European Industry will be exported to China, Nords-Sream 2 has to go online - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15238361
Cheap Gas, is the reason why the Europe has still and industrial sector.

Russia will halt the Gas exports, if Nord-Stream 2 does not go online.


I am not ready to save energy. Nobody is ready to lose his job or to freeze in the winter.

People will vote to pro russian far right parties.

Deliver more weapons but keep the industry in Europe (this is strategical importance).
#15238450
Sandzak wrote:Cheap Gas, is the reason why the Europe has still and industrial sector.

Russia will halt the Gas exports, if Nord-Stream 2 does not go online.


I am not ready to save energy. Nobody is ready to lose his job or to freeze in the winter.

People will vote to pro russian far right parties.

Deliver more weapons but keep the industry in Europe (this is strategical importance).

Britain de-industrialised back in the 1980s. This is what Thatcherism was all about - break the political power of the working class by de-industrialising and concentrating on the financial service sector. We did it four decades ago. Now it’s your turn. Good luck! :)
#15238493
Rugoz wrote:
Haha, bullshit.

People always overestimate the importance of resources. It's a small part of the value chain. Otherwise oil sheikhdoms would rule the world.


Something @noemon said in another thread is really starting to ring true with me. Authoritarian states and their supporters, put a whole lot of emphasis on primary/base level economic resources. Like gas, oil, food, etc. Basically raw materials and (mostly low tech) manufacturing. They seem to completely ignore the higher tiers of economic activities and development that are basically what defines what an advance economy is.

This is why we see so much emphasis on the myth that the west has "exported its entire manufacturing base to China" from these types of people. They have a myopic outlook. Sure, the west's low tier manufacturing base has been exported mostly, but that is the easiest thing to bring back (and we already see some companies doing just that). What has not been exported is it's high tech manufacturing base, and in fact, we see more investment in those areas.

There's also a deglobalization that is starting to happen. COVID & Russia's illegal war is accelerating this process. Any company that thinks things will go back to the old days where you manufacture most/all your product in one country, and in especially an authoritarian country are going to lose. They will lose to competitors that don't do that and realize that the world has changed. Globalization in its pre-covid form is dying. Manufacturing will become more regionlized. The US/Canada will use its poorer states (like the US southern states), Mexico, and South America more than China for lower cost labor. Europe, will use Eastern Europe and North Africa more than Asia. Etc. etc. Sure, people in the west will need to pay more for shit, but that's ok. It's time to stop placing profits over people. Who loses the most from this shift? China; no country is more dependent on this old/dying system than China. It will become harder for them to maintain their growth (once you remove their real estate bubble, their growth doesn't look that great anymore). It will also become harder for them to steal technology/IP since there will be less foreign business there.

We are not going back to the old ways, and this should be net benefit for rest of the world that isn't China (or Russia).
#15238500
Rugoz wrote:Well then, make a prediction how much the industry share of GDP will drop in one year.


You are funny: GDP, what is with inflation and purchasing power of people???


The inflation will be 10% minimum for EFTA Zone, if gas supply is halted 30%


@Rancid

Excuse but military strategical is the 2nd sector of economy the most important. The 2nd sector provides enough well payed jobs.

later is 1st sector important but the 3rd not.
#15238501
Zeihan likes to describe a modern economy as a pyramid, with hi tech at the top. Kick out any of the lower layers, and you've got a serious problem. If Russia doesn't turn Nordstream back on, Germany has a serious problem. When their Boomers retire, serious problem.

Energy already costs a lot more there, and the price will likely go up.
#15238530
Rugoz wrote::eh:

Industry share of GDP tells us how much of a country's economy classifies as industry. You claim European industry will be "gone" in a year, so man up and say a number.


-5 to -10% at least if Putin halts the gas supply!

Goldman Sachs predicts -2.2% for Germany -3,4%
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/11/goldman ... f-gas.html
#15247682
@Rugoz It seems the economical worst case scenario for the EU and its motor (Germany) is unfoldung ... Do not forget what happened the last time the Germans were hungry :D


The EU has to sit down with the warcriminal and negotiate a peace.

Putin has rather gained in influence on the world. Russia is especaially an option in Africa.

Putin has the leading role in the BRICS! Putin is the only guy in the club who can continue the politics by warfare against the will of the West.



Post Scriptum

I am an asshole pro-Palestine but I buy the huge and cheap Medjol Dates (from Israel)
#15247813
Rancid wrote:
Something @noemon said in another thread is really starting to ring true with me. Authoritarian states and their supporters, put a whole lot of emphasis on primary/base level economic resources. Like gas, oil, food, etc. Basically raw materials and (mostly low tech) manufacturing. They seem to completely ignore the higher tiers of economic activities and development that are basically what defines what an advance economy is.

This is why we see so much emphasis on the myth that the west has "exported its entire manufacturing base to China" from these types of people. They have a myopic outlook. Sure, the west's low tier manufacturing base has been exported mostly, but that is the easiest thing to bring back (and we already see some companies doing just that). What has not been exported is it's high tech manufacturing base, and in fact, we see more investment in those areas.

There's also a deglobalization that is starting to happen. COVID & Russia's illegal war is accelerating this process. Any company that thinks things will go back to the old days where you manufacture most/all your product in one country, and in especially an authoritarian country are going to lose. They will lose to competitors that don't do that and realize that the world has changed. Globalization in its pre-covid form is dying. Manufacturing will become more regionlized. The US/Canada will use its poorer states (like the US southern states), Mexico, and South America more than China for lower cost labor. Europe, will use Eastern Europe and North Africa more than Asia. Etc. etc. Sure, people in the west will need to pay more for shit, but that's ok. It's time to stop placing profits over people. Who loses the most from this shift? China; no country is more dependent on this old/dying system than China. It will become harder for them to maintain their growth (once you remove their real estate bubble, their growth doesn't look that great anymore). It will also become harder for them to steal technology/IP since there will be less foreign business there.

We are not going back to the old ways, and this should be net benefit for rest of the world that isn't China (or Russia).



Retro-'70s-style *retrenchment*, as the Trump Administration started, feeds into global neo-*feudalism*, though -- is this what the world *should* want, or what it *needs* -- ?

You're just touting nationalist *protectionism* here, since the U.S. is slipping, and your fortress mentality is getting the better of you.
#15247831
Potemkin wrote:Britain de-industrialised back in the 1980s. This is what Thatcherism was all about - break the political power of the working class by de-industrialising and concentrating on the financial service sector. We did it four decades ago. Now it’s your turn. Good luck! :)


Well now they work in banks instead of in factories.

Cheaper manufacturing of goods is good in theory, except a lot of the money saved goes to the shareholders and not just the consumer.
#15247833
Rancid wrote:Something @noemon said in another thread is really starting to ring true with me. Authoritarian states and their supporters, put a whole lot of emphasis on primary/base level economic resources. Like gas, oil, food, etc. Basically raw materials and (mostly low tech) manufacturing. They seem to completely ignore the higher tiers of economic activities and development that are basically what defines what an advance economy is.

I'm not sure it's "ignoring", it's also about comparative advantage. The US had difficulty competing with Japan on electronics, and now South Korea. China steals it and sells it for cheap lol. China and India have theft-based economies when it comes to IP. China is better at thieving without making a sound, while Indians are better salesman and will scam you over the phone. Americans will actually invent stuff then bomb you with it and take your stuff haha.

Saudi Arabia is going to have a hard time competing with Apple and Google. It doesn't have many other resources than oil in a giant desert.

I'm not sure what drives the economies of Europe. Fashion, food, and fragrances? :lol:
#15247841
Unthinking Majority wrote:I'm not sure what drives the economies of Europe. Fashion, food, and fragrances? :lol:


According to Fortune Global 500, 195 of the top 500 companies are headquartered in Europe. The main products in European industry are automobiles, bicycles, rail, machinery, marine, aerospace equipment, food, chemical and pharmaceutical goods, software and electronics.


Economy of Europe (Wiki)

We still make shit here. :lol: Deindustrialization has been a factor for some time, moving industries to lower-wage countries, but we are not out of the game yet. With global supply chains increasingly collapsing, we will prevail. We've survived some of the worst wars in history after all.
#15247857
MadMonk wrote:Economy of Europe (Wiki)

We still make shit here. :lol: Deindustrialization has been a factor for some time, moving industries to lower-wage countries, but we are not out of the game yet. With global supply chains increasingly collapsing, we will prevail. We've survived some of the worst wars in history after all.


Europe's chief export is Nutella. 8) That's no shame, that stuff is amazing!

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