[JohnRawls]

If the US collapse expect a refugee crisis in Europe. Should be awesome.

We get it if any country collapses.

[Beren]

Collapse of the US like the SU would be a fundamental change. Just loosing a war changes nothing on a fundamental level unless it is ww2.

This Afghanistan fiasco is only the beginning, the first domino, the point is that they're losing ground in general. As I see it their withdrawal from Afghanistan means they gave up on (a regime change in) Iran, which means they'll give up on the Middle East as well, so they'll leave the whole of Eurasia sooner or later too. In my opinion that's almost completely certain. Then likely comes Africa, and potentially Latin America, while the Anglosphere itself fundamentally changing as well perhaps.

[JohnRawls]

This Afghanistan fiasco is only the beginning, the first domino, the point is that they're losing ground in general. As I see it their withdrawal from Afghanistan means they gave up on (a regime change in) Iran, which means they'll give up on the Middle East as well, so they'll leave the whole of Eurasia sooner or later too. In my opinion that's almost completely certain. Then likely comes Africa, and potentially Latin America, while the Anglosphere itself fundamentally changing as well perhaps.

US lost to Canada and Vietnam which were far more problematic defeats and US is still there. I am not sure how you get a to b to c etc.

[Beren]

US lost to Canada and Vietnam which were far more problematic defeats and US is still there. I am not sure how you get a to b to c etc.

As a matter of fact withdrawal in general is getting more and more popular with the American people, but they should do it anyway. I wonder if where they could stop it.

[JohnRawls]

As a matter of fact withdrawal in general is getting more and more popular with the American people, but they should do it anyway. I wonder if where they could stop it.

There is some truth to this but I am not 100% sure. General American voter doesn't care about foreign politics at all.

[Beren]

There is some truth to this but I am not 100% sure. General American voter doesn't care about foreign politics at all.

They care less than they used to and they care less for their commitments abroad.

[Juin]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/afghanistan-josep-borrell-slovenia-french-sahel-b1913012.html%3famp

EU momentum is gaining force. Upset that America didn't consult them when unilaterally leaving Afghanistan, there is a growing understanding that defence has be be autonomous. We have discussed the "EU Army" before. It makes sense. Rely on American defence means you align to their geopolitics. And currently EU have a better GDP than China. So it isn't like they can't afford it. So perhaps the EU needs to understand their potential. And being a resident in the continent I genuinely believe this will increase and sustain European security... along with global security of course given I doubt there be much US appetite in the future to enter wars alone.

So what do people think? Is it time for the EU to treat the US as an equal partner rather than be an understudy?

There is a major and fundamental problem; and it goes right to the basic philosophy of the EU. Lets put it this way: countries like the US and Russia are from Mars, while the EU is from Venus. It is not that the EU cannot get all martial and fierce like the US or Russia; afterall, Europe, in its history, has had more than it share of hard, macho, aggressive nations. The bottomline dna of today's EU is not martial. Even if she builds an army it would be a waste of money. Armies are there to kill, break things, cause stampedes, refugees etc. If the EU wants an army, that is where she is heading. If she doesnt want to head in that direction, then she is better off staying the US' sissy.

For crying out loud, the EU has to actually bribe Turkey as part of her approach to dealing with refugees. It shouldnt be up to Turkey. They EU should first decide basic things like who she would allow in before talking of armies.

[Juin]

The article suggests geopolitical ambitions and not just autonomy. I don't think the capability to fight wars in Afghanistan or the Middle East is essential for European security. There are other ways to meddle if necessary.

If the EU becomes a global military power instead of just a regional one, I don't think it would act much differently than the US.

Absolutely! The Taliban will still be the Taliban. The difficulties of dealing with the Taliban will remain the same, whether the Army is EU or Chinese

[Beren]

then she is better off staying the US' sissy.

She'd be the US' sissy forever if she could.

[Juin]

She'd be the US' sissy forever if she could.

Putin is the only thing standing between Russia and that status

[Politics_Observer]

@Beren @JohnRawls

American people have traditionally been very isolationist and do not like "foreign entanglements." We have always had isolationist tendencies. But the fact of the matter is, retreating back to America is not the solution to America's problems nor will it make the U.S. more secure. You have to be involved in the world otherwise the world will eventually become involved with you whether you like it or not. Here is a quote from Britannica that backs up my position:

Isolationism has been a recurrent theme in U.S. history. It was given expression in the Farewell Address of Pres. George Washington and in the early 19th-century Monroe Doctrine. The term is most often applied to the political atmosphere in the U.S. in the 1930s. The failure of Pres. Woodrow Wilson’s internationalism, liberal opposition to war as an instrument of policy, and the rigours of the Great Depression were among the reasons for Americans’ reluctance to concern themselves with the growth of fascism in Europe. The Johnson Act (1934) and the Neutrality acts (1935–36) effectively prevented economic or military aid to any country involved in the European disputes that were to escalate into World War II. U.S. isolationism encouraged the British in their policy of appeasement and contributed to French paralysis in the face of the growing threat posed by Nazi Germany.

https://www.britannica.com/topic/isolat ... ign-policy

The main thing that Europe disliked about our withdrawal from Afghanistan is it doesn't appear that we consulted our allies first. Europe didn't like this because they would be the ones to end up absorbing most of the refugees from what I read but the U.S. wouldn't. So, Europe kinda got left holding the bag and so this sort of pushes Europe to not rely as much on the U.S. I can see why the Europeans would feel this way. They don't want to be left holding the bag again if the U.S. decides to do something that might not be in the best interests of Europe. Biden should have consulted our allies first and make sure they were on board and developed a plan with our allies for any sort of troop withdrawal.

[Beren]

it doesn't appear that we consulted our allies first. Europe didn't like this

I wonder if you consult your allies first before you do something in Ukraine, I'm sure Europe doesn't like it if you don't. But who cares, right?

[Politics_Observer]

@Beren

I wonder if you consult your allies first before you do something in Ukraine, I'm sure Europe doesn't like it if you don't. But who cares, right?

Well, hey you know, we'll just stay out of it then if that's how you feel. It's OK with me. You guys do whatever you want to do. It don't matter to me. We'll just stay over here on the other side of the pond and watch Russian troops occupy Ukraine and Budapest and eat popcorn while they do it and wave at you while you flee and laugh. But I do wonder, has Europe consulted Ukraine in any of this and got their opinion on the matter? Or do you just want to leave Ukraine out to hang and dry?

[Beren]

@Beren



Well, hey you know, we'll just stay out of it then if that's how you feel. It's OK with me. You guys do whatever you want to do. It don't matter to me. We'll just stay over here on the other side of the pond and watch Russian troops occupy Ukraine and Budapest and eat popcorn while they do it and wave at you while you flee and laugh. But I do wonder, has Europe consulted Ukraine in any of this and got their opinion on the matter? Or do you just want to leave Ukraine out to hang and dry?

I just meant to ask if what kind of alliance this is. You also should stop with your Russian-troops-occupy-Budapest bullshit if you mean to be taken seriously at all because it's already very hard to do so.

If you left Europe, the Russians would cut their defence budget immediately.

[Politics_Observer]

@Beren

Hey, if you think Russian troops won't occupy Budapest again if they are able to do it and get away with it like they did back in the 1950s I got some ocean front property to sell you in Arizona. I'll even throw in the golden gate free for you. I agree, it's not much of an alliance when allies bicker. And it's certainly the sort of thing that Russia loves to see. But hey, I'll give you this, Europe has a legitimate gripe when it comes to us, not consulting them in regards to our withdrawal from Afghanistan.

It's not right that Europe gets left holding the bag when it comes to refugees and I think our government should consult our allies in Europe when they have had troops in Afghanistan too fighting and dying before we just up and leave. So I totally get the fact Europe wasn't happy about that. I can't control what my government does, but I will say my government should have consulted our allies before making a withdrawal and making sure they were on board with everything and was part of the planning.

[Beren]

It's nice to see that our last conversation had no impact on you whatsoever, you must be of teflon, @Politics_Observer.

However, in my opinion the Russians wouldn't even occupy Kiev even if they could, they prefer using more peaceful means to achieve their goals recently. As a matter of fact both the Russians and the Chinese appear to be more low-key with their military than you are. You just stopped a 20-year-long pointless war neither the Chinese nor the Russians would have gone through with if they had ever started it at all, for god's sake. It's also pointless from you to threaten Europe or me with withdrawing your troops from here because we all know it's going to happen sooner or later anyway, and getting along with Russia would also be beneficial to us, although you obviously mean to hinder it for your own real or putative benefit.

Also, your military presence in Europe means to help you keep Europe rather than defend it.

[Politics_Observer]

@Beren

You can't hold grudges or get too riled up on these political forums. It's rough and tumble here so you just roll with the punches. You can't take things personally on these kinds of forums. Not everybody is going to like you or where you come from and that's just life. You can't let that bother you.

[Beren]

@Beren

You can't hold grudges or get too riled up on these political forums. It's rough and tumble here so you just roll with the punches. You can't take things personally on these kinds of forums. Not everybody is going to like you or where you come from and that's just life. You can't let that bother you.

I'm not bothered, but would you mean to evolve a bit, please?

[Politics_Observer]

Evolve? If you mean for me to evolve down from my level to your level that's not evolving, that's de-volving and going backwards. But I mean hey if you want us to pull our troops out, then I'm OK with it. We'll pull them out.

We'll stay over on our side of the pond since you got all the answers and have everything figured out. Do whatever you want to do. I could care less. No skin off my back.

But if your problems start becoming our problems then don't be surprised if we start throwing nukes to defend ourselves. You guys just keep your problems over there on your side of the pond and don't mess with us and everything will be fine. No reason for me to care if you don't care. Just don't mess with us and keep your problems over there for a change.

[Beren]

Evolve?

Yes. Not to my level, though, I'm not so demanding, but to some bearable 0 starting point level at least.