[Tainari88]

Almost certainly not. Like Trump, he’s a false prophet, a fake messiah. Like Trump, he acts like a wild man, so people think he can shake things up and change things. But, just like Trump, he probably doesn’t want to do the unglamorous and thankless work required to actually make positive changes in Argentina’s economy and political culture. We’ll see though….

I think this is what his future is going to look like:

Sing it with me darling,

Lets go....Milei machines ready to go, are you hanging on the edge of your seat,

Milei is going to bite the dust, he can't stand the heat....of his shitty libertarian austerity shock doctrine,

Another one bites the dust.

[Beren]

Any guesses on whether for how long Milei will last out as president?

[JohnRawls]

Any guesses on whether for how long Milei will last out as president?

Predicting South American political change is a fools game. One decade you might have the most prosperous country in the world then you will elect a socialist that will run your country in to the ground. Or a military Junta will take over or a right wing dictator. Politically South America is the most dysfunctional place in the world. Things do not make sense there that is probably why the region is so underdeveloped.

Well if he invades Falklands again then probably not long. I can tell you that.

[Tainari88]

Pretty much nobody does that hard work in Latin America, and even when it was seriously attempted it didn't end well. In practice, the protectionist policies necessary for what you're saying led to cronyism and corruption (one case being, yes, Argentina).

At best, you can find successful examples of what I mention here:



I'm guessing @Potemkin may be able to explain why is this a realistic first step? I mean, you won't believe me anyway, will you?

Why should I believe a lot of what you say Wat0n? You lie a lot Señor and distort. It is pretty bad. I really have little respect for that.

TTP believes what he writes and he is sincere about it. I do not agree with his many thoughts. But I know he is sincere and up front about it. I will always respect that. I do not respect lies from people who are intelligent but prefer smearing because they want to do what? Win? Curry favor? Have to seek attention anyway they can?

Lol.

I think you are a bright kid. But you lie too much for me to tolerate that for long. No me apetece.

What I really like about Potemkin is he is a scientist in his mind. And he likes facts and he likes realism. He likes results. And he is just.

He does not bullshit me or has ever tried to do so.

He does have his male pride that I have ran into on occasion.

Lol.

Your behavior counts in debates Wat0n.

I will never debate like Potemkin does.

He is to the point, no drama, no passionate style, he is just steady laser focused, backs it with evidence and then judges in his brain if the reply is worth it or not?

He is efficient.

Unlike your experiences with the Left or thoughts about it, I have seen and been with Leftists that are scientific, efficient, and do a good job at making for a better society. They transform their nations for a better future.

Good governance and good administrators and great systems rely on really great people. Who place universal human rights, and universally humane values at the center of their entire administrations. The corrupt, the sold out, the lazy and the unprincipled rarely are missed in this world Wat0n. They are quickly thrown in the ash bin of history and blown away by the winds of failure to do for others as you would like for them to do to you. Total selfish ineffective people with little to show to their societies but temporary nonsense that is shown to be flawed and useless.

[Tainari88]

Predicting South American political change is a fools game. One decade you might have the most prosperous country in the world then you will elect a socialist that will run your country in to the ground. Or a military Junta will take over or a right wing dictator. Politically South America is the most dysfunctional place in the world. Things do not make sense there that is probably why the region is so underdeveloped.

Well if he invades Falklands again then probably not long. I can tell you that.

You are not convinced about Milei? Why does this not surprise me eh? Lol.

No one can be convinced with that speech of his. There is no money.

I had to run into a Superintendent of school district who said that...three times. Do not ask me for money, there is no money, no money. Talk about something else but money. Later it was revealed he was making $350,000 dollars a year in guaranteed salary, paid for car, paid for private parking, if the school district had lower test scores, high drop out rates for that public school system and overcrowded classrooms and staff shortages, etc he was not held personally responsible for the results. He got all the benefits and none of the downside. I read his contract.

Milei reminds me of that man's first speech at the School Board. Don't ask for money. because the money I am after...is going to be MY MONEY.

BTW, John Rawls, you should study all the nations of South America individually. They are not all the same. They vary a lot. And they have a lot of natural resources. For example, Paraguay has under the ground enough clean, potable water to support 8 billion people for the next 400 years. It has the lungs of the planet. It has the oxygen.

Again, if the money for infrastructure were about honest and good policy and working hard on fixing problems? Knowing the cultures like I do? There is no greater goal than that. The South Americans are not cold, unfeeling or calculating unsocial people. They are passionate, like the Argentinos are, and warm, and smart, and hardworking and industrious and also very diverse, and full of everything humanity is capable of.

What needs to happen is for democracies to be about the ones who need security, education, housing and stability and not have a few elites run things to benefit outside interests the most. And not their own native societies. Can't be sellouts. Sellouts suck. They suck in the USA system and they suck in Russia, they suck in the UK, or any country in the world.

Any person who will sellout their own people in order for them to live well and fuck the rest? Should never be allowed into positions of power John. The sellouts are the biggest problem in this world.

That and indifferent people who do not care about anything. Who can't muster to vote or to be involved hoping that problems get solved without any effort.

Those sink a society faster than you can imagine. Because corrupt and rotten people will fill the vacuum of power.

How do you think George Santos became a congressman in the US congress? He filled a power vacuum because not enough decent candidates did the hard work of running a campaign honestly and doing the job that it requires. The lying fakers are gonna lie and fake.

The job of the voters is to vet these assholes. If they do not? You sat on your ass...look who took over...

[Beren]

Well if he invades Falklands again then probably not long. I can tell you that.

You can't tell much then.

However, what I'm curious about is if how feasible his shock therapy in Argentina could be, especially in a democratic political environment.

[JohnRawls]

You can't tell much then.

However, what I'm curious about is if how feasible his shock therapy in Argentina could be, especially in a democratic political environment.

Inconsequential for now at least. He devalued the peso to 800 from 400 but its market value was already 1000 on the black market/real market. So he didn't really do much honestly. He didn't cut government expenses yet either or anything really. So my question is, what shock therapy for now?

@Tainari88

Who cares about speeches. They are just words. Look at what he does. He promised a shock therapy and there is no money everyone knows that. His shock therapy right now is a nothing burger. Market value of the peso is already 1000 to 1 so him moving it officially to 800 to 1 is what? Nothing? Well okay, may be the government will work more according to market expectations but it is not even the real value of the peso.

[Beren]

So my question is, what shock therapy for now?

He's promising a shock therapy anyway. However, my original question as to whether for how long he'll last out is still valid even if there won't be a shock therapy.

[Tainari88]

Inconsequential for now at least. He devalued the peso to 800 from 400 but its market value was already 1000 on the black market/real market. So he didn't really do much honestly. He didn't cut government expenses yet either or anything really. So my question is, what shock therapy for now?

@Tainari88

Who cares about speeches. They are just words. Look at what he does. He promised a shock therapy and there is no money everyone knows that. His shock therapy right now is a nothing burger. Market value of the peso is already 1000 to 1 so him moving it officially to 800 to 1 is what? Nothing? Well okay, may be the government will work more according to market expectations but it is not even the real value of the peso.

Yes, many said Trump was all a bunch of lies. Which they were. But he was dead serious about his power seat.

Lol.

I knew that he was a power vacuum symptom when he talked about watching TV and news programs and calling people. Any president that watches TV when they are supposed to be running a nation is not going to
dealing with anything at all of any real substance. He still says he is going to replace Obamacare with something better.

He never did. He said that Obama was not really an American because the Birth Certificate issue. It was all to create doubt.

The shock doctrine is not going to work folks.

The Argentine peso and the inflation is out of control.

He believes that libertarian solutions with austerity are going to bring solutions to the economy.

John, you should realize that words to matter. Because they will give you hints about what comes down the road. Sometimes what politicians do not talk about at all, matters a lot more than what they do talk about a lot. Milei talked about hating socialism. Blame socialism. Then tell people the shock is going to have to come.

Shock about what? He is slashing everything and basically doing the program that Grover Norquist endorsed long ago for the Republican Party.

And what has the Republican Party become? The answer is in the language. And the way they deliver their agendas.

Here is Grover John. He is the reason the Republican party is in crisis.

They want to eliminate government. Drown it in a bathtub. Get rid of it. Destroy it.

Why? Because the government is subject to voting and so on...and if you are a true libertarian governments are collectivist organizations. And Milei are haters of collectivism.

If you can explode the government you can set up private corporations as the rulers of society. No taxes to the government. Starve the government of money. All money remains in the hands of the privatization industries. Corporations. Period. Pledge.

Milei is their man.

Norquist is their man too.

It is the first of a series of shocks.

[wat0n]

Why should I believe a lot of what you say Wat0n? You lie a lot Señor and distort. It is pretty bad. I really have little respect for that.

TTP believes what he writes and he is sincere about it. I do not agree with his many thoughts. But I know he is sincere and up front about it. I will always respect that. I do not respect lies from people who are intelligent but prefer smearing because they want to do what? Win? Curry favor? Have to seek attention anyway they can?

Lol.

I think you are a bright kid. But you lie too much for me to tolerate that for long. No me apetece.

What I really like about Potemkin is he is a scientist in his mind. And he likes facts and he likes realism. He likes results. And he is just.

He does not bullshit me or has ever tried to do so.

He does have his male pride that I have ran into on occasion.

Lol.

Your behavior counts in debates Wat0n.

I will never debate like Potemkin does.

He is to the point, no drama, no passionate style, he is just steady laser focused, backs it with evidence and then judges in his brain if the reply is worth it or not?

He is efficient.

Unlike your experiences with the Left or thoughts about it, I have seen and been with Leftists that are scientific, efficient, and do a good job at making for a better society. They transform their nations for a better future.

Good governance and good administrators and great systems rely on really great people. Who place universal human rights, and universally humane values at the center of their entire administrations. The corrupt, the sold out, the lazy and the unprincipled rarely are missed in this world Wat0n. They are quickly thrown in the ash bin of history and blown away by the winds of failure to do for others as you would like for them to do to you. Total selfish ineffective people with little to show to their societies but temporary nonsense that is shown to be flawed and useless.

When have I bullshitted you?

[JohnRawls]

He's promising a shock therapy anyway. However, my original question as to whether for how long he'll last out is still valid even if there won't be a shock therapy.

Probably a full term so nothing will change. Shock therapy might make him a hero or villain.

The methods to fix Argentinian situation are clear and does not require a genius to do. Many have done in the past. It is much easier compared to Russia and the Soviet collapse since they already have educated people who know what capitalism is and how it works and the people also do. Open the market, remove preference for government monopolies and subsidies of local businesses, privatise the public industries, let them compete freely on the open market, remove government limitations on the monetary market, start dealing with corruption and increase salaries for policeman and judicial branches severely, cut everything that is no needed but keep the pensions.

This will fix the economy in a year or two and the investment will flow as a fucking avalanche. The reason that Argentina has monetary problems is because their whole industry and economy is one giagantic subsidiesed and protected monopoly that produces things for internal market but does not compete well on the global market so doesn't get dollars or euros or whatever. But since nobody can produce everything, they have to have Euros and Dollars etc to buy things from the foreighn markets. For them to compete properly they need to stop being sheltered and need investment. Private business can give them investment easily, financial markets are always hungry for enterprises that is easy to make competitive and profitable easily. They would only fear corruption but once again, it is a problem of mostly perception at start and if shown to be dealing with it then they won't care that much.

[ingliz]

if he invades Falklands again then probably not long.

We can no longer defend the Falkland Islands, except by a force ridiculously large in relation to the population and our resources.

— UK government's position, 1968

After Labour's defence cuts in the '70s, winning the Falklands War in '82 was more a matter of luck than judgment.

In 2023, after the Conservative's defence cuts, Britain cannot even defend itself.

Without the US, and don't forget they kept well out of it last time, the British are lost. They have next to no army, next to no navy - it's increasingly made up of small, under-armed vessels that only serve to maintain the official ship count - and next to no airforce now to waste on a remnant of empire with no strategic or commercial value.

Javier could walk in and take the Falklands tomorrow if he chose.

[JohnRawls]

We can no longer defend the Falkland Islands, except by a force ridiculously large in relation to the population and our resources.

— UK government's position, 1968

After Labour's defence cuts in the '70s, winning the Falklands War in '82 was more a matter of luck than judgment.

In 2023, after the Conservative's defence cuts, Britain cannot even defend itself.

Without the US, and don't forget they kept well out of it last time, the British are lost. They have next to no army, next to no navy - it's increasingly made up of small, under-armed vessels that only serve to maintain the official ship count - and next to no airforce now to waste on a remnant of empire with no strategic or commercial value.

Javier could walk in and take the Falklands tomorrow if he chose.

How many carriers does Argentina has again?

[ingliz]

@JohnRawls

How many carriers do the British have?

One that was fucked 2 miles from harbour and one other that has no aircraft - the Americans are flying their F-35Cs off it in the China Sea - and no support if deployed outside an American strike group, a sitting duck whose running gear could suffer the first one's fate at any time.

[Tainari88]

@JohnRawls wrote:

Probably a full term so nothing will change. Shock therapy might make him a hero or villain.

There are a lot of Argentinos in Mexico. Mainly, because finding a job is hard. Mexico has about 130 million people and is a very large consumer market.

This is the population of Argentina:

As of the 2022 census [INDEC], Argentina had a population of 46,234,830 - a 15.3% increase from the 40,117,096 counted in the 2010 census [INDEC]. Argentina ranks third in South America in total population and 33rd globally.

Most of those numbers are poor people and unemployed people who used to be middle class and no longer are middle class. Austerity and cutting services, while there is inflation loss of income, and lack of jobs that are secure for the workers and office people who used to rely on a secure government job that has been slashed out of existence? Is going to be a real problem. Milei is going to have protesters in the street. He is going to see them as rabble-rousing 'zurdos' (left-handed) or leftists and who knows if he will shoot them down or kill them? He is very volatile in general.

He is going to be a villain for sure. His family background is far Right from Eastern Europe fleeing that scene. No, I think he will be a really terrible scene for most of the working people.

John Rawls, if people become unemployed in Estonia do they have any protections for the period between gainful employment? Do they have food stamps or food alottments? Do they have a healthy social safety net or not? Or private health insurance or publicly funded health insurance?

Those are the kinds of protections developed nations get.

Argentina has this:

What is the universal child allowance in Argentina?
The AUH is a non-contributory cash transfer scheme for children whose parents are unemployed, in domestic service, self-employed, or employed in the informal sector and earn less than a minimum threshold. In order to be eligible, children must be citizens or residents of Argentina for a minimum of three years.

What is the social protection system in Argentina?
Argentina is a country with considerable social protection coverage, reaching in 2018 around 72.5 per cent of children and adolescents through the contributory system, the non-contributory system and tax deduction schemes; and 98.1 per cent of the elderly through contributory pensions and retirements, non-contributory ...

What is the unemployment rate in Argentina?
The unemployment rate in Argentina averaged 8.4% in the decade to 2022, slightly above the 8.2% average for Latin America. The unemployment rate in Argentina was 6.8% in 2022. For more unemployment information, visit our dedicated page.

Does Argentina have a public health system?
Health care in Argentina - Wikipedia
A system of public medical facilities is maintained by the government. The public system is highly decentralized, as it is administered at the provincial level; often primary care will be regulated autonomously by each city. Since 2001, the number of Argentines relying on public services has seen an increase.

As such? @JohnRawls if he shocks them and removes all those protections because he needs to SLASH and make sure investors feel safe in coming in and making a profit as you suggest and he sends all those Argentinos into no protection because it is the dreaded socialism that is to blame? We will see if he is a hero then eh?

Look at the breakdown of where people are employed in the Argentine economy:

What is the main employment in Argentina?
Agriculture, forestry, and fishing: 6.0%
mining: 3.6%
manufacturing: 17.2%
construction: 5.6%
commerce and tourism: 16.9%
transport, communications, and utilities: 7.9%
government: 9.5%
business, social and other services: 33.3%.

That is a lot of people in social services or government. He is gonna slash them. I wonder how that is going to work out for the libertarian who wants to shock the people into acceptance of NO MONEY. There is no MONEY for your kids or yourself if you are old or not working for a private company full time under the rules of people who are not Leftists and Socialists. You got to shut up and realize it is a new world. Of not having jack shit. The new normal.

[Tainari88]

When have I bullshitted you?

Open a thread on that topic. I am staying on Milei the chainsaw-wielding libertarian. Lol.

[JohnRawls]

@JohnRawls

How many carriers do the British have?

One that was fucked 2 miles from harbour and one other that has no aircraft - the Americans are flying their F-35Cs off it in the China Sea - and no support if deployed outside an American strike group, a sitting duck whose running gear could suffer the first one's fate at any time.

That is still infinitely more than Argentina.

[JohnRawls]

@JohnRawls wrote:



There are a lot of Argentinos in Mexico. Mainly, because finding a job is hard. Mexico has about 130 million people and is a very large consumer market.

This is the population of Argentina:



Most of those numbers are poor people and unemployed people who used to be middle class and no longer are middle class. Austerity and cutting services, while there is inflation loss of income, and lack of jobs that are secure for the workers and office people who used to rely on a secure government job that has been slashed out of existence? Is going to be a real problem. Milei is going to have protesters in the street. He is going to see them as rabble-rousing 'zurdos' (left-handed) or leftists and who knows if he will shoot them down or kill them? He is very volatile in general.

He is going to be a villain for sure. His family background is far Right from Eastern Europe fleeing that scene. No, I think he will be a really terrible scene for most of the working people.

John Rawls, if people become unemployed in Estonia do they have any protections for the period between gainful employment? Do they have food stamps or food alottments? Do they have a healthy social safety net or not? Or private health insurance or publicly funded health insurance?

Those are the kinds of protections developed nations get.

Argentina has this:

What is the universal child allowance in Argentina?
The AUH is a non-contributory cash transfer scheme for children whose parents are unemployed, in domestic service, self-employed, or employed in the informal sector and earn less than a minimum threshold. In order to be eligible, children must be citizens or residents of Argentina for a minimum of three years.

What is the social protection system in Argentina?
Argentina is a country with considerable social protection coverage, reaching in 2018 around 72.5 per cent of children and adolescents through the contributory system, the non-contributory system and tax deduction schemes; and 98.1 per cent of the elderly through contributory pensions and retirements, non-contributory ...

What is the unemployment rate in Argentina?
The unemployment rate in Argentina averaged 8.4% in the decade to 2022, slightly above the 8.2% average for Latin America. The unemployment rate in Argentina was 6.8% in 2022. For more unemployment information, visit our dedicated page.

Does Argentina have a public health system?
Health care in Argentina - Wikipedia
A system of public medical facilities is maintained by the government. The public system is highly decentralized, as it is administered at the provincial level; often primary care will be regulated autonomously by each city. Since 2001, the number of Argentines relying on public services has seen an increase.

As such? @JohnRawls if he shocks them and removes all those protections because he needs to SLASH and make sure investors feel safe in coming in and making a profit as you suggest and he sends all those Argentinos into no protection because it is the dreaded socialism that is to blame? We will see if he is a hero then eh?

Look at the breakdown of where people are employed in the Argentine economy:

What is the main employment in Argentina?
Agriculture, forestry, and fishing: 6.0%
mining: 3.6%
manufacturing: 17.2%
construction: 5.6%
commerce and tourism: 16.9%
transport, communications, and utilities: 7.9%
government: 9.5%
business, social and other services: 33.3%.

That is a lot of people in social services or government. He is gonna slash them. I wonder how that is going to work out for the libertarian who wants to shock the people into acceptance of NO MONEY. There is no MONEY for your kids or yourself if you are old or not working for a private company full time under the rules of people who are not Leftists and Socialists. You got to shut up and realize it is a new world. Of not having jack shit. The new normal.

The whole idea of shock therapy is to kickstart the economy and make new workplaces available.

The reason it is called shock therapy is because it lets go off unmarket principles like protectionism, subsidies of enterprises, regulated monetary policy and so on which causes a fast crash. The reason it is done is that removing them makes the economy work again and rebalance itself. This is important for many reasons of economic growth and prosperity.

At the end of the day, does that mean that he has to scrap all subsidies to the people? Not really it depends what the economy can take right now and after the shock therapy. The main problem is not high taxes or welfare going to people in Argentina, the main problem of argentina is its semi-autarkik economy that can't compete on the global market and is very ineficient because of it. Which they in turn have to subsidise to keep the business alive. This is a negative feedback loop of sorts. They get rid of that and the situation is 80 solved.

[Tainari88]

The whole idea of shock therapy is to kickstart the economy and make new workplaces available.

The reason it is called shock therapy is because it lets go off unmarket principles like protectionism, subsidies of enterprises, regulated monetary policy and so on which causes a fast crash. The reason it is done is that removing them makes the economy work again and rebalance itself. This is important for many reasons of economic growth and prosperity.

At the end of the day, does that mean that he has to scrap all subsidies to the people? Not really it depends what the economy can take right now and after the shock therapy. The main problem is not high taxes or welfare going to people in Argentina, the main problem of argentina is its semi-autarkik economy that can't compete on the global market and is very ineficient because of it. Which they in turn have to subsidise to keep the business alive. This is a negative feedback loop of sorts. They get rid of that and the situation is 80 solved.

I do not think that is the issue with Argentina. The issue with Argentina is what

Yuval Harari deals with in his 21 Lessons for the 21st century.

Harari takes into account why so many people are being displaced from jobs and why the shock therapy is not going to work at all with human beings in society. He writes a really interesting analysis of that in his book. I think he hits the nail on the head. And it is going to be the reboot that all economies are going to have to face. Guess what? The socialism is the answer. It won't be the traditional communist manifesto and it will not be the libertarian crap Milei is peddling. It is actually a creative, humanist and human centered approach that will work. Do you want me to open that book that I have downstairs while I was reading it while eating breakfast? Because to get a citation from his main points you have to either type it up off his page or go and buy an ebook and cut and paste. I do not have the ebook but I have the physical book.

Your version of the solution is not going to work for Argentina or the US or any of the nations with people working these drudgery low skilled jobs facing AI and automation and algoritmos at all.

But what he suggests might work sure sounds like advanced socialism to me. VICTORY.

[wat0n]

Open a thread on that topic. I am staying on Milei the chainsaw-wielding libertarian. Lol.

You can respond to me by PM if you want.