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Political issues and parties in Europe's nation states, the E.U. & Russia.

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#15167167
Dark clouds are gathering above Europe once again. Clouds that we thought would be impossible but we were wrong.

With a peaceful transition of power from the Putinist regime seeming to be impossible we must start preparing for the worst case scenarios. Navalny will highly likely not come out of jail any time soon or probably will even die there. Russian regime will continue the crackdown on the opposition in any form with nobody being able to do anything. Economic growth prospect for Russia also seems grim due to its own problems like corruption and absence of proper institutions on top of the international sanctions so this is all heading in a directions that are not very comfortable for Europe. So what might happen?

1) Well, the best case scenario is severe turmoil in Russia that will not spill in to Europe. Eventually the powderkeg will explode within the Russian society, this is not a question of if anymore but a question of when. This is not a fast process and will highly likely start in the regions and slowly move closer and closer to Moscow and St Petersburg. Violence will eventually erupt and people will die. But there are chances that the Putins cronies will fold straight away and surrender. I do not think that this is very likely though since Putins regime usually tries to fight to the bitter end.

2) A prolonged turmoil when the Putins regime doesn't surrender at all. In this case the violence will cause another migration crisis worse than we had from the middle east and afrika.

3) A full out civil war which is the worst case scenario due to the presence of advanced weapons systems and nuclear arsenal within Russia.

So Europe needs to prepare to some degree for this already with clear strategic goals in sight to safeguard our wellbeing and interests. The absolutely most important thing that we need to do is prevent fragmentation of the Russian federation at all cost. There is no good scenario for Europe if Russia fragments because we will basically be stuck in a situation where half of Russia will be European proxy which will border with Chinese proxies in a state of constant conflict or a rope pulling match. With all the non-stop problems coming out of this state of perpetual conflict and refugees.

We will also need to take in to account the amounts of refugees that will flock from Russia to Europe from any of those scenarios. People from Russia are not totally poor so it will be much easier for them to travel to Europe. Not to mention that there is no sea between Russia and Europe. This will be simply an inevitable scenario.

And finally we need to start securing our borders and putting more troops along all of our borders so the military conflict doesn't spill in to our territories. Better to be really safe and not sorry in this regard.

While this is not inevitable, it seems to be the most likely scenarios now. I just do not see the transition of power in Russia going forward peacefully anymore unless an internet coup happens of some sort which is very unlikely due to most positions being indebted on severely dependant on Putin himself. May be if somebody gets rid of Putin but then again, that in itself is very unlikely due to him being very cautious.
#15167170
JohnRawls wrote:The Unthinkable is now reality.

The silly season has come early.

There will not be a transition of power from the Putinist regime, never mind a civil war, any time soon. Putin has secured constitutional changes allowing him to rule until 2036.


:lol:
#15167173
@ingliz @Unthinking Majority

It won't be fast but if nothing changes, the situation will explode eventually. Putin being present or not is just a limiting factor. Without Putin the situation will just distabilize faster but even with his presence it is just happening slower.
#15167191
JohnRawls wrote:@ingliz @Unthinking Majority

It won't be fast but if nothing changes, the situation will explode eventually. Putin being present or not is just a limiting factor. Without Putin the situation will just distabilize faster but even with his presence it is just happening slower.

Judging by recent events, there's more likely to be a revolution in America than in Russia. Lol.
#15167192
Potemkin wrote:Judging by recent events, there's more likely to be a revolution in America than in Russia. Lol.


If you look only at the surface then sure. American institutions worked while I am not sure Russian institutions can work at all.
#15167194
JohnRawls wrote:If you look only at the surface then sure. American institutions worked while I am not sure Russian institutions can work at all.

American institutions didn't seem to be working very well on January 6th, @JohnRawls. Just sayin'. :)
#15167196
Potemkin wrote:American institutions didn't seem to be working very well on January 6th, @JohnRawls. Just sayin'. :)


What exactly do you mean? Trump is not in power nor did Trump radicals come close to overthrowing anything. On the other hand there is no limit to what Putin is doing in Russia by outlawing opposition, rewritting constitutions how he feels it and so on. As I said, American institutions held pretty easily while the Russian ones are barely functioning.
#15167198
JohnRawls wrote:What exactly do you mean? Trump is not in power nor did Trump radicals come close to overthrowing anything. On the other hand there is no limit to what Putin is doing in Russia by outlawing opposition, rewritting constitutions how he feels it and so on. As I said, American institutions held pretty easily while the Russian ones are barely functioning.

Actually, Russian institutions are working rather well; a lot better than they were under Yeltsin, for example. As for democratic checks and balances, when has Russia ever had those? If something does not exist and has never existed, then you can't really say that it's "failing", @JohnRawls.
#15167204
Potemkin wrote:Actually, Russian institutions are working rather well; a lot better than they were under Yeltsin, for example.


Based on what? The economy? If anything the boom in the 2000s was a consequence of Yeltsin's policies and the stagnation in the 2010s a consequence of Putin's, merely by the fact that there's a large impact-delay to any meaningful economics policies.

Potemkin wrote:American institutions didn't seem to be working very well on January 6th. Just sayin'. :)


For America is will be a slow and steady decline, if at all. In Russia a revolution can happen at any time, because nobody seems to able to predict revolutions in autocratic regimes. It's actually kind of astonishing if you think about it.
#15167372
Rugoz wrote:Based on what? The economy? If anything the boom in the 2000s was a consequence of Yeltsin's policies and the stagnation in the 2010s a consequence of Putin's, merely by the fact that there's a large impact-delay to any meaningful economics policies.



For America is will be a slow and steady decline, if at all. In Russia a revolution can happen at any time, because nobody seems to able to predict revolutions in autocratic regimes. It's actually kind of astonishing if you think about it.


America is at worst in a relative decline not because it is declining but because other places are catching up like Asia for example.

But that is besides the point. Russia is in a state of full stagnation economically and politically/as a society. What exactly are Russian ideas? Second world war victory? First man in space? Unique Russian way? All are those are relatively non-ideas for economic, cultural or societal developments in the modern world.

As much as I dislike China, they have some ideas. America also has a filter of principles that guides it and the same goes for Europe. What exactly is guiding Russia?
#15167849
JohnRawls wrote:America is at worst in a relative decline not because it is declining but because other places are catching up like Asia for example.

But that is besides the point. Russia is in a state of full stagnation economically and politically/as a society. What exactly are Russian ideas? Second world war victory? First man in space? Unique Russian way? All are those are relatively non-ideas for economic, cultural or societal developments in the modern world.

As much as I dislike China, they have some ideas. America also has a filter of principles that guides it and the same goes for Europe. What exactly is guiding Russia?


Why do you think we need ideals to guide a society? Some Russians are unhappy with Putin's leadership, but many are happy with it. What would cause the explosion that would lead to an uprising? If a lot of people reject Putin, then a few elections would be enough to push back Putin's state and help another one to power. Large masses of people are tied up in their own personal problems. If their personal lives work, they will not risk their achievements for political principles. That is the vast majority. And you cannot make a revolution out of a small minority. In todays Russia it is just not possible.
#15167950
JohnRawls wrote:With a peaceful transition of power from the Putinist regime seeming to be impossible

It's not yet impossible, although some definitely do their best to make it so indeed. The West, for example, using both Ukraine and Navalny. Putin will stay in power after 2024 only if he has to, which would be a failure for him, but I wonder if what his opponents would want for Russia, actually. I don't mean Navalny, who's just a kamikaze anyway, but his masters. I guess the best possible option for Russia would be to align with the soft gay multicultural blue-yellow pussy wagon even Turkey or Hungary fucks with as they like, under Covidemocracy, of course. The Russians should certainly prefer that to a peaceful transition of power under Putin's supervision. :excited:
#15167951
Beren wrote:It's not yet impossible, although some definitely do their best to make it so indeed. The West, for example, using both Ukraine and Navalny. Putin will stay in power after 2024 only if he has to, which would be a failure for him, but I wonder if what his opponents would want for Russia, actually. I don't mean Navalny, who's just a kamikaze anyway, but his masters. I guess the best possible option for Russia would be to align with the soft gay multicultural blue-yellow pussy wagon even Turkey or Hungary fucks with as they like, under Covidemocracy, of course. The Russians should certainly prefer that to a peaceful transition of power under Putin's supervision. :excited:


Blaming "ze west" for Russia invading the Ukraine to prevent it from signing a trade agreement with the EU is tired propaganda.

Someone should change your channel.

Putin invaded the Ukraine in order to prevent it from becoming a normal country. The Russians in the Ukraine would see how they would thrive in an alternative non-soviet environment and that would pose significant problems for Putin.

Putin jailing and criminalising Navalny and his party in Russia is showing that he has grown extremely insecure and consequently authoritarian.

The EU and the west as a whole have been indifferent and have tacitly supported Russia, despite Russia invading the Ukraine to prevent it from signing an agreement with the EU. The EU has not taken any meaningful action and Germany's fence-sitting has enabled Russia to be as aggressive as it wants to be without any hindrance.
#15167955
@noemon

For Putin the invasion of Ukraine was about one thing: POWER. He plays to Russian nationalism and it's desire for renewed national pride after the fall of the Soviet Union. However, what people fail to understand is his invasion of Ukraine will have some very serious consequences such as nuclear proliferation given that small nations will feel the need to acquire those weapons to protect themselves from bigger, stronger powers.

This makes nuclear war and a global catastrophe more likely. I really don't think many people in power and Putin for that matter really understand the consequences of their actions and what that means for the rest of the world. It could very well set in motion, in the long term, a chain of events that lead to nuclear war and possibly the destruction of mankind. That's not an exaggeration.

However, for people like Putin, they saw Ukraine's desire to be independent and more prosperous as a threat to their power though Ukraine posed no military threat to Russia, even if it did join NATO. NATO had very little military hardware and troops on Russia's borders before Russia decided to invade Ukraine. The military posture of NATO was not threatening towards Russia and Putin knows it.

But uses NATO as a boogeyman to play to Russian nationalism to whip support for military aggression against Russia's neighbors. It's about power for Putin. He sees NATO as an effective check against his ambitions for more power and territory. He knows NATO has not been a threat but that's not the point. The point is that NATO is an effective check on his ambitions to control and dominate other countries. He knows that too. That's why he poisons his political opponents or jails them. He wants to keep his power and expand it beyond his own borders too.
Last edited by Politics_Observer on 19 Apr 2021 20:22, edited 1 time in total.
#15167956
We are saying the same thing, for Putin to remain in power he has to make sure that the Russian people do not see any other alternative to life.

The Ukraine signing a trade-agreement with the EU would have shown Russian people alternative ways and that would have destroyed his grip to power.

That is why he invaded the Ukraine to prevent it from integrating with the EU.

The Ukraine was not anywhere near to joining NATO and this conversation was not even happening inside Ukraine, the NATO conversation happened only as a result of the Russian invasion.

We know which chicken and egg came first. The Ukraine was being led by a Russian puppet that is currently in Russia, Viktor Yanukovych. The EU agreement was destined to happen under his government. His government was not talking about NATO in any way, shape or form.
#15167957
@noemon

That's right, it's also the same reason why China intervened in the Korean War to keep North Korea communist. It's also why China sees Taiwan as a threat. China doesn't want it's people to see what it's like to live in a free and democratic society. In addition, it's why Russian intelligence services used Trump and why Trump really betrayed his own country by working for the Russians against the national security of the United States. Russia wanted to attack and destroy American democracy. By destroying American democracy through Trump, it enables Putin to stay in power. A democratic U.S. with it's economic and military might will check Putin's power and territorial ambitions and potentially threaten his own power when the Russian people see how living in a democratic society provides a better life for them. He also uses Russian nationalism and wounded pride from the Cold War to his advantage to create a false narrative that Europe and NATO are a threat when in fact they are not.
#15167958
@noemon

Putin's invasion of Ukraine also makes nuclear disarmament or nuclear weapons reduction less likely because the US and other nuclear armed western nations will see Russia as a threat to their national security and will want to continue to keep and upgrade their nuclear arsenals to defend against any possible Russian attack. People in the West aren't going to be willing to reduce their nuclear weapons stockpiles when they see Russia as a military threat to their security.
#15167962
Mr Bloke wrote:Why do you think we need ideals to guide a society? Some Russians are unhappy with Putin's leadership, but many are happy with it. What would cause the explosion that would lead to an uprising? If a lot of people reject Putin, then a few elections would be enough to push back Putin's state and help another one to power. Large masses of people are tied up in their own personal problems. If their personal lives work, they will not risk their achievements for political principles. That is the vast majority. And you cannot make a revolution out of a small minority. In todays Russia it is just not possible.


Ideals are a filter which we use to have stability of sorts in a society. The West does not kill prisoners of war not because it is easy but because it is an example on how it could be done which also happens to be the more correct way to treat people. I am not sure how to put it in words but the ideals give us some kind above-strategic direction and all comes from there.

Right now, there is already a decent amount of people that are unhappy and a decent amount who are happy with Putin and the majority either being scared or not caring. But the trend is downwards and more people getting angry in the last 10 years, actually even before that since 2008 crisis which Russia didn't manage to properly recover from.

I doubt that anything serious will happen to Putin or his regime right now but that is already possibility. But eventually, this is where it is heading with the peaceful transition of power seeming to be almost impossible anymore.

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