Zeihan on why France is thinking about soldiers to Ukraine - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

Wandering the information superhighway, he came upon the last refuge of civilization, PoFo, the only forum on the internet ...

Political issues and parties in Europe's nation states, the E.U. & Russia.

Moderator: PoFo Europe Mods

Forum rules: No one line posts please. This is an international political discussion forum, so please post in English only.
#15309198
Now that is brass cojones... (brass balls, the kind that are between a guys legs. More on that later). France is seriously considering sending it's army to Ukraine.

The unspoken part is that Europe won't survive as it is if Putin is not stopped. Or maybe Macron did say it. Sorry, I've had other things dividing my attention.

Putin really does see Ukraine as existential, meaning that for Russia to survive Ukraine and Poland and a few other countries have to be conquered. Most of those countries are in NATO, meaning the stakes are already sky high. Which makes the case for more involvement stronger.

I am curious how the American Right, which is saying Europe doesn't do enough, and that we should do less, will react to France doing more.

Anyway, thanks largely to the Trump Clown Show, this isn't getting the attention it deserves, so without further ado:

#15309315
@late Are you sick to be happy about a war between nuclear powers in Europe?


Europeans and Russians are educated, this makes their barbarism worse in my eyes... I got the feeling the media has brainwashed hole populations on both sides...

A compromise is always possible! Putin has no messiaha complex like Hitler you can make peace with him.
#15309317
Skynet wrote:Europeans and Russians are educated, this makes their barbarism worse in my eyes... I got the feeling the media has brainwashed hole populations on both sides...

A compromise is always possible! Putin has no messiaha complex like Hitler you can make peace with him.


Helping a country defend itself against a barbaric invasion is the opposite of barbarism.

A compromise with Putin is impossible as long as he still hopes to achieve his war aims in Ukraine. Western self-imposed red lines fuel that hope, as well as the stop of US aid, which is a disaster.

That's why Macron's rhetoric (at this point still rhetoric) is correct. It signals to Putin: No matter what you think about your chances of achieving victory over Ukraine, NATO will eventually make sure it remains a pipe dream.
#15309322
Skynet wrote:[usermention=41202]

@late[/usermention] Are you sick to be happy about a war between nuclear powers in Europe?


Europeans and Russians are educated, this makes their barbarism worse in my eyes... I got the feeling the media has brainwashed hole populations on both sides...

A compromise is always possible! Putin has no messiah complex like Hitler you can make peace with him.



A little piece of Poland, a little piece of France...

#15309324
@Rugoz


A compromise with Putin is impossible as long as he still hopes to achieve his war aims in Ukraine. Western self-imposed red lines fuel that hope, as well as the stop of US aid, which is a disaster.


It is possible but Zelensky refuses to talk... nothing is just black and white.


Russian economy is now on war production.

The selfimposed red lines are smart to prevent the use of nukes, Russia has a bigger and more moderne nuclear arsenal then the USA, just in this sector is Russia stronger as the USA...

Macron has the best army on the planet and it is no woke diversity experiment (warfare is a macho cult).. but this army is small compared to the Russia...

During the Korean war Chinese human wave attacks did not conquer, hole of Korea but just the North they knew the US red line... so is Crimea taboo.
#15309328
Skynet wrote:It is possible but Zelensky refuses to talk... nothing is just black and white.


Everybody is willing to negotiate. When Putin says he's willing to negotiate, that is by itself an utterly meaningless statement. He says it because it plays well with stupid fucks in the West. I'm sure Zelensky would be willing to negotiate Russia's withdrawal. :roll:

There are conditions that must be met for Ukraine, such as security guarantees, otherwise a "peace" with Russia is only a prelude to the next invasion. Nothing I read suggests the Kremlin is willing to accept anything that would not basically constitute Ukraine's surrender. Feel free to provide a source saying otherwise.
#15309334
Rugoz wrote:There are conditions that must be met for Ukraine, such as security guarantees, otherwise a "peace" with Russia is only a prelude to the next invasion.

This is a lie. You're not that stupid or ignorant enough to really believe this. The out lines of a peace deal are very straightforward. The ceasefire line will be the peace line. Russia controls one side of the line Ukraine the other. A ceasefire will give both sides the chance to build incredibly formidable defenses. Both sides are finding making advances incredibly slow, costly and difficult. Advances will far, far harder still if both sides use the ceasefire to build deep underground bunkers and deep wired communications. Given time the West can supply Ukraine with large amounts of really high tech equipment. We can be talking F35s not F16s. And in addition the West can move troops into Ukraine.

If the Ukrainian government and western backers were serious about securing Ukraine's long term defensive position they would have seized Transnistria and western Belarus, instead of focusing on pipe dreams like making Sevastopol into a US naval base.
#15309336
Rich wrote:This is a lie. You're not that stupid or ignorant enough to really believe this. The out lines of a peace deal are very straightforward. The ceasefire line will be the peace line. Russia controls one side of the line Ukraine the other. A ceasefire will give both sides the chance to build incredibly formidable defenses. Both sides are finding making advances incredibly slow, costly and difficult. Advances will far, far harder still if both sides use the ceasefire to build deep underground bunkers and deep wired communications. Given time the West can supply Ukraine with large amounts of really high tech equipment. We can be talking F35s not F16s. And in addition the West can move troops into Ukraine.


There were formidable defense lines in the Donbass before the 2022 war. Russia attacked elsewhere in the beginning and later was still advancing there. Ukraine would have to build defenses along the entire border for sure. I don't think that alone would suffice to prevent another invasion though.

As for NATO troops and F-35. That's the security guarantees I am talking about. You think Putin would accept it? That's a rhetorical question :lol:.
#15309337
People tend to forget that the French now have a small grudge against Russia because SVR and Wagnerites meddled in Africa for example. Also Russia tried to distabilise France several times that was documented and we have defectors. Obviously France will respond in some way.

It took some time for France to realize that but Russia won't stop unless being stopped dead in its tracks.

Image
#15309343
Rugoz wrote:There were formidable defense lines in the Donbass before the 2022 war. Russia attacked elsewhere in the beginning and later was still advancing there. Ukraine would have to build defenses along the entire border for sure. I don't think that alone would suffice to prevent another invasion though.

The Donbas fortifications have been incredibly successful. The furthest advance the Russians have made there is about 20km with the average advance being about 10km. OK that's not perfect, but that's a pretty effective deterrent, seeings as taking the Donbas was the Russians second objective after taking the land bridge which they completed in the first few months. The fortifications on the southern end were were taken from behind from the West and the fortifications on the eastern end were taken from behind from the north. The increasing prevalence of drones have made fortifications even more important. Drones can carry very limited payloads. Even quite modest fortifications are good protection against drone attacks.

As for NATO troops and F-35. That's the security guarantees I am talking about. You think Putin would accept it? That's a rhetorical question :lol:.

It may be rhetorical but its also irrelevant. Putin will not have any say in what happens inside Ukraine's retained borders. Russia will gain from a ceasefire, its country would no longer be under attack. But Ukraine will gain far more. The Russian attacks on Ukraine do far more damage to Ukraine's ability to build up its defenses than vice versa. Zelensky and the western liberal hate mongers are flat out lying, they don't fear that a truce would lead to renewed warfare. They fear that if the war against Russia is stopped, they will never get to restart it.
#15309354
Rich wrote:The Donbas fortifications have been incredibly successful. The furthest advance the Russians have made there is about 20km with the average advance being about 10km. OK that's not perfect, but that's a pretty effective deterrent, seeings as taking the Donbas was the Russians second objective after taking the land bridge which they completed in the first few months. The fortifications on the southern end were were taken from behind from the West and the fortifications on the eastern end were taken from behind from the north. The increasing prevalence of drones have made fortifications even more important. Drones can carry very limited payloads. Even quite modest fortifications are good protection against drone attacks.


If find that somewhat convincing, though I don't think Ukraine can rely on maneuver warfare being a thing of the past.

Rich wrote:It may be rhetorical but its also irrelevant. Putin will not have any say in what happens inside Ukraine's retained borders.


The same can be said about the current situation. NATO could move troops or air power into Ukraine, but it doesn't. What does a ceasefire really change? Russia could attack as soon as there's any indication that NATO moves or plans to move forces into Ukraine. I think NATO will only do so as part of a deal. Unfortunately.

Rich wrote:Russia will gain from a ceasefire, its country would no longer be under attack. But Ukraine will gain far more. The Russian attacks on Ukraine do far more damage to Ukraine's ability to build up its defenses than vice versa.


If Ukraine gains more, Russia doesn't want one and vice versa.

Rich wrote:Zelensky and the western liberal hate mongers are flat out lying, they don't fear that a truce would lead to renewed warfare. They fear that if the war against Russia is stopped, they will never get to restart it.


Or maybe you are simply wrong. :roll:
#15309444
@Rugoz You are a fuckin' moralist, Russia could start a "first strike" a possible Russian world domination where the Rubel instead of Dollar rules.. Russian Army under Putin is rather prepared to win the ultimative nuclear world war not the coventional.

They could anhiliate the 62 countries who supplied weapons to Ukraine could be "plan B" of the Kremlin if they loose the conentinal battle.

Putin knows jut guns and nukes.

EU is not prepared on nuclear war, but Russia, their airdefense is made to stop intercontinental rockets...



This is at risk a WW3 victory by Russia
Last edited by Skynet on 28 Mar 2024 19:37, edited 1 time in total.
#15309453
Skynet wrote:@Rugoz You are a fuckin' moralist, Russia could start a "first strike" a possible Russian world domination where the Rubel instead of Dollar rules.. Russian Army under Putin is rather prepared to win the ultimative nuclear world war not the coventional.

They could anhiliate the 62 countries who supplied weapons to Ukraine could be "plan B" of the Kremlin if they loose the conentinal battle.

Putin knows jut guns and nukes.

EU is not prepared on nuclear war, but Russia, their airdefense is made to stop intercontinental rockets...



This is at risk a WW3 victory by Russia


Yeah okay, first of all, corrupt dipshits steal money to live a rich life and not to commit suicide.

Second of all, If you wanna play the nuke game just remember, we will get hurt a bit but we will devastate you and then come to Russia to hang the rest.
#15309455
JohnRawls wrote:People tend to forget that the French now have a small grudge against Russia because SVR and Wagnerites meddled in Africa for example. Also Russia tried to distabilise France several times that was documented and we have defectors. Obviously France will respond in some way.

It took some time for France to realize that but Russia won't stop unless being stopped dead in its tracks.

Image


France is also being quite active with Armenia IIRC.
#15309554
Skynet wrote:

EU is not prepared on nuclear war, but Russia, their airdefense is made to stop intercontinental rockets...


This is at risk a WW3 victory by Russia




Overwhelming missile defenses is easy.

Russia is cold and poor, a nuclear conflict would end Russia as a country.
#15309555
Skynet wrote:@Rugoz You are a fuckin' moralist, Russia could start a "first strike" a possible Russian world domination where the Rubel instead of Dollar rules.. Russian Army under Putin is rather prepared to win the ultimative nuclear world war not the coventional.


Blah blah. If Russia uses nukes, the rest of the world will turn against Russia, including China. Putin's regime would not survive it. Regime survival trumps everything else.

I actually have a sun hat for wearing outside at […]

The op is literally just an attempt to explain lo[…]

How Transphobic Are You?

This is because studies, like all knowledge of the[…]

Russia-Ukraine War 2022

Europe re-militarizes is the only one way to go, […]