[noemon]

This election has a long way to go with a further 26 constituencies and all 56 regional list seats still to declare.

While the SNP is on course to finish as the largest party, there are only limited opportunities left for them to do so with an overall majority.

To achieve that they really need to hold all they have and pick up an additional constituency seat like Aberdeenshire West, where the Conservatives are defending a majority of 900 votes.

There is also a possible pathway if they do better than expected on the regional lists which are very hard to predict because of the proportional voting system.

If the SNP fall short of that outright majority they could enter a fourth term in office as a minority government (as they are now) or seek a more formal arrangement with another party - most likely the Greens.

Together the SNP and the Greens will almost certainly have a pro-independence majority at Holyrood - committed to holding another referendum that the UK government seems determined to resist.

A big wrangle over indyref2 is coming and it could end up in the UK Supreme Court.