China’s economic recovery gathers pace, leaving the US and Europe trailing - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15123793
So far, China is the only country to successfully combat the pandemic even without a vaccine. Due to a combination of containment measures and a hard lockdown in Wuhan, the country has been so successful that Chinese pharmaceutical companies now have to test their vaccine outside of China.

As the Chinese economy rebounds and life goes back to normal, China also shows that there is no trade-off between saving lives and and saving the economy. The latter requires the former as indispensable condition.

While the West keeps on stagnating, alternating between half-measures, tentative re-opening, followed by more half-measures, the Chinese economy has gone back to growth because the pandemic has been dealt with.

If democracy is damaged because democratic regimes are incapable of coping with the pandemic, it won't be because of China. It'll be because democratic leaders can't tell unpopular truth to people at a time of rampant populism. Democracy can't survive without a degree of political maturity. Populism is the death of democracy.

China’s economic rebound from the coronavirus pandemic gathered pace in August with a poll indicating the services sector grew at its fastest pace in more than two years.

The world’s second-largest economy has put the US and much of Europe in the shade with a quick recovery after Covid-19 restrictions were eased.


Activity continued to recover in August, with a gauge of the services industry reaching its strongest level since early 2018 while the expansion in manufacturing activity slowed slightly.

The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for services rose to 55.2 from 54.2 in July, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

A reading above 50 indicates conditions improved from a month earlier. Manufacturing growth slowed marginally, with the PMI dropping to 51 from 51.1 a month earlier. The PMI for small manufacturers continued to decline, dropping to 47.7.

China’s recovery from a slump in the first quarter of 2020 was boosted by government investment, while the reopening of some trading partners helped to support exports – an important part of the Chinese economy.

Service industries, which have been hit hard by the virus, picked up as the government relaxed its lockdown measures, with businesses such as cinemas allowed to open again.

A number of indicators suggest China’s economy strengthened in August, with the stock market, business confidence and home sales all improving.

“Both the manufacturing and services PMIs are expected to stabilise within expansionary territory, with the possibility of a slight acceleration,” said Liu Xuezhi, an economist at the Bank of Communications in Shanghai.

“It’s unlikely that policymakers will roll out large stimulus [measures] over the rest of the year, and they shouldn’t. They should instead focus on implementing existing policies.”

Demand for manufactured goods is increasing but firms are still suffering from a lack of demand.

“The recovery of demand is slower than that of production, which is starting to drag on the economic recovery,” the China Logistics Information Centre, which helped compile the data, wrote in a statement.

“More than half of companies still list the lack of market demand as the main difficulty”, a factor which is making them reluctant to invest in additional production, the organisation said.

Chang Shu, at Bloomberg Economics, said: “Looking ahead, we expect the recovery to continue to make headway, propelled by incremental increases in domestic demand and further opening of overseas economies. That said, returning to pre-pandemic growth rates anytime soon would be a tall order.”

Independent

#15124362
Hundreds of millions are again traveling by public transport in China while the West is facing new lockdowns.

To effectively combat the pandemic is the only way of saving the economy.

China contained Covid-19. Now, hundreds of millions of people there are about to go on vacation at the same time

Image

The ministry predicts 550 million domestic trips to be made this year, while Ctrip, China's largest online travel agency, estimates the number to be over 600 million -- both above 70% of last year's level.

The scale of mass movement in such a short period of time is unthinkable in many parts of the world, where governments are still struggling to control soaring infections. In the United States, the number of coronavirus cases topped 7 million over the weekend. Much of Europe is now in the grip of a second wave of infections; even countries largely spared by the first wave, such as Greece and Croatia, have seen cases surging as tourists took summer vacations following the reopening of Europe's internal borders in June.

But for now, the virus is much less of a concern for Chinese holidaymakers, given China's close to zero local transmission and some of the world's strictest border control measures.
(...)
China has not reported any locally transmitted symptomatic case since mid-August, and is rigorously screening overseas arrivals and workers at risk of exposure to the virus. Last week, it detected its first local asymptomatic infections in over a month, after two port workers unloading frozen imported seafood in Qingdao tested positive for the virus in routine screening.
#15126724
Trump's failed trade wars and failed pandemic response have MADE CHINA GREAT AGAIN. :lol:

China is winning the global economic recovery

Hong Kong (CNN Business)While much of the world scrambles to prevent new coronavirus cases from stalling the fragile recovery from recession, China's economy is hitting its stride again and will end the year more influential than ever.

The world's second largest economy was the only major world power to avoid a recession this year as Covid-19 forced lockdowns and crippled businesses. China's GDP is expected to grow 1.6% this year, while the global economy as a whole will contract 5.2%, according to summer projections from the World Bank.

China built its relatively quick recovery through several measures, including stringent lockdown and population tracking policies intended to contain the virus. The government also set aside hundreds of billions of dollars for major infrastructure projects, and offered cash incentives to stimulate spending among its populace. The payoff has been evident, as tourism and spending rebounded during last week's busy Golden Week holiday period.

By the end of the year, China's share of global GDP is likely to rise by about 1.1 percentage points, according to a CNN Business calculation using World Bank data. That's more than triple the share it gained in 2019. By contrast, the United States and Europe will see their shares dip slightly.

All told, China's economy is expected to be worth about $14.6 trillion by the end of 2020, roughly equivalent to 17.5% of global GDP.

Even without the disruption caused by the virus, China's share would have ticked up this year, according to Larry Hu, chief China economist for Macquarie Group. But China's ability to buck the worldwide trend is accelerating the growth in its importance to the global economy.

"The recovery in China has been much stronger than the rest of the world," Hu added.

A Golden Week boom

The economic improvement has been no more apparent than during this past week, when the country celebrated one of its annual Golden Week holidays. This season's festivities marked the founding of the People's Republic of China and the Moon Festival, and was one of the country's busiest travel seasons of the year.

More than 630 million people traveled around the country during Golden Week, which ended Thursday, according to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism. That's nearly 80% of the numbers who traveled during the same period last year.

Tourist spending, meanwhile, recovered to nearly 70% of last year's level, reaching $70 billion. And movie ticket sales surpassed $580 million during the Golden Week holiday — just 12% shy of last year's record high.

The holiday week's numbers are "encouraging," said Macquarie's Hu.

"As life is returning to normal in mainland China, consumption, especially the service consumption, is under recovery," he said, added that pent-up demand has finally been unleashed.

A more balanced recovery

Even before the holiday, China's economy had been picking up momentum.
An official gauge of manufacturing activity rose to a six-month high in September. A private survey from the media group Caixin, which measures smaller businesses, also showed the sector continued to expand last month.

The services sector is also doing well. An official survey released last week put activity at its highest level in nearly seven years. And on Friday, a Caixin survey revealed that services experienced one of the quickest paces of expansion in the past decade in September.

"Overall, the economy remained in a post-epidemic recovery phase and improved at a faster pace," Wang Zhe, senior economist at Caixin Insight Group, said in a report accompanying Friday's data.

Consumer spending is rebounding, too, in yet another encouraging sign. Economists were concerned earlier this year that China's recovery was too unbalanced, having been driven by lots of state-led infrastructure projects and not enough consumer spending.

And despite trade tensions, China's economy has also benefited from its vital role in global supply chains, according to Louis Kuijs, chief Asia economist at Oxford Economics. The research and advisory group's own calculations also indicate that China will increase its share of global GDP by about a percentage point this year.

"In contrast to expectations of ... changes in global supply chains away from China, it looks as if, at least for now, China's success in shaking off the Covid-19 outbreak and keeping factories operating has strengthened its role in global value chains," Kujis said. He pointed out that US foreign direct investment into China actually rose 6% in the first half of this year, according to China's Ministry of Commerce.

"Even as US-China tensions have worsened dramatically recently, many US multinationals remain keen to engage with China," Kujis said, adding that American firms were likely encouraged by Beijing's decision to remove some barriers to investing in the country's financial sector.

Challenges ahead

While China's recovery has been strong, there are challenges ahead.

Like in other countries, the pandemic has taken a heavy toll on China's poor and rural populations, according to the Fitch Ratings analysts.

The average monthly income collected by rural migrant workers fell nearly 7% in the second quarter compared to a year earlier, according to World Bank estimates that used Chinese government data. The hundreds of millions of people who fit that description typically work in construction, manufacturing and other low paying but vital activities.

And low-income households in China — those who make less than $7,350 a year — experienced the most severe declines in family wealth out of any other income group, according to a survey jointly conducted by China's Southwestern University of Finance and Economics and Ant Group's research institute.

"This suggests the recent recovery in consumption is likely to have been somewhat skewed towards higher-income groups," the Fitch Ratings analysts said.

And Kuijs of Oxford Economics said that US-China tensions remain a concern, even as foreign direct investment grows.

If the United States were to decouple "significantly from China," the country's growth would trend less than half a percentage point lower per year through 2040, he said, as long as other developed countries maintained most ties.

But if other developed countries join the United States, he suspected that impact could be much larger, causing China's GDP growth to fall twice as fast through the same period.
That kind of "substantial" decoupling "would sharply reduce the country's productivity and GDP growth," Kuijs said.
#15127016
Atlantis wrote:
If democracy is damaged because democratic regimes are incapable of coping with the pandemic, it won't be because of China. It'll be because democratic leaders can't tell unpopular truth to people at a time of rampant populism. Democracy can't survive without a degree of political maturity. Populism is the death of democracy.



All of that about China's economy being said, though, this statement itself is quite *conservative* and *statist*, because it implies that the recent [BLM / Antifa] populist movements are 'immature'.

You make it sound as though the U.S. has 'democratic leaders' who are privy to some special 'unpopular truth' that they simply *can't* divulge, at the risk of being 'immature' by doing so.

So your line here just buttresses the *status quo*, blithely dismissing the *reasons* for why Western-style 'democracy' and its 'democratic leaders' may not be politically *enough* right now, and why the BLM / Antifa protests have been taking place on such a widespread basis in the U.S., and even globally.

Basically you're being *patronizing* and *condescending*, especially so by overlooking *why* young people have been protesting in the U.S. against killer cops, fascists, and the establishment's upholding of such government-type and far-right-wing violence.
#15127018
A discussion with a young member of the Chinese Communist Party


The Chinese Communist Party is “an organisation with a deep, deep level of bureaucratisation”

Peter Symonds

16 hours ago
To read this interview in Chinese click here 中文.

The World Socialist Web Site recently spoke with a young man in China who expressed an interest in Trotskyism. He is also a member at the local level of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). He agreed to speak to the WSWS about what it means to be a member of the CCP, the nature of political discussion within the party, what drew him to read the works of Leon Trotsky and his views on the struggle for socialism in China. Due to the dangers posed by the repressive Chinese regime, his actual name and details have not been included in the interview with Peter Symonds, the national WSWS editor for the Socialist Equality Party (Australia).

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/1 ... t-o12.html
#15127024
@ckaihatsu, I have no idea about what you are trying to say.

I'm not interested in antifa or the lunatic fringe. I'm talking about a very real threat to democracy posed by far-right populism. If democracy does fail, the lunatic fringe will be the first to be locked up. The lunatic fringe is a nuisance, but not an existential threat to democracy.
#15127048
Atlantis wrote:
@ckaihatsu, I have no idea about what you are trying to say.

I'm not interested in antifa or the lunatic fringe. I'm talking about a very real threat to democracy posed by far-right populism. If democracy does fail, the lunatic fringe will be the first to be locked up. The lunatic fringe is a nuisance, but not an existential threat to democracy.



Okay, that clarifies it -- you meant 'far-right' populism.

When *I* hear 'populism', I'm usually thinking *left-wing* populism, like that of the 2019 international populist protests, and now 2020 U.S. BLM / Antifa protests.

See this thread:


Conflict in the USA?

viewtopic.php?f=45&t=179091


Now you're down to using the term 'lunatic fringe', which still makes you conservative and statist, since you *are* being dismissive of the politics of BLM / Antifa.
#15127126
Patrickov wrote:
Left-wing people should think about why far-right populism prevail rather than simply denouncing them.



Left-wing people should be *passive* and *contemplative* about the world going by around them, huh?

Good one.

As usual, this kind of propaganda *glosses over* the actual political *content*, pretending as though left and right are just mere physical *oscillations* on a pendulum, or something.

*You* may want to think about why Trump's fascist buddies in Michigan *didn't* prevail recently.
#15127128
ckaihatsu wrote:Left-wing people should be *passive* and *contemplative* about the world going by around them, huh?


If they know why they don't appeal and change their ways, or they can remove those using them to harm others (in a way worse than capitalists) without compromising their principles, it is easy for them to win support.

But instead I see the above quote. Very much illustrates the level of left-wingers.
#15127132
Patrickov wrote:
If they know why they don't appeal and change their ways, or they can remove those using them to harm others (in a way worse than capitalists) without compromising their principles, it is easy for them to win support.

But instead I see the above quote. Very much illustrates the level of left-wingers.



And now you're *stereotyping* leftists as all being desperate mindless drones whose politics causes *harm* to others, without describing the *real world* at all.

Since you conferred the same harmful qualities onto *capitalists*, to a lesser degree, I'd like to hear more about *that* -- how do *capitalists* and their politics in general, harm people?
#15127133
ckaihatsu wrote:And now you're *stereotyping* leftists as all being desperate mindless drones whose politics causes *harm* to others, without describing the *real world* at all.

Since you conferred the same harmful qualities onto *capitalists*, to a lesser degree, I'd like to hear more about *that* -- how do *capitalists* and their politics in general, harm people?


Better than those so-called Socialists and Communists. Look at how China treats Hong Kong, Taiwan and some of the fringe areas of it.

Capitalists serve the interest of me and my contemporaries much more.
#15127137
Patrickov wrote:
Better than those so-called Socialists and Communists. Look at how China treats Hong Kong, Taiwan and some of the fringe areas of it.

Capitalists serve the interest of me and my contemporaries much more.



What are Hong Kong's and Taiwan's *proposed politics*, exactly?

As far as I can see they just want to jump into bed with the West, which is hardly anything *progressive*.

The whole *world* is at an impasse, if you haven't noticed, so merely *lateral* moves are hardly *inspiring*.
#15127158
I think people overlooked the mountain for the molehill. I refer to the propaganda driven campaigns regarding Xingiang, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Trumps failed trade war, Bans on Chinese tech companies etc as if any of that had any bearing on China's trajectory. What part of 'China's educated demographic, industrial and soon financial capacity already exceeds that of Europe and North America combined' is so hard to understand? Digital yuan rollout is causing serious panic in western markets alone. Imagine a currency you can manipulate on the fly in real time. That's the blockchain leveraged yuan in about 1 year from now.
Last edited by Igor Antunov on 13 Oct 2020 02:56, edited 1 time in total.
#15127161
Igor Antunov wrote:What part of 'China's demographic, industrial and soon economic capacity already exceeds that of Europe and North America combined' is so hard to understand?


This is because the Americans and Europeans contributing to the figures themselves. Without decent countries to trade with, the Chinese are not going to sustain that figure.

Watch a few more years before coming to a conclusion.
#15127162
Indirectly perhaps. That's about it. For example Trump's attempt to cut mainland China off from the global semiconductor sector backfired major league baseball. No Dutch lithographic machines? No problem.

SMIC achieves breakthrough in '7nm process'
https://cntechpost.com/2020/10/12/smic- ... ssion=true

In reality, the indigenous capacity for rapid prototyping and advancement in China is already the biggest and most robust in the world.
Last edited by Igor Antunov on 13 Oct 2020 02:59, edited 1 time in total.
#15127166
If you refer to your self-important fanciful attitude regarding the mainland, sure, it will not last. I've been there I know the holier than thou mindset. Hong Kong is already irrelevant, it is experiencing a brain drain to nearby Shenzhen; see the video I posted above. They set aside a cute little technology park just for thousands of Hong Kong STEM brains to enjoy. Not to mention the old switcheroo where it counts for hong kong most of all, the finance sector;

Hong Kong locals lose out, as majority of banking jobs in HK now filled by Mainland Chinese
https://archive.is/Px6V7

Your city is experiencing relative decline, and that's limited to your city. And it was always to be expected. Exceptionalism doesn't last.
#15127169
Igor Antunov wrote:If you refer to your self-important fanciful attitude regarding the mainland, sure, it will not last. I've been there I know the holier than thou mindset. Hong Kong is already irrelevant, it is experiencing a brain drain to nearby Shenzhen; see the video I posted above. They set aside a cute little technology park just for thousands of Hong Kong STEM brains to enjoy. Not to mention the old switcheroo where it counts for hong kong most of all, the finance sector;

Hong Kong locals lose out, as majority of banking jobs in HK now filled by Mainland Chinese
https://archive.is/Px6V7

Your city is experiencing relative decline, and that's limited to your city. And it was always to be expected. Exceptionalism doesn't last.



Those going to settle in Shenzhen will soon find they are bounded by totalitarianism and they will not be able to escape even if they have to.

I know people going the other way round, initially settling in Shenzhen but ultimately out of the country. They must know better than either of us.
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