[Juin]

[quote="Godstud"][/quote]



There is also something I have never understood with the western logic. How is it that any nationalities under Russian domination are automatically supported in their quest to escape Russian domination, but somehow Russian nationalities under domination of newly minted states dont enjoy the same support for their bids for Independence?

The Ukrainians were once upon a time under Russian domination, and with the fall of the Soviet Union gained Independence. With the support of the west. But this new Ukraine also has a chunk of ethnic Russians within its borders, how come they are supposed to just accept ethnic Ukrainian suzerainty? Are bids for independence legitimate only if they are against Russia, but illegitimate if it is by minorities under Ukraine?

[Politics_Observer]

@Juin

Yes it is a trick out of Franjo Tudjman playbook and it worked. The flagpole bomb was a trick out of the North Vietnamese and VC playbook and the matching uniform trick was out of the playbook of the Taliban. Some of these tricks my country's forces have been on the receiving end of them in some of our past wars. Sure you can dress up soldiers and have them wearing the same uniforms as the opposing force. Not sure if it violates the laws of war, but it's a trick the Germans also played on our forces in World War II during the Battle of the Bulge as well as the Taliban during the US Afghanistan war. The Germans during World War II had one unit that played this trick on my country's forces during the Battle of the Bulge and they misdirected traffic that was responding to the German surprise offensive and they created all kinds of confusion and chaos. Taliban dressed up like American soldiers in some of their attacks on us in Afghanistan.

[Suchard]

That is what it looks like. That is if it gets to a full blown war. But I doubt it will. I am not sure the likes of France, Germany, Italy care that much for pushing Nato further east towards Moscow. The US can go it alone, but it looks like an undertaking fraught with perils.

Putin leaves the impression he is scared of indigestion. He only nibbles bits and pieces. Putin had what it takes to gobble up Georgia, or gobble up so much of little Georgia as to render the rump dependent on Moscow. Yet Putin only nibbled a bit. When Putin blitzed on Ukraine the Ukrainians were unbalanced enough for Putin to have grabbed the water sources in Ukraine sorely needed by Crimea; he could have pushed to the outskirts of Kharkiv and enveloped, if not taken Mariopol, but he didnt. A strange fellow this Putin

If we are to go by the chatter, it is far from a war with NATO or the West. Yet, Washington loses face. Every victory of Putin is a defeat of the USA. Putin had nothing to worry about as long as Trump was in the White House and he was content with that. Now that Joe Biden is his adversary, he is rumbling the tanks to the border of Donbass. He has not invaded Ukraine and he can arguably call this manoevers. He has sent a signal to Kiev that he is fed up with Kiev's claim to the Donbass and he is ready to move in if Kiev does not come to its senses. Joe Biden will do nothing. The Ukrainians will have to grant sweeping autonomy to the Donbass and the problem will be solved.

[Politics_Observer]

@Suchard

I wouldn't do that if I were the Ukrainians. I would just keep gathering intelligence on the Russian forces in the Donbass region figuring out their weak points and waiting for an opportune to hit it with a surprise attack and retake back what is rightfully mine that Russia stole from Ukraine. In addition, I would by laying all kinds of anti-tank mines, booby traps anti-tank and anti-personal mines and preparing a plan to arm every man, woman and child with weapons and digging underground complexes and tunnels to fight the Russians in a long, drawn out protected and expensive conflict if necessary. I would also be doing some diplomacy to get better weapons to combat Russian armor and troops. Also, good electronic warfare equipment too given that the Russians have excellent electronic warfare capabilities. But if the Russians were to decide to invade and occupy all of Ukraine, If I were the Ukrainians I would want to make that a very long, drawn out, protracted conflict that is very expensive for the Russians as part of an exhaustion strategy to exhaust the Russians and force them to eventually leave. But this is all up to the Ukrainians.

[Politics_Observer]

@Juin

Tanks are also very easy pickings when they don't have infantry support. So, if the Russians send a bunch of tanks in, they are going to need infantry support for those tanks if they don't want them to be vulnerable to opposing infantry anti-tank weapons or tank traps set for them. Tank crews can't see very well all around them at a 360 degree angle and very vulnerable to anti-tank attack by opposing infantry IF those tanks don't also go with infantry support. It's a very bad idea for a tank to wander off by itself without infantry support. Plus, in city fighting tanks can be vulnerable too. If you blow up a bunch of buildings in a city, that makes it easier for an opposing force to hide and inflict heavy casualties on an attacking force.

[ingliz]

If I was the Ukrainians...

If I was Russia, I'd cut the head off the snake and take out Kyiv.

[Politics_Observer]

@ingliz

Well, the Ukrainians have to be willing to make a serious sacrifice if they want to be independent. That would mean to be willing to protract out any conflict with Russia as part of an exhaustion strategy if Russia decides to occupy all of Ukraine. Make Russia pay a lot of money for a very long time out of their economy for occupying Ukraine. Of course, the US, if it decided to do so, could supply plenty of weapons and ammo to protract out and exhaust the Russians if they decide to occupy Ukraine. I would be digging underground tunnels if I was the Ukrainians and procure money and weapons from other countries rather than going back to Russian rule.

But ultimately at the end of the day both sides will pay a heavy price if the Ukrainians decide to go that route and the US decides to further assist Ukraine (both sides being Russia and Ukraine). The Ukrainians have to decide if their independence is worth the cost and very serious and painful sacrifice it will require. Either way, the Ukrainians will pay a heavy price either in lives lost and pain suffered or in lost independence and a return to Russian rule and subjugation. It's a tragic situation but a situation that Russia decided to impose upon Ukraine in my opinion.

If the Russians don't decide to occupy all of Ukraine, I think the Ukrainians should wait for the opportune time to take back Donbass through the use of force and prepare for any Russian counter-attack. The Russians won't give back Donbass so the Ukrainians, if they want it, are going to have to take it back through the use of force like what Croatia did to the Serbs when the Serbs took land that didn't belong to them from Croatia.

Of course, the US could stop sending weapons to Ukraine and allow Ukraine to be subjugated to the Russians, but it doesn't look like that is going to happen. I wouldn't want to be subjugated by another country if I were the Ukrainians (and I am sure the Russians feel the same way too about their country not being subjugated to another country as any country would feel that way), but all of that is up to the Ukrainians.

The ball really is in their court for them to decide what they want to do with their future which don't have easy choices for them. I don't envy the Ukrainians. That's a terrible situation they have found themselves in. This also depends on the US willingness to support Ukraine. The Ukrainian government for all intents and purposes seems to want US support. That doesn't mean the US has to give that support to Ukraine if it decides it doesn't want to. Russia could potentially find itself in a pickle in my opinion in this situation if it isn't careful where the Ukraine situation could turn into a costly problem for Russia somewhere in the future.

[Beren]

if Russia decides to occupy all of Ukraine.

Why would they occupy all of Ukraine? They already have what they want, and can keep, the rest of Ukraine is not that worthy anyway. The next thing would be a pro-Russia government, not more occupation.

[Politics_Observer]

@Beren

Well they had a pro Russian government and the Ukrainians threw it off. If the Russians don't occupy all of Ukraine, then the Ukrainians could decide to bide their time and wait to take back their land the Russians stole from them by force. Time is on the Ukrainians side. All they have to do is wait for the Russians to let their guard down and then strike. And if the rest of Ukrainian is not worth it, by forcing the Russians to occupy all of Ukraine and making such an occupation a high cost, the Russians pay heavy for little value in return.

[Beren]

Time is on the Ukrainians side. All they have to do is wait for the Russians to let their guard down and then strike.

It's rather the opposite, actually.

[annatar1914]

@Beren

Well they had a pro Russian government and the Ukrainians threw it off. If the Russians don't occupy all of Ukraine, then the Ukrainians could decide to bide their time and wait to take back their land the Russians stole from them by force. Time is on the Ukrainians side. All they have to do is wait for the Russians to let their guard down and then strike. And if the rest of Ukrainian is not worth it, by forcing the Russians to occupy all of Ukraine and making such an occupation a high cost, the Russians pay heavy for little value in return.

@Politics_Observer ,

Nobody 'stole' the Donbass from the Ukraine, or the Crimea, that is a damn lie. The Donbass region is ethnic Russian and came under attack by Fascists after the 2013 revolution in Kiev, and separatists therefore formed the Lugansk and Donetsk People's republics. I know, I know refugees who spent months dodging fire from their own alleged Ukrainian military forces, shooting at them. They fought the Ukrainian military forces off, with a little help from Russia (fortunately for them, the Donbass was the Ukraine's primary military industrial region already, and so the locals had sufficient arms to fight the Fascists off with.

Same with the Crimea. A vote was held by the Crimea's majority ethnic Russian residents to rejoin Russia, and so they did. Fortunately for them, the Ukrainian military wasn't around to try and murder them, but plenty of Russian forces there under agreement with previous Ukrainian and Russian governments.

This isn't America's fight to meddle in. The Ukraine is run by criminal oligarchs and fascist scum.

[Politics_Observer]

@Beren

Actually, that's not necessarily the case. The Ukrainians can make a Russian occupation of Ukraine very expensive for the Russians if they know what they are doing. This is especially true if they are receiving a substantial amount of American weapons. The Russians might be strong but they aren't 10 feet tall and they bleed like the rest of us. They are not supermen.

[Beren]

Actually, that's not necessarily the case. The Ukrainians can make a Russian occupation of Ukraine very expensive for the Russians if they know what they are doing. This is especially true if they are receiving a substantial amount of American weapons. The Russians might be strong but they aren't 10 feet tall and they bleed like the rest of us. They are not supermen.

Time is on the Russians side. All they have to do is wait for the Ukrainians to let their guard down and then strike. They will finally win this, sooner or later, for historic, cultural, economic, and geopolitical reasons. It's just a matter of time that America abandons Ukraine.

[Politics_Observer]

@Beren

History shows Russia has been beaten plenty of times and certainly can be beat again. Besides, you can't fight today's wars based on past historical wars. Today's wars are not the wars of yesterday. Even if Russia strikes first and occupies Ukraine, they are going to look very bad in the eyes of the rest of the world and it will certainly propel the west to increase their defense budgets much more than what they already are.

[Beren]

History shows Russia has

Ukraine anyway.

[Politics_Observer]

I think the Ukrainians can beat the Russians if they are smart and play their cards right. The Ukrainians will need international help though. Whether the US helps the Ukrainians or not is another story. The US is the only country last time I check that is providing any meaningful aid and support to Ukraine.

[Beren]

I think the Ukrainians can beat the Russians

You think wrong, obviously.

[Juin]

If we are to go by the chatter, it is far from a war with NATO or the West. Yet, Washington loses face. Every victory of Putin is a defeat of the USA. Putin had nothing to worry about as long as Trump was in the White House and he was content with that. Now that Joe Biden is his adversary, he is rumbling the tanks to the border of Donbass. He has not invaded Ukraine and he can arguably call this manoevers. He has sent a signal to Kiev that he is fed up with Kiev's claim to the Donbass and he is ready to move in if Kiev does not come to its senses. Joe Biden will do nothing. The Ukrainians will have to grant sweeping autonomy to the Donbass and the problem will be solved.

I am not surprised Putin sat it out all through the Trump Presidency. It may also be a glimpse into the Oriental mindset. Patience is the name of the game with the oriental mindset. They play chess. It is a game that does not reward impatience. Ukraine is right there on Russia's doorstep, it is not going anywhere.

But things have changed at the White House. The Party of "punish Putin" is in power. For four years or more Democrats, to the last man, have sounded the tocsin; taunting Trump to take on Russia. Leaving no doubt that they consider Putin the enemy that must be confronted. Biden, maybe to show his irate consituency that he is cut from a different cloth than Trump, has called Putin a "killer". Should Putin pay attention, or take that seriously? Maybe not. But who knows? Who knows what little bruised egos can precipitate dangerous standoffs?

And you are correct, Putin has not invaded Putin. He can move his troops all he wants within Russian territories. So that was a good move. But it touched a nerve in Kiev. And Kiev is screaming loudly for help. That is where Biden is in a fix. He has offered unwavering support. I am not sure how he gets to deliver if things heat up.

As long as there are ethnic Russians in Ukraine, Kiev has a problem. And there are ethnics Russians as far as Odessa.

[Juin]

@Juin

Tanks are also very easy pickings when they don't have infantry support. So, if the Russians send a bunch of tanks in, they are going to need infantry support for those tanks if they don't want them to be vulnerable to opposing infantry anti-tank weapons or tank traps set for them. Tank crews can't see very well all around them at a 360 degree angle and very vulnerable to anti-tank attack by opposing infantry IF those tanks don't also go with infantry support. It's a very bad idea for a tank to wander off by itself without infantry support. Plus, in city fighting tanks can be vulnerable too. If you blow up a bunch of buildings in a city, that makes it easier for an opposing force to hide and inflict heavy casualties on an attacking force.

Correct. And it may also explain why in Putin's previous blitzes he did not move to envelop cities with heavy ethnic Russians like Kharkiv and Mariopol. If Putin took all the areas heavily populated by ethnic Russians it may actually make things easier for Ukraine. Then Ukraine is rid of ethnic Russians. But as it is Ukraine is still left holding the basket. As long as Ukraine is still chained to heavily Russian cities like Kharkiv, Odessa, Mariopol; and Russia and Russian paramilitaries are not far off, Ukraine has a permanent problem.

[Juin]

@ingliz

Well, the Ukrainians have to be willing to make a serious sacrifice if they want to be independent.

A question I have to ask you is what the ethnic Russians in Ukraine have to do to be independent? Ukrainians want to be independent of Russia, a legitimate demand. Is what is good for Ukrainians not good for its ethnic Russians? It seems to me like we have a situation where Ukraine wanted to be independent, and is now independent of the larger Russia. But the ethnic Russians within the new Ukraine want to be independent of Ukraine.

The reason I bring this up is that it seems groups that want to break away from Russian domination are applauded. I have no problem with that. But same newly minted nations also easily find themselves in the shoes of the Russian domination they just escaped. They also have within their newly minted boundaries minorities of their own, and in many cases minority ethnic Russians. Why is not ok for Russians to dominate them but it is ok for them to dominate Russians?