Rich wrote:Which of course would mean a death rate of about 1 in 7000, no where near the 3% death rate that the Liberal lie machine was quoting.
The 3% comes from confirmed cases. While the lower death rate comes from an estimate of infections given that many infections go untested/unconfirmed/asymptomatic. The 3% isn't exactly lie, but what they should have certainly done was be more clear in what they were saying. That is, based on confirmed cases, it's 3%, but that they think the real rate is lower given there are so many unconfirmed cases. Estimates like the 10% infection rate cannot be assessed early on, simply because there isn't enough data or understanding, so they have to go by the confirmed case count. It's the only somewhat reliable number they have. It takes time for them to draw up reasonable estimates. That said, when the 3% number is/was thrown around, they should have prefaced it with "worst case". As in "We believe the worst case death rate is 3%". I'm sure many scientists actually did say this, the problem is often how the media reports it.
Most of the time, scientists do report all the caveats to their data, but the media misses key information when they write about the research. I've seen this happen in many other areas as well, including in the industry I work in.
Basically, the media is bad at reporting science/research. Now, whether that is deliberate or not, it debatable. My personal belief is, they are just incompetent. The reality is, most people, including the media, don't understand science and how numbers work. Even when these people claim to be people of science. Hell, I've seen really really really bad math/statistics on these forums before. I'm not talking about the data itself, but how people compute and interpret numbers. That is a mess for many.
I remember most recently big steve was having a really hard time understanding per-capita comparisons, and proportion comparisons. Something you are taught in late elementary or early middle school.
I remember having to explain to one of my landlords how percentages work, because they kept calculating what I owed on trash service wrong.
At one point, I had to tell her "look, I work with numbers every single day, and i work on things that if I mess up a calculation, people can die. Trust me, I am calculating this basic percentage right and your approach is wrong, just please trust me on this one."
She finally yielded to me. Anyway, my point is, people are REALLY bad at crunching numbers, and even worse at interpreting them.