[Rowan.]

i have been interested in Cuba for a while now, and i have plans to go there very soon, what does everyone think will happen to Cuba when Castro dies? USA will install a democracy? Castro will have someone pre elected? hopefully the USA won't turn it back into Batistas times........

[Steven_K]

From what I understand, Castro is grooming his brother (could be some other type of relative) to take over the government after he dies. I have also heard it said that Castro's recent imprisonment of some US-backed dissidents was actually him trying to "clean up" the country for when his brother comes to power.

[Rowan.]

well its good to hear that there could be some hope for Cuba after Castros gone. If USA takes Cuba under its wing after Castro cuba will lose all of its tradition and ways.

[bach]

After Castro is dead there are two possible outcomes, and because I cant see the future I dont know which is going to be.


The First one goes like this:

Castro dies, and someone is elected by him before passing away to rule after his death, Cuba would maintein its sovereignty and since the Cuban people do not know how to live outside Communism they will stick with it for a while. A slow transition to a form of socialism and later to democracy would occur over the next 20 years, all this led by the people who has live in Cauba all their life, and not by the people who left the country.

The second one is the most probable outcome:

The US will intervene and it will anexate the island as it does wih Puerto Rico, thus being able to pump in money for the economy to grow, as well the US would be able to influence cuban policies and economic resources. All this will be runned by the vast majority of cuban-americans, who currently live in the US and who do not want to give away their citizenship nor their political influence. besides, this group of people would stablish an oligarchy and bureocrazy, which would own most of the resources, after all the have the enough capital to be invested.

[Rowan.]

Which outcome do you think will be best for Cuba?

[joe]

i believe that the US will intervene - they just wont be able to help themselves sticky-beaking into another countries business.

The only communist (real) state left will be : Vietnam

[Comrade Juanito]

Castro most likely will have someone lined up before hand or have a hidden son hes been training as a true militaristic iron fist communist. But either of those wont last long. The US has always been bothered by cuba. They will probably 'liberate' Cuba from another tyranical dictator who somehow got more missles from the former soviet union just hid them for so long.

[joe]

if the US does 'liberate' Cuba - I wonder if China or Vietnam (communist) will intervene or just have a go at the US

[AmesMedio]

Not likely. China would never do anything that blatant over such a small country as Cuba. China is ruled by money now, just like everyone else.

I think the most likely outcome is that Fidel's brother will take the reins of the government. The US will strut and fuss about a return to democracy, and the new ruler will make concessions to bring Cuba closer to a world economy. Last year Cuba's economic growth was 3%, this year it is projected to be 1%. Even before Castro dies, I think there will be significant economic reforms.

[bach]

I think the most likely outcome is that Fidel's brother will take the reins of the government.

AmesMedio let me tell you something that would make you change your mind, Castro would never elect his brother because as everyone who knows about Cuba, knows that Castro's bother is GAY, yeaph he is a butterfly to whom there is no respect at all.

If Castro leaves his brother in charge, the communist regime would fall immidiatly, if there is to be anyone in charge after his death, that is Roque the foreing secretary, something like the secretary of state.

However you never know

[smashthestate]

Well since thousands of Cubans are trying to reach the U.S. everyday, I doubt they'd be upset if the U.S. intervened after Fidel's death. Personally, I think we should just stay out of it and let them deal with their own problems, and make a tighter border in the Florida area too, to stop all of this illegal immigration which is leeching our social system.

[Rowan.]

I highly agree that the USA should jut let Cuba deal with their own problems. But as we all know, the US can't keep their nose out of anything. And as Far as the Cubans fleeing to Florida situation goes, it's no better here in Australia. We have thousands of South Asian Illegas every year and all our unintelligent government can do is lock them up in the middle of the desert. in fact what does the US do with the Cuban illegal Immigrants?

[smashthestate]

in fact what does the US do with the Cuban illegal Immigrants?

Gives them free education and free money.

[bach]

After touching dry land, anywhere in the US territory, any cuban is granted permicion to stay, and after one year they might apply for residency which basically means they have the same rights as any other american citizen and even more, because they are allowed to visit cuba while american citizens are not.

[Rowan.]

Really? that kinda cool, for once maybe the USA do something good. Is it the Bush admin doing this or the Government of FLorida?

either way its still alot better than Australia as i said.

Free education not even we get that do we Audacity??? instead our illegals "if i must call them that..." are locked up in detention centres. while British Illegals get away scott-free.

[bach]

Really? that kinda cool, for once maybe the USA do something good. Is it the Bush admin doing this or the Government of FLorida?

This only applies to Cubans and no one else, only Cuban immigrants are covered by "the wet feet law", moreover this is a law has been around since the 60s, or was it after "the Bay of Pigs", no It has been the same always.

Now what the Bush administration did was to "violated" the law by sending three cuban immigrants, who later Castro sentence to death penalty, the reason, well they didnt make it the old fashion way, in boats!!, rather they hijacked a plane in Cuba and flew to the US.

This of course according to Bush and Castro is terrorism and so they were sent back, to be penalized, but thats the funny thing, if Castro kills the hijackers, it is WRONG, but if Bush sentences to death a hijacker then it is RIGHT.

Just to make it clear, I dont support the death penalty either on Cuban or american territory

[Nox]

The second one is the most probable outcome:

The US will intervene and it will anexate the island as it does wih Puerto Rico

This won't happen. You forget what happened after the Spanish-American War 1898. Cuba wasn't annexed then ... it won't be now ... and for the same reasons.

Nox

[bach]

This won't happen. You forget what happened after the Spanish-American War 1898. Cuba wasn't annexed then ... it won't be now ... and for the same reasons.

Nox, what a bad post, first, what reasons are you talking about, I would like to know them, nevertheless, there is a big difference between the year 1898 and 2003, and that is the fact that there are more than 3 + million Cubans living in the United States, mostly Florida. Moreover, all of them can vote, in fact they have a great deal of political power within the Republican Party, in fact once Cuba is liberated, they are not going back and living behind all the benefits they enjoy in the US.

As result the only solution is to anexate Cuba to the US, being that one of the major differences in policy between the Cuban opposition whitin the US, and the opposition in Cuba, Cubans want Cuba to be an independent country, while the Cuabn exciles want Cuba to be anexated.

AmesMedio, in fact China has a great deal of interest in Cuba, after the russians left, the Chinise took over the intelligence stations in Cuba (satelites, radio stations) all at the aim of spying the US, thats something no many people knows, but the intelligence community is well aware of.


Nox, please dont put post just to contradict what I say, without even doing your homework first.

[Nox]

This won't happen. You forget what happened after the Spanish-American War 1898. Cuba wasn't annexed then ... it won't be now ... and for the same reasons.

Nox, what a bad post, first, what reasons are you talking about

bad post ... Hmmm ... In 1898, the US wanted an Independent Cuba. In 2003, the same holds true ... regardless of what the Cuban exile community in Miami wants.

Nox, please dont put post just to contradict what I say, without even doing your homework first.

My friend, Nox does do his homework. You may not agree with how I interpret what I read, but that does in no way mean that I am uninformed.

Nox

[Political Interest]

I hope Cuba stays the way it is because Fidel has done so much for it.