[Kaiserschmarrn]

Yeah, he tried to play it off. But that doesn't mean shit, nobody expected that guy to just admit his model was bunk and that he caused a retarded panic.

It's in the report Imperial College released over a week ago which he co-authored. Table 5 on page 14 (also read explanation above table 4).

Edit: And here's the article that was apparently picked up by news outlets:

He said that expected increases in National Health Service capacity and ongoing restrictions to people’s movements make him “reasonably confident” the health service can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in two or three weeks. UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower.

[Drlee]

I find it astonishing that people are just accepting these massive numbers of mostly preventable deaths as if they are inevitable and somehow disconnected from real life.

That is one of the problems of the west being largely observer nations when it comes to epidemics. We have no frame of reference for this. In just about every nation every person will know someone well who dies of this disease. And a great many of those deaths will have been easily preventable.

[SolarCross]

Wow the fricking World Health Organisation works for the PRC.

[late]

I find it astonishing that people are just accepting these massive numbers of mostly preventable deaths as if they are inevitable and somehow disconnected from real life.

That is one of the problems of the west being largely observer nations when it comes to epidemics. We have no frame of reference for this. In just about every nation every person will know someone well who dies of this disease. And a great many of those deaths will have been easily preventable.

I think we can put the controversy to bed, as to whether Trump is a sociopath, now.

[Rancid]

Same as India, Singapore South Korea and pretty much every other country that was smart enough immediately go "oh fuck, China let SARS out again!".

Totally false with respect to India.

India has one of the lowest rates of testing, and experts are saying their infection rate is likely multiple orders of magnitude higher than they are reporting. You also need to remember that PM Modi is basically a Trump like figure in Indian politics. Shady as fuck, and full of lies. Don't forget, Delhi is burning (riots that started before the pandemic), and he's actively suppressing the news on that. Their press is not as free as in the west right now, this is fact. You cannot believe anything the current Indian government is saying. Many of the Indians I know and work with say the same.

Separate comment:
What I find fascinating about this thread is the under laying assumption/tone that the US is the only country that isn't testing properly, and that even developing and third world countries are testing better than the US. Apparently the US is the only country in the world that is going to see apocalyptic deaths worse than anywhere else on the planet if certain people here are to be believed (I'm not referring to or talking about DrLee by the way. ). Get a fucking grip on your biases people. This is why I think some of the right wingers here should not be totally dismissed about the state of things in the US. They are bringing up valid points even if their overall point/premise might be misguided or foolish.

It is certainly true that the US is behind (though improving on testing) than many other countries around the world, but everything I've read say's that US response is more like "mid rate" when looked at objectively. Of course, for such an influential and rich country, it should be at the top, or near the top, which is a valid criticism that I agree with, but to imply the US response is at the level of developing and third world countries, is kind of fucking ridiculous. I advise anyone spreading this kind of notion to shut the fuck up already. I'm not taking you seriously, nor should anyone else. Get a fucking grip.

[B0ycey]

What I find fascinating about this thread is the under laying assumption/tone that the US is the only country that isn't testing properly, and that even developing and third world countries are testing better than the US. This is why I think some of the right wingers here should not be totally dismissed about the state of things in the US. They are bringing up valid points even if their overall point/premise might be misguided or foolish.

You're a breath of fresh air @Rancid. Multiple times I have felt to give Sivad a hand but the problem is underplaying the pandemic is just as or perhaps more dangerous than overplaying it and regardless what we might think, we have to play by the rules. The simple matter is we do not have the data to determine just how dangerous this pandemic is. Which is why testing is so damn important. People look at America's confirmed cases record and think they are bad. No, they are proving they are fucking testing. Perhaps not enough but better than most. Do people think the UK have less cases than Germany or something. No chance. We need to know the exact percentage of those who have been infected, because if we have a really high infection rate like the Oxford study suggests then perhaps these measures aren't going to do anything and we should lessen them now. And if they are wrong and its low then they aren't strong enough. Which is why I advocate testing for everyone. And until then we can expect cases to rise once the restrictions are lifted because we do not know who is immune and who isn't.

Great Post.

[SolarCross]

[late]

Separate comment:

What I find fascinating about this thread is the under laying assumption/tone that the US is the only country that isn't testing properly, and that even developing and third world countries are testing better than the US.

It wasn't that long ago we were the best.

There may have been people that got it wrong, as you said. But there is no middle here. You jump on this fast or you are screwed.

We are screwed.

[Drlee]

@B0ycey said: The simple matter is we do not have the data to determine just how dangerous this pandemic is.

No. Actually we do. All one has to do is look at our emergency rooms and speak to the docs there. We know it is very dangerous to everyone and even more dangerous to others. The search for a larger denominator is largely a search for some hope. It does not tell the doctor on the front lines anything at all. To medical professionals all they must contend with it the patient before them and in a great many cases, certainly the majority seen in hospital it is very very dangerous. Life threatening.

It is OK to look for reassurance in numbers. That has been going on with every herd since the beginning of time. But when one deals with an individual response it does not matter how reassured you are that you will not die. You still (if you are not a classic sociopath and you aren't) should be considering that this virus is a real threat to you personally and that you are a real threat to others whether you intend to or not. In fact, at this point, we have all of the evidence we need to conclude that isolation measures are called for everywhere and that those measures are no longer subject to consideration in light of personal risk but rather should be seen as public health practices.

[B0ycey]

No. Actually we do. All one has to do is look at our emergency rooms and speak to the docs there.

We could also look at road accidents to determine that cars are also dangerous, but how dangerous is determined by data.

The infection rate determines the model and how high the curve goes. Don't want to sound funny but if you're experienced in epidemiology like you claim to be, you would know that. That is why I ignore you. A doctor would never scare monger like you did. For example, if the UK had a 84% infection rate, their wards wouldn't even be overwhelmed and as such wouldn't need to be in lockdown. Italy has a high average age. That is a factor. Again data. So again would have more critical cases. What do you have? Bullshit and a lie that you try and sell to everyone.

[Rancid]

It wasn't that long ago we were the best.

This is too vague of a claim, really. This is debatable and always depends on what SPECIFICALLY you mean by "best". Historically, the US has always been behind on all sorts of shit. Especially the things are are considered progressive. We were one of the last country's to abolish slavery. We've never had a socialized health care system. We still have to do the entirety of our own taxes (most of the rest of the world doesn't). There has always been plenty of shit we've never been the best at.

The notion that the US was always "the best" at everything is easily debatable. This notion is the falsehood that makes people believe things likes "Make America great again."

We are screwed.

No, we're not. This is bad, but it's not the apocalypse.

[late]

We could also look at road accidents to determine that cars are also dangerous, but how dangerous is determined by data.

The infection rate determines the model and how high the curve goes. Don't want to sound funny but if you're experienced in epidemiology like you claim to be, you would know that. That is why I ignore you. A doctor would never scare monger like you did. For example, if the UK had a 84% infection rate, their wards wouldn't even be overwhelmed and as such would need to be in lockdown. Italy has a high average age. That is a factor. Again data. So again would have more critical cases. What do you have? Bullshit and a lie that you try and sell to everyone.

Up to now, I had no idea there were so many different kinds of pandemic experts.

Wanna know what they say?

Oh, you know.

So are you just venting your frustration, or do you want more death and destruction the way the Cult does?

[B0ycey]

Up to now, I had no idea there were so many different kinds of pandemic experts.

Wanna know what they say?

Oh, you know.

So are you just venting your frustration, or do you want more death and destruction the way the Cult does?

The experts are asking for more data. Their advice is on the side of caution. I am just fed up with people thinking that if we don't lockdown we're all dead, when the truth of the matter is lockdown only slows the infection rate and will more likely than not have little effect on percentage of those infected.

[late]

This is too vague of a claim, really. This is debatable and always depends on what SPECIFICALLY you mean by "best". Historically, the US has always been behind on all sorts of shit. Especially the things are are considered progressive. We were one of the last country's to abolish slavery. We've never had a socialized health care system. We still have to do the entirety of our own taxes (most of the rest of the world doesn't). There has always been plenty of shit we've never been the best at.

The notion that the US was always been "the best" at everything is easily debatable. This notion is the falsehood that makes people believe things likes "Make America great again."


No, we're not. This is bad, but it's not the apocalypse.

If I has wanted to say apocalypse, I would have said apocalypse.

Get a grip.

You know the saying about not seeing the forest for the trees? You're a tree guy, I'm a forest guy. Both are integral parts of the intellectual ecology.

But we were the best. The CDC is one of the best ideas in human history, and it's our idea. We led the world at nearly every step, from diagnosis to treatment, around the world.

China is sending stuff to poor countries, which is great. But it's not free. We sent medical teams out, at great risk, and we didn't charge. That's what it takes to get the job done.

Hello?

[late]

The experts are asking for more data. Their advice is on the side of caution. I am just fed up with people thinking that if we don't lockdown we're all dead, when the truth of the matter is lockdown only slows the infection rate and will more likely than not have little effect on percentage of those infected.

I am afraid you are going to get to see what it means to let a plague burn through a country.

You aren't going to like it, and it will be harder on the economy than standard pandemic protocol.

You don't get to rewrite a science because you find it annoying. Not that I don't see people trying here every day.

[Rancid]

If I has wanted to say apocalypse, I would have said apocalypse.

So what do you mean by "we are screwed" then? That certainly sounds apocalyptic. Please expand on it if that's not the case.

Who is "we", and how are "we" "screwed"? In particular, are we screwed for the long term, or the short term, both?

We led the world at nearly every step, from diagnosis to treatment, around the world.

The US still does though. Many innovations, especially in medicine still come out of the US. The US's research and innovation capacity is completely orthogonal to the response to COVID-19.

China is sending stuff to poor countries, which is great. But it's not free. We sent medical teams out, at great risk, and we didn't charge. That's what it takes to get the job done.

Faulty stuff at that.

Further, that stuff comes with strings attached. It's not free, just as when the US sends aid money and supplies around the world too. It's all part of China's plan to spread it's hegemony, which I invite. It's time for the world to stop hating the US, and start hating someone else for a change. I'm being dead serious. It's ok if the US isn't the world police.

You're a tree guy, I'm a forest guy.

No, pretty sure I'm looking at the big picture more than you right now.

[B0ycey]

I am afraid you are going to get to see what it means to let a plague burn through a country.

That's the thing. You cannot know that and neither can I say the opposite. The data simply isn't there to prove one way or the other. Listen I am not saying we shouldn't take the side of caution. I am saying we need the data soon to make the right choice. And that can only be achieved by testing.

[late]

So what do you mean by "we are screwed" then? That certainly sounds apocalyptic. Please expand on it if that's not the case.



The US still does though. Many innovations, especially in medicine still come out of the US. The US's research and innovation capacity is completely orthogonal to the response to COVID-19.


Faulty stuff at that.

Further, that stuff comes with strings attached. It's all part of China's plan to spread it's hegemony, which I invite. It's time for the world to stop hating the US, and start hating someone else for a change.

Apocalypse: 1.
the complete final destruction of the world...

The economy is screwed, our health care community is screwed, old folk in homes and retirement communities are screwed, the poor are screwed. The environment is screwed (Trump is using this an excuse to kill most everything good done in the last hundred years).

Trump has screwed this up again and again. The international pandemic programs were largely killed, the teams disbanded. Sure, the bones remain, but look around, they can't run without muscle, sinew and a brain to make it happen...

[Drlee]

We could also look at road accidents to determine that cars are also dangerous, but how dangerous is determined by data.

Stupid example. We have done that. We have looked at car accidents and reduced the three fold while having more than 5 times as many miles driven.

The infection rate determines the model and how high the curve goes. Don't want to sound funny but if you're experienced in epidemiology like you claim to be, you would know that. That is why I ignore you. A doctor would never scare monger like you did. For example, if the UK had a 84% infection rate, there wards wouldn't even be overwhelmed. Italy has a high average age. That is a factor. Again data. What do you have? Bullshit and a lie.

It is astonishing to me that you are unable to understand a simple premise. I understand that young people like you are looking for reassurance. You are not going to get it from me or any other responsible medical person. Read my post again. You said:

The simple matter is we do not have the data to determine just how dangerous this pandemic is.

And I said that we did. We know how dangerous it is to each and every patient. You are not a public health person and it is not your job to evaluate these data and formulate the public response. Your job is to protect yourself, your loved ones and others. That is it. If, as a hobby, you want to try and google some reassurance go ahead. But if you look at that data and decide to defy the control measures that have been put in place you are a danger to others.

I will skip your personal insults. They are just ignorant. Others are welcome to decide what they want about my posts. But. Try and articulate this for us Einstein. Tell us why governments are tanking their economies if this is just a bump in the road. Serious people from every medical discipline and every epidemiologist in the world except for a few crackpots are shouting social isolation and wartime level response to this very real crisis. If there is not the threat that we imagine why are we cooking the books? To what end? To serve what financial or political end?

Get your head out of your ass and do what you are told. There will be plenty of time later on to kvetch over numbers that all but a very few people do not really understand at all.

But just to make you feel better, tomorrow I will tell a prospective patient that you think this disease is not that dangerous because we do not know what the "real numbers" are. I am sure it will make him/her feel a lot better.

The experts are asking for more data. Their advice is on the side of caution. I am just fed up with people thinking that if we don't lockdown we're all dead, when the truth of the matter is lockdown only slows the infection rate and will more likely than not have little effect on percentage of those infected.

Your hyperbolic answer is noted. Of course none of what you said is true particularly the last part.

Lockdown very well may have an effect on the percentage of those infected. A big one. It also buys time to discover effective treatment modalities and develop vaccines. It allows us to effectively treat the patients who present with the disease using facilities and people we have now and it allows us to marshal resources for the future. So what you said is simply wrong it part and in whole. And can you give me the name of a single person who believes "we're all dead".

Just a note to everyone else. Do not believe what I or anyone else says on this forum. I have said this again and again. Boyce us right on that. We may all be teenagers too lazy to look at porn. Listen to your family doctor and your public health officials. And nobody else. This forum is a means of entertainment and if you get what you believe is good information from it that is a fortunate coincidence.

[late]

That's the thing. You cannot know that and neither can I say the opposite. The data simply isn't there to prove one way or the other. Listen I am not saying we shouldn't take the side of caution. I am saying we need the data soon to make the right choice. And that can only be achieved by testing.

In a crisis, in the real world, if you wait for perfect information, you've lost.

We have more than enough data.