BREAKING : Belarus hijacks Ryanair flight to arrest opposition journalist - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15173867
CNN wrote:
Ryanair flight 4978 was about to begin its descent to Vilnius in Lithuania on Sunday when it suddenly changed direction after a "security alert," turning sharply east and descending towards the capital of Belarus, Minsk.

Whether that security alert was a fabrication by the Belarus authorities is now at the heart of an incident which has sparked widespread international condemnation and raised serious questions about safety in the skies. Some governments have described the incident as a state-sanctioned hijacking.

One of the passengers on board the Ryanair flight from Athens to Vilnius was Belarus opposition activist Raman Pratasevich, who is wanted on a variety of charges. For him the diversion was much more than an inconvenience. As soon as the plane landed, he was arrested, according to the Belarus Interior Ministry.

The President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has been fending off opposition protests since claiming victory last year after a hotly-disputed election widely condemned by the international community.

Pratasevich is one of dozens of journalists and activists campaigning in exile against Lukashenko's 26-year rule. He is the founder of the Telegram channel Nexta, which helped mobilize anti-Lukashenko protests, and was charged last year with "organizing mass riots and group actions that grossly violate public order." He is on a government wanted list for terrorism.
Just why the plane suddenly changed course depends on whose account one believes. Ryanair says that its crew was "notified by Belarus ATC [air traffic control] of a potential security threat on board and were instructed to divert to the nearest airport, Minsk."

That's not how the Belarus authorities characterized the incident. The Deputy Commander of Air Defense Forces, Major-General Andrey Gurtsevich, claimed that after the Ryanair crew were told of a "possible bomb on board," it was the captain who "made a decision to land at the reserve airfield (Minsk-2)."

Gurtsevich said a Belarus Air Force MiG29 jet was dispatched to monitor the flight and "assist" if necessary.
The Belarus version of events has been met with widespread disbelief and condemnation among the international community, despite an elaborate show of fire trucks when the plane landed, as well as extensive baggage checks. Nothing untoward was found, according to Ryanair.

One reason for skepticism toward the Belarusian authorities' version: When it changed course, the Ryanair Boeing 737 -- with 171 people on board — was much closer to its destination than it was to Minsk. Had there been a bomb on board, to prolong the flight would have been a perverse decision.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen tweeted that it was "utterly unacceptable to force @Ryanair flight from Athens to Vilnius to land in Minsk."

"The outrageous and illegal behaviour of the regime in Belarus will have consequences. Those responsible for the #Ryanair hijacking must be sanctioned. Journalist Roman Protasevich must be released immediately," von der Leyen said in a later tweet.
Josep Borrell, the European Union's top diplomat, said the forced landing was "totally inadmissible," while France's Transport Minister Jean-Baptiste Djebbari was blunter still, tweeting that "hijacking a plane is unacceptable."
British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said that "this outlandish action by Lukashenko will have serious implications."
US also diplomats also weighed in, with US Ambassador to Belarus Julie Fisher tweeting, "Lukashenka and his regime today showed again its contempt for international community and its citizens.

"Faking a bomb threat and sending MiG-29s to force @RyanAir to Minsk in order to arrest a @Nexta journalist on politically motivated charges is dangerous and abhorrent."

A senior Republican in Congress, Rep. Michael McCaul said on Twitter. "To force an Irish aircraft with nearly 200 innocent civilians to land in order to make that arrest is an egregious affront to democratic societies around the world."
The flight was traveling from one EU city to another, briefly passing through Belarus' airspace, and its diversion has serious implications for internationally accepted rules of aviation travel.

The challenge for the European Union and its allies is to come up urgently with actions to reinforce their strong words, as German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas acknowledged when he tweeted "This cannot remain without clear consequences on the part of the EU."

But Lukashenko has previously shrugged off EU sanctions aimed at him and his inner circle. It is — after all — not a group that's deeply dependent on the outside world.

Deeper sanctions would hurt the people of Belarus as much as the regime. In any case, Belarus is not economically beholden to western Europe. The EU accounts for less than 20% of Belarus' trade; Russia accounts for 49%.
The EU had already suspended moves towards closer economic relations with Belarus before last year's widely criticized elections.

It's unclear whether the European Union will take up the incident with the International Civil Aviation Organization, the body entrusted with regulating the world's skies. The ICAO told CNN Sunday that "for the time being this represents a bilateral matter between the specific countries involved. Any investigations would need to be undertaken by suitable national authorities," who could submit a complaint to ICAO's Council or Assembly.
ICAO later said it was "strongly concerned by the apparent forced landing of a Ryanair flight and its passengers, which could be in contravention of the Chicago Convention." The convention governs rules of airspace, aircraft registration and safety.
At dusk Sunday, flight 4978 finally left Minsk after seven hours on the ground -- but minus one very significant passenger. Other opposition figures now fear for Pratasevich's safety.

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who ran against Lukashenko last year and is now in exile in Lithuania, told CNN Sunday: "We really don't what's happening to him (Pratasevich) right now and we know how cruel [Belarus security service] can be."
Tsikhanouskaya said she had been on the same flight from Athens to Vilnius last week. "The escalation of repressions in Belarus, and this situation that's happened with [the] flight is a result of impunity," she told CNN.

"Democratic countries should put much more pressure on this regime on Lukashenko personally to make him understand that."
Last edited by noemon on 24 May 2021 12:35, edited 1 time in total. Reason: OP title and content
#15173881
This is unprecedented Russian terrorism against civilian flights in Europe.

Apparently anyone who has criticised the Kremlin can no longer travely safely inside Europe.

Appeasement only makes terrorists even worse, it does not normalise anything.

Putin figured now that Germany and the US bent the knee on his sanctionable pipeline, they won't do anything if he goes further and who can blame him after all?
#15173919
noemon wrote:This is unprecedented Russian terrorism against civilian flights in Europe.

Apparently anyone who has criticised the Kremlin can no longer travely safely inside Europe.

Appeasement only makes terrorists even worse, it does not normalise anything.

Putin figured now that Germany and the US bent the knee on his sanctionable pipeline, they won't do anything if he goes further and who can blame him after all?

It's likely that Putin didn't know this was going to happen. For several hours, the Kremlin refused to comment, which means there was no official version of events prepared beforehand and ready to roll. This strongly implies that the Kremlin had not been informed by Lukashenko that he was going to do this.
#15173950
Potemkin wrote:It's likely that Putin didn't know this was going to happen. For several hours, the Kremlin refused to comment, which means there was no official version of events prepared beforehand and ready to roll. This strongly implies that the Kremlin had not been informed by Lukashenko that he was going to do this.


No it doesn't. This is perhaps what you choose to believe.

Lukashenko would not have seized a civilian plane without Putin's guarantees.
#15173954
noemon wrote:No it doesn't. This is perhaps what you choose to believe.

Lukashenko would not have seized a civilian plane without Putin's guarantees.

Putin's 'puppets' have a habit of acting as though they have no strings. He has serious trouble trying to 'control' guys like Lukashenko or Kadyrov. They have a track record of doing their own thing, without necessarily asking Putin's permission. Putin 'controls' Lukashenko in pretty much the same way that China 'controls' North Korea. In other words, hardly at all.
#15173956
I'm with @Potemkin. I don't think Putin has anywhere near the control people in the west fantasize that he has. Every level of the Russian government is insanely corrupt and he does a remarkable job of making strategic alliances and steering the various criminal (both legal and moral) elements in a vaguely nationalist way, but he's definitely not omnipotent. He came up under Yeltsin and learned that you can't be as brazenly crooked as Yeltsin - especially when people are starving and the country is an international joke. Like @Potemkin said he has guys like Kadyrov who he literally just bribes in order to keep the Caucasus from being worse than it already is. Honestly its a cheaper, smarter, and more elegant occupation strategy than anything the US has done in the past half-century, but it's not exactly a move that comes from strength and dominance.
#15173959
noemon wrote:No it doesn't. This is perhaps what you choose to believe.

Lukashenko would not have seized a civilian plane without Putin's guarantees.


It is unlikely to be done with anyone's guarantee. We just need to accept that politics and actions of some are not rational in our understanding.

Potemkin is more or less correct that Lukashenko is not in any position of confidence. So he resorts to these kind of actions. Because RA lived in Russia then he also correct at saying that it is kinda amazing that Putin manages to coordinate anything in such a corrupt country. It is his fault because he has literally built this system from the up to bottom but non-the-less it is still impressive.

Lukashenko predates Putin so he is not exactly his puppet like Kadyrov though. Although there is a large element of bribery in both cases as mentioned.
#15173962
Lukashenko is Putin's proxy dictator, much like Hezbollah is Iran's.

Putin is sending yet another message that dissent against the Kremlin will not be tolerated, just like he did with Navalny, when again people keep saying to look the other way, while the opposition sits behind bars.

Both Russia and Belarus are asserting their newfound confidence after the Nordstream, Navalny, Ukraine & Georgia capitulations.
#15173963
noemon wrote:Lukashenko is Putin's proxy dictator, much like Hezbollah is Iran's.

Putin is sending yet another message that dissent against the Kremlin will not be tolerated, just like he did with Navalny, when again people keep saying to look the other way, while the opposition sits behind bars.

Both Russia and Belarus are asserting their newfound confidence after the Nordstream, Navalny, Ukraine & Georgia capitulations.

You think Lukashenko is confident? He causes an international incident and a possible casus belli just to arrest an internet blogger, and you see this as a sign of 'confidence'? Lol.
#15173964
Potemkin wrote:You think Lukashenko is confident? He causes an international incident and a possible casus belli just to arrest an internet blogger, and you see this as a sign of 'confidence'? Lol.


It could go either way. It could be that he really does that much power, and no one will do shit about it. It could also be he is desperate.
#15173965
noemon wrote:Lukashenko is Putin's proxy dictator, much like Hezbollah is Iran's.

Putin is sending yet another message that dissent against the Kremlin will not be tolerated, just like he did with Navalny, when again people keep saying to look the other way, while the opposition sits behind bars.

Both Russia and Belarus are asserting their newfound confidence after the Nordstream, Navalny, Ukraine & Georgia capitulations.


I agree that Lukashenko is indeed heavily dependent on Putin, but it's not a relationship as tight as Hezbollah's with Iran.

I do agree with your last paragraph though, even if Putin wasn't involved Lukashenko believes he can get away with this kind of thing. He's probably right, but as others have suggested it would seem he isn't confident of his grip over Belarussians. It seems he fears the internal opposition more than the EU one, which is likely a correct assessment.
#15173969
Potemkin wrote:You think Lukashenko is confident? He causes an international incident and a possible casus belli just to arrest an internet blogger, and you see this as a sign of 'confidence'? Lol.


You 're being pedantic and trying to milk an argument out of it.

Internal and external confidence are not the same.

Putin is not confident in Russia either and arrests all opposition but he is still confident to invade the Ukraine and Georgia for signing trade agreements with the EU.

Lukashenko is emboldened by the constant capitulations of Europe and the US towards Putin and Erdogan and feels he can act with impunity and he does indeed.
#15173980
noemon wrote:Lukashenko is Putin's proxy dictator, much like Hezbollah is Iran's.

Putin is sending yet another message that dissent against the Kremlin will not be tolerated, just like he did with Navalny, when again people keep saying to look the other way, while the opposition sits behind bars.

Both Russia and Belarus are asserting their newfound confidence after the Nordstream, Navalny, Ukraine & Georgia capitulations.


Not anywhere close. Lukashenko is independent but is reliant on Russian economic aid from time to time. Lukashenko tries to play both sides, well it is not possible anymore but at least he tried to before 2020.

Now the situation has flipped but Putin is reliant on Lukashenko because if Belarussian opposition succeeded then he is basically next. In Putins mind not supporting Lukashenko is a direct threat to his own wellbeing.

So he is both independent and not at the same time.
#15173991
Potemkin wrote:It's likely that Putin didn't know this was going to happen. For several hours, the Kremlin refused to comment, which means there was no official version of events prepared beforehand and ready to roll. This strongly implies that the Kremlin had not been informed by Lukashenko that he was going to do this.




I agree. I seriously doubt that Putin wanted this on his plate at a time his Nord Stream 2 barely dodged a killer bullet. This could reopen the Nord Stream 2 thing all over again at a time he needs just a few more months to complete it and get gas flowing.

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