK ports are already overloaded due to stockpiling of long life goods and we are reliant on imports from Europe for a lot of our food.

It's a recipe for there to be gaps in supermarket shelves for a while.

There certainly be gaps. No doubt about that. And you'll have to change your diet. But no different than during WW2 where we coped. But nobody will starve. You'll have more UK products, especially those that would otherwise be trapped at Dover, making it on the shelves instead. And Bristol will become more busy. That isn't saying the UK won't suffer from issues and Dover will no doubt become a car park. I am just saying that the issues will be short lived and market forces will manipulate new markets.

[ingliz]

Starve?

Britain will face severe disruptions at its ports and food shortages if it fails to strike a trade deal with the European Union before the end of the year, according to a recent report from Kings College London.

[B0ycey]

Britain will face severe disruptions at its ports and food shortages if it fails to strike a trade deal with the European Union before the end of the year, according to a recent report from Kings College London.

Yeah, for EU foods.

[Atlantis]

Turkey could have been in the EU long ago if they were not a pariah state with questionable democracy, a sponsor of terrorism, engage in threatening and intimidating an EU member state, and controlled by an autocratic asshole. So Turkey did not really try to get it, it tried to bully its way in.

Turkey was on its way to membership by gradually introducing democratic reforms. It's only during the second part of Erdogan's regime that Turkey started to move in the opposite direction.

Erdogan knows that EU membership is out off the question because of the direction he is taking the country into. He has substituted the goal of EU membership with neo-Ottoman imperialism. The two don't go together.

The UK government had control of fishing rights, just like every other EU country. They chose to sell them to the highest bidder. Then they allowed the transfer of fishing rights which allowed foreign boat owners to buy up the rights from small UK fishing boats.

That is in line with neoliberal thinking. The UK is the strongest advocate of the free market, deregulation and neoliberalism. Therefore, it is only logical that it should sacrifice its fishermen. If the Brexitters have their way, they will also sacrifice the British working man on the altar of the free market and deregulation.

The fishermen are just small fry.

[BeesKnee5]

There certainly be gaps. No doubt about that. And you'll have to change your diet. But no different than during WW2 where we coped. But nobody will starve. You'll have more UK products, especially those that would otherwise be trapped at Dover, making it on the shelves instead. And Bristol will become more busy. That isn't saying the UK won't suffer from issues and Dover will no doubt become a car park. I am just saying that the issues will be short lived and market forces will manipulate new markets.

I have no desire to choose self inflicted harm on the basis the nation survived during a war.

How long before you think the UK public will see normality return?
I suspect it will be very quickly because the UK government will conceed to prevent the worst of any problems that arise. It will be painted as a fantastic new oven ready deal.

[B0ycey]

I have no desire to choose self inflicted harm on the basis the nation survived during a war.

How long before you think the UK public will see normality return?
I suspect it will be very quickly because the UK government will conceed to prevent the worst of any problems that arise. It will be painted as a fantastic new oven ready deal.

I am only discussing the issue of starvation which was ludicrous. No deal will mean nothing will return to normal. And even a deal means things will change anyway. I support the EU FYI. And I would rather have remained. And I certainly support a deal. But that doesn't mean I am going to make things up for the sakes of oneupmanship. Leaving the EU will cause issues, some of which are financial, some of which will be supply and some of which will be trade. But market forces will change our dependence on the EU and that is just a fact.

[ingliz]

Yeah, for EU foods.

A significant percentage of UK agri-food imports come from the EU (73%), with dairy products, food preparations, and meat products the most pronounced EU agri-food products as a share of total UK agri-food imports. Of the UK agri-food imports from the EU, the main provenances are the Netherlands (14%), Germany (11%), Ireland (10%), and France (10%).

Source: EU Commission

The UK supplied just over half (55%) of the food consumed in the UK.

Source: UK Government

[B0ycey]

A significant percentage of UK agri-food imports come from the EU (73%), with dairy products, food preparations, and meat products the most pronounced EU agri-food products as a share of total UK agri-food imports. Of the UK agri-food imports from the EU, the main provenances are the Netherlands (14%), Germany (11%), Ireland (10%), and France (10%).

Source: EU Commission

UK farming provides for 55% of domestic food consumption.

Source: UK Government

Don't worry @ingliz, I know you are just a shitposter who likes to cause falsehood but nobody cares about your oneliners so why should I care.

Again, this doesn't stop trade. It just affect price. And if there are issues of logistics, that only benefits other markets, some of which will be UK markets and not the EU markets in regards to the UK market. In other words those figures will change due to market forces.

[BeesKnee5]

I am only discussing the issue of starvation which was ludicrous. No deal will mean nothing will return to normal. And even a deal means things will change anyway. I support the EU FYI. And I would rather have remained. And I certainly support a deal. But that doesn't mean I am going to make things up for the sakes of oneupmanship. Leaving the EU will cause issues, some of which are financial, some of which will be supply and some of which will be trade. But market forces will change our dependence on the EU and that is just a fact.

The problem is the UK public have been primed by politicians to think brexit happens and then we all go back to normality ( or better).

It's the trap they now find themselves in, accept a deal and admit we were always going to be worse off, or reject a deal and blame the EU for a failure of diplomacy.

[B0ycey]

The problem is the UK public have been primed by politicians to think brexit happens and then we all go back to normality ( or better).

It's the trap they now find themselves in, accept a deal and admit we were always going to be worse off, or reject a deal and blame the EU for a failure of diplomacy.

Well Brexit did happen and we are out. And I doubt the government will be able to get around this with no deal and perhaps might do with a deal. They will get the blame because of the promises that could never have been guaranteed. We will be worse off with no deal.

[ingliz]

this doesn't stop trade

A seven thousand truck tailback will severely hamper the distribution of the product.

Gove confirmed to the Commons that queues of up to 7000 trucks at the Kent ports were possible if hauliers fail to prepare for customs changes.

[BeesKnee5]

Well Brexit did happen and we are out. And I doubt the government will be able to get around this with no deal and perhaps might do with a deal. They will get the blame because of the promises that could never have been guaranteed. We will be worse off with no deal.

It certainly did.

I'm of the opinion that deal or no deal will make little difference, the self imposed red lines are enough to make any result disruptive.

The UKs governments only remaining course of action is to blame the other side for the problems and hope enough people buy it.

[B0ycey]

It certainly did.

I'm of the opinion that deal or no deal will make little difference, the self imposed red lines are enough to make any result disruptive.

The UKs governments only remaining course of action is to blame the other side for the problems and hope enough people buy it.

On a political narrative, I suspect both sides want a deal due to the issues of red tape because of distribution rather than for any economic benefit. For the UK at least tariffs could come in handy for paying for the Covid clusterfuck as it could be used as a stealth tax on consumerism for example and the EU for keeping credibility in the single market. So no, no deal and a deal are not the same. The consumer, that is the voter, will notice both shortages due to delays and price increases on the shelves with no deal. The government can't BS that where this is less of an issue with a deal hence they then can.

If we have no deal Johnson will have to resign because being a clown doesn't work once you have been found out during hard times. Trump discovered that with Covid when he once had favourable polls early in the year.

[ingliz]

It just affect price

Best case scenario...

The number of households experiencing food insecurity and its severity is likely to increase because of expected sizeable increases in median food prices after Brexit. Higher increases are more likely than lower rises and towards the upper limits, these would entail severe impacts. Research showing a low food budget leads to increasingly poor diet suggests that demand for health services in both the short and longer terms is likely to increase due to the effects of food insecurity on the incidence and management of diet-sensitive conditions.

Source: British Medical Journal

[B0ycey]

There just have to eat all these fish you said would otherwise rot Ingliz.

On all seriousness, this is an issue with or without Brexit. Perhaps the UK should do like Argentina and subsides foodbanks with the money perhaps.