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#15263427
The Russians have captured Blahodatne, west of Soledar, north of Bakhmut.

Its been 10 weeks since I started this thread, In which time I haven't been able to find a single significant settlement capture by the Ukrainians, Those that thought that the fall of Kherson marked the beginning of the end, the beginning of the end of Russian control of all 2013 Ukrainian territory, but quite possibly the existence of the Russian state, have been proved decisively wrong. For quite a while many Western Liberals seemed to be saying that the fall of Kreminna to the Ukrainians in the near future was inevitable, which if it had happened would have compensated for the loss of Soledar. But they seem to have now gone quiet on that one.
#15263650
Rich wrote:
The Russians have captured Blahodatne, west of Soledar, north of Bakhmut.

Its been 10 weeks since I started this thread, In which time I haven't been able to find a single significant settlement capture by the Ukrainians, Those that thought that the fall of Kherson marked the beginning of the end, the beginning of the end of Russian control of all 2013 Ukrainian territory, but quite possibly the existence of the Russian state, have been proved decisively wrong. For quite a while many Western Liberals seemed to be saying that the fall of Kreminna to the Ukrainians in the near future was inevitable, which if it had happened would have compensated for the loss of Soledar. But they seem to have now gone quiet on that one.



The heavy fighting will resume in the Spring...
#15263778
The Russians have captured Sakko-Vantsetti and Mykolaivka north of Soledar, south of Siversk.

These are very minor settlements. However if the Russian advance north ward continues it could start to threaten Siversk and undermine the whole Ukrainian position east and south east of Siversk.

late wrote:The heavy fighting will resume in the Spring...

So as far as I can make out, the very end of June through to the first half of October are the best months for fighting in Donbas, for making decisive advances. Outside of the Urban areas Ukraine's road network lacks density. This makes mud a massive problem for any military advance. The off road abilities of the T34 were always some what exaggerated, although its wider tracks gave it and other WWII Soviet tanks an advantage. After world war II the off road capabilities of Soviet and therefore their Russian and Ukrainian successor states armoured vehicles declined.

The Soviet Union was an aggressive expansionist state set on world domination. Soviet military planners therefore expected a war with West would take place on the dense road networks of Central and Western Europe. Western armoured vehicles are certainly not designed for warfare in Russia / Ukraine. Anyway outside of summer early autumn, the best months for fighting in the Donbas, as far as I can make out are January and February. Talk of great spring offensives makes no sense to me.
#15264160
Ukraine will win, but it will take a long time.

No invader can hold a people by force of arms against their will forever.

Ultimately Putin will lose his grasp, and then I suspect the people who have killed for him in the past to protect corruption, in an effort to save their own skins, will kill him.

I don't know when the "Et Tu Brute" moment will happen, but I'm sure it will...
Putin is a dictator.

Dictators who lose wars tend to lose everything.
#15264768
The Russians have captured Krasna Hora north of Bakhmut.

If either Ukraine or Russia manage to advance at a serious pace I will discontinue the documentation of individual settlements. Currently I think its useful, because, it allows us to see that, although extremely slow, Russia, has been on a continuous advance for three months now. Looking back through I double counted the capture of Bilohorivkha north east of Soledar. Apologies for that. Bilhorivka east of Lysychansk remains at least partly in Ukrainian hands.
#15264776
Rich wrote:1 The capture of Kherson heralds the collapse of the Russian army. Its the beginning of the end for Russia.

2 Ukraine is winning and is going to recapture all of its 2014 territory including Crimea, but it will be months before we see another major Ukrainian advance.

3 The war becomes a stalemate

4 Russia after letting go of Kherson will go over to the offensive, but it will be slow grinding advances.

5 "Winter is coming" This winter Ukraine will collapse.

I put 5 in, for completeness, because although I think there is zero chance of it myself and they are not active on the forum at the moment, I think this is still the opinion of the true Russian believers. Option 1 seems to be a view of a lot of the liberal media, while not quite as fantastical as option 5, my view is that basically this is not going to happen and that 2, 3, and 4 are all serious possibilities.

1) Is not likely yet.
2) May-June and onwards offensive will show how that will go. I doubt Ukraine will attack until leopards2 and other mbts become operationally ready.
3) Most likely scenario for now untill new shipments become operational and we see results of their effectiveness.
4 and 5) Not likely due to depleting military hardware resource in Russia and political unwillingless to restart the mobilisation. Russia is in a much worse position compared to a year ago in this sense. There is a bottom for Russian supplies and their storage. People keep forgetting it. The 1.5 million plan is impossible because they can't arm them all with heavy equipment and logistics. They can probably recruit 300k at more maximum and give them sub par equipment but after that there is no equipment.

The more likely scenario is that Russia just runs out of money and can't sustain the war. If this conflict to just end in the military domain then it will be 2024 or 2025 if we continue the shipments and Russia can't sustain the hardware losses.
#15265418
The Russians have captured Paraskoviivka.

Ukrainian resistance remains extremely stiff, and they're still proving capable of successful very local counter attacks, notably west of Ivanivske. However I think the long predicted fall of Bakhmut is not far off now . Perhaps after the fall of Bakhmut would be a good time to think about a ceasefire, if as looks likely, neither side will have the prospect of any significant gains in the near future.
#15265758
At some point the Russians recaptured Tavilzhanka east of Dvorichna east of Kharkov.
At some point the Russians recaptured Chervonopopivka north west of Kreminna north west of Severodonetsk.
#15266080
The Russians have captured Berkhivka north west of Bakhmut.

So on the anniversary of the start of this conflict, this is fairly meagre attainment for a day compared with the hopes and expectations of the Russian armed forces a year ago. The weather is expected to warm very considerably over the weekend, making off roads a muddy quagmire. This underlines, just what a stupid time of year it was to start the SMO. These days at least you can just not rely on the ground being frozen during winter in Ukraine.

Comparing the situation to six months ago, the Russians have lost significant amounts of territory, however compared to the Ukrainian deputy defence minister's prediction that they could be in Crimea by Christmas they are doing very well.
#15266307
The Russians have captured Dubovo-Vasyilvka north west of Bakhmut.
The Russians have captured Yahidne north of Bakhmut.

So some type of significant encirclement of forces in Bakhmut does seem like a strong possibility. It seems like maybe 10 to 20 thousand Ukrainian troops are still in side. Zelensky has declared this a fortress city. I don't know if that means he expects the garrison to hold out for months after encirclement.
#15267409
The Russians have captured all of Bakhmut to the east of the Bakhmutovka river.
The Russians have captured Vesele to the north east of Avdivka.
#15268425
The Russians have captured Zaliznyanske west of Soledar.
The Russians have captured Krasnohorivka north of Avdiivka.

Rancid wrote:How exactly is Russia going to occupy Ukraine?

I think we can be completely relaxed about the survival of Ukraine for the foreseeable future, despite the NATO haters perpetual predictions of imminent Ukrainian collapse. However while I would still characterise the Russian advance as very slow, I think there is a real possibility that by the end of the period of this thread, the 30th of June, the Russians may have captured territory and settlements equivalent to the loss of Kherson and the land west of the Dnieper.

That's of course assuming that the great Ukrainian spring offensive doesn't sweep through to the Azov sea severing the Russian land bridge to Crimea. Those of little faith have noted that the great late Autumn/ Winter Ukrainian offensive bus that was scheduled to arrive in Crimea by Christmas, or soon after is no longer late but completely cancelled. The Ukrainian spring bus is also late now.
#15269211
The Russians have captured Novobakhmutivka, north of Avdiivka, south west of New York.
The Russians captured Vodyane south West of Avdiivka, not to be confused with the adjacent Vodiane.

So despite the continual promises of the cheer leaders of both sides of fantastic advances, breakthroughs and collapse of their opponents. The war has maintained a stable phase since the fall of Kherson, the time period of the focus of this thread. I think the Russian advance since the 15th November can be characterised as very slow, for the whole period, with apparent stalling and the threats of breakthroughs really being statistical noise.

Western Liberal propaganda certainly exaggerates Ukraine's success sometimes to a comical extent, even taking seriously such patently absurd claims that the Russians are losing hundreds of men for every metre of ground. I suspect the claims of a 7 to 1 kill or casualty ratio will also turn out to be hopium. However the Ukrainians have made 4 very significant advances during the SMO,

1 The big pull back from Kiev and Sumy, at the end of March, early April.
2 The withdrawal from around Kharkov in May.
3 The big advance in the north a t he end of August and September
4 The capture of the West bank of the Dnieper in early November.

Therefore on balance I would say from past evidence the Ukrainians still have the edge when it comes to future prospects for gains from continuing the war. The Russians still need to demonstrate that they can hold the territory they captured.
#15269502
The Russians have captured Vesele north of Avdiivka.

So although I haven't recorded any Ukrainian advances I don't want to give the impression that there have been no local Ukrainian advances. There have been. Notably the Ukrainains retook and then retook again important high ground to the south west of Ivanivske, south west of Bakhmut. There has also been repeated back and forth south and west of Kreminna. Except in the case of the largest settlements I've tried to only report a clear change of hands of an entire settlement. Where a settlement was clearly in the control of one side and is now clearly in the control of the other. That hasn't happened for the time period of this thread.

Both sides like to produce an endless cacophany of hopium and copium noise. How many times have the Russians announced the capture of Marinka. However I do think that its worth noting that there is a steady albeit very slow Russian advance within Bakhmut. Unless something changes the situation will look significantly different in a months time. It certainly doesn't look like the north eastern industrial area is going to hold out like the Azov steel plant in Mariupol. We shall have to see whether the high rise residential area in western Bakhmut proves a viable long term defensive position when the Russians have cleared the rest of the town.
#15269631
The Russians have captured Dvorichne east of Dvorichna, east of Kharkov.
The Russians have captured Dvorichne east of Dvorichna, east of Kharkov.
#15270527
The Russians now control all the west bank of the Bakhmutivkha river in Bakhmut as well as the East bank.

There is a good chance the Russians may capture all of Bakhmut east of the railway line in the coming days, however the western suburbs are much stronger defensive positions, and their fall anytime soon, or ever can not be presumed. Although the Russians have made gains, since the middle of November the Russians have failed to capture

1 Vuhledhar
2 Marinka
3 Avdiivka
4 Bakhmut
5 Siversk
6 Lyman
7 Kupyansk

So the Ukrainian advantage has been considerably reduced, but not eliminated. I would say that the Russians need to fully capture at least two of the above objectives to prove that Ukrainian hopes of a reversal are futile. It wouldn't take much from the long awaited Ukrainian offensive to wipe out all Russia's hard won gains since the fall of Kherson. However I think this Ukrainian offensive must now qualify as the longest awaited Ukrainian offensive of the war so far.
#15271878
The Russians have captured middle Bakhmut, as in the areas between the river and the railway line.

So this seems consistent with a very slow advance that has continued since the fall of Kherson in mid November. I don't think as I did earlier that western Bakhmut is particularly more defensible that eastern or middle Bakhmut. However the complete capture of Bakhmut can still not be taken as a done deal, much to the frustration of Russian propagandists.

Russian forces around and in Bakhmut were vulnerable to counter attacks from the flanks, lacking control of vital internal lines of communication. That exposure is disappearing fast. The Ukrainians will need some fairly spectacular success in their first great 2023 offensive when they do launch it, to justify the squandering of this opportunity.
#15272937
The Russians have captured Kamyanka north east of Avdiivka.

The number of settlements being captured by the Russians has perhaps slowed in recent weeks, but combined with the advances inside Bakhmut, the Ukrainians now hold a maximum depth of 800 metres in Bakhmut over a 3.5 to 4 km front, it seems beneath the noise, the very slow progress of the Russian has continued now for five and a half months.
#15274866
The Russians have captured Bakhmut.

So there is just over five weeks to go till the end of the period specified in the OP. As things currently stand we're heading towards outcome 4. Its easy to forget how remarkable the situation is. The fall of Kherson was meant to be the beginning of the end for Russia. I don't think many western liberal commentators would have countenanced the possibility, that we would be sitting here at the end of May talking about the how the fall of Bakhmut to the Russians is not important.

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