The Wuhan virus—how are we doing? - Page 3 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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Provision of the two UN HDI indicators other than GNP.
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#15100511
Pants-of-dog wrote:What do you mean?

You said, "But we are still doing way better than the perfect storm of infection to our south." So who is "we" and which "perfect storm to our south" are you referring to?
#15100512
@Doug64

You said “we” in the thread title, so that was the word I used.

How did you mean it?

And the perfect storm to the south is obviously the developing country that is currently number one for total cases, total deaths, active cases, and serious cases.
#15101916
And another week down the road. One change, the Seasonal Flu Deaths is now the total number of Wuhan virus deaths as a percentage of the average number of flu deaths:

Image
#15101927
@Doug64 doesn't even know what he's posting and how to read it, which is why he didn't add in a link. :knife:

It doesn't say what you think it does, :moron:
#15101930
@Godstud I didn't add a link because this is a chart I created myself, based on the RealClearPolitics charts for both the nations of the world and the individual US states. I just put them into a single chart, and created the EU total by combining its member nations. I think it says exactly what it says.
#15101932
It shows Covid deaths are far higher than flu deaths, in most cases, but I think you know that, already. You also seek to add lots of details instead of looking at the overall picture, in some attempt to downplay the virus.

I went to the sources you got and you are being clearly dishonest. The sources clearly show that almost 3 times more people have died from Covid in the last few months, than from flu deaths in a year. Also, I might note, the people are still dying from the flu, so it's not as if Covid has simply taken over the place of it.

Why Comparing Flu and COVID-19 Severity Is Not Equivalent
Comparing seasonal influenza (flu) mortality to the mortality rate of coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) is a threat to public health and demonstrates the lack of understanding about how the data is collected for each infection by varying agencies, according to a Viewpoint published in JAMA Internal Medicine.

Authors from Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Emory University School of Medicine outlined why the apparent equivalence of deaths from COVID-19 and seasonal influenza are not capturing the entirety of the situation.

They said that public officials continually draw comparisons between the 2 infections, “often in an attempt to minimize the effects of the unfolding pandemic.”

The number of deaths from COVID-19 was estimated in early May to be approximately 65,000, which the authors agreed appeared similar to the estimated number of seasonal influenza deaths reported every year by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

However, that represents a fundamental misunderstanding of the way the CDC reports seasonal influenza morbidity and mortality.

From 2013-14 to 2018-19, the CDC reported yearly estimates of influenza deaths ranging from 23,000-61,000. However, the number of counted influenza deaths during those 2 seasons was 3448 and 15,620, respectively.

It would be more accurate to compare weekly counts of COVID-19 deaths to weekly counts of seasonal influenza deaths, the authors said, due to COVID-19 fatalities being counted and reported directly instead of estimated.

By the numbers, according to the paper:
There were 15,455 COVID-19 deaths reported in the US during the week ending April 21, 2020.
There were 14,478 COVID-19 deaths reported in the US during the week prior.
There were 351 flu deaths during the peak week (week 11 of 2016) of the flu season in 2015-16.
There were 1626 flu deaths during the peak week (week 3 of 2018) of the flu season in 2018-19.
“These statistics on counted deaths suggest that the number of COVID-19 deaths for the week ending April 21 was 9.5-fold to 44.1-fold greater than the peak week of counted influenza deaths during the past 7 influenza seasons in the US, with a 20.5-fold mean increase,” the authors wrote.

The CDC also recognizes that their COVID-19 death counts are continually revised due to delays in reporting. The authors believed that the ratio of counted COVID-19 deaths to flu deaths will rise. Additionally, they said their ratios are more clinically consistent with the experiences of health care workers on the front lines.

“We infer that either the CDC’s annual estimates substantially overstate the actual number of deaths caused by influenza or that the current number of COVID-19 counted deaths substantially understates the actual number of deaths caused by SARS-CoV-2, or both,” they wrote.

The authors allowed for several considerations, including that testing capacity is limited for COVID-19 and there could be false-negative results. They also said that flu deaths are not reportable to public health authorities—while COVID-19 deaths are, which could lead to potential underreporting.

Drawing direct comparisons between 2 diseases, despite mortality statistics being collected by different methods, provides inaccurate information. The failure to consider these differences by experts “threatens public health,” the authors wrote, especially as they rely on the comparisons “to reopen the economy and deescalate mitigation strategies.”

“Although officials may say that SARS-CoV-2 is ‘just another flu,’ this is not true,” the authors concluded. “Our analysis suggests that comparisons between SARS-CoV-2 mortality and seasonal influenza mortality must be made using an apples-to-apples comparison, not an apples-to-oranges comparison. Doing so better demonstrates the true threat to public health from COVID-19.”

https://www.contagionlive.com/news/why- ... equivalent
#15101948
Godstud wrote:It shows Covid deaths are far higher than flu deaths, in most cases, but I think you know that, already. You also seek to add lots of details instead of looking at the overall picture, in some attempt to downplay the virus.

Define "far higher than flu deaths"--53.2% of US states plus Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia and EU countries (minus Malta and Latvia, for which we don't have numbers for flu deaths) had more Wuhan virus deaths so far than the average flu season. 32.9% have had over twice as many deaths, 25.3% over three times. So no, I wouldn't say that Wuhan virus deaths have been far higher in most cases.

They say that sometimes you can't see the forest for the trees, but sometimes you can't see the trees for the forest. The simple fact is that for almost half of US states and EU countries, the number of deaths hasn't been any worse that the average flu season; for many of those nowhere close. Even for those that have had more deaths, for some it hasn't been that much more--Missouri, only 1.6% more; Alabama, +9.8%; Austria, +10.3%. But when calculating the overall numbers, places like the northeast in the US,where they've had five times and more the number of deaths than the average flue season; or Spain, Italy, or France, where they've had more than three times the number of deaths; can skew the total. The line for the median average falls on Nevada with +20%.

And while acknowledging that we aren't done yet so the percentages are going to continue rising for some time, and that the number of deaths are as low as they are because of how we crashed our economies, the insistence that we can't compare the two has a bit of a CYA feel to it--to avoid people saying, "we wrecked our economies for this?"

Note that the average number of flu deaths is for the ten most recent years for which we have data.
#15101951
Read my post before rambling on about your pathetically weak flu argument. I defended my stance quite well, with a source, and your source even supports what I said, as well.

Cherry-picking out a few locations to prove your point, does not do so. Your logic is flawed.

The reasons the deaths have been down in some places is because people have done things to make it that way. Had they not, they'd be looking like UK, Italy, or USA. People don't take more than the simplest precautions against the flu, because it's quite simply, not as dangerous.
#15101965
@Godstud Just how is it "cherry-picking" to point out that a solid majority of both states and nations have had fewer than twice as many Wuhan virus deaths than the average flu season, and that the median state/nation is at +20%, and so can't be described as "far higher than flu deaths, in most cases" as you claimed?

As for the rest of your post, I said the same thing: "And while acknowledging that we aren't done yet so the percentages are going to continue rising for some time, and that the number of deaths are as low as they are because of how we crashed our economies ..."
#15101970
@Doug64

What numbers are you using for the flu and for the Trump virus?

Are you using CDC estimates for the flu? Because that number includes all confirmed deaths plus an estimate of unreported deaths.

Are you using the confirmed deaths for the the Trump virus? That does not include an estimate of unreported deaths.
Last edited by Pants-of-dog on 22 Jun 2020 06:32, edited 1 time in total.
#15101972
@Pants-of-dog Per RCP's website, their sources are the WHO, CDC, ECDC, NHC, DXY, & JHU. They have links to each of them, though the NHC & DXY are in Far East scripts.
#15101981
@Doug64

Yes, I checked those after I asked you, and I confirmed that you are using estimates for flu and confirmed numbers for the Trump virus.

You can see why such a comparison would be misleading.

What would the numbers look like if you only used confirmed flu deaths?
Last edited by Pants-of-dog on 22 Jun 2020 06:32, edited 1 time in total.
#15101992
@Pants-of-dog Considering the reports I've heard of the way any deaths of people infected by the Wuhan virus are counted regardless of underlying conditions (at times including gunshots or alcohol poisoning), I'd have to say that "estimated" is a good description of the Wuhan death toll.
#15101996
You misnaming the virus, to make it political, doesn't help your argument. It shows an inherent dishonesty and bias of your argument.

Just letting you know...
#15101999
Godstud wrote:You misnaming the virus, to make it political, doesn't help your argument. It shows an inherent dishonesty and bias of your argument.

Just letting you know...

The Wuhan Virus was what it was first called. Nothing political about it. It was simply naming it according to the location of origination. Calling it the Chinese Communist Party virus might be considered political naming.
Just letting you know... :lol:
#15102009
Hindsite wrote:The Wuhan Virus was what it was first called.
No. That's patently false.

Naming the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and the virus that causes it
Official names have been announced for the virus responsible for COVID-19 (previously known as “2019 novel coronavirus”) and the disease it causes. The official names are:

Disease

coronavirus disease
(COVID-19)

Virus

severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
(SARS-CoV-2)

https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease ... covid-2019)-and-the-virus-that-causes-it
#15102010
Doug64 wrote:@Pants-of-dog Considering the reports I've heard of the way any deaths of people infected by the Wuhan virus are counted regardless of underlying conditions (at times including gunshots or alcohol poisoning), I'd have to say that "estimated" is a good description of the Wuhan death toll.


Your own sources say that the number of deaths from the Trump virus is being undercounted. And while some cases are temporarily marked as resulting from the Trump virus (even though the cause pf death was something else) those were removed later.

And even if you take out al the deaths like this, plus all the ones that are questionable, it still reduces the number insignificantly. 30 out of a thousand cases is nothing. That is less than statistical error.

Now, what does your spreadsheet look like when you use confirmed flu deaths instead?
#15102014
Godstud wrote:No. That's patently false.

Naming the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and the virus that causes it
[i]Official names have been announced for the virus responsible for COVID-19 (previously known as “2019 novel coronavirus”) and the disease it causes.

I was not referring to any official name for the virus. I was referring to what the news media in America first called it before it was officially named. That unofficial name in America was the Wuhan virus.
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