Why France is stuck with Macron, even though they hate him - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15269378
Some of you may have seen the riots and protests that have been going on in France.

This post will explain why France is stuck with Macron, even though the majority hate him.

About 42% of voters are on the Left, the Centre 14%, and the Right 24%.

The Centre is like (to draw an analogy to U.S. politics) a mix of moderate Democrats and moderate Republicans. Neoliberal, globalism free market pro-business.

Despite the Left being the biggest Party, the majority of voters would prefer not to vote for the Left's candidate.

Despite the Left being much bigger than the Centre, the Centre pretty much has control over the decision-making.

The leadership running the Left has thrown their support twice so far (in 2 different elections) to Macron, seeing that as preferable to the Right's candidate winning. The Left did not like Macron to begin with, but over the years they have become sick and tired of him.

The majority of French voters do not like Macron. My guess is, if polled, only about 20% would say they like him. Maybe only 35% would say they do not hate him.

But the way the leadership of the Left saw things, if Macron were not an option, then the Right's candidate would probably win the election.

Maybe about 14% of voters are on the hard Right, another 10% are Right-leaning but wouldn't admit it in a poll, and maybe another 20% would prefer Macron but would be willing to vote for the Right's candidate if Macron were not an option.
Probably, of those who identify themselves as the Centre, if the only option was between Right and Left, a third of them would vote for the Right's candidate and the other two-thirds would not vote.

For the Left, the only way out of this would be to cooperate and make some sort of deal with the Right, but that is very unlikely to happen. The Left is too stubborn.
#15269385
Rancid wrote:Hell yea. Time for militant centrists to execute various coups around the world.

The Centrists have the Left by the balls.

Left's refusal to cooperate or negotiate with Right means, for Centrists to the Leftists, it's either their way or the highway.

The Centre is pretty chauvinistic too. I think overall, they don't really hate the Left, but just view them as wacky immature who do not really know what is good for the country, they hold very little respect for Left's positions. (France is pretty moderately progressive already, more so than other European countries, so when we talk about the Left we're not just talking about a little bit of moderate socialism, which means the Left is going to get less sympathy and be seen as less reasonable by moderates)
#15269563
Most of the rioters and protesters are Leftist anarchists. But a significant portion are not on the Left too, more Libertarian minded, complaining about all the burdensome regulations on individuals and small businesses. Maybe somewhere between 10 to 35 percent of these protesters (overall over the last 6 years) have been non-Left.

So the different groups of protesters are not all complaining about exactly the same thing, but there is some overlap. I think they're all complaining about declining standards of living, or at least difficulties in financially running their life.

They want change, but I don't think they could all agree on exactly what change that would be, what their government should do. It's a fair bet that all of the protesters are angry at Macron though.

Two of the things the Yellow Vest protestors wanted were less taxation on the lower middle class, and lower taxes on fuel.
Something that's not so clearly a "Left" or "Right" thing.
The majority of Yellow Vest protesters seemed to be men, above the age of 27, on lower middle class incomes.
The fuel taxes hit people in rural areas more because they rely more on cars.
They seem to want the government to care more about lower middle class working people and people in the rural areas, with a perception that the government only care about the rich elites in the cities.
They're also complaining about the price increases (such as electricity and natural gas) caused by the country's green environmental policies.
Last edited by Puffer Fish on 27 Mar 2023 04:36, edited 1 time in total.
#15269569
Puffer Fish wrote:
Most of the rioters and protesters are Leftist anarchists.



Anger explodes after Macron imposes cuts without a vote

Clashes erupt across France as police assault record protests to defend pensions

As 3.5 million people marched against Macron's overwhelmingly unpopular cuts, a revolutionary confrontation is emerging between the working class and the capitalist state.

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2023/0 ... f-m24.html
#15269602
ckaihatsu wrote:Anger explodes after Macron imposes cuts without a vote

Clashes erupt across France as police assault record protests to defend pensions

As 3.5 million people marched against Macron's overwhelmingly unpopular cuts, a revolutionary confrontation is emerging between the working class and the capitalist state.

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2023/0 ... f-m24.html


To be honest, France protests all the time with or without reason. France probably has more protests per year than most countries have in 50 years. And most of them are pretty violent be it about Green energy, Tax reform, Pension reform, Employment reform heck probably even baguette reform.

So "Anger" explodes or "Revolutionary confrontation" are not applicable here. This is their average protest Tuesday regarding any large reform.
#15269620
JohnRawls wrote:
To be honest, France protests all the time with or without reason. France probably has more protests per year than most countries have in 50 years. And most of them are pretty violent be it about Green energy, Tax reform, Pension reform, Employment reform heck probably even baguette reform.

So "Anger" explodes or "Revolutionary confrontation" are not applicable here. This is their average protest Tuesday regarding any large reform.



*Very* glib and dismissive, JR. PF already mentioned the 'Yellow Vests' precedent, and *you're* choosing to sound *authoritarian* rather than addressing the issues involved -- namely the *austerity* measures that Macron would rather foist onto everyone.
#15269623
ckaihatsu wrote:*Very* glib and dismissive, JR. PF already mentioned the 'Yellow Vests' precedent, and *you're* choosing to sound *authoritarian* rather than addressing the issues involved -- namely the *austerity* measures that Macron would rather foist onto everyone.


Governments don't conduct pension reform without a reason, governments conduct pension reform because money is a limited resource and as the younger population shrinks, average age increases then the sustainment of the system becomes problematic. So you have 2 choices, cut on healthcare and pension costs or increase the age.

And I doubt that you can argue that French state welfare or healthcare is subpar so put one to one together and you will get a two. Actually I think that Frances healthcare is rated best in the world and welfare somewhere up there also near the first 10.
#15269624
JohnRawls wrote:
Governments don't conduct pension reform without a reason, governments conduct pension reform because money is a limited resource and as the younger population shrinks, average age increases then the sustainment of the system becomes problematic. So you have 2 choices, cut on healthcare and pension costs or increase the age.

And I doubt that you can argue that French state welfare or healthcare is subpar so put one to one together and you will get a two. Actually I think that Frances healthcare is rated best in the world and welfare somewhere up there also near the first 10.



So -- let me get this straight -- since France is *known* for being 'premium' regarding social welfare, it should be willing to *sacrifice* that reputation by *de-prioritizing* retirement and/or healthcare -- ? Does that make any sense?
#15269628
wat0n wrote:
Burning the country down won't make the French have more kids or contribute more to their pension system.

This looks more like a big ass tantrum than anything else.



Pretty *fatalistic*.

More *positively*:



The Tunisian Revolution, also called the Jasmine Revolution, was an intensive 28-day campaign of civil resistance. It included a series of street demonstrations which took place in Tunisia, and led to the ousting of longtime president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali in January 2011. It eventually led to a thorough democratisation of the country and to free and democratic elections.[8]



https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tunisian_Revolution
#15269641
ckaihatsu wrote:So -- let me get this straight -- since France is *known* for being 'premium' regarding social welfare, it should be willing to *sacrifice* that reputation by *de-prioritizing* retirement and/or healthcare -- ? Does that make any sense?


So what is your theory? Macron is just conducting it to piss of people and get more unpopular? I mean, you don't have to have more than 1 iq to know that people will hate this or dislike this. So why is he doing it ?
#15269647
wat0n wrote:
France is not a dictatorship, unless you're saying communists and neo-fascists are working together to pull a coup against a democratically elected President.



You're thinking *electoralism* here -- if that *was* actually an effective strategy there'd be no need to take to the streets as millions have already, calling for Macron to *back the fuck down* (and ditto for Netanyahu, similarly).


---


JohnRawls wrote:
So what is your theory? Macron is just conducting it to piss of people and get more unpopular? I mean, you don't have to have more than 1 iq to know that people will hate this or dislike this. So why is he doing it ?



This is all fiscal / budgeting, so I'd say take it up with the ECB or IMF or whatever.
#15269649
ckaihatsu wrote:You're thinking *electoralism* here -- if that *was* actually an effective strategy there'd be no need to take to the streets as millions have already, calling for Macron to *back the fuck down* (and ditto for Netanyahu, similarly).


Back the fuck down from doing what, preventing French social security from collapsing in a few years?
#15269652
wat0n wrote:
Back the fuck down from doing what, preventing French social security from collapsing in a few years?



Is it a France-social-security *budgetary* thing, or is it rampant runaway 'mismanagement' on the part of the European bourgeoisie -- ?



FRANKFURT, March 2 (Reuters) - Huddled in a retreat in a remote Arctic village, European Central Bank policymakers faced up last week to some cold hard facts: companies are profiting from high inflation while workers and consumers foot the bill.

The prevailing macroeconomic narrative over the past nine months has been that sharp increases in prices for everything from energy to food to computer chips were ramping up costs for companies in the 20 countries that make up the euro zone.



Data articulated in more than two dozen slides presented to the 26 policymakers showed that company profit margins have been increasing rather than shrinking, as might be expected when input costs rise so sharply, the sources told Reuters.



https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ ... 023-03-02/
#15269656
wat0n wrote:
@ckaihatsu the French system is a PAYGO system so it is indeed a budgetary thing.



---



The supposedly decisive argument revolving around “demographic developments” is a bald-faced lie. Whether or not sufficient old-age support can be paid depends less on the average age of a society or the birth rate than on the productivity of society's labour. Objectively, globalisation and modern technology have laid the foundations for all people -- including children, pensioners, the sick and the disabled -- to live in the best possible health, with an adequate standard of living and material security.



https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2021/0 ... s-j16.html

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