With a peaceful transition of power from the Putinist regime seeming to be impossible we must start preparing for the worst case scenarios. Navalny will highly likely not come out of jail any time soon or probably will even die there. Russian regime will continue the crackdown on the opposition in any form with nobody being able to do anything. Economic growth prospect for Russia also seems grim due to its own problems like corruption and absence of proper institutions on top of the international sanctions so this is all heading in a directions that are not very comfortable for Europe. So what might happen?
1) Well, the best case scenario is severe turmoil in Russia that will not spill in to Europe. Eventually the powderkeg will explode within the Russian society, this is not a question of if anymore but a question of when. This is not a fast process and will highly likely start in the regions and slowly move closer and closer to Moscow and St Petersburg. Violence will eventually erupt and people will die. But there are chances that the Putins cronies will fold straight away and surrender. I do not think that this is very likely though since Putins regime usually tries to fight to the bitter end.
2) A prolonged turmoil when the Putins regime doesn't surrender at all. In this case the violence will cause another migration crisis worse than we had from the middle east and afrika.
3) A full out civil war which is the worst case scenario due to the presence of advanced weapons systems and nuclear arsenal within Russia.
So Europe needs to prepare to some degree for this already with clear strategic goals in sight to safeguard our wellbeing and interests. The absolutely most important thing that we need to do is prevent fragmentation of the Russian federation at all cost. There is no good scenario for Europe if Russia fragments because we will basically be stuck in a situation where half of Russia will be European proxy which will border with Chinese proxies in a state of constant conflict or a rope pulling match. With all the non-stop problems coming out of this state of perpetual conflict and refugees.
We will also need to take in to account the amounts of refugees that will flock from Russia to Europe from any of those scenarios. People from Russia are not totally poor so it will be much easier for them to travel to Europe. Not to mention that there is no sea between Russia and Europe. This will be simply an inevitable scenario.
And finally we need to start securing our borders and putting more troops along all of our borders so the military conflict doesn't spill in to our territories. Better to be really safe and not sorry in this regard.
While this is not inevitable, it seems to be the most likely scenarios now. I just do not see the transition of power in Russia going forward peacefully anymore unless an internet coup happens of some sort which is very unlikely due to most positions being indebted on severely dependant on Putin himself. May be if somebody gets rid of Putin but then again, that in itself is very unlikely due to him being very cautious.
I do not think that any nation is hopeless to change; however, I think that some nations do require a lot more effort than others to become changed. - Verv