Five futures for Russia Ukraine war - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15255630
1 The capture of Kherson heralds the collapse of the Russian army. Its the beginning of the end for Russia.

2 Ukraine is winning and is going to recapture all of its 2014 territory including Crimea, but it will be months before we see another major Ukrainian advance.

3 The war becomes a stalemate

4 Russia after letting go of Kherson will go over to the offensive, but it will be slow grinding advances.

5 "Winter is coming" This winter Ukraine will collapse.

I put 5 in, for completeness, because although I think there is zero chance of it myself and they are not active on the forum at the moment, I think this is still the opinion of the true Russian believers. Option 1 seems to be a view of a lot of the liberal media, while not quite as fantastical as option 5, my view is that basically this is not going to happen and that 2, 3, and 4 are all serious possibilities.
#15255881
1. Definitely not. Its business as usual.

Russia optimizes their frontline, Ukraine "captures" another ghost city, the west rejoices over the ukrainian "victory", predicts more advancements of Ukraine and says this turns the war. Nothing like that ever happened, because Ukraine couldnt have captured these cities on their own in the first place before, and Russia is only even more fortified than before now.

Kherson is a little bit different because Russia didnt force the population to leave. So theres still some people left. Everything else is the same though.


2. Definitely not. Ukraine has lost those five regions for good - and might lose even more territory, unless they negotiate now. I dont think they want to negotiate though. Not for real.


3. Definitely not. Russia is happily grinding down the ukrainian military while they train their new troups. So Russia is getting stronger while Ukraine is getting weaker. Russia literally has all the time in the world. They always had.


4.a. Definitely not. Russia letting go of Kherson is no reason to act since this was planned and went over well.

4.b. Definitely not. Russia wont start their offensive until they finished training their new troups. In fact since their official strategy is to grind down the ukrainian military they might wait even longer.

4.c. Definitely not. Russia could have conquered Ukraine in three days at the start of the war, as every military expert of the west predicted and expected. Instead they went for minimizing loss of life. This has caused the strange idea to emerge in the west that we could win against Russia in Ukraine. We really cant, and there is no reason to expect their offensive will be slow once it comes, either.


5. Definitely not. Its the damn south of their damn own country and its right next to the black sea. So what are the chances that the ukrainian military is unable to cope with this winter ? Literally zero.

OK, I guess its feasible that they might run into problems with their NATO gear if its an exceptionally cold winter. Even then I dont think that EVERYTHING stops working, though. And they will probably find workarounds for anything that stops working, too. Thats usually how that goes.
#15255886
Its too late for me to edit my OP, but hopefully I've laid some marker / measurement points to cover from a great Ukrainian victory to a great Russian victory. So for example you might respond I think its most likely between 1 and 2, but closer to 2. Or I think it'll be 5 but even more so. Please note that for future reference at the time of the OP there was quite a bit of excitement about Ukrainians crossing the Dnieper. Even in the short time since I wrote the OP I think that's cooled somewhat.
#15255968
Don't we have another thread for that?

Putler's only chance is for the West to lose appetite for this war.

Hence he destroys infrastructure, making Ukraine more dependent on Western financial support.

Hence he throws Russian conscripts into the grinder, slowing down the Ukrainian advance.

Basically, we have to be patient.
#15255975
Negotiator wrote:

So Russia is getting stronger while Ukraine is getting weaker. Russia literally has all the time in the world. They always had.

Definitely not. Russia could have conquered Ukraine in three days at the start of the war, as every military expert of the west predicted and expected. Instead they went for minimizing loss of life.




Not going to bother with most of your BS. But I did want to thank your for the "minimizing loss of life" line. That was a good laugh, you may not be great at this stuff, but you will always have a future in comedy.

Both countries, Ukraine and Russia, have experienced severe damage from the war. Ukraine has suffered more, but Russia has been seriously degraded. The size of the current Russian generation of young adults is small. What's worse is that between the casualties and the exodus of males fleeing Russia, it's getting smaller by the day. With their old school meat grinder tactics, they aren't going to be able to fight another war like this for a long time.

The sanctions have nearly crippled their war industry, that's why you keep hearing about them buying weapons.

The economy outside the energy sector has been devastated.

But back to my point, Putin is ruthless. He tried to fake Chechen terrorism to create an excuse to go to war to get Chechen oil. IOW, he tried to kill his own people... He's a terrorist.

Russia depends on trains for supply. When Russia launched it's initial attack, hackers took down the train system. Supposedly it was local hackers, but I strongly suspect they had help from the West. In any case, he planned on flattening Kyiv, the Russian military isn't sophisticated enough to do anything else.

Putin has attacked agriculture a lot, trying to make it so that Ukraine can't feed itself. He is attacking power and water, hoping to make Ukraine unliveable.

Get real.
#15256361
So the Ukrainian deputy says Ukraine could be in Crimea by Christmas and have forced complete capitulation by spring: Daily Mail

As just some guy on the internet going up against someone who should know, I'm happy to say that neither of these will happen. So I'm thinking it might be good to have a dedicated thread which is just about what is happening and predictions of what will happening up until June 30th 2023. But not about what should be happening. That way the predictions won't get completely buried.
#15256394
Rich wrote:1 The capture of Kherson heralds the collapse of the Russian army. Its the beginning of the end for Russia.

2 Ukraine is winning and is going to recapture all of its 2014 territory including Crimea, but it will be months before we see another major Ukrainian advance.

3 The war becomes a stalemate

4 Russia after letting go of Kherson will go over to the offensive, but it will be slow grinding advances.

5 "Winter is coming" This winter Ukraine will collapse.

I put 5 in, for completeness, because although I think there is zero chance of it myself and they are not active on the forum at the moment, I think this is still the opinion of the true Russian believers. Option 1 seems to be a view of a lot of the liberal media, while not quite as fantastical as option 5, my view is that basically this is not going to happen and that 2, 3, and 4 are all serious possibilities.


"Winter is coming" This winter Ukraine will collapse. " VERY GOOD POINT ABOUT Moscow imperial believers

I think putin will be killed very soon , than , only God knows, 90 % it´d lead to collapse of Moscow ulus (empire)
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#15256399
All I know is that Scott Ritter currently estimates the military part of this conflict will be over in summer to fall 2023.


Rich wrote: Please note that for future reference at the time of the OP there was quite a bit of excitement about Ukrainians crossing the Dnieper.


They know better than to CROSS the Dnieper because thats where the russians would be.


Rugoz wrote:Don't we have another thread for that?


Exactly the same ? No.


late wrote:Get real.


Follow your own advice.

This war started at the end of February.

Now is the end of November. Thats 9 months.

The corporate press has told you during all this time that Ukraine has basically already won.

And yet you still 100% believe all their bullshit.

Besides, you even miss important parts of it. Like the The Economist has analyzed the situation and says Russia is in recovery while the west is in recession. Nobody needs to be told in what state Ukraine is.


Sandzak wrote:I hope Russia runs also out of ammunition and the damn war ends.


*cough* spoiler: they dont.
#15256402
It will end when it ends.

Honestly, I don't see Russia capitulating anytime soon.

So the conflict will drag on until the West gets bored of it.

And then, when that happens, Ukraine will be forced to come to the table in a worse position than it's in now.


:|
#15256411
Negotiator wrote:


The corporate press has told you during all this time that Ukraine has basically already won.

And yet you still 100% believe all their bullshit.




That's not what I've seen, but not to worry, I believe your BS even less.
#15256547
late wrote:That's not what I've seen, but not to worry, I believe your BS even less.


Just dont whine later when reality doesnt conform to your beliefs.
#15256549
Negotiator wrote:Just dont whine later when reality doesnt conform to your beliefs.


If God allows such wickedness (i.e. your belief) win I will ask Him to cut me off.
#15256555
The ethical question is not who wins, but who should win against an invading dictatorial tsarist and fascist régime like Putin's.

Of course the evil wins often enough.
But I hope not here, and we will do everything to help Ukraine.
#15256584
Wels wrote:The ethical question is not who wins, but who should win against an invading dictatorial tsarist and fascist régime like Putin's.

Of course the evil wins often enough.
But I hope not here, and we will do everything to help Ukraine.

Putin's regime is considerably less dictatorial and fascist than China, Saudi Arabia and Iran. Its not clear that the regime is any worse than Turkey, although it s clearly a lot more powerful.
#15256587
The Russian 5th columnists have been consistently wrong the past year and yet they still cling to the hope that the bear has just been "poked" and will strike back with a vengeance. The thought of Russia not being stronk is just too painful to them. :lol:

Rich wrote:Putin's regime is considerably less dictatorial and fascist than China, Saudi Arabia and Iran.


Not anymore.
#15256621
Rich wrote:Putin's regime is considerably less dictatorial and fascist than China, Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Was.
Its not clear that the regime is any worse than Turkey, although it s clearly a lot more powerful.

More powerful, yes. And yes, Turkey's problem is Erdoghan, but i would not call him a "fascist".
#15256972
Wels wrote:The ethical question is not who wins, but who should win against an invading dictatorial tsarist and fascist régime like Putin's.

Of course the evil wins often enough.
But I hope not here, and we will do everything to help Ukraine.


Ethicaly you are right, but real politics has no ethics, European economy needs cheap gas.


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