Scenarios for Post Covid-19 Stagflation - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15155033
reading the last confrontation about dem vs rep attitude about covid-19 needed measures in usA, evokes to mind question about hypothetical comparison of eventual death toll between covid mortality and eventual future stagflation of us economy [1][1] - [1][1] if quarantine measures are imposed as mandatory!?

    probably way more people will die if the economy is stagnant, dont want to think what if it gets depressed, in which case healthcare will be even more unreachable for many thus resulting in higher health risks and consequently leading to greater mortality statistics!

now, socialistic measures of contagion like those in China will give lesser death toll from the current covid-19 pandemic, but think usA cant afford such scenario because that will lead to stagflation at best, in which case as I said the economic pressure will backfire to the low-income population in the end and that is maybe greater risk than not imposing quarantine measures!

    what would be golden mean in this situation for usA is imposing greater risk-management standardization like mandatory proper ventilation or obligatory scafanders or uv-c sterilization on every level so the economy will function as usual, sadly but while this happens there is spent so much energy on pickeering and accusations that when and if this became reality people will have hard time accepting and implementing it as regular measure!
#15156082
this thread is for the economic subforum, but till it gets moved it could remind Ya all here too that the covid paranoia is risk too ...

the point is that harsher anticovid measures will burden the us economy extra, and there would be no room for optimism ... now we need to see whether JoeB will be more concerned for the health of his citizens or its economy!? it would be hilarious how dems were bashing Trump why he didnt impose longer lockdown and now closing their eyes for such need!

https://youtu.be/Ymbj87XNfjM

...

Central bankers are ignoring both the risks of massive inflation in asset prices as well as the red signals in essential goods and services.

What is the problem of stagflation? Prices rise, economic growth is stagnant, which means that the cost of living for most citizens worsens dramatically. The central bank may continue with its misguided and wrongly-called “expansionary policy” because growth is poor, but the situation of millions of citizens rapidly deteriorates. In that scenario, governments resort to hiking taxes, which puts another burden on growth and jobs. The only way to avoid stagflation is to curb massive inflationary policies before they create a larger mess. It may cause a short-term bump in sovereign yields but the demand from fixed-income investors should be ample enough to avoid a debt crisis. After all, if central banks and mainstream economists believe there is such a savings glut and such a massive search for yield, a slowdown in asset purchases should have no consequence. What can really cause a debt crisis is to ignore the risks and continue expanding the central banks’ balance sheets as if nothing is happening.

https://www.bbntimes.com/global-economy/commodities-signal-stagflation-risk
#15156991
the virus will stay, vaccines will do the job just temporary til the next season and the new strains will again make panic, people want to work but many also are afraid, already the real economy is in limbo, now whats next? helicopter money for households? coupons on staged lottery? or fakebook bingohouse for good behavior in libra awards?

https://youtu.be/RK2IfGPSqO0

here the health fear is tool for quicker transfer to cashless system, and the fear must be real so the goal could be secured! what we will need next is education how to behave in digital blockshain circumstances! what this means for the gray economy and usual way for homeless and poor to spare some bucks? is this scenario so easily doable if we know that there is still not in place wide quantum cryptography, thus such system to be secured from hacking!?
#15157002
@late deflation is norm now there is no other way to keep the machine roll, but is it possible this trend of obvious acceleration of stagflation circumstances [1][1] to be reversed with blockchain monetary system? aside the risks from greater totalitarian control of the citizens [1] what is nowhere debated as possible impact to democracy ...

at the moment the problem is that banks are too slow in quick redistribution of fiat helicopters in the real economy, and now with the lockdowns even impossible, so libra alike scheme as direct throw is possible way for direct government redistribution, but that will mean fakebook becoming e-citizen identity card, but for such thing many reforms should in place before such thing would beco,e reality, so as possibility is questionable, and till then checks will flow through the business but that is condemned on failure coz corruption risks etc.

https://youtu.be/c1eRtBjhkzA

and yes now FED would prefer this kind of scenario no matter the costs till this pandemic paranoia disappear ...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4079371-path-to-inflation-helicopter-money

Image

but dont forget there are other risks on the horizon like potential oil bubble [1] in case Iran is attacked [2][2] what could result easily in instant blow of all other bubbles ...
#15157060
Ron Paul has point, but what eventually will make the difference is the human psyche! just panic can crash the market, tho scientists will tell you it depends on the debt, something like the for the climate crisis per'se culprit are the greenhouse gasses but actually they are just one variable [1] now what kind panic can lead to such final risks, hm, rise of sea level or ww3 or asteroid, till then think if the governments want as till now since 2008 from when on actually the world economy is in comma it can continue like that inevitably ...

now how soon is now ...

https://youtu.be/AuG9-LjlRys
#15158015
    if indeed the edge is close, IS SOMEONE READY? are You having refuge survival-know-how or agricultural machinery ready somewhere? can someone shift easily from urban to rural life but living self'sufficiently? dont panic we are all guests in this world, with such thought at least it would be more eaisly do adapt to the circumstances, know grain could be problem so kinoa and buckwheat can be good substitute and they grow even above 1000m msl, water fitration could be problem, but with nano filters in stockpile that can be circumvented [1] "if" until mxenes dont get widespread [2]

usually I dont fall for hype videos, but knowing that all economists were bragging for a while now about the boom bust cycles and incoming crash that is normal every 10 to 17 years, I'll take my chance and share two for now speculative videos ... so they say the bubble could be expected ahead sooner coz the covid crisis, but is this exactly that year, or next one, probably next, but this first video gives You idea that the blowing got inertia, clever thing would be not panicking eg. antivax hype even balanced one [1] so the real economy would back again on legs, but simply that is impossible how half population is covid fearful and the other loosen but disoriented!

https://youtu.be/2g8PawZIRrk

the reality is that the world economy is since 2008 in coma, when was put on venting with all extra oxygen pumps by the central banks, but that oxygen is more and more deprived of atoms that is question when one market of those in g6 will stumble whether all the rest will not follow, eventually recession could help but as in great depression just one false speculation to roll and the biggest market will blow, but lets say that is impossible nowadays, but videos like this is enough to spike panic too and potentially we will all bake bread in wood stoves ...

https://youtu.be/QUJzTsjN_8w
Last edited by Odiseizam on 23 Feb 2021 12:44, edited 1 time in total.
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