[Puffer Fish]

The biggest news in Eastern Europe since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

As of February 24 (2022) Russia has launched a near full out invasion of the Ukraine. Not only the break-away Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, but also the capital of Ukraine itself, Kiev.

The Russian President, Putin, is using the claim that the Ukrainian government abused the Russian-speaking population in the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, which had earlier begun waging a war to break away from Ukraine, seemingly with Russian assistance.

Many speculate that the Russian President Putin wishes to reunite the country of Ukraine with Russia. Russia might set up a puppet government in Ukraine which it can control. For a long period in history the Ukraine was part of the Russian Empire; even under the Soviet Union the Republic of Ukraine was mostly controlled by Russia.

Perhaps Putin views this as the best time to strike, since Biden is the President of the US now (which is by far the strongest country leading the NATO alliance). By letting Afghanistan fall to the Taliban, the US recently demonstrated a lack of commitment to protecting foreign areas.
Putin would probably prefer for Russia to take Ukraine before any possibility of Ukraine being given membership in NATO (which would then oblige the other NATO countries to protect Ukraine, to keep their promise). The escalating conflict between the Ukrainian government and the Russian-speaking Ukrainian break-away provinces was used as the pretext.

It will be interesting to observe what happens, but it appears Putin not only wants the Russian speaking Ukrainian provinces but all of Ukraine. Perhaps he knows that there is no way to only just take those provinces without Ukraine becoming an enemy to Russia and immediately urgently wanting to join NATO, which the other NATO members might be more likely to do at that point. Or Russia is trying to take control of Ukraine to prevent Ukraine from interfering with Russia's plan for the break-away provinces, which might even become officially separated from the Republic of Ukraine and incorporated into the Russian Federation. Or it could even be possible all the Ukraine will be incorporated into the Russian Federation, like the situation under the Soviet Union.

To realise the importance of this, let us consider that the Ukraine is not a small a country. Ukraine has a population of 44 million. The United Kingdom of Great Britain, and France, each have populations of 67 million. The combined population of the Netherlands and Belgium has a population of 29 million.
If Russia were to incorporate Ukraine into its territory, the population of Russia would increase by more than 30 percent.

What is Russia's motivation?

Ukraine actually does not have too much natural resources, much less than Russia does. Ukraine does have fertile farmland and has a moderately warmer climate than most of Russia.

There are multiple reasons why Russia may want to control Ukraine

1. Russia wants to create a barrier to possible invasion, being concerned the territory of Ukraine could be used in the future to launch an attack against Russia.
2. If asking whether the Ukraine constitutes a "separate nation" (in terms of history, culture, ethnicity, language) from Russia, the answer is somewhere between yes and no. This makes things complicated.
3. Putin views it as only a mere historical accident that the Ukraine was able to separate from Russia as an independent country. Putin wants the nation of Russia to be great and restore historically lost territory under its control, as during the Russian Empire or Soviet Union.
4. Russia is concerned about the European Union and NATO becoming too powerful. The incorporation of Ukraine into the European union and NATO would only tip the balance even more. Putin does not wish the position of Russia's adversaries to be strengthened more, since the Ukraine is both a sizable country and is right at Russia's doorstep. Russia prefers to maintain buffer states, a common strategy many powerful countries have historically used to make their own defense easier.
5. The Russians in Ukraine are more loyal to Russia and less loyal to Ukraine due to language. Putin probably did not wish to lose this advantage in the Russian-speaking provinces in Ukraine, since the Ukrainian government was going to try to greatly reduce the use of the Russian language. It would have been a relatively small loss to Russia, but a loss nonetheless. If fewer people speak Russian, there are fewer "Russians". This has more to do with protecting long-term Russian interests than any immediate benefit to Putin.

[Atulya Mishra]

To quote Tulsi Gabbard -
"This war and suffering could have easily been avoided if Biden Admin/NATO had simply acknowledged Russia’s legitimate security concerns regarding Ukraine’s becoming a member of NATO, which would mean US/NATO forces right on Russia’s border"

[Patrickov]

To quote Tulsi Gabbard -
"This war and suffering could have easily been avoided if Biden Admin/NATO had simply acknowledged Russia’s legitimate security concerns regarding Ukraine’s becoming a member of NATO, which would mean US/NATO forces right on Russia’s border"

The problem is Russia does NOT have legitimate security concerns.

I am not saying what they worry is "wrong" (I would have similar worries if I were actually a Russian),
I am merely saying its very need of Lebensraum inevitably threatens others.

To the rest of the World, it's not an exaggeration if I say it's of our best interest to reduce Russia into the Muscovite Duchy it used to be.

You may read the article I translated earlier this week and understand why I say so.

[Atulya Mishra]

Admin Edit: Rule 3 Violation Antisemitism

[Rancid]

To the rest of the World, it's not an exaggeration if I say it's of our best interest to reduce Russia into the Muscovite Duchy it used to be.

I'm not sure that's even needed. All that is needed is a system in Russia that is basically not authoritarian and truly sticks to principles of democracy by minimizing corruption. At that point, it will be like any other European nation and have good relations with the west. This would be wonderful to counter the CCP scourge, one less friend for Xi jingping.

In order for the above to happen, it must happening internally though, it cannot be forced onto Russia by the military aggression from the west. THis is why it's important to support Ukraine. It needs to be made obvious that you can be successful when you have good relations with the west and are not an authoritarian shit hole.

[Oxymoron]

I am team Russia on this one

[Rancid]

I am team Russia on this one

Welcome home.

You are on the wrong team.

[Oxymoron]

Welcome home.

You are on the wrong team.

Thanks I think I on right team. Admin Edit: Removed

[Skynet]

Thanks I think I on right team.

The Holdomor was more brutal then the Shoa. 10 Million died and they died slowly by hunger, very slowly.

[Oxymoron]

The Holdomor was more brutal then the Shoa. 10 Million died and they died slowly by hunger, very slowly.

Soviets/Communist regime headed by a Georgian were responsible for the Holdomor not Russia...

[Skynet]

Soviets/Communist regime headed by a Georgian were responsible for the Holdomor not Russia...

Putin Grandpa was Stalins Cook, Stalin was probably Abchasian (A Russian recognized republic), but he rusified... Even to his daughter he said can you not marry a Russian as she felt in love in an Indian...

[Oxymoron]

Putin Grandpa was Stalins Cook, Stalin was probably Abchasian (A Russian recognized republic), but he rusified... Even to his daughter he said can you not marry a Russian...

Ok that is sound logic

[jimjam]

Putin, it seems, has morphed into a megalomanic over the past few years. Megalomaniacs are generally quite effective with shorter term logistics and less effective in the longer run. I suspect that Putin will win round one of his land/power grab but i have seen some disquieting developments for Vladimir as his war gets started. The Ukrainians are tough and pissed off. They are not waiting for Putin's trained killing squad to approach them. They are rushing out to take the fight to the invaders. Putin fucked up by giving Ukraine months to prepare. They have been stocking up on stinger anti aircraft rockets, javelin anti tank rockets and multiple rocket launch systems. All Ukranian males between the ages of 18 and 60 have been blocked from leaving the country and being handed weapons to employ for street fighting. Radio stations are broadcasting instructions on how to prepare Molotov ( ) cocktails. Ukraine has destroyed a Russian air base 17 miles inside of Russia. First indications are that the Russian advance has been slowed.

O.K. Russia "wins" but as Vietnamese General Giap succinctly noted, "We live here." Russia is now bogged down in round two where armed "civilians" eager to kill Russians are everywhere and nowhere. On the world scene? Russians are unwelcome pariahs ....... so much for Putin's ego driven thirst for respect.

Stay tuned ..........

[BlutoSays]

62 percent of voters say Putin wouldn't have invaded Ukraine if Trump were president: poll
By Caroline Vakil - 02/25/22 05:36 PM EST, TheHill.com

A majority of American voters say that Russian President Vladimir Putin would not have invaded Ukraine had former President Trump still been in office, according to a new survey released on Friday.

A new Harvard Center for American Political Studies (CAPS)-Harris Poll survey released Friday found that 62 percent of those polled believed Putin would not be moving against Ukraine if Trump had been president. When looking strictly at the answers of Democrats and Republicans, 85 percent of Republicans and 38 percent of Democrats answered this way.

However, 38 percent of all Americans polled believed that Putin would have invaded Ukraine even if Trump had been president.

Trump's critics contend that the former president's relationship with Putin was extremely cozy. For example, Trump publicly called for Russia to be admitted to the G-7 and has repeatedly criticized Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Biden administration has staunchly defended the independence of Ukraine.

The House twice impeached Trump, the first time related to his opposition to providing Ukraine with military aid.

A majority of Americans polled — 59 percent — also said they believed that the Russian president moved on Ukraine because Putin saw weakness in President Biden, while 41 percent said that it was not a factor in Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine.

Soon after Russia invaded Ukraine late Wednesday, President Biden condemned what he described as an "unprovoked and unjustified attack" and expressed solidarity with Ukraine. The U.S. has imposed sanctions on Russian financial institutions, Russian elites and their family members, the Nord Stream 2 AG — the parent company of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline — and, the White House confirmed Friday, Putin himself, among other entities.

However, the U.S. has resisted calls to kick Russia out of the SWIFT international banking system, despite appeals from Ukrainian officials and some U.S. lawmakers.

The polling comes after Biden has suffered low approval ratings in recent months. Since taking office, the president has had to navigate a multitude of issues, including a lingering COVID-19 pandemic, a chaotic evacuation from Afghanistan, infighting among Democrats over the administration's legislative agenda and now the invasion of Ukraine.

The Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll survey was conducted between Feb. 23 and Feb. 24 with 2,026 registered voters. The survey is an online sample drawn from the Harris Panel and weighted to reflect known demographics. As a representative online sample, it does not report a probability confidence interval.

This article was updated Feb. 26 at 12:36 p.m.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administra ... trump?rl=1

[BlutoSays]

What I've heard today is the Pentagon stating they're concerned about the use of chemical weapons (poison gas), and also Russian heavy armament units surrounding the main cities and leveling them (civilian infrastructure, highrises and all). Hopefully, his military brass walks away from him if he starts giving orders like that. I wish they would have already, but wishing is not a strategy.

[Doug64]

Some military and security analysts are asserting that Russian forces are overextended and nowhere near enough to conquer Ukraine:

Russian forces overextended, at risk of being ‘picked apart,’ top U.S. analyst warns

The Russian army has “overextended” itself in Ukraine less than a week after invading the country, according to a top U.S. security analyst who says that if Moscow‘s advance continues to stall, its forces are likely to be “picked apart” by Ukrainian fighters.

Russian forces are “in a precarious position if Ukraine becomes a protracted war,” Seth G. Jones, who heads the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in a series of statements gaining traction Monday on social media.

“Assuming 150,000 Russian soldiers in Ukraine & a population of 44 million, that is a force ratio of 3.4 soldiers per 1,000 people,” Mr. Jones wrote. “You can’t hold territory with those numbers.”

His assessment hung in the backdrop as Russian and Ukrainian officials met for talks Monday, after Moscow ran into unexpectedly stiff resistance when it unleashed the biggest land war in Europe since World War II.

With outgunned Ukrainian forces managing to slow the Russian advance and Western sanctions beginning to squeeze the Russian economy, the Kremlin has set nerves on edge across the world by raising the spectre of nuclear war. Russian President Vladimir Putin issued an order over the weekend putting Russia’s nuclear forces on high alert.

Mr. Jones, meanwhile, tweeted late Sunday that an analysis of past conflicts indicates Russia would need significantly more ground forces to conquer Ukraine — far more than the current 3.4 Russian soldiers per 1,000 Ukrainian citizens.

“The force ratios in successful operations are astronomically higher, such as 89.3 troops per 1,000 inhabitants in Germany (1945), 17.5 in Bosnia (1995), 9.8 in East Timor (2000), and 19.3 in Kosovo (2000),” he wrote. “High numbers of troops and police are critical to establish basic law & order. In fact, the number of Russian soldiers in Ukraine aren’t even enough to hold any major cities for long. They will be in serious danger of being picked apart by Ukrainian insurgents.”

For context, there were roughly 170,000 coalition troops in Iraq during years of insurgency in that country in the 2005-2008 timeframe, with about 150,000 of the troops being U.S. forces. By that math, the ratio was roughly 6.3 U.S. and allied forces per 1,000 Iraqis.

Former CIA senior officer Daniel Hoffman, who writes a regular opinion and analysis column for The Washington Times, offered a similar assessment as Mr. Jones over the weekend, asserting during an appearance on Fox News that Russia has “overstretched” its military in Ukraine.

“Vladimir Putin took a great risk here. He’s dealing with extended supply lines, which is having an impact — a negative impact on his troops’ ability to move,” Mr. Hoffman, a former CIA Moscow station chief said, according to a report by the Daily Mail.

If true, Putin is looking at a humiliating defeat unless he can make the cost of resistance so horrific that the Ukrainian government accepts a negotiated peace that gives him a figleaf. Right now, that doesn't seem likely.

[Patrickov]

Hopefully, his military brass walks away from him if he starts giving orders like that.

I wish they would have already, but wishing is not a strategy.

I would like to quote the above statement (especially the bolded part) for truth.

[BlutoSays]

I wonder what it's like on the International Space Station right now given the nationalities of the crew.

[Igor Antunov]

Egypt is on the way to actual starvation.
https://mei.edu/publications/russia-ukr ... at-economy

One of the big complications from this is going to be the impact on wheat markets. Ukraine and Russia together supply many countries from the Middle East, Africa, and the rest of Asia with wheat and other grains. Removing that supply from international markets is going to have a huge impact. Other large producers like the US would not be able to make up the shortfall even if they committed to that. The last time Russian and Eastern European grain distribution was interrupted we saw price explosions that triggered the Arab Spring. It could be as bad or worse this time around.

Furthermore, Fertilizer prices have skyrocketed due to logistical problems from covid, and tarrriffs imposed on Morocan, Belarus, and Russian fertilizer imports into the US. Add to that Russia and Ukraine are incredibly huge producers of potash and Nitrogen. Chemicals are also in really short supply.

Watch the middle east destabilize. This has huge implications for security in western Europe and the US.

And the shift away from the petrodollar is becoming global:


If Russian Currency Reserves Aren’t Really Money, the World Is in for a Shock

Sanctions have shown that currency reserves accumulated by central banks can be taken away. With China taking note, this may reshape geopolitics, economic management and even the international role of the U.S. dollar.
What can investors do? For once, the old trope may not be ill advised: buy gold. Many of the world’s central banks will surely be doing it.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/if-currenc ... 1646311306

[colliric]

Yeah. They're going to "drill baby drill", because they'll have to "fight Russia".

Typical Democratic hypocrisy. At least Musk sees it.