Syrian war thread - Page 186 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15022210
Why would the west invest in Syria?
fuck that country the west have no reason to help them and most of the refugees wont go back anyway
and What is brics?
Brazil poor
India poor
Russia poor
South Africa poor
China have money but if they invest in that shitty country they would want something in return
User avatar
By QatzelOk
#15023107
Nice to see Irwin Kotler there.

He was one of Pierre Trudeau's advisors in the early 70s when "Trudeaumania" swept the commercial mafia media.

Pierre Trudeau signed away Canada to bankster debt soon afterwards, guaranteeing that future generations of Canadians would be born into debt as they are now.

Nice dovetail into our current mafia-bribed and mafia-blackmailed elite and all of their hateful wars to steal from people they don't respect.
#15023582
Zionist Nationalist wrote:"A number of fatalities reported at Sharayat Air Base Syria due to a technical malfunction as claimed by SANA news agency"

technical malfunction yeah right :lol:


You think technical malfunctions never happen at arab air bases? Back in the late '70s, the Egyptians lost four MIG-23s due to a single malfunction. Btw Israel has attributed combat losses to technical issues. Early in '74, the loss of an IAF jet near the Syria-Lebanon border was blamed on a "technical hitch." "More plausibly" according to western media, Lebanese and Syrian sources said a SAM-6 downed it. :)
By Rich
#15027930
Israel should be ashamed of itself.

Despite its far superior military Assad is responsible for killing far more Muslim terrorists than Israel. Anyway great news, Khanshaykhun has fallen, we're on the move again. Its great those Turkish government observation posts are there. They are able to give independent confirmation of Syrian advances. :lol:
By Palmyrene
#15028048
Rancid wrote:@Palmyrene,

What does all of this mean for you and your family?


The Syrian war? Not very good things.

On the plus side revolution is really easy to start.
By skinster
#15029671
SYRIA: Update by Peter Ford, former UK Ambassador - 21 August 2019
After a period of stagnation, progress is now visible on several Syrian fronts – notwithstanding counter-efforts by Western powers and Turkey.

Idlib
The de-escalation agreement concluded in September 2018 under Russian and Turkish auspices was never going to be more than a short-lived truce. From the outset, the militias supported by Turkey refused to implement the provisions for a pull-back from the buffer zone, and shelled from their advanced positions a number of targets including the Russian base at Humaymeen near Lattakia, a cluster of Christian villages in Hama, and the outer suburbs of Aleppo.

This was tolerated while Russia played its own careful game with Turkey, which included the conclusion of an important arms deal (for the S-400 air defence system) vehemently but in the end unsuccessfully opposed by the US. In May, however, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), with strong Russian support, started to advance on the southern Idlib salient, which includes parts of Hama province bordering Idlib. (The jihadis also control a section of mountainous northern Lattakia.)

At first, the SAA made swift progress but then met stiffer resistance as Turkey channelled huge amounts of advanced Western weaponry, notably deadly TOW anti-tank systems, to their allies, particularly the so-called National Liberation Front. The dominant group in Idlib, the Al Qaida affiliate Hayat Tahrir Ash Sham (HTS), also received copious amounts of military assistance from Turkey. It appeared for several weeks as though the war-weary SAA was stymied and opponents of the Syrian government in the West and the Gulf began to exult in what they saw as Assad’s weakness.

Khan Sheykhoun
Not for the first time in this conflict, however, many were underestimating the resilience of the SAA and the loyalty of Russia to its allies. In mid-August, the SAA struck decisively to rollup fierce resistance in the approaches to Khan Sheykhoun, a key bastion of HTS in southern Idlib. The subsequent recovery of this town, which straddles the M5 highway linking Aleppo and Damascus, is important not only strategically but also psychologically, for what is now to prevent the SAA grinding out a series of similar victories ending up with Idlib city itself? It may take time but the writing is on the wall.

The stakes at Khan Sheykhoun were extremely high, which may explain why Turkey chanced its arm by sending into the eye of the storm a 50-vehicle convoy including armed personnel carriers and tanks, and why Syria attacked it from the air, stopping it in its tracks. On a battlefield where Russia ultimately controls the skies, there can really only be one winner here and it is not Turkey.

It is claimed that, on their way to victory in Khan Sheykhoun, the SAA and Russians pursued scorched earth tactics, but is that not what the Coalition did as it advanced on Mosul, Fallujah and Raqqa? How could it be otherwise when armed gangs supported to the hilt by Turkey and encouraged by hysterical Western media coverage to hope for Western intervention refuse to budge?

As to claims that the Syrian and Russian planes bombed hospitals, civil defence centres and schools, again how could it be otherwise when as per the cruel laws of asymmetric warfare, the jihadis systematically use these locales for military purposes while notifying them as civilian to the UN, which has no international monitors on the ground?

In like vein Turkey has been using the 13 ‘observation posts’ it was allowed to set up in the never implemented Idlib buffer zone to provide assistance and shelter to the armed groups. Russia, having imposed this arrangement on Syria against the latter’s better judgement, was not only honour bound to help Syria in correcting Turkey’s behaviour, but also obliged to do so if it was to retain a pre-eminent position in Syria vis a vis Iran, which at Russia’s behest has held back from sending into Idlib its allied forces such as Hizbollah.

Despite alarums the dog which puzzlingly has not (yet) barked in the Idlib campaign has been the alleged use of chemical weapons. Is it fanciful to imagine that the US has intimated to Turkey that it will not be manipulated by Turkey’s proxies into going head-to-head with Russia over Syria, and that as long as the Syro-Russian operations remain measured the US will not allow itself to be drawn into a conflict which would be bound to put it embarrassingly and openly on the same side as Al Qaida? And not only Al Qaida but also Islamic State since Turkey has reportedly diverted to Idlib 6,000 fighters belonging to Jund Al Aqsa, an IS affiliate, from the Turkish-controlled areas further north, in a desperate bid to stem the advance of the SAA. Or is it that the delivery some months ago of the Russian S-300 air defence system to Syria has made Syria less of a risk-free punchbag for Western air forces, which struck twice before on the back of alleged chemical weapons use?

The North East (Hasakeh and Deir Ez Zor)
The issue of withdrawal of US forces announced by Trump back in December and walked back in January has not gone away. It appears that about half of the 2,000 US troops have quietly been withdrawn and Trump recently repeated his intention that all be withdrawn in due course.

Trump’s lieutenants have had some success in dragooning other countries to supply replacement forces, with the UK reportedly agreeing to increase the number of special forces it has operating in Syria. (Claiming that special forces operations must never be commented on – why, when they involve not commando raids demanding secrecy but what is effectively long term occupation? – the British government has hit upon a novel way to participate in occupation of countries whose governments it dislikes without ever having to face scrutiny.)

The irony is that no Western troops at all are needed to prevent Assad from recovering the resource-rich North East. It is not those token numbers of troops who stand in the way of the reunification of Syria but the implicit threat that the US Air Force (and the RAF?) would bomb Syrian forces if they advanced into areas controlled by the Coalition’s ally, the Kurdishdominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). This has already happened on the rare occasions when pro-Assad forces have forayed over the demarcation lines. It will therefore not necessarily be cause for unalloyed jubilation when the last American and British soldier leaves, which is likely to be delayed anyway because of the situation not with Assad or ISIS but Turkey.

The North: Creation of a ‘safe zone’?
For the best part of a year, the US and Turkey have been haggling over the proposed creation of a demilitarised strip of territory separating Turkey from Kurdish-controlled territory, which would give Turkey what it claims would be a buffer against the Kurds. That the Kurds have never launched any significant attack against Turkey from these areas, and that they would be mad to do so, has not caused the Turks to moderate their demands for a 20-mile deep strip, hundreds of kilometres long, which would include a number of Kurdish-majority towns. After Erdogan appeared to bring matters to a head in July by threatening to send in troops, the US gave him a ladder down which to climb by offering five miles of Syrian territory, joint patrols and the setting up of a joint command centre in Turkey. Erdogan has pocketed the concessions and proclaimed the negotiations a success, without conceding any of his maximal demands.

The contested territory is touted by both US and Turkey as a ‘safe zone’. Even leaving aside the fact that the former imperial power in Syria and the new one cannot under international law dispose as they wish of the territory of a sovereign state, the reality is that the ‘safe zone’ would in fact be a new danger zone. Turkish patrols would inevitably be targeted by the Kurds, prompting retaliation and more problems along the new more southerly seam lines. The idea that some of Turkey’s hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees, an increasing source of friction inside Turkey, might be decanted into this new hellhole, appears absurd yet that is Erdogan’s proclaimed intention.

The Kurds have brought on themselves the spectre of all this happening by putting their faith in the US and spurning meaningful negotiations with the Syrian government. Fortunately for them, the record of a previous US-Turkey arrangement in the Manbij area West of the Euphrates suggests that all these manoeuvres are heading into the sands. In Manbij the Kurds were supposed to withdraw and the town would be monitored by joint US-Turkish patrols. None of this has happened. The outlook therefore is for a continuing messy situation.

One scenario Western planners would be wise to anticipate, however, is that after retaking Idlib, now looking nailed on, Syrian government forces start to tackle the pro-Turkish militias operating close to the Turkish border in areas including Afrin, previously Kurdish-controlled. At that point, assuming a ‘safe zone’ had been set up as per US-Turkish plans, who would bet on Kurdish forces not joining up with Assad against the common enemy, and if that happens how long before the Kurdish rug is pulled out from under the feet of the Americans and British in the Coalition-occupied areas of Hasakeh and Deir Ez Zor?

ISIS
A recent Pentagon report was overstating the evidence but not entirely wrong in reckoning that ISIS is regrouping in both Iraq and Syria. ISIS has metamorphosed into a hit and run gang, mounting raids and assassinations here and there in both countries. The report however appeared designed to bolster the case for leaving US forces in Syria indefinitely.

The contrary case would be stronger: the SDF, being under Kurdish orders, are poorly placed to keep order in majority Arab rural areas where ISIS have gone to ground. The Al Hol camp for 60,000 ISIS families, loosely controlled by SDF under US guidance, has become a new safe haven for ISIS, just as the Al Tanf enclave (including the Rukban camp) under total US control on the Jordanian border has become a safe haven for ISIS and other jihadis.

Constitutional talks
It seems almost absurd in light of the military situation on the ground to be even discussing the Geneva, Sochi and Astana (now renamed Nur Sultan) processes focussed on a new constitution and elections. Yet the UN, the West and Russia continue to flog these dead horses.

The absurdity is even greater when it is remembered that the besuited negotiators on the Syrian opposition side carry zero weight with the jihadi fighters, have no say in their operations, and are totally ventriloquized by their Western, Turkish and Gulf backers. Yet it is so, and progress has been announced towards agreement on the composition of a constitutional committee.

It can perhaps be charitably assumed that the ultimate idea here on the part of the Russians – unrealistic as it seems – is to provide some cloak of international acceptability for the inescapable eventual military solution, thereby unlocking lifting of sanctions and international reconstruction assistance
https://thewallwillfall.org/2019/08/22/ ... dK88XUbxxc





User avatar
By Ter
#15032096
Assad’s hollow victory

Syria will poison the region for years to come

Image

“ASSAD OR WE burn the country.” For years Bashar al-Assad’s troops have daubed that phrase onto walls in the towns they recapture. The insurgents pushed the dictator to the brink. But Mr Assad shrugged off the empty threats of Western leaders, and enlisted the help of Iran and Russia. True to his slogan, he destroyed whole cities and gassed and starved his own people. What rebels remain are holed up in Idlib province. It, too, will soon fall. Against all the odds, the monster has won.

Yet it is a hollow victory. Far from bringing order to the country, as the Russians and Iranians claim, Mr Assad has displaced half the population. Eight years of civil war have destroyed the economy and cost 500,000 lives. Mr Assad has nothing good to offer his people. His country will be wretched and divided. The consequences will be felt far beyond its borders.

The precise moment of Mr Assad’s triumph will be determined in Idlib. About 3m people live there, many of whom fled fighting elsewhere. The area is controlled by the hardest-core rebels, jihadists linked to al-Qaeda, who will not go quietly. That, too, is a legacy of Mr Assad’s ruthlessness. He released hundreds of jihadists from prison in 2011, hoping that they would taint the once-peaceful, multi-confessional uprising. Now the regime is bombing them, along with civilians and hospitals. The offensive will take time—and it will be bloody (see article).

When the fighting stops, the tensions that originally threatened the regime will remain—but they will be worse than ever. Start with religion. Mr Assad’s father, Hafez, a member of the Alawite minority, clung to power partly by holding the line between the country’s faiths. His son, though, painted his Sunni opponents as fundamentalists as a way of rallying Christians, Druze and secular-minded Syrians to his side. Millions of Sunnis have fled the country, creating what Mr Assad calls “a healthier and more homogeneous society”, but millions remain. They have seen their homes looted, property confiscated and districts overrun by Assad supporters. Resentful, fearful and oppressed, they will be a source of opposition to the regime.

Next are Syrians’ grievances. Back in 2011 corruption, poverty and social inequality united the uprising. Things have only got worse. Syria’s GDP is one-third of what it was before the war. The UN reckons that more than eight in ten people are poor. Much of the country lies in ruins. But the government’s plans to rebuild Syria risk tearing it further apart. Reconstruction will cost between $250bn and $400bn, but Mr Assad has neither the money nor the manpower to carry it out. So he has focused resources on areas that remained loyal. The Sunni slums that did not are being demolished and redeveloped for his bourgeois supporters. His cronies reap the profits, as the country’s class and religious fault lines grow wider.

Then there is Mr Assad’s cruelty. Hafez kept Syria in check with a brutal secret police and occasional campaigns of murderous violence. His son, in danger of losing power, has tortured and killed at least 14,000 people in the regime’s sprawling network of clandestine prisons, according to the Syrian Network for Human Rights, an NGO. Nearly 128,000 people are thought to remain in the dungeons, though many are probably dead. Even as the war nears its end, the pace of executions is increasing. Almost every Syrian has lost someone close to them in the war. Psychologists speak ominously of a breakdown in society.

Last is Mr Assad’s debt to Iran and Russia. He owes his victory to their supply of firepower, advice and money and their willingness to back a pariah. They will expect to be paid, with interest.

For Syrians, therefore, Mr Assad’s victory is a catastrophe. But his opponents are exhausted so, in spite of his weaknesses, he could yet cling to power for years. And for as long as he is in charge, Syria’s misery will spread across the region.

The war has already drawn in a handful of outside powers, but the chaos could grow. Iran treats Syria as a second front against Israel to complement Hizbullah, its proxy in Lebanon. Israel has launched hundreds of air strikes on Iranian positions during the war. One in August prevented Iranian and Hizbullah operatives from attacking Israel with armed drones, the Israeli army says. Turkey, which has troops in the north, is threatening to launch an offensive against Kurdish forces, whom it considers terrorists, near its border. That could lead to a face-off with America, which supports the Kurds and had been trying to calm the Turks.

Refugees will destabilise Syria’s neighbours, too. Those who have fled Mr Assad do not want to go home—indeed their numbers will grow because of the offensive in Idlib. The longer they stay in camps, the greater the danger that they become a permanent, festering diaspora. They are already unsettling host countries, such as Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey, where many locals accuse them of draining resources and taking jobs. Turkey is sending some back, even to places like Idlib.

And that could spill over into the wider world. Dispossessed at home and unwanted abroad, refugees are at risk of radicalisation. Mr Assad’s ruthless tactics have left large parts of his population bitter and alienated. His prisons will incubate extremism. What better breeding ground for al-Qaeda and Islamic State (IS), which the American government says is already “resurging in Syria”? In May America dropped 54 bombs and missiles on jihadists in Iraq and Syria. That number rose to over 100 in each of June and July.

Having failed to act in the war’s early days, when they might have pushed the dictator out, Western countries can do little now to change Syria’s course. Some European leaders think it is time to engage with Mr Assad, participate in reconstruction and send the refugees home. This is misguided. The refugees will not return willingly. Reconstruction will only benefit the regime and the warlords and foreigners who backed it. Better to let Russia and Iran pay.

Instead the West should try to spare Syria’s suffering by offering strictly humanitarian assistance and threatening retribution for heinous acts, such as the use of chemical weapons. America should stay to keep IS and al-Qaeda in check. But for as long as Mr Assad is allowed to misrule Syria, most aid money would be better spent helping its neighbours. Syrians have suffered terribly. With Mr Assad’s victory, their misery will go on. ■

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2019/ ... rs-to-come
By Rich
#15032141
The hollowness of Assad's victory is simple. He is one of the greatest enemies of Muslims on the planet today, but he must constantly pose as Muslims greatest friend. Assad hates Muslims (for totally understandable and rational reasons), but he must constantly pretend that it is Zionists he hates.

When you look at Syria you see our future, Syria is Europe a handful of decades in the future. The US is Syria a few decades after that. Americans may like to think they are better than Europe, but be under no illusion Cultural Marxists (with the help of their cuckservative friends) will Islamise America, even if they've got to a be a bit slower, a bit more more circumspect about it.

What frightens me is that when the time finally comes to fight, will we have leaders, as strong, as courageous and as righteous as the Assads.
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