[Ter]

This is not getting any better, guys.

[foxdemon]

If this response to a youtube video is to be believed, the situation in Iran is dire.

I’m from Iran
Yes the mortality is much more than 8 but the government still don’t quarantine Tehran that has 17 million people !! The Qom that spread virus, still don’t has quarantine, they just close schools and universities but don’t care about soldiers in camps, staffs in offices, shops, restaurants, shrines, many many places are open and they don’t close them ! People who infected with their own permission backs to their home and family!! Do you believe that !! They sent infections from every cities to Tehran hospitals because in no where else they don’t have diagnostic test !! And in Tehran hospitals laboratory’s they do test with only PCR no kit !! Many many many infected people are doctors nurses interns and medical personnels because don’t have mask and protective equipment !! Yesss the health management here is shit the government try to kill us murder us please please be our voice, one month later you’ll have to see COVID19 takes millions of victims from Iran... Yes virus is mutated doctors said about their cases
And it’s weird, Infection make whole lungs white and totally destroyed it but with this body hypoxia the ABG is Normal they don’t show any acidosis but they show alkalosis metabolic
All of them has breath distress and awareness till 4-5 hours before heart arrest
They died because of acute myocarditis
It’s not about the age of patients
The cases were 52 and 35 years old with no background disease ! please tell WHO send their support health manager to Iran I don’t know even I will be alive or not
5 hours ago

Here’s the video. Note that advanced countries like the UK and Australia really don’t have the reserve critical care capacity to cope with the high hospitalisation rate. Medical oxygen supplies are inadequate. The US federal government does seem to be moving on supply issues, which might be of some relief to @Drlee .

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=02TwdiRUJTA


It might be time for the head of WHO to tender his resignation.

[Ter]

It might be time for the head of WHO to tender his resignation.

Most appointments in the UN system are done on political considerations.
I have personally seen several women being appointed to high positions and make swift careers in the UN system on the basis of being a citizen of a small under-represented country (Malaysia, Sri Lanka) even though both of them had other passports (US, French). But of course they would not be known as US or French citizen. That Ethiopian DG of the WHO has shown that he is not fit for the job.

When the position of WHO DG opened up some years ago there was an excellent candidate but he was from the UK. They appointed a Chinese Woman at the time. Most of those UN organisations have lost their reputation because of this.
And with Saudi Arabia and Iran in UN Human Rights Council it has become a pure joke.

[colliric]

I'll post a link to the iView on-demand once it goes up so you guys can watch it.

I'm watching it on live tv.

[foxdemon]

Most appointments in the UN system are done on political considerations.

Well, political appointees never had a good of a track record for competent administration. This is one of my central objections to political correctness in the West. People being placed in positions of authority on the grounds of their gender, ethnicity, sexual orientation, etc, are just political appointees. The credibility of the institutions must suffer as a result of the unavoidably bad administration. It gets even worse when they use political prejudice to defend themselves from criticism and to preserve their undeserved status.

I was watching another news video in which a female WHO representative, apparently on the coronavirus team, answered a journalist’s question ‘is this a pandemic’ by answering indirectly that we should be preparing for the disease to show up in our own communities. It doesn’t help when media and big tech collaborate with the UN and the CCP in playing down or covering up the situation. Possibly the biggest causality of corona-chan will be popular confidence in governments and institutions.

On that note, I am watching a video of some experts discussing the virus. On fellow has just explained how this virus is about 2% lethality, same as the 1918 influenza, but that this is likely an over estimate given many people with the disease and mild symptoms, aren’t factored into the equation. The gist of this reasoning is that the current disease is not as lethal as the 1918 flu and thus, we don’t need to panic.

However, it is also the case that the medical technology and infrastructure in 1918 was inferior to today’s in China. So it is not reasonable to compare the lethality of the 1918 flu with the corona virus today. That is to say, many of the critically ill today that recover would die if it were still 1918.

I am growing tried of experts telling me stuff which is easily shown to be misleading.

[ness31]

Is the myocarditis thing true? Is this how you die from Coronavirus?

[colliric]

Yeah it was a superb documentary.

Fuck the CCP. Covered it all up, treated victims like crap.

I'm glad Xi Jinping will not be around much longer.

[Rancid]

I'm buying more stock. Things are going on sale over the corona virus.

[Zionist Nationalist]

I'm buying more stock. Things are going on sale over the corona virus.

Not so fast wait until its going to get worse and it will...

[Rancid]

Not so fast wait until its going to get worse and it will...

I decided to cost average. I intend to buy more later on down the road. I'd rather do it that way since timing the market is generally a fools errand. I'm doing this with long term money. Money I don't intend to touch in 10+ years, so either way, i will make money off this. That is, even if I'm not buying the bottom, I will come out.

If the market didn't, we have much bigger issues to worry about.

[Drlee]

The Dow is down over 1000 pts. Apple is off 4%.

This could be an interesting few days.

[Atlantis]

What I don't know (and can't find) is a really good estimate of how deadly this disease actually is. China is of little help because they have so obviously cooked the books that I do not believe much of what is coming from there.

At this stage, data is by necessity incomplete, therefore, it doesn't matter that the Chinese data are not reliable, they still have the greatest case numbers to serve as a statistical basis.

Based on Chinese and foreign case analysis, the WHO estimates the death rate at 3.1%. That doesn't mean a lot since it affects mostly the elderly. For young people the rate can be 0.2 and for the elderly up to 16% (80 plus). For people between 60 and 70 it's around 8%. If you have a chronic condition like high blood pressure, diabetes, etc., the death rate goes up again.

The death rate could decline if many mild cases that aren't registered are added, but it could also increase because many infected today will still die. The terrible news is that 20% of cases are sever, which means that the health systems will be overwhelmed and people will die because they can't get treatment.

Another bad news is mutation. So far, the virus seems to be stable, but if it does mutate it could become more deadly. Often viruses become less deadly because killing off its host prevents the virus from spreading. Mutations from mild cases will reproduce, while mutations from sever cases will not reproduce since the host is killed. Which means less deadly mutations survive. But this virus doesn't need to become less deadly to become more infectious. It already is very infectious. It also seems to be most infectious during incubation 2 to 5 days after infection when people don't have symptoms. Since people only die 3 to 4 weeks after infection, the viruses are transmitted irrespective of whether the host dies or not. That's why mutation could make it more deadly and not less.

It remains to be seen if there will be any season abatement for this disease.

It'll become endemic, ie., it'll came back each season until there is a vaccine.

China has a very real advantage in fighting this disease though. They can order people around. That will not work well in the West.

That's the one trillion dollar question. China can take draconian measures Western democracies frown on; however, the sledge-hammer methods are seldom the best one. There are more intelligent methods which are more effective. Look at Italy, they imposed a travel ban from China late January, yet they still are the first Western country with a major outbreak. Why is that? They believed they had everything under control and didn't do testing until it was too late. They assumed that Italians who hadn't been to China weren't infected even if they had symptoms. So they refused to do tests. Turns out that Italians returning from China before the travel ban infected others in Italy even though they didn't have symptoms themselves. Thus, the sledge-hammer method of the total ban proved fatal while other countries who used more flexible methods of control still don't have an outbreak even without travel ban.

@Godstud, Thailand never imposed a travel ban. You have been bullshitting me. Thai Airways stopped flights just like most other foreign carriers.

[fokker]

I don't know if it's been posted here already but I came across this website - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

It says death rate is 8% from the number of closed cases. Active cases don't count as those people are not healthy yet. Also the number of seriously ill patients (22%) is worrying.

[Zionist Nationalist]

This video is either from Iraq or Iran but its still disturbing

[Rancid]

The Dow is down over 1000 pts. Apple is off 4%.

This could be an interesting few days.

Buy

[Rancid]

Side note, is it fair to say we will get a better sense of the true death rate, not that it has spread significantly outside of China?

Also, what are the smoking rates in China?

[fokker]

Buy

It's going to get much worse. I would wait for lower price.

It disturbs me as I hold some stock that I don't want to sell yet as I have no use for the cash.

[Political Interest]

Where will this end?

Once the virus goes local it is a very serious situation. Individual cases from China can be contained.

Now in Italy the virus has developed local roots, as it has in Korea and now in Iran.

Once it develops local roots in a country then that country can spread it to other countries in its region.

This is most likely going to become a pandemic. The real question is, how fatal is it and what is it we do not know?

There is a massive issue of personal hygiene involved. Many people do not wash their hands properly. Throughout my life I have always been obsessive about washing my hands. In 2010 a woman taught me how to do it in a very special way while cooking or preparing food. A lot of people I see wash their hands by merely applying soap, they don't go under nails or all over the hands.

Apparently in Russia it is normal to wash hands after coming from outside one's house or apartment. Maybe this is a contributing factor to why it hasn't taken off there.

Just keep washing our hands and washing excessively and all over them.

[Kaiserschmarrn]

This is not looking good. Could overwhelm healthcare systems if spread is not contained and transmission delayed, so that outbreaks are staggered.


Seasonal flu has CFR of <0.1%.



Italy has now locked down about 50,000 people in the north and today they've had the first case in South Tyrol.

Apart from what has been said already in this thread, I'd recommend that people who have elderly parents make sure they have supplies too, including medication if they take any.

[Rancid]

It disturbs me as I hold some stock that I don't want to sell yet as I have no use for the cash.

The market will recover, hang on to it. i'm hanging on.

If this virus causes the collapse of humanity (it won't), then your cash won't mean anything anyway.