[JohnRawls]

@noemon

The situation might be more complicated regarding Ukraine. I actually think that Russia might not be the instigator of this but it is really hard to tell for now. Why I think that Russia is not really interested in this is for several reason:

1) Last time Russia didn't warn anyone nor scare anyone, it just attacked and that is it. It took Crimea and instigated Donbass. Currently Russia is talking and warning not to start any provocations or wars in Donbass. This is atypical if Syria and Crimea come to mind.
2) Russia is in a very weak and fragile situation right now with Navalny. Putin is not naive enough to believe in a quick 2 day war and victory scenario of some sort. So, at the very least, he and his inner circle will contemplate an option of protracted conflict or a loss which would probably mean either an end for them or a full Stalinist dictatorship. I do not think that they like any of the outcomes. Stalinism will require a red curtain of sorts which means they will loose their money abroad and so on. Corrupt people want to spend their corrupt money after all.
3) The mood in the country is not ready for war. It won't be accepted anymore as a kind of "Protect Russians" abroad kind of action. Instead it will be considered something of a scapegoat war.
4) Russian economy is already in the gutter and is the main cause of all of the discontent. Basically it all comes down to this. If the war happens then Europe and US will implement sectoral and full economic sanctions again. EU and US will have no choice in this regard. Perhaps even full oil and gas embargo.

I mean may be I am overthinking it and Putin and his regime just want a quick victorious scapegoat war to distract the population. Alternative to this is that this is all a big bluff and kinda a warning message for Biden and the rest not to get too rowdy about the inhumanity of Russia. A kind of a mad dog play.

If it is a mad dog play of sorts means that Biden has really severe stuff ready as sanctions and have EU cooperation on them. If this ends after US implement some sanctions soon without any real action then this was a mad dog scenario.

[ingliz]

@JohnRawls

The border with Ukraine is not Ukraine.

Why do you think Russia will go into Donbas? Unless Ukraine forces its hand, it seems a very silly thing to do. They don't need a scapegoat war.

Navalny is a joke.

[JohnRawls]

@JohnRawls

The border with Ukraine is not Ukraine.

Why do you think Russia will go into Donbas? Unless Ukraine forces its hand, it seems a very silly thing to do. They don't need a scapegoat war.

Navalny is a joke.

Putins popularity is critically low so he had to arrest Navalny and most other important members of the real opposition and it is on a downward spiral. So no, Navalny is not a joke.

As for why Donbass might be relevant, you can read my other post.

[Politics_Observer]

@ingliz

Yeah Yeah, so when the U.S. went to war in during Desert Storm or Iraq or Afghanistan, the Russian military was most assuredly studying how we waged war. I know for fact 100% sure that the Chinese were. And surprise surprise, we do the same thing when Russia or China goes to war. We study your conflicts too and get as much information as we can. So you can just run your mouth but at the end of the day, we are doing the same thing you guys do (you guys being the Russians). You guys wouldn't be doing it if it wasn't worth your time. You guys (you guys as in the Russians as you did mention you had relatives from Russia) know it so stop trying to bullshit or downplay when we do the same thing that you guys do. It's part of the game. You should know that.

[B0ycey]

@ingliz

Yeah Yeah, so when the U.S. went to war in during Desert Storm or Iraq or Afghanistan, the Russian military was most assuredly studying how we waged war. I know for fact 100% sure that the Chinese were. And surprise surprise, we do the same thing when Russia or China goes to war. We study your conflicts too and get as much information as we can. So you can just run your mouth but at the end of the day, we are doing the same thing you guys do (you guys being the Russians). You guys wouldn't be doing it if it wasn't worth your time. You guys (you guys as in the Russians as you did mention you had relatives from Russia) know it so stop trying to bullshit or downplay when we do the same thing that you guys do. It's part of the game. You should know that.

PO, are you expecting a Georgia type of assault here or something? Sometimes you do have to take what Russia are saying seriously. They are saying there are there to stop an assault from Ukraine in Donbass. I doubt they want to go into Ukraine given they have not moved in for seven years. But clearly they see Donbass rebels as allies and as just preventing Ukraine from any strategic advantage.

[Politics_Observer]

@B0ycey

There is just one problem with what you are saying. The Russians stole Donbass from Ukraine and Donbass doesn't belong to Russia, it belongs to Ukraine, so Russia should not have to be surprised when they have to send their troops back into Ukraine again because they stole somebody else's land and they go to take it back. I would be taking it back if I were the Ukrainians. But that's Russian lives and money at stake, not American lives and money. But we will certainly help the Ukrainians given that Russia is an enemy and adversary of the U.S. and Ukraine and the U.S. have a common enemy.

There is no reason why the U.S. should be concerned at all if Russia has to spend money and lives sending it's troops back into Ukraine. You must have forgotten that Russia was paying bounties on U.S. troops in Afghanistan. Maybe the Russians shouldn't be making trouble for the U.S. and the U.S. would not be making trouble for the Russians in return. But that's not the game the Russians wanted to play and we certainly can't let the fact they hacked our elections or paid bounties on our soldiers in Afghanstan to go unanswered. And so, why not help Ukraine, why not provoke Russia to send it's troops back into Ukraine again?

[B0ycey]

I'm not saying Donbass is Russian, I am saying they are backing Donbass rebels @Politics_Observer. That is why they are by the border. Clearly they don't want Ukraine to have a strategical advantage given they have annexed Crimea. So they won't enter Ukraine if Ukraine don't push into Donbass because they haven't entered Ukraine in seven years. Because whether the "official border" of Ukraine goes beyond Donbass, Donbass strongholds associate themselves as Russian and really that is all that matters to Russia right now.

[noemon]

Donbass belongs to the Ukraine, Russia has no right to cross into the Donbass regardless what the Ukraine does to reclaim its territory.

[Politics_Observer]

@B0ycey

Well, if the Russians don't want to lose that strategic advantage, given that Crimea (as recognized by Russia prior to their invasion of Ukraine) belongs to Ukraine and so does Donbass too, then perhaps Russia should try diplomacy rather than force. Negotiate and try to establish good relations with Ukraine so that maybe Ukraine might be more willing to let Russia use some of their ports. That's if Ukraine wants to. I am going to tell you those wars are costly and expensive. Just because Russia is stronger than Ukraine doesn't mean that can't drag out for a long time to come costing the Russians a lot of money.

[Igor Antunov]

Took longer than I expected but Russia is finally about to take back much of eastern Ukraine. The intent is to secure fresh water for Crimea, create a land buffer around it and settle the pro0russian eastern regions once and for all. Belarusian forces massing too, for some tandem action. Putin led Russian leadership doesn't engage in campaigns for fun, they expects concrete results. Crimea, Chechnya, georgia, Syria, Donbass, its always the same, results. 100,000 russian troops is plenty to achieve this which appears to be the actual number now on the border, alongside the 40,000 active fighters in the donbass. Don't know what belarus will bring to the table. Probably a small expeditionary force of <20k.

Expect ear piercing screeching from the decrepit west. They might even invade and puppet western Ukraine once and for all, but not much to that, it's strategically and economically useless. The breadbasket and black sea concerns are in the east. The western ukraine will be a welfare state and perpetual burden.

[Juin]

Donbass belongs to the Ukraine, Russia has no right to cross into the Donbass regardless what the Ukraine does to reclaim its territory.

Ukraine is welcome to keep Donbass if they can keep it. Just like the American continents belong to the native American nations. Last I looked intruders have declared the lands of native Americans theirs. Who confers these rights that you uphold so strongly?

[Juin]

[usermention=12471]

The situation might be more complicated regarding Ukraine. I actually think that Russia might not be the instigator of this but it is really hard to tell for now. Why I think that Russia is not really interested in this is for several reason:

1) Last time Russia didn't warn anyone nor scare anyone, it just attacked and that is it. It took Crimea and instigated Donbass. Currently Russia is talking and warning not to start any provocations or wars in Donbass. This is atypical if Syria and Crimea come to mind.
2) Russia is in a very weak and fragile situation right now with Navalny. Putin is not naive enough to believe in a quick 2 day war and victory scenario of some sort. So, at the very least, he and his inner circle will contemplate an option of protracted conflict or a loss which would probably mean either an end for them or a full Stalinist dictatorship. I do not think that they like any of the outcomes. Stalinism will require a red curtain of sorts which means they will loose their money abroad and so on. Corrupt people want to spend their corrupt money after all.
3) The mood in the country is not ready for war. It won't be accepted anymore as a kind of "Protect Russians" abroad kind of action. Instead it will be considered something of a scapegoat war.
4) Russian economy is already in the gutter and is the main cause of all of the discontent. Basically it all comes down to this. If the war happens then Europe and US will implement sectoral and full economic sanctions again. EU and US will have no choice in this regard. Perhaps even full oil and gas embargo.

I mean may be I am overthinking it and Putin and his regime just want a quick victorious scapegoat war to distract the population. Alternative to this is that this is all a big bluff and kinda a warning message for Biden and the rest not to get too rowdy about the inhumanity of Russia. A kind of a mad dog play.

If it is a mad dog play of sorts means that Biden has really severe stuff ready as sanctions and have EU cooperation on them. If this ends after US implement some sanctions soon without any real action then this was a mad dog scenario.

It might not be all that complicated, viewed from the Kremlin.

There is one thing we can be certain of: that Putin considered the collapse of the Soviet Union a disaster for Russia; and in consequence sees his mission as halting the creep towards Russian borders of a rival and hostile military alliance.

Is the Nato/EU project to absorbe Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan dead? I think it is. But does the Kremlin believe it is dead? I doubt Russians believe Nato/EU will stop encroaching on Russian preserves unless Russians make it costly.

I will say the quietus of the last four years was simply because Putin did not see in Trump any designs to muscle into Ukraine. But more importantly, as far as Putin is concerned, those four years also saw Democrats elevate Putin to evil incarnate. Now the Democrats are in power and Joe just called Putin a "killer".

Maybe given all that Putin just concluded that he has nothing to lose. The question then becomes does he shape events, or does he allow his adversaries to shape events?

I will say it is Putin who has the strong hand here. Mind you I am not saying Putin is mightier than the US. No, he is not. But as far as shaping events around the Baltic Sea Putin is better placed to do that.


1. I agree with you there. If Putin was interested in a land grab he would have gone about it softly and with a big stick. That his almost loudly advertising his presence suggests it is more a warning shot than a land grab.

2,3,4 appears to me more likely to push Putin to war than discourage him.

Just some thoughts of mine for whatever they are worth.

[Juin]

Putins popularity is critically low so he had to arrest Navalny and most other important members of the real opposition and it is on a downward spiral. So no, Navalny is not a joke.

As for why Donbass might be relevant, you can read my other post.

Putin is the Dictator of Russia. Let us call a spade a spade. Navalny would be arrested whether Putin's popularity is high or low.

[Juin]

@Juin

I edited the above post in put in a video of the same professor in a lecture he gave that I felt was much better and less boring.

Thanks, I am watching it. Should be done tonight. I will let you know what I think of it after I am done.

[Politics_Observer]

@Juin

It's a fair point that Native American land is stolen land, that's true. The genocide against the Native Americans was done primarily from germ warfare as well as general warfare. Plus, what really harmed the Native Americans was the fact their immune systems did not have immunity to European diseases. The Europeans did have immunity to many of those diseases though. So, given the lack of immunity to European disease, that played a major factor in the Native Americans being killed off here in the U.S. as well as other parts of the North, South America and some of the surrounding islands that were settled by Europeans.

[Igor Antunov]

Unfinished business, they're going to fix the bordergore.


The major river looks like a comfy new boundary.

[ingliz]

I would be taking it back if I were the Ukrainians.

From the horse's mouth....

Dmitry Kozak, deputy head of Russia's presidential administration, said yesterday, "Everything depends on the scale of the conflagration. An escalation could mark the beginning of the end for Ukraine - not a shot in the leg, but in the face".

[B0ycey]

@B0ycey

Well, if the Russians don't want to lose that strategic advantage, given that Crimea (as recognized by Russia prior to their invasion of Ukraine) belongs to Ukraine and so does Donbass too, then perhaps Russia should try diplomacy rather than force. Negotiate and try to establish good relations with Ukraine so that maybe Ukraine might be more willing to let Russia use some of their ports. That's if Ukraine wants to. I am going to tell you those wars are costly and expensive. Just because Russia is stronger than Ukraine doesn't mean that can't drag out for a long time to come costing the Russians a lot of money.

It is funny reading diplomacy not war coming from an American - did you guys find those WMDs in the end? But on a serious note, as it happens I agree. Russia and Ukraine should actually get around a table as discuss this. They should have done that seven years ago. But I doubt they will agree simply because Russia do not want the Crimea under Western control. They will also point out that Crimea also voted to be annexed and that it is mostly Russian speaking and pro Russian part of Ukraine. They will NEVER give it up. Thinking Ukraine can get it back now by wasting time or whatever you think Ukrainians Strategy is, is misreading the Russian POV greatly.

Crimea is gone. So unless Ukraine are willing to split their country into two, then all that will happen is what is happening. Russia isn't interested in Donbass because to them it is a buffer between Ukraine and Crimea. They also have not entered Ukraine. What they do want is Ukraine to spend all its time and resources and even man power fighting in an area that belongs to them but is mainly pro Russian for it then takes all the focus away from Crimea. They also consider the rebels as allies that are native Russians living abroad and have the right to Russian passport so believe they have a civil duty to protect them under international law. That is why they are by the border. They are also worried that Ukraine will break the ceasefire and storm into Donbass. Whether you agree with any of that I doubt very much. But sometimes you have to look at someone else's POV to understand why things are what they are. That is all I am saying. I am not saying it is right, but when has geopolitics ever been right? You are in sovereign Syria for a reason for example and you also don't have a legal right to be there I might add but do you want to discuss pissing off out of the ME with Assad? Perhaps not. So why do you think things will be different with Russia?

[ingliz]

Putins popularity is critically low

In the West? Perhaps, but not if you ask the Russians.

Putin's approval rating was 60% in July 2020, the highest of any leader in the world. In February 2021, he enjoyed a 65% approval rate.

[MadMonk]

Unfinished business, they're going to fix the bordergore.


The major river looks like a comfy new boundary.

And what, split Kiev down the middle? Recreate East and West Berlin?

I understand the Russian position in regards to NATO. Having either Belarus or Ukraine join the military alliance would be the final straw. But how can it be long-term beneficiary to increase anti-Russian hostility in their own backyard? Ukrainians, Poles, the Baltics are becoming more frothing at the mouth than even the Americans. I'm sympathetic of the suffering the Russian people have had to endure and the 'paranoia' born of it. At least their 'paranoia' is somewhat warranted, the Americans are 'cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs' if they have to pay over 5 $ per gallon of gasoline.

Russia wants a Russia-friendly regime in Kiev and they are playing it relatively patiently. Invading and installing a puppet will only make it that much worse. Invading and occupying half the country would be madness.