Houthis attack oil refinery in Saudi Arabia, biggest oil refinery in the world, with drones - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15033894
Crantag wrote:I find this to be quite a story.



The Fremen are causing problems for the House Harkonnen on Arrakis. Eventually the Padishah Emperor of the Known Universe will come with his Sardukar legions and try to resolve the issue once and for all, because the ''Spice must flow''.
#15033897
annatar1914 wrote:The Fremen are causing problems for the House Harkonnen on Arrakis. Eventually the Padishah Emperor of the Known Universe will come with his Sardukar legions and try to resolve the issue once and for all, because the ''Spice must flow''.


You are living in the wrong universe. Last time i checked the Padishah Emperor has all the spice it needs and only profits from the fall of Arrakis.
#15033900
JohnRawls wrote:You are living in the wrong universe. Last time i checked the Padishah Emperor has all the spice it needs and only profits from the fall of Arrakis.


That's only propaganda being put out by CHOAM and the Houses of the Landsraad, originating from the Guild in order to calm the people :D ;)

But enough of metaphor. Peak Oil is real, and Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Oil Sheikdoms are in serious trouble.
#15033901
annatar1914 wrote:Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Oil Sheikdoms are in serious trouble.


The royal family and all the other rich families are not in trouble. They have diversified their portfolios away from oil a long time ago. The royal families will be just fine. It's the citizens of those nations that will start to hurt more.
#15033902
annatar1914 wrote:That's only propaganda being put out by CHOAM and the Houses of the Landsraad, originating from the Guild in order to calm the people :D ;)

But enough of metaphor. Peak Oil is real, and Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Oil Sheikdoms are in serious trouble.


Peak Oil is not real in the classical sense. Peak Oil is real in a sense that it won't be needed eventually. Right now just the North American known reserves from Canada and USA can last the world around 100 years. (Oil Shale/Tar sands)
#15033905
Rancid wrote:The royal family and all the other rich families are not in trouble. They have diversified their portfolios away from oil a long time ago. The royal families will be just fine. It's the citizens of those nations that will start to hurt more.


That's precisely why there will be Sunni repeats in effect of the 1979 Iranian Islamic Revolution in all those states, the 'hurting of the citizens'. If I were a Royal, I'd already be in the West.

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@JohnRawls , you said;


Peak Oil is not real in the classical sense. Peak Oil is real in a sense that it won't be needed eventually. Right now just the North American known reserves from Canada and USA can last the world around 100 years. (Oil Shale/Tar sands)


It's definitely real. Unlike you, I'm not a believer in the technological cornucopia. When the last of the easily recoverable oil is reached, when it takes an energy equivalent of a barrel of oil to extract a barrel of oil, the game is soon over. Your Oil Shale/Tar Sands example is proof of that. And no, there is no great alternative to fossil fuels on the horizon, either. The West is now chained by it's very success to the Middle East. It won't be a quick collapse; but it will be a complete collapse.
#15033908
annatar1914 wrote:That's precisely why there will be Sunni repeats in effect of the 1979 Iranian Islamic Revolution in all those states, the 'hurting of the citizens'. If I were a Royal, I'd already be in the West.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

@JohnRawls , you said;




It's definitely real. Unlike you, I'm not a believer in the technological cornucopia. When the last of the easily recoverable oil is reached, when it takes an energy equivalent of a barrel of oil to extract a barrel of oil, the game is soon over. Your Oil Shale/Tar Sands example is proof of that. And no, there is no great alternative to fossil fuels on the horizon, either. The West is now chained by it's very success to the Middle East. It won't be a quick collapse; but it will be a complete collapse.


Breakeven for shale if new wells are built including taxes and logistics:

Image

Average breakeven including old and new production(Bakken field):

Image

Now this is the price for just pure production without taxes and logistics. US shale stands at around 20 right now:

Image

This is a graph from 2016 where they are compared(Now its even better) The names are different US shale fields.(This includes logistics, taxes, risk etc):

Image
#15033910
annatar1914 wrote:The West is now chained by it's very success to the Middle East. It won't be a quick collapse; but it will be a complete collapse.



lol whut?

You realize the US is the world's largest oil produce right?

The middle east and OPEC in general do not have the strangle hold on oil markets like they used to. This is the reason Venezuela is getting screwed hard actually. OPEC cannot control prices like they used to.
#15033911
JohnRawls wrote:Breakeven for shale if new wells are built including taxes and logistics:

Image

Average breakeven including old and new production(Bakken field):

Image

Now this is the price for just pure production without taxes and logistics. US shale stands at around 20 right now:

Image

Now I'm not the most math inclined fellow, have a slight dyslexia in that area, but i'm smelling the suspicious smell of the Energy Industry and their fairy dust at work. As the saying goes, ''figures don't lie but liars to figure''. I imagine the truth lies in those words you mentioned ''new wells'', ''taxes'' and ''logistics''... Shale and Tar Sands Oil extraction is heavily subsidized by the State (actually, the taxpayer), so I think the cost of extraction, heavily camouflaged and disguised by this corporate welfare, is much higher. Nor is this subsidy going to last forever either.

This is a graph from 2016 where they are compared(Now its even better) The names are different US shale fields.(This includes logistics, taxes, risk etc):

Image
#15033912
Rancid wrote:lol whut?

You realize the US is the world's largest oil produce right?

The middle east and OPEC in general do not have the strangle hold on oil markets like they used to. This is the reason Venezuela is getting screwed hard actually. OPEC cannot control prices like they used to.


Pretty much. US is mostly self sufficient. EU can do it(because we have oil shale reserves and a lot of them along with capital) but we just make a choice for now not to do it due to environmental concerns. So we import from Russia and ME instead. But if needed we can either build up our own production or just buy from US instead.
#15033913
Rancid wrote:lol whut?

You realize the US is the world's largest oil produce right?

The middle east and OPEC in general do not have the strangle hold on oil markets like they used to. This is the reason Venezuela is getting screwed hard actually. OPEC cannot control prices like they used to.


This is not a situation that is going to last. It's unsustainable, hence the Trump Administration's feverish and desperate feeding of weaponry and logistical help to the Saudis in their Houthi war in Yemen. So we'll see who's foolish about all this.
#15033914
annatar1914 wrote:graphs


Subsidised? Most of the oil companies outside of the West are Government owned.(That is the pinnacle of being subsidised i guess) US oil is all private, especially the oil shale producers who are small/medium businesses mostly. You can dispute the data but its a fact right now:
1) US oil production is the largest in the world right now due to oil shale.
2) Oil shale production is becoming cheaper and cheaper.
#15033920
JohnRawls wrote:Subsidised? Most of the oil companies outside of the West are Government owned.(That is the pinnacle of being subsidised i guess) US oil is all private, especially the oil shale producers who are small/medium businesses mostly. You can dispute the data but its a fact right now:
1) US oil production is the largest in the world right now due to oil shale.
2) Oil shale production is becoming cheaper and cheaper.


1. US Oil is heavily subsidized by the usual American corporate welfare; tax breaks, tax credits, direct subsidies, etc...

2. That is not sustainable. When it disappears, it will be obvious that the higher US production came at a heavy cost which was put on the American taxpayer, to avoid the day of reckoning.

3. Of course it's going to become somewhat cheaper, relatively speaking, but that bump is only temporary.

Now when I say ''temporary'', I'm talking on a historical time scale, but we'll see it in our lifetimes fail of it's promise.
#15033923
annatar1914 wrote:1. US Oil is heavily subsidized by the usual American corporate welfare; tax breaks, tax credits, direct subsidies, etc...

2. That is not sustainable. When it disappears, it will be obvious that the higher US production came at a heavy cost which was put on the American taxpayer, to avoid the day of reckoning.

3. Of course it's going to become somewhat cheaper, relatively speaking, but that bump is only temporary.

Now when I say ''temporary'', I'm talking on a historical time scale, but we'll see it in our lifetimes fail of it's promise.


Are you implying that tax cuts are responsible for the more efficient production and subsidies? Please provide some examples. As much as i can tell, the cost was dropping due to technological development and process maturation. I haven't heard of any significant examples for what you are implying. And as i said, North American reserves can last us around 100 years.(So its sustainable unless you think of 100+ years term but then we have reserves in Europe for example also) This year US will start exporting this oil on mass by the way so the oil prices also will start decreasing.

Edit: Here is a video actually. I selected the start time so watch from the part about oil a bit in the US:

#15033928
Are you implying that tax cuts are responsible for the more efficient production and subsidies?


I am. Corporate tax cuts and subsidies.


Please provide some examples.


A person isn't going to find what they aren't going to let a person see, but big business has been a huge recipient of this gifting from the taxpayer.


As much as i can tell, the cost was dropping due to technological development and process maturation.


I'm not saying that there isn't that, I do live in an Oil State and have friends in the Industry after all, but it's all being held aloft by a business culture in which it's the middle class, the petit-Bourgeoisie, that foot the bill. Money very predictably distorts the real economic point at which it is not productive to extract-not for private for-profit oil industry anyway...


I haven't heard of any significant examples for what you are implying. And as i said, North American reserves can last us around 100 years.(So its sustainable unless you think of 100+ years term but then we have reserves in Europe for example also) This year US will start exporting this oil on mass by the way so the oil prices also will start decreasing.


I'm not confident in those numbers for the same reason I'm not confident in Anthropogenic Climate Change-they're both ultimately coming from an energy industry that wants to make money.

Edit: Here is a video actually. I selected the start time so watch from the part about oil a bit in the US:



I'll look at it shortly;

Edit; I did. Peter Zeihan... I never could buy what he's selling.
Last edited by annatar1914 on 14 Sep 2019 23:01, edited 1 time in total.
#15033929
annatar1914 wrote:This is not a situation that is going to last. It's unsustainable, hence the Trump Administration's feverish and desperate feeding of weaponry and logistical help to the Saudis in their Houthi war in Yemen. So we'll see who's foolish about all this.


ok... whatever..

Oil just isn't something that worries economist these days.
#15033931
Rancid wrote:ok... whatever..

Oil just isn't something that worries economist these days.


That's because market economists are full of shit and have ideas totally divorced from productive real world economic reality. That's why people are still reading Marx and Milton Friedman is read only by think tanks supported by Big Business.
#15033936
JohnRawls wrote:Pretty much. US is mostly self sufficient. EU can do it(because we have oil shale reserves and a lot of them along with capital) but we just make a choice for now not to do it due to environmental concerns. So we import from Russia and ME instead. But if needed we can either build up our own production or just buy from US instead.



Well, maybe. Some suggest hydrogen as an alternative for vehicle power. I think batteries are the future, though the current technology is lacking here. After all, hydrocarbons are just stored energy, released by breaking hydrogen bonds. But nature has done the work of capturing that energy and it is basically free Barr extraction and processing costs.

But batteries need to be recharged. So there needs to be a source of electricity generation. Iceland and Mediterranean areas, like Italy, have volcanism and might prove suitable locations for geothermal electricity generation. Because the power has to be generated, it is not quite the free lunch that hydro carbons are.
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