[Zionist Nationalist]

The thing is that Hong kong is just the first step
Taiwan is next
and than when China will feel comfortable they will press other countries around the world

[JohnRawls]

Anyone who supports such an obvious lost cause, is a lost cause themselves, or relishes the slaughter of rebels. Take your pick.

It's not a lost cause. It's stupid to think that you can't achieve your goals just because you are weaker or smaller. The fight is lost when you give up and not when you loose 1 or 10000000 battles. Roman Republic had the right mentality in this regard. Battles can be won or lost, long term it wasn't relevant if your will to fight never faded. You adjust tactics and win in the end. Defeat in such cases is as important as victory. It's mearly a curve on your way to total victory.

[Rancid]

It's not a lost cause. It's stupid to think that you can't achieve your goals just because you are weaker or smaller. The fight is lost when you give up and not when you loose 1 or 10000000 battles. Roman Republic had the right mentality in this regard. Battles can be won or lost, long term it wasn't relevant if your will to fight never faded. You adjust tactics and win in the end. Defeat in such cases is as important as victory. It's mearly a curve on your way to total victory.

I agree it's a lost cause, but I don't believe we people should just roll over either.

[JohnRawls]

I agree it's a lost cause, but I don't believe we people should just roll over either.

How is it a lost cause? Just because China is large?

That is a very primitive way of thinking. China is operating under a lot of constraints here. It's stupid to think that they can just use all of their size/might and are simply choosing not to for now. The reason why they can't do it is not everything is okay in China as it is. Use of force in HK will probably set back the Chinese economy couple of decades back which threatens the CCP rule. It will give Trump a full cart blansh and put pressure to fuck China very hard both by his supporters and the party itself. Japan, Taiwan, Korea will follow suit with the US. EU is a wild card but we will also have to take action. It won't be sanctions but HK won't be forgotten that easily. Long term EU will implement sanctions also when the current politicians change a bit. We were fine with Russia until we werent.

[Rancid]

How is it a lost cause? Just because China is large?

It's not just because China is large.

One point that @skinster has made, which is totally valid is that HK does in fact belong to China. Thus, it's easier for them to justify taking what is already legally theirs. Technically, it's not an issue of sovereignty , it's about how can China manage the absorption of HK into the mainland culture.

China will win, they just have to be VERY patient and realize it will take a generation or two, to fully absorb HK and basically make it like the rest of China. China can play the long game here, which is why they will win.

Use of force in HK will probably set back the Chinese economy couple of decades back which threatens the CCP rule.

You sure about that? The mainland has actively shifted China's finance economy away from HK and towards Shanghai. I don't think it would be as painful for the mainland. They've done this precisely to make absorbing HK easier. If you make the HK economy less independent, and more dependent on the mainland, integration will happen economically. When that happens, cultural integration will follow.

It will give Trump a full cart blansh and put pressure to fuck China very hard both by his supporters and the party itself. Japan, Taiwan, Korea will follow suit with the US. EU is a wild card but we will also have to take action. It won't be sanctions but HK won't be forgotten that easily. Long term EU will implement sanctions also when the current politicians change a bit. We were fine with Russia until we werent.

I generally agree, that it would make China's neighbors start to align much more closely with the US. This is a legitimate constraint for China. Still, if they continue to get larger economically and militarily, they can just say, fuck you to everyone. The US has done that before, why wouldn't China do the same?

[Rancid]

@JohnRawls,

I feel like the only scenario where HK retains its special status/privileges (which is sad to call being able to vote your leaders a privilege, but that's besides the point); Is that somehow, HK manages to hold out long enough coupled with some sort of unforeseen event where China somehow loses it's power/influence significantly.

[Zionist Nationalist]

I generally agree, that it would make China's neighbors start to align much more closely with the US. This is a legitimate constraint for China. Still, if they continue to get larger economically and militarily, they can just say, fuck you to everyone. The US has done that before, why wouldn't China do the same?

I doubt they can count on the US for much longer
US will go into isolation within the coming years and will probably be busy with possible economic recession and domestic political issues

China will just wait for the right moment to make ultimatum or to launch a surprise attack on Taiwan probably sometime in 2030s or 2040s

[Patrickov]

I doubt they can count on the US for much longer
US will go into isolation within the coming years and will probably be busy with possible economic recession and domestic political issues

China will just wait for the right moment to make ultimatum or to launch a surprise attack on Taiwan probably sometime in 2030s or 2040s

The United States quite constantly have political issues but they usually resolve that easily. As for the economics, as long as their currency is still trusted around thd world it will be Ok even if they go into isolation (as China had been between around 1450 and 1850) or even in decline (when China was first forced open to foreign trade Spanish dollar was somewhat the most used one, even though the Spanish Empire had long since broken up), not to mention their Common-law based judicary System is still one of the most trusted.

Meanwhile, I agree with My Honourable Friend's analysis on the Taiwanese Question. This is why I personally think emigration to Taiwan is not a bright idea.

[Beren]

China can play the long game here, which is why they will win.

In the long term Xi Jinping and his generation will die too and when enough time has passed there will be only people in China who never lived under Mao.


Bye-bye, Great Leader!

[Patrickov]

@JohnRawls,

I feel like the only scenario where HK retains its special status/privileges (which is sad to call being able to vote your leaders a privilege, but that's besides the point); Is that somehow, HK manages to hold out long enough coupled with some sort of unforeseen event where China somehow loses it's power/influence significantly.

IMHO this "loss of influence" somewhat requires a trigger to happen, and I might guess that some protesters are viewing themselves as that factor. However it might also lead to unwanted consequences. For example, the last time Guangdong became fully independent (mid 10th Century) they had rather selfish rulers.

[Patrickov]

In the long term Xi Jinping and his generation will die too and when enough time has passed there will be only people in China who never lived under Mao.


Bye-bye, Great Leader!

One might argue that all leaders after Mao are his traitors in one way or another. Enver Hoxha would probably agree with me.

[Rancid]

In the long term Xi Jinping and his generation will die too and when enough time has passed there will be only people in China who never lived under Mao.

Yea, maybe, but the culture the CCP and Xi have put in place can endure.

[Beren]

Yea, maybe, but the culture the CCP and Xi have put in place can endure.

If they were so sure about that they wouldn't have abolished presidential term limits perhaps.

[Rancid]

If they were so sure about that they wouldn't have abolished presidential term limits perhaps.

Fair enough, but the longer Xi is in place, the more time he has to make such a culture more permanent and everlasting.

[Beren]

Fair enough, but the longer Xi is in place, the more time he has to make such a culture more permanent and everlasting.

Whatever he does time works against him, which means he's poised to lose in the long term. He's just another reactionary desperately trying to remain in office as long as he can and gathering as much power as possible to hold back social progress he and his party can't get accustomed to anymore.

Oh those sweet cave home memories!

[Rancid]

Whatever he does time works against him, which means he's poised to lose in the long term. He's just another reactionary desperately trying to remain in office as long as he can and gathering as much power as possible to hold back social progress he and his party can't get accustomed to anymore.

Oh those sweet cave home memories!

I get it, nothing can stop social progress is your argument. Fair enough. The question is, will HK's cantonese culture be destroyed before social progress prevails on the mainland?

[Hong Wu]

I'm mastering the buses now that the MTR is down half the time. Silver lining!

[Beren]

I get it, nothing can stop social progress is your argument. Fair enough. The question is, will HK's cantonese culture be destroyed before social progress prevails on the mainland?

I wouldn't think they have enough time to destroy HK's culture even if they really intend to do such a thing, I'm also sure 2047 appears to be too far for them. It doesn't mean HK could ever avoid getting absorbed by China, but it won't be Xi's China then, and even Xi's daughter graduated from Harvard.

[Rancid]

I'm mastering the buses now that the MTR is down half the time. Silver lining!

Googlemaps is wonderful for figure out bus routes. I tend to take the bus when I'm in a city and I have time (which I usually do)

[Rancid]

I wouldn't think they have enough time to destroy HK's culture even if they really intend to do such a thing, I'm also sure 2047 appears to be too far for them. It doesn't mean HK could ever avoid getting absorbed by China, but it won't be Xi's China then, and even Xi's daughter studies at Harvard.

Maybe, maybe not.