New Covid19 Strain is more transmissible... - Page 4 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15145357
XogGyux wrote:
Not saying that you are, but many people make the mistake that living organisms mutate with specific goals in mind. They might "wrongfully intuitively" assume that pathogen might mutate into a super bug that kills everything. As a general rule, it is disadvantageous to kill the host that is helping spread your offsprings :lol: so we see that more "successful" diseases such as the flu, are not super deadly but they spread very efficiently. That does not mean that spreading is something that will "always" benefit the pathogen, in many cases spreading means having ways of "tricking" the inmune system. For a virus, this might increase complexity (and complexity is not something you want if you lack all the proofreading and error-fixing machinery that most other complex organisms have). The result is, that there is a law of diminishing returns acting upon this.

Now... perhaps the most important part... is the "I told you so" factor. The naysayers that in february, march, april were crying "this will be over soon" or ignored the warnings about winter being worse, the holiday times being a disaster for spreading this thing, mutations.... The real question that I have is.. what is the number? What is the number of times that these people are going to be wrong, that after reaching "that number" they will realize that their "world" view is just wrong, they cannot even reasonably express what they expect for the relatively "near future". Seriously. Many of us "predicted" this.... not because we hold crystal balls that are magical, and certainly not because we were trying to make this "future" a reality (certainly I was not)... but rather because it was obvious, we were seeing being built and we could see the final product.


I appreciate the post, but I'm curious to understand why, for example, the Hong Kong Flu eventually didn't kill as much, or the plague, etc etc.

Was it due to mutations that made it weaker, or the population becoming more immune after the "weak" were killed off?
#15145362
Rancid wrote:Indeed, mutations are basically random, and thus you want fewer replications to make sure a really bad mutation occurs.

That said, historically, viruses (eventually) mutate towards being less virulent. How does that happen?

@XogGyux pretty much answered that one - if you need a host to reproduce, then killing that host is generally counter-productive. Lol. The most virulent viruses are usually those which have emerged recently (through mutation) or have made a jump to a new host species to which they have not adapted properly yet. The current pandemic is a good example of this. Eventually, we and Covid-19 will adapt to each other, and the virus should then settle down into being just another (very bad) form of flu. In the meantime, of course, as @Atlantis pointed out, if the virus is allowed to spread in an unrestricted way, there will be less selection pressure acting on it to force it to become less virulent. Who cares if you kill your host if there are millions more lining up to get infected...?
#15145368
There are millions of hosts for the flu and colds and they don't become more deadly because they can or it doesn't matter. :eh:

Viruses basically evolve to the conditions set and if unrestricted will always become less deadly as it isn't beneficial to kill your host. The same would be true even now with Covid despite living in big cities because the poorly would still stay home or in hospitals whilst the asymptomatic would go about and spread weaker variants. The Spanish Flu became more deadly due to the trenches as we seperated strains by mobilising the deadly variants away from the weak strains for example. That isn't to say we should let this virus free, especially given that we are so close to a vaccine. Because the more opportunity to infect is a new opportunity to mutate and unrestricted mutations may well mean your vaccines might not even work at all. But it is a misnomer to believe mutations must always be bad. They aren't. Or they can be, but the mutations that thrive will always be the variants that benefit the virus to the conditions it faces and not us for the conditions we set it.
#15145377
Wolvenbear wrote:The numbers in the US didn't jump until lockdown had been instituted for almost 6 weeks. There is no argument that can be advanced that "lockdown worked", when cases dramatically increased in that time period.

But except for the basic facts and all....

There was no single 'lockdown' in the USA, so your claim of "almost 6 weeks" is meaningless. Different states had different rules, at different times. You aren't providing "basic facts", you're making things up. For actual facts, in a region with a definite action: New York closed its schools from March 16th, and shut non-essential businesses from March 20th; the state new case rate peaked in early April (weekly death rate peaked Apr 7th-13th). So that's about 3 weeks from the start of the most locked-down state to the peak of deaths, which you expect to lag infections by about that amount. Effective.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_ ... 28state%29
#15145392
Wolvenbear wrote:Covid seems less mutable than most viruses though.


That's what they have kept on saying in the beginning. The simple fact is that it did mutate little as long as the number of infections were low. But now that it has become so widespread, we see new mutations all the time (UK, SA, Nigeria, the mink mutation, etc.). It cannot be any other way.

We have instituted the most severe "containment measures" known to human kind over covid. So your argument is wrong.


The lockdowns in the Spring did reduce infections as they were supposed to; however, the virus is back with a vengeance because people grew complacent. In the Spring, the ski resorts in the Alps spread the virus across the whole of Europe. Today, Brits are again going skiing in Switzerland and violate quarantine to spread the new British variant across the continent.

According to you, going to Switzerland on a skiing trip, which we know will spread the virus, and violating quarantine constitutes the "most severe containment measures known to human kind." Grow up kiddo ...

I'm going to go out on a limb and say you've never read a single covid study. Most pro-lockdown types haven't. I've read hundreds. This probably isn't a battle you want to pick. You will lose it.


:lol:

Aside from a bunch of conspiracy theorists nobody believes that the virus mutates because of the lockdowns.

It's really quite amazing. People are incapable of learning. After the tremendous effort to contain the virus, people party as if there were no tomorrow. They are wasting all the effort society has made to contain the virus.

You have jumped on the conspiracy bandwagon far too late. Most of the conspiracy theorists are already creeping back into the holes they have come from, some after having had a first hand experience of what intubation in an ICU is like.

Germany: Anti-lockdown protest leader contracts COVID
#15145402
Potemkin wrote:As the newspaper article pointed out, the overwhelming majority of mutations occur during the replication of the virus's genome inside the host cell. The more opportunities it has for transmission, therefore, the more often it will reproduce itself and the more likely it becomes that a mutation will occur to make the virus either more transmissible or more virulent. @Atlantis was therefore surely correct in suggesting that allowing the virus to spread unrestricted is probably a very bad idea, as it will make the appearance of new and more dangerous strains more likely.


Due to WWI, it wasn't possible to impose containment measures during the 1st wave of the Spanish flu. Most war participants didn't release information about the pandemic so as not to compromise military operations. That's why it is called the Spanish flu. Spain was the only country to report about the pandemic. The narrow crowded spaces of the trenches and troop transports were ideal breeding grounds for the virus to spread.

The 1st wave wasn't very deadly, but due to the lack of containment the virus spread and mutated to become very deadly during the 2nd and 3rd waves. An estimated 30 to 50 million people died.

In Bergamo, Italy, the virus spread so rapidly that about 0.6% of the population died in the Spring. It was only due to the hard lockdown that worse was avoided. Still, even Bergamo is far from herd immunity since only 50% have been infected. Thus, without containment measures, Covid could have killed 50 to 100 million people worldwide.

It's when SARS-CoV-2 is allowed to spread that it mutates and may become more deadly. There is no evolutionary pressure for the virus to become less deadly, because the viruses reproduces long before the host is killed. So far, it is thought that the new variant is only more transmissible, but since the viral load with the new virus can be 10,000 times higher than with the previous variants, it could still prove to be more deadly too.
#15145428
Rancid wrote:I appreciate the post, but I'm curious to understand why, for example, the Hong Kong Flu eventually didn't kill as much, or the plague, etc etc.

Was it due to mutations that made it weaker, or the population becoming more immune after the "weak" were killed off?


Well that is an apple to oranges comparison, perhaps not even that... apple to rusted nails comparison.

For one, assume that medicine except for the last 100 years is either not going to help, or in many cases, it would make things worse. I am not exaggerating here. "Evidence-based medicine" is a relatively new concept for us. The first randomized clinical trial was about streptomycin in 1948... imagine that. Before then, medicine was full of the same cockomany insane ideas that you would find on a palm reading, astrology, vodoo store. Bleeding patients, was not only common, it was considered "best practice" in many occations, and besides bleeding the other treatments were not much better (purgative (laxatives), compounds that contained arsenic/lead/etc). So imagine someone dying from cholera... and all of the sudden the doctors jumps in and says "this patient is dying, please quickly bring me a sharp blade we need to take 2 pints of blood out of the patient asap. As you can imagine... this does not make for good medical outcomes.
So we can see how some diseases which perhaps are not expected to be particularly deadly can transform into monsters if we don't know how they spread, know how to treat them, and perhaps more importantly, treat them with "treatments" that injure patients even further.
#15145435
I assume each mutation can only change so much of the genetic code so once a disease has low lethality it can't suddenly become highly lethal. Also once a population develops some level of immunity via frequent contact with a disease the new mutations are still manageable since our immune systems are familiar with the base disease.
#15145463
Prosthetic Conscience wrote:There was no single 'lockdown' in the USA, so your claim of "almost 6 weeks" is meaningless. Different states had different rules, at different times. You aren't providing "basic facts", you're making things up. For actual facts, in a region with a definite action: New York closed its schools from March 16th, and shut non-essential businesses from March 20th; the state new case rate peaked in early April (weekly death rate peaked Apr 7th-13th). So that's about 3 weeks from the start of the most locked-down state to the peak of deaths, which you expect to lag infections by about that amount. Effective.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_ ... 28state%29


I have no idea where you got your numbers. New York's cases continued to climb well into the end of April, at which point they still continued to increase, just at a slower rate. https://www.bing.com/search?q=new+york+ ... 18de7f0f59
Since the average incubating rate for covid is about 3-5 days, and only outlier cases make it to the two week margin, no the numbers don't really support your argument.

Further, as even this pro-lockdown timeline admits, cases jumped a month into the lockdown, as New York changed its counting method: https://abcnews.go.com/US/News/timeline ... d=71292880 Overnight, the number of cases jumped 17%. Cases don't really start to drop until nearly two months into the lockdown. Oddly, even as protesters ignored the lockdown orders, new cases kept dropping.

Yes, these are facts. The fact that not every state implemented the same policies at the same times does not affect the overall point, which was necessarily done in broad strokes. But, regardless, even viewing New York, my overly broad view still is pretty close to what happened.

Atlantis wrote:That's what they have kept on saying in the beginning. The simple fact is that it did mutate little as long as the number of infections were low. But now that it has become so widespread, we see new mutations all the time (UK, SA, Nigeria, the mink mutation, etc.). It cannot be any other way.


Covid spread at rapid rates through the US, with few mutations. It didn't "just start" spreading, so your argument doesn't make any sense. It was widespread long before that article.

The lockdowns in the Spring did reduce infections as they were supposed to; however, the virus is back with a vengeance because people grew complacent. In the Spring, the ski resorts in the Alps spread the virus across the whole of Europe. Today, Brits are again going skiing in Switzerland and violate quarantine to spread the new British variant across the continent.


Looking at the numbers, not so much. See above.

According to you, going to Switzerland on a skiing trip, which we know will spread the virus, and violating quarantine constitutes the "most severe containment measures known to human kind." Grow up kiddo ...


Ah the shameless lie of the lockdown forces. Causing widespread homelessness, death and poverty is no different than telling people "they can't go to Switzerland". Those "filthy whiners" who cry about not getting essential cancer treatments are just complaining about not being able to get haircuts. They guy who couldn't afford his rent payment and became homeless is just crying about McDonalds or something.

Shame on you. Shut up.


Aside from a bunch of conspiracy theorists nobody believes that the virus mutates because of the lockdowns.


I never suggested it did. You are engaging in a strawman. This is where you are unable to debate your opponent;s point so you change it to something different that is easier to debate. It's what people do when they know their point is wrong.

It's really quite amazing. People are incapable of learning. After the tremendous effort to contain the virus, people party as if there were no tomorrow. They are wasting all the effort society has made to contain the virus.


Shameful people like you downplay the real consequences of your actions, which have had no tangeable benefits, to call people who NEED to work, NEED to go to school, and NEED to get basic medical treatment derogatory names for thinking they deserve to not die of starvation or medical neglect. You and your ilk are the worst, lacking basic human decency.

You have jumped on the conspiracy bandwagon far too late. Most of the conspiracy theorists are already creeping back into the holes they have come from, some after having had a first hand experience of what intubation in an ICU is like.


I led the bandwgon my friend, and was on it long before any politician. I have written almost a dozen articles about the covid hoax. And I have debated dozens of doctors to a standstill on the matter. You're out of your league here, bud.

Germany: Anti-lockdown protest leader contracts COVID


Anecdotes mean nothing. They're bad debating.
#15145493
Wolvenbear wrote:I have no idea where you got your numbers.

The first link I gave: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/ . If you want downloadable numbers, they're here for each state: https://covidtracking.com/data/download

New York's cases continued to climb well into the end of April, at which point they still continued to increase, just at a slower rate. https://www.bing.com/search?q=new+york+ ... 18de7f0f59

Your link only shows daily case numbers from August; for April, it only shows cumulative numbers. So you're having to try and determine the gradient, which isn't easy; mine shows you daily figures, and a 7 day moving average. This peaked in early April.

Since the average incubating rate for covid is about 3-5 days,

Well, median for onset of symptoms is 5 days; in March and April, testing was not well organised, and many people were only being tested when the symptoms got serious. The death rate, however, was not affected by problems with testing, and that peaked in the 7 days April 7th-13th (Apr 8th-14th for the 'Covid tracking' downloadable data).

Further, as even this pro-lockdown timeline admits, cases jumped a month into the lockdown, as New York changed its counting method: https://abcnews.go.com/US/News/timeline ... d=71292880 Overnight, the number of cases jumped 17%.

I think you mean "however", not "further". The point there is that the headline figures looked like there was a jump in daily deaths (not "cases") on April 14th, but that was due to a change in New York City counting methods, not the actual disease. The daily deaths in statistics, which have been collated to allow for changes in reporting methods, peaked April 7th-13th.

Cases don't really start to drop until nearly two months into the lockdown.

But, as we see with the numbers, you're wrong about that. Perhaps you use "really" not to mean "in reality", but to mean "by what I regard, subjectively, as 'a lot' or 'enough to make me feel good'".

Yes, these are facts. The fact that not every state implemented the same policies at the same times does not affect the overall point, which was necessarily done in broad strokes.

A "broad stroke" is not a fact. You've just admitted your original "6 weeks in the USA" claim was not a 'fact', but a number you made up. A 'broad' number.

I led the bandwgon my friend, and was on it long before any politician. I have written almost a dozen articles about the covid hoax. And I have debated dozens of doctors to a standstill on the matter. You're out of your league here, bud.

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
#15145497
Wolvenbear wrote:I have no idea where you got your numbers. New York's cases continued to climb well into the end of April,


Italy went into a national lockdown on March 12th. The infections peaked March 21st, 9 days later.

Spain went into a hard national lockdown March 14th. Infections peaked March 20th, 7 days later.

France declared a national lockdown on March 16th. Infections peaked March 31st, 15 days later.

Time between infection and registration of infection is at least 1 to 2 weeks.

Countries with fewer infections went into partial lockdowns, which were less effective; however, in all cases it was possible to stop the exponential growth with a lockdown.

To believe anything else is knee-deep into conspiracy territory on a level with the flat-Earthers.

Don’t be a flat-Earther.

Covid spread at rapid rates through the US, with few mutations.


Don't be daft. The US has 40 times more infections now than it had in April and 10 times more daily new cases. Do you understand the difference between 30,000 and 300,000 daily new infections?

The more infections, the more the likelihood of mutations.

You don't have to be Einstein to understand that.

Looking at the numbers, not so much. See above.


Only a completely dilutional conspiracy theorist would misrepresent the figures I presented above.

Ah the shameless lie of the lockdown forces. Causing widespread homelessness, death and poverty is no different than telling people "they can't go to Switzerland". Those "filthy whiners" who cry about not getting essential cancer treatments are just complaining about not being able to get haircuts. They guy who couldn't afford his rent payment and became homeless is just crying about McDonalds or something.

Shame on you. Shut up.


:lol: Where did that wild rant come from? You are loosing it.

The 2nd wave occurred because of pandemic deniers and complacent people who ignored Covid restrictions. You don't have to go to Switzerland to do Corona parties.

Cancer patients will die because hospitals are full with Covid patients in countries that failed to cut the exponential growth with lockdowns.

How many people do you want to die? 5 million not enough? How about 50 millions? Is that enough? Because that is exactly what you are aiming for with your anti-lockdown rants. Hitler would be proud of you.

I never suggested it did. You are engaging in a strawman. This is where you are unable to debate your opponent;s point so you change it to something different that is easier to debate. It's what people do when they know their point is wrong.


You attacked me with some absurd accusation when I refuted the idea that the virus mutated because of the lockdowns. Either you don't know what you are writing or you don't know what you are attacking.

And now you attack me again because you didn't understand anything in the first place.
:knife:

Shameful people like you downplay the real consequences of your actions, which have had no tangeable benefits, to call people who NEED to work, NEED to go to school, and NEED to get basic medical treatment derogatory names for thinking they deserve to not die of starvation or medical neglect. You and your ilk are the worst, lacking basic human decency.


You still ignore the first thing about the pandemic which I have been repeating since January: to recover the economy you first need to beat the pandemic (see China). It can't get anymore obvious than that.

That somebody who claims to have red hundreds of Covid studies should ignore the first thing about Covid is astonishing to say the least.

I don't blame you for being ignorant, nobody has to know everything. But to be arrogant and insulting in addition to being ignorant is just one step too far.

I led the bandwgon my friend, and was on it long before any politician.


The pandemic could have been stopped if there had been a concerted effort. It's conspiracy theorists like you who are directly responsible for millions of deaths, tens of millions of long Covid cases, tens of trillions of Euros of damages.

If there is any justice in this world, you will be locked up for the rest of your days. I don't approve of the death penalty, which appears to be the appropriate penalty in your country.

I don't believe you are so stupid as not to understand what I'm saying. The only possible alternative is that you deliberately distort the facts. That changes the verdict from manslaughter to murder.

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