African poverty falling "faster than we thought" - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#13338219
JOHANNESBURG, March 4 (Reuters) - Africans are getting wealthier more quickly than previously believed, according to a new study that also suggests the poorest continent's riches are spreading beyond the narrow confines of its elite.

"Africa is reducing poverty, and doing it much faster than we thought," the study by U.S.-based economists Xavier Sala-i-Martin and Maxim Pinkovskiy said.

"The growth from the period 1995-2006, far from benefiting only the elites, has been sufficiently widely spread that both total African inequality and African within-country inequality actually declined over this period."

The research, which assesses poverty levels and income distribution from 1970 to 2006, lends weight to a belief among local and foreign investors that Africa is finally getting its act together 50 years after shaking off the colonial shackles.

The study also challenges the suggestion that strong African growth over the last decade or more has done little to alleviate grassroots poverty due to the countervailing effect of equally strong population expansion.

Going by an inflation-adjusted $1 per person per day yardstick, the study, using statistical analysis pioneered by the two authors said 32 percent of Africans were in poverty in 2006, compared to 42 percent in 1995 and 40 percent in 1970.

By contrast, the United Nations' population agency estimates the average African is 22 percent worse off now than in the mid-1970s because "20 years of an almost 3 per cent annual population growth has outpaced economic gains".

Similarly, in 2008 the U.N. Development Programme said sub-Saharan Africa had made "little progress" in reducing extreme poverty as part of a Millennium Development Goal bid to halve it between 2000 and 2015.

The new study, published by the private, non-profit U.S.-based National Bureau of Economic Research, analysed the shift in distribution curves of African incomes, derived from standard data sources over more than three decades.



ON TRACK

Africa's failings appear particularly stark when compared with the tens of millions who have benefitted from the economic boom in Asia, most notably China and India.

However, the study suggests Africa is on track to achieve its goal only two years late -- and if the impact of civil war in the Democratic Republic of Congo in the last decade is stripped out, it would get there two years early.

"The main point is that Africa has been moving in the right direction and, while progress has not been as substantial and spectacular as in Asia, poverty has been falling and it has been falling substantially," the authors wrote.

They also cast doubt on the perception that wealth continues to be concentrated in the hands of the few, be they from the politics, the military or big business.

According to the study, Africa's Gini coefficient -- a statistical measure of income distribution -- fell from 0.66 in 1990 to 0.63 in 2006, suggesting wealth is being spread more evenly, although inequality is still higher than any other region of the world.

"Contrary to the commonly held idea that African growth is largely based on natural resources and helps only the rich and well-connected, we show that Africa's income distribution has become less rather than more unequal than it was in 1995," the study said.

Besides the commodity boom, other economists have pointed to positive effects on African growth of debt forgiveness, massive Chinese investment, an opening up of economies to international trade and capital, and the spread of mobile phones.

Source


Interesting, but it seems they're making a big deal out of nothing. A gini coefficient going from .66 to .63 in 16 years can be seen as nothing more than statistical noise. That's still incredibly high and the difference would be impossible to tell in the real world. Moreover, the percentage of those living on less than $1 per day falling by 8% in 25 years is also hardly noteworthy, considering the huge progress we've seen in places like China and Southeast Asia.

Then again, at least it's not getting worse.
User avatar
By Dr House
#13338228
I doubt Africa will ever stop being poor. In the last 60 years, Latin America's GDP per capita has risen over 800%. Africa's? 25%.
By politburo player
#13338359
Did the study exclude Egypt? Equatorial or central Africa should be in a distinct class of its own. It will always be poorer and less developed. Culture is hard to break sometimes...
User avatar
By Jackal
#13338437
politburo player wrote:Did the study exclude Egypt? Equatorial or central Africa should be in a distinct class of its own. It will always be poorer and less developed. Culture is hard to break sometimes...


I often wonder how many of these African case studies actually take a look at North Africa. Any clue? Every time I read or hear something like this I always, and I am sure many think the same way, just assume that the research is focused on Sub-Saharan Africa. I would not be surprised if it only focused on Sub-Saharan Africa, either.

Dr House wrote:I doubt Africa will ever stop being poor. In the last 60 years, Latin America's GDP per capita has risen over 800%. Africa's? 25%.

I have a feeling that Latin America being dominated by primarily whites has something to do with this.
By politburo player
#13338614
I have a feeling that Latin America being dominated by primarily whites has something to do with this.


The countries in Africa that had the most European influence are also the most developed. The countries where whites, Indians and Chinese were expelled are also the ones deteriorating quickest. Without European methods of farming and commerce, there is little evidence that Africa would have advanced beyond hunter gatherer status - and hunter gatherers still dominate vast amounts of territory.
User avatar
By Ombrageux
#13349103
Seriously, what's with all this racist shit? You think Congo is effed up today for lack of Western/European influence?
By Political Interest
#13349795
Look at Congo. In 1965 Mobutu Sese Seko assumed the leadership and while for the first ten to fifteen years he brought some development and stability to the country, he soon turned corrupt. All throughout this he was backed by the USA until the collapse of the Soviet Union. It is said that his country's national debt was the equivalent of his private Swiss bank account. There were also many great civilisations in Africa, not just in the northern areas.
User avatar
By Doomhammer
#13351693
Eeaven the primitive North African Muslim countries are much more advanced than the shitty Black countries in South and middle Africa this clearly show something

And what does it show?
User avatar
By Kaspar
#13351828
It's a shame how much the discussion in the Africa forum has degenerated in recent weeks.
User avatar
By sans-culotte
#13360723
the study by U.S.-based economists Xavier Sala-i-Martin and Maxim Pinkovskiy said.

Sala-i-Martin's dishonesty, selective data tactics and outright fabrication have been pointed out a while ago, and anything claimed by this clown should be taken with a massive grain of salt.
User avatar
By flickerstorm
#13429478
well of course Africa is getting richer. The populations are getting more and more educated. In the past the US supported some of the most evil and bloodthirsty dictators this world has ever seen. They supported them through the "marshal plan" which gave them tons of military hardware, money and political support in order to keep them in power. Why? because they were either pro American or indifferent. The US could not risk Africa, with all its resources to fall in the hands of the Soviet Union. This unfortunately meant that millions upon millions of Africans would die through war and subsequent famines. The second Congo war alone for example cost Congo over 5 million lives. Economic growth in much of Africa during this period halted. Corruption went through the roof, and any political unrest was quickly and silently crushed. Idi Amin for example went as far as deporting all foreigners from his country. He was eventually defeated by Tanzania when he tried to invade, but before that he had killed hundreds if not thousands of political rivals. Actions like these have huge negative effects on economy. People get poorer because the leaders up at the top don't care, and no one dares to oppose them. Hopefully though this is the light at the end of the tunnel we have been hoping for. Hopefully only good news will come from Africa from here on in, and hopefully the US and Europe will stay as far away as they possibly can.
User avatar
By Igor Antunov
#13593768
There are countries in central africa with high gdp yet pathetic human development.

Equatorial Guinea is an outstanding example. $32,000 per capita (PPP), or $16,000 (Nominal) is nothing to sneeze at. By virtue of it's small size it was able to stamp out instability, allowing for rapid growth thanks to it's oil reserves. One would think the country is benefitting as a whole, but it isn't.

These figures are misleading, all that wealth is in the hands of a small, probably foreign elite, the population is as deprived as it ever was. The country is ranked 118th on the HDI. Yet it's probably the best all 'black' country to be in on earth.

I'm not ready to paint with broad strokes or jump to final conclusions, this is only a temporary theory and I'm ready, even happy to have it proven fictional, but I don't think majority black populated africa is capable of indigenously derived and driven societal development beyond ancient western/eastern/middle-eastern civilization standards.

There is no way we can fight poverty without fighting corruption. This is the main problem in Africa and South America.


At some point you have to ask youself, why was every other region on earth able to stamp out corruption to some extent eventually, yet africa flopped and continues to flop at every turn?

At one point I too believed that they merely need time. War, turmoil, foreign intervention, all these things tank economies and destroy societies, you need law and order, stability to educate your populace and then your educated populace can get together and build something resembling a functional society.

But It's not so apparent anymore. Ethiopia is an ancient 'black' civilization that has had thousands of years to develop some sort of structure to it's society. It never went beyond what it has today. And what it has today is so typical of the rest of black africa.

On the question of the cycle of poverty which invitably leads to corruption. Eastern europe for example has massive corruption, probably in many cases far more extensive than anything in africa. Many of it's villages are dirt poor. But eastern europe still builds and maintains far superior societies.

Ignore the economic aspect completely, even north korea, a country literally starved on the economic front, is far more organized, developed, and simply established as a functioning state than anything in sub-saharan africa. It has a foundation. The korean civilization. So it can't sink below that no matter the economic scenario.

But africa has no comparable foundations. It's as if it came into existence yesterday, yet it's the longest human populated continent on earth.

Ethiopia has foundations, well they are so pathetic that they are not worth considering if this is the best ethiopia can do. Africas strongest foundations are those the arabs and europeans brought and laid.

Let's start scrutinizing the populations for once, I'm tired of blaming everything around them, trying to find excuses. Let's start looking into the human specimens themselves, to see why they can't get their shit together. Let's not be shy, and utilize modern biology to see why these people consistently underperform (as a group) on their home turf and even abroad. The truth is truth no matter how insensitive or taboo. Let's look for it everywhere we can.

I don't want this suspected realisation to be even remotely true. I don't like it. But it begins to dawn on me nonetheless. I'm sick of juggling excuses, lets get to the bottom of this and act accordingly. People build societies. So lets study the people.
By Rich
#13599864
From a geographical perspective how many countries can you fairly compare sub Saharan Africa with? Brazil, Indonesia, Malaysia? None of them are really good fits?
User avatar
By Kaspar
#13664739
But It's not so apparent anymore. Ethiopia is an ancient 'black' civilization that has had thousands of years to develop some sort of structure to it's society. It never went beyond what it has today. And what it has today is so typical of the rest of black africa.


This is one area where I really disagree with you. What is "typical" Subsaharan Africa? Ghana's Corruption Perceptions rank for 2010 was 62, Botswana's at 33, Angola's 168, Rwanda's 66, and Ethiopia's 116. So with such a varying degree of difference between nations, can you really make blanket generalizations about the region? In comparison to Ethiopia, Ghana's history is less impressive to Western eyes, yet Ghana is faring far better than Ethiopia economically. Same goes for a handful of other African nations.

It's not as if there is some secret African curse that's waiting to be discovered. Why do we need to go into biological analysis when there are already African states that are improving both economically and socially? You make it sound like science is the last hope for understanding Africa's problems; there already is hope in the form of real progress.
User avatar
By jpxplayer
#13697020
Being lazy will never get anyone anywhere in life.
Africa is what it is. I don't see it ever changing unless zebra's start losing there stripes.
Mohamed Ali said it best in the 60's.
#13832442
My god what a bunch of ignorant comments about the state of Africa.
First I want to say that Africa is probably the most heterogeneous continent on Earth so all this ´All Africans are corrupt, lousy society, typical African behaviour´ talk is just ignorant.
I agree that Africans must stop finding external excuses for their apparent failure, but to say that Africans are lousy and that it is a 'cultural thing' would be the same as giving up.
But their are a few common factors most Sub-Saharan African countries share.
The 80s and especially the 90s were lost years in terms of development and why? Mainly because of the Cold War and the American and Soviet support for insane dictators (Mobutu, Numeiri (first supported by USSR, later by USA), Mengistu, Idi Amin, Barre etc. etc.).
The low growth rates are not too bad because you have to remember that Africa is only just recovering from the catastrophic years after independence till the 90s. (of course there are exceptions)
Now Africans have their fate in their own hands (more or less) and Africa is on a junction.
They can either learn from their past and their own mistakes and start making progress by fighting corruption, preventing itself from becoming aid-addicted and by pursuing democracy.
Or they can drown in self-pity and anger towards foreign powers and factors and will go down in history as a failed continent.
#13832478
GunsnRoses wrote:My god what a bunch of ignorant comments about the state of Africa.
First I want to say that Africa is probably the most heterogeneous continent on Earth so all this ´All Africans are corrupt, lousy society, typical African behaviour´ talk is just ignorant.
I agree that Africans must stop finding external excuses for their apparent failure, but to say that Africans are lousy and that it is a 'cultural thing' would be the same as giving up.
But their are a few common factors most Sub-Saharan African countries share.
The 80s and especially the 90s were lost years in terms of development and why? Mainly because of the Cold War and the American and Soviet support for insane dictators (Mobutu, Numeiri (first supported by USSR, later by USA), Mengistu, Idi Amin, Barre etc. etc.).
The low growth rates are not too bad because you have to remember that Africa is only just recovering from the catastrophic years after independence till the 90s. (of course there are exceptions)
Now Africans have their fate in their own hands (more or less) and Africa is on a junction.
They can either learn from their past and their own mistakes and start making progress by fighting corruption, preventing itself from becoming aid-addicted and by pursuing democracy.
Or they can drown in self-pity and anger towards foreign powers and factors and will go down in history as a failed continent.


Good post. Yes, it is quite amazing to see that even as Africa is improving these people still cling to their small minded prejudice. Anyone looking objectively at Africa will see that until around 10 years ago, there was stagnation, stagnation and ever more stagnation. Even regression in some cases. The economic growth that has been taking place in much of Africa for the last ten years contrasts heavily with these past results and it is for all to see the progress that is being made. Evidently, the liberation hang-over is about to end.
#13832535
The "best" parts of the continent objectively are without a doubt the region of North Africa and the nation of South Africa. There's a reason for that which should be quite apparent.

Mobutu Sese Seko


One of the continent's greatest indigenous leaders in my view, not just in the 20th century, but of all time. Zaire and its Authenticité doctrine practiced under Mobutu was one of the most respectable political entities in Sub-Saharan Africa and should serve as an example to all black people to strengthen their own traditions and culture, rather than poorly imitate others. I would certainly have seen him as the last best hope were I born a member of his race.

Many European nationalists will even speak of respect for the "Congo" during this period. Look at the state of the country today. The Second Congo War was inevitable after the breakdown of the state over a protracted period.

"Authenticité has made us discover our personality by reaching into the depths of our past for the rich cultural heritage left to us by our ancestors. We have no intention of blindly returning to all ancestral customs; rather. We would like to choose those that adapt themselves well to modern life, those that encourage progress, and those that create a way of life and thought that are essentially ours" - Mobutu Sese Seko Kuku Ngbendu waza Banga, the all-powerful warrior who, because of his endurance and inflexible will to win, will go from conquest to conquest leaving fire in his wake
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