[litwin]

If it's 2 missiles at the same farm, these aren't strays. It has to be article 5! DEATH TO MOSCOW HORDE !

BREAKING: 2 Moscow missiles have just hit a farm in Przewodów on the Polish side of the Polish-Ukrainian border, killing 2 Poles I article 5

[ingliz]

It has to be article 5!

Article 5 = WWIII

Which, given the state of America, politically and economically, might be the desired outcome. They've been wargaming winning a nuclear war since the 70s.

[JohnRawls]

Article 5 = WWIII

Which, given the state of America, politically and economically, might be the desired outcome. They've been wargaming winning a nuclear war since the 70s.

No. Triggering article 5 is not nuclear war automatically.

[ingliz]

@JohnRawls

Try it and see.

Russia cannot win a conventional war with NATO. Belgium with nukes, as @Drlee says, doesn't cut it.

That said, nobody wins a nuclear war.

But I expect Russia will be content with a score draw.

[JohnRawls]

@JohnRawls

Try it and see.

Russia cannot win a conventional war with NATO. Belgium with nukes, as @Drlee says, doesn't cut it.

That said, nobody wins a nuclear war.

But I expect Russia will be content with a score draw.

We will not attack Russia directly, we will just wipe out Belarus and Lukashenko and free whole of Ukraine to humiliate Russia. That should be enough as price to pay for firing two missiles at us.

[ingliz]

@JohnRawls

You will attack Russian and its allies' forces directly, and that is enough to trigger a nuclear exchange.

See The Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation

[Szabo]

The doctrine says that Russia can use nuclear weapons only if it’s used against them first, or if Russia is faced with an existential threat.

Russia cannot be faced with an existential threat inside Ukraine no matter what happens to its forces there.

Ukraine has had to fight with one hand tied behind its back since the very beginning because they’re not allowed to strike within Russia.

I think it’s extremely reasonable for NATO to also use cruise missiles to fire into Ukrainian occupied territory.

[JohnRawls]

@JohnRawls

You will attack Russian and its allies' forces directly, and that is enough to trigger a nuclear exchange.

See The Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation

Right, right. Good luck explaining that to the Russian people and generals and making them lunch knowing that they will be obliterated with no chance of wining while inflicting relative few pain on the opponent for a war that Putin started and is currently ongoing in Belarus or Ukraine. Seems to be a pretty hard sell in my mind. Probably a straight road to get shot in the head for Putin and his cronies.

[Szabo]

There’s discussions now amongst the Poles about implementing article 4, which I think would mean closing the sky over Ukraine. No fly zone over Ukraine.

[ingliz]

if Russia is faced with an existential threat.

On 30 September 2022, Russia unilaterally annexed areas in and around four Ukrainian oblasts – Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.

That you refuse to recognise it is neither here nor there.

[litwin]

Article 5 = WWIII

Which, given the state of America, politically and economically, might be the desired outcome. They've been wargaming winning a nuclear war since the 70s.

[litwin]

There’s discussions now amongst the Poles about implementing article 4, which I think would mean closing the sky over Ukraine. No fly zone over Ukraine.

they try to provoke NATO ´cos they are losing Ukrainian war and leading toward 1917 n2

[Szabo]

On 30 September 2022, Russia unilaterally annexed areas in and around four Ukrainian oblasts – Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.

That you refuse to recognise it is neither here nor there.

Existential threat means total collapse of the state, not some regions breaking away. They didn’t use nukes in their war with Chechnya.

[litwin]

No. Triggering article 5 is not nuclear war automatically.

what else can expect from the eastern barbarians ?

[litwin]

There’s discussions now amongst the Poles about implementing article 4, which I think would mean closing the sky over Ukraine. No fly zone over Ukraine.

+1, 100% agree with you

[ingliz]

They didn’t use nukes in their war with Chechnya.

Was NATO attacking Russian forces in Chechnya?

[litwin]

[litwin]

[Szabo]

Was NATO attacking Russian forces in Chechnya?

No, but they were receiving arms from their Muslim brethren in neighboring countries. And actually, in those days, Russia was a much more unstable place than it is now, and very weak. Notwithstanding what’s happening in Ukraine, I believe that Russia is still a very stable place today societally speaking.

Putin has a quite effective and powerful police force to keep people in line. If you have kids who live there, you should know that things there are stable.

[litwin]