[Red_Army]

From what I can see, all of the regional powers have a more reasonable view of Afghanistan and share big interests. I can't wait for more handwringing about Russia, China, and Iran "coming to the table" with the Taliban as if it's some unforgivable sin, but I guess being adjacent Afghanistan requires a little more pragmatism.

From what I can tell the only concern that the US has is exporting heroin and dispersing billions to scumbag contractors.

[Igor Antunov]

-Major Clashes within the last few mins in Paghman, a western district of Kabul
-21 provincial capitals in 8 days including 2 of the 3 largest cities in Afghanistan in a single day.
-Biden increases US deployment to Afghanistan to 5,000 as Taliban roll on
-Heavy fighting in and around Jalalabad (Captured by Taliban as of few minutes ago)
-The 209th 'Falcon' Corps of the Afghan army west of Mazar-i-Sharif has surrendered to the Taliban and the city has been taken by Taliban forces
Syria
-U.S. Embassy staff rushed to Kabul airport as Taliban close in
-Equipment was handed over to the Taliban as a result of 'an organized & cowardly plot.'

[Torus34]

The religious/civil war in Afghanistan, begun in 1978, is finally drawing to a conclusion. It was prolonged for decades by the support, first of this group and then of that group, by foreign powers. These foreign powers also employed direct military intervention. That, too, is ending.

The Afghanistan Army, as it has done in the past, will shed uniforms and melt back into the general population. Bloodshed will slow and then stop as the population adjusts to its new masters.

Given the nature of religion and, in particular, religious fundamentalism, the Taliban will probably, some time in the future, attempt to export their particular view of Islam to other Muslim nations. First, though, they will be occupied by consolidating their control over Afghanistan.

It is difficult, at this moment, to say whether the US political movers and shakers have learned anything from the Afghan experience. All we can be certain of is that the usual political bickering and finger-pointing will occupy front pages and talk shows for a while.

Regards, stay safe 'n well.

[colliric]

They've now entered Kabul on all sides apparently.

https://www.9news.com.au/national/afgha ... ea0bd75e40

The anti-US section of the Muslim world is probably going to celebrate this endlessly.

[Igor Antunov]

Afghan government has surrendered. Taliban have taken the capital and inherited the entire ANA in a transitional agreement. Taliban leader has been appointed Afghan President. Im on phone cant type elegant response so this image will have to speak for me.

[QatzelOk]

They won.

It's not over yet.

The USA and its democratic Western allies can still sanction Talibanized Afghanistan so that children don't get basic acces to essential drugs or food.

Then, the NED can start sponsoring anti-Taliban hiphop bands in Kabul.

There's just so much that can still be done to "help."

[Heisenberg]

Then, the NED can start sponsoring anti-Taliban hiphop bands in Kabul.

Good lord, Qatz, don't give them any ideas!

Of course, it might be a bit harder to persuade people to do this when the likely outcome is being flogged and then beheaded in a football stadium (the only proper response to CIA-approved rap).

[wat0n]

I think the US was fully aware of what was going to happen after finally leaving Afghanistan for good, although the pace of the collapse of the Afghan government probably surprised them.

Anyway, I don't really think the Afghan War was useless or anything. I'm certain the Taliban are fully deterred from hosting those who attack American soil and possibly will (if anything) refrain from attacking American interests in the future (along with Russian and Chinese ones). And who knows, maybe they will want to start shit with their neighbors to the West...

[B0ycey]

Anyway, I don't really think the Afghan War was useless or anything. I'm certain the Taliban are fully deterred from hosting those who attack American soil and possibly will (if anything) refrain from attacking American interests in the future (along with Russian and Chinese ones). And who knows, maybe they will want to start shit with their neighbors to the West...

The Taliban have made a deal with the US. If they were on the offensive they would have taken Kabul completely by now and not allowed flights. So any risk of terrorism from the Taliban (even though Bin Laden was Al Qaeda) in the future really depends on the US. The Taliban act on faith wars. They are like a swarm if bees. They will attack anyone and die doing so but only if some shakes the nest first.

[wat0n]

The Taliban have made a deal with the US. If they were on the offensive they would have taken Kabul completely by now and not allowed flights. So any risk of terrorism from the Taliban (even though Bin Laden was Al Qaeda) in the future really depends on the US. The Taliban act on faith wars. They are like a swarm if bees. They will attack anyone and die doing so but only if some shakes the nest first.

Maybe. I'm not really sure if the US did anything to them to make them refuse to hand over Osama bin Laden.

That deterrence is one achievement of this war from the US' perspective. Of course, this could have been achieved 10 years ago, after Osama was killed. And probably even sooner than that (several years before that, in fact).

[B0ycey]

That deterrence is one achievement of this war from the US' perspective. Of course, this could have been achieved 10 years ago, after Osama was killed. And probably even sooner than that (several years before that, in fact).

The deterrent was achieved once Al Qaeda pissed off into Pakistan. And should terrorism return to Afghanistan, the US will not hesitate to bomb the shit out of Al Qaeda again in any case. But terrorism only occurs with interference. It isn't a coincidence that terrorism has lessened in the West as our presence in the ME and Afghanistan weakens. And today the US have made a deal with the Taliban. So I don't see why we should expect to see the an increase of terrorism now Afghanistan has fallen? If anything, as we are now not in holly lands we should see even less terrorism actually.

[colliric]

If you want to know why the Middle East hates your Army, this is another reason you just gave them.

[Patrickov]

The religious/civil war in Afghanistan, begun in 1978, is finally drawing to a conclusion.

It was over in or around 2000. Had 9/11 not happened there would not have been another 20 years of fighting, so even to the Islamic maniacs' point of view they only have themselves to blame -- they made themselves fight another two decades.

[Torus34]

It was over in or around 2000. Had 9/11 not happened there would not have been another 20 years of fighting, so even to the Islamic maniacs' point of view they only have themselves to blame -- they made themselves fight another two decades.

Hi, Patrickov!

Thank you for taking time to comment.

Regards, stay safe 'n well.

[Rich]

Yes the mission was accomplished. The near-irreversible transfer of power from the Sunni Arab based rule of the Saddam regime to the Shia majority and the Kurdish proto state. Development, progress, "enlightenment" in Iraq may not be as fast or as steady as we might ideally like post 2003, but development and progress there has most certainly been. Iraq was trapped in an endless nightmare prior to 2003. It wasn't just about Saddam being a nasty guy but the social basis of the regime, based on the Sunni Arab minority, although actually to significant degree on a sub set of the clans within the Sunni Arab minority. Saddam was loathed even by most Sunni Arabs. Progress could only come through a Shia political revolution.

And after the failure of the 1991 uprising that revolutionary transfer to majority rule could only come through external intervention. The idea that the majority could liberate themselves was a laughable as the idea that the French the Poles, or even the Yugoslavs or the Albanians could liberate themselves from Nazi occupation without the mass conventional militaries of the Soviet Union, the Commonwealth and the United States. There were only 2 candidates for that role in Iraq, Iran or the USA. As the USA wouldn't let Iran do it, it was America's moral duty, not right, but duty to remove Saddam.

South and central Iraq clearly has the makings of the core of a viable nation state. Afghanistan as you yourself have indicated was a very different kettle of fish. Supporting the Northern alliance militarily was viable, credible and sensible. It was also sustainable for 20, 50 even a 100 hundred years. An endless low scale war should not be seen as a problem for the military, but as a wonderful opportunity for training and the testing of equipment, organisation, leadership and doctrines. The Northern alliance were far from brilliant but combined with Western air power and modest sustainable forces they could do the minimum job that was needed, clearing the Taliban from North Afghanistan and denying the knights of the Prophet their victory.

[Rugoz]

It was also sustainable for 20, 50 even a 100 hundred years. An endless low scale war should not be seen as a problem for the military, but as a wonderful opportunity for training and the testing of equipment, organisation, leadership and doctrines.

It was sustainable in the sense that it made up only ~6% of the US defense budget. Still, of what use is such "training and testing" in a potential high intensity conflict with China?

[annatar1914]

@Rich , concerning the real geopolitics of the matter, you said;

Yes the mission was accomplished. The near-irreversible transfer of power from the Sunni Arab based rule of the Saddam regime to the Shia majority and the Kurdish proto state. Development, progress, "enlightenment" in Iraq may not be as fast or as steady as we might ideally like post 2003, but development and progress there has most certainly been. Iraq was trapped in an endless nightmare prior to 2003. It wasn't just about Saddam being a nasty guy but the social basis of the regime, based on the Sunni Arab minority, although actually to significant degree on a sub set of the clans within the Sunni Arab minority. Saddam was loathed even by most Sunni Arabs. Progress could only come through a Shia political revolution.

Which leads to the breakthrough of the Iranian Islamic Revolution.

And after the failure of the 1991 uprising that revolutionary transfer to majority rule could only come through external intervention. The idea that the majority could liberate themselves was a laughable as the idea that the French the Poles, or even the Yugoslavs or the Albanians could liberate themselves from Nazi occupation without the mass conventional militaries of the Soviet Union, the Commonwealth and the United States. There were only 2 candidates for that role in Iraq, Iran or the USA. As the USA wouldn't let Iran do it, it was America's moral duty, not right, but duty to remove Saddam.

America-wittingly or unwittingly-did destroy Saddam's regime for the benefit of Iran and it's revolution.

South and central Iraq clearly has the makings of the core of a viable nation state. Afghanistan as you yourself have indicated was a very different kettle of fish. Supporting the Northern alliance militarily was viable, credible and sensible. It was also sustainable for 20, 50 even a 100 hundred years. An endless low scale war should not be seen as a problem for the military, but as a wonderful opportunity for training and the testing of equipment, organisation, leadership and doctrines. The Northern alliance were far from brilliant but combined with Western air power and modest sustainable forces they could do the minimum job that was needed, clearing the Taliban from North Afghanistan and denying the knights of the Prophet their victory.

The real question is; does this help secure or help destroy China's outreach to Iran and Pakistan and Central Asia, the Taliban being in power?

[Crantag]

@Rich
The real question is; does this help secure or help destroy China's outreach to Iran and Pakistan and Central Asia, the Taliban being in power?

This is just my speculation, but seems like it only helps secure it to me.

The former Afghan government, dependent on the US for 'protection', it seems to me, would not have had much to do with China.

Now, it would seem, the way is clear, with the new Taliban government. As for the current state of the political relations of the Taliban and China, I really don't have much of a clue. It is an interesting question.

I would think China would see this as an opportunity to provide 'aid' to Afghanistan. Even perhaps in exchange for mineral rights, and what not.

China and Afghanistan also share a boarder, a small one--a corridor really--but that can be a factor here, as well, I would think.


Edit, I was curious so checked out youtube, to see what I could see.

From today:

From a month ago:

[QatzelOk]

Good lord, Qatz, don't give them any ideas!

Already been done.

US co-opted Cuba’s hip-hop scene to spark change

HAVANA (AP) — For more than two years, a U.S. agency secretly infiltrated Cuba’s underground hip-hop movement, recruiting unwitting rappers to spark a youth movement against the government, according to documents obtained by The Associated Press.

The idea was to use Cuban musicians “to break the information blockade” and build a network of young people seeking “social change,” documents show. But the operation was amateurish and profoundly unsuccessful.

On at least six occasions, Cuban authorities detained or interrogated people involved in the program; they also confiscated computer hardware, and in some cases it contained information that jeopardized Cubans who likely had no idea they were caught up in a clandestine U.S. operation. Still, contractors working for the U.S. Agency for International Development kept putting themselves and their targets at risk, the AP investigation found.

They also ended up compromising Cuba’s vibrant hip-hop culture — which has produced some of the hardest-hitting grassroots criticism since Fidel Castro came to power in 1959. Artists that USAID contractors tried to promote left the country or stopped performing after pressure from the Cuban government, and one of the island’s most popular independent music festivals was taken over after officials linked it to USAID. ...

And this is part of this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Isidro_Movement

So the USA can have a dead imperial finger stuck up your asse many decades after its been officially kicked out of the country. This is done by buying mercenaries who have been pre-starved by sanctions.