SPD seems to have won German Bundestag elections - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15192404
The Guardian wrote:SPD extends narrow lead

At 10pm local time, the centre-left SPD’s narrow lead over its centre-right CDU/CSU rival continues to grow, according to both sets of projections by public broadcasters ARD and ZDF.

Based on an amalgam of exit polls and partial counts of polling staion and postal ballots, the ARD/Infratest dimap projection puts finance minister Olaf Scholz’s party on 25.8% of the vote and 205 seats in the 730-seat Bundestag, against 24.2% and 195 seats for Armin Laschet’s CDU/CSU.

The same provisional results give potential coalition partners the Greens 114 seats and the liberal FDP 91 MPs.
#15192406
B0ycey wrote:Social Democracy seems to have a greater appeal in Europe it seems.


Social democracy is merely not demonized in Europe as is in the Anglo-Saxon world.

Corbyn is not a whacko in Europe while he is a persona non grata in the UK.

The UK does not even have an AOC who pays lips service to ingrained interests.
#15192410
The Guardian wrote:Agence-France Presse has a handy guide to what happens next:

First, all parties embark on what are known as “exploratory talks”. In this initial phase, which has no time limit, there is nothing to stop the parties from all holding coalition talks in parallel - though tradition dictates that the biggest party invites smaller ones for discussions.

However, Armin Laschet, the chancellor candidate from Merkel’s centre-right CDU-CSU bloc, has said the conservatives would “do everything we can” to lead the next government, even after preliminary results put them a touch behind the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD).

SPD candidate Olaf Scholz, the country’s finance minister, also said voters wanted a change and for “the next chancellor to be called Olaf Scholz”. The Greens have called a party congress for 2 October during which they could decide with whom they would take up exploratory talks.

The pro-business FDP party, which like the Greens could play a kingmaker role, has said it has a preference for a coalition with the conservatives and the Greens, but a three-way alliance with the SPD and Greens remains on the table too.

On Monday, the parties will hold leadership meetings. The newly elected MPs from each party will also hold their first meetings next week, with the SPD and CDU-CSU planning to convene on Tuesday. The newly elected parliament must hold its inaugural session no later than 30 days after the election, on October 26.

If two or three parties agree in principle that they would like to form an alliance, they must then begin formal coalition negotiations, with various working groups meeting to thrash out policy issues.

At the end of these negotiations, the parties decide who will be in charge of which ministry and sign a coalition contract. This phase also has no time limit, with the outgoing government - Angela Merkel’s adminsitration - holding the fort in the meantime.

The parties then nominate who they would like to be chancellor before the official vote in the Bundestag.

That's the German way, people. ;)

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#15192413
B0ycey wrote:Social Democracy seems to have a greater appeal in Europe it seems. Although it is neck and neck with the CDU and under this system it isn't the party who has the most votes that form government but how can form a government of coalition.


The SPD in Germany is a center-left party. Die Linke are the hardcore left-wingers. They only got 5% this time (down from 9.2%).
#15192415
Rugoz wrote:The SPD in Germany is a center-left party. Die Linke are the hardcore left-wingers. They only got 5% this time (down from 9.2%).


It is difficult to engage in this election given I don't really know what the pledges of each party are. Although from what I do know is the SPD want to share debt burden in the Euro and I have always thought that was important for sustainability of the Eurozone given that has always been its main problem. So perhaps I would have voted SDP for that alone.

Having said that Social Democracy seems to have galvanised recently and I am guessing a party that uses such a name has many of those ideals.
#15192486
B0ycey wrote:Social Democracy seems to have a greater appeal in Europe it seems. Although it is neck and neck with the CDU and under this system it isn't the party who has the most votes that form government but how can form a government of coalition.


SPD is centre left. They are not really social democrats by European standards. Die Linke would fall in that category.

I guess a CDU-SPD alliance again is on the table with SPD taking the lead.
#15192489
JohnRawls wrote:SPD is centre left. They are not really social democrats by European standards. Die Linke would fall in that category.

I guess a CDU-SPD alliance again is on the table with SPD taking the lead.


Aren't they polar in policy though? Perhaps had the CDU won maybe. I expect to see a Green, SPD and FDP coalition. But I don't know enough of this election to make a concrete prediction.

Having said that, Social Democracy is Centre Left surely. Isn't the Left either meant to be Marxism, Leninism or extreme SJWness depending on how pink your knickers are?
#15192490
B0ycey wrote:Aren't they polar in policy though? Perhaps had the CDU won maybe. I expect to see a Green, SPD and FDP coalition. But I don't know enough of this election to make a concrete prediction.

Having said that, Social Democracy is Centre Left surely. Isn't the Left either meant to be Marxism, Leninism or extreme SJWness depending on how pink your knickers are?


Ehhh, no. I mean there is a specific word for it in german language: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_coalition_(Germany)

Merkels coalition is CDU and SPD.
#15192494
B0ycey wrote:Isn't the Left either meant to be Marxism, Leninism or extreme SJWness depending on how pink your knickers are?

I'd think they're more-or-less like Corbyn (Democratic Socialist), whereas SPD = Labour - Corbyn. If you put them together, you'd get a German Labour Party, basically.
#15192495
JohnRawls wrote:Ehhh, no. I mean there is a specific word for it in german language: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_coalition_(Germany)

Merkels coalition is CDU and SPD.


Well I know enough to know Merkels party is the CDU and most definitely not the SPD. I wasn't talking about the Grand Coalition in any case but that I think the SPD is more affiliated to more Liberal parties like the Greens and the FDP and not the CDU. It perhaps makes more sense for the CDU to merge with the SPD because the other right-wing party is the AFD. But the SPD is the leading party and I expect to see a SPD, Green, FDP coalition given that makes more sense to me. But I don't know enough about German politics to make a solid prediction.
Last edited by B0ycey on 27 Sep 2021 14:14, edited 1 time in total.
#15192496
Beren wrote:I'd think they're more-or-less like Corbyn (Democratic Socialist), whereas SPD = Labour - Corbyn. If you put them together, you'd get a German Labour Party, basically.


Well then the SPD was most definitely the party for me then. Corbyn was never Left Wing that Decky always talked about but left wing of the Scandinavian variety. If Germany has taken this route, then Germany is moving in the right direction.
#15192497
Beren wrote:I'd think they're more-or-less like Corbyn (Democratic Socialist), whereas SPD = Labour - Corbyn. If you put them together, you'd get a German Labour Party, basically.


I guess this is a fair way to think about SPD in a sense that it is a lot closer to Starmer than to Corbyn.
#15192499
B0ycey wrote:Well then the SPD was most definitely the party for me then. Corbyn was never Left Wing that Decky always talked about but left wing of the Scandinavian variety. If Germany has taken this route, then Germany is moving in the right direction.

Corbyn's actually left of Scandinavian Social Democracy, but he would have had to make a compromise with the rest of Labour if he ever had become PM, so the result would have been something like Scandinavian Social Democracy indeed.
#15192501
Beren wrote:Corbyn's actually left of Scandinavian Social Democracy, but he would have had to make a compromise with the rest of Labour if he ever had become PM, so the result would have been something like Scandinavian Social Democracy indeed.


It would have been interesting had Corbyn been in power. He was right about the amount the UK could borrow it seems given the amount of borrowing we had over Covid being significantly more than the Labour manifesto. And with Gas prices skyrocketing, there was never been a better illustration of the need to re-nationalise key services. Corbyn was the right man with the wrong history. I don't know whether Starmer can improve his image, but I do think Long-Bailey could win the next election given people are waking up to Social Democracy today. Germany is no fluke.
#15192505
B0ycey wrote:Corbyn was the right man with the wrong history.

He also had the wrong stance on or approach to Brexit, it was the Brexit battle he should have won but did lose. He basically castrated Labour on Brexit, so it couldn't be a potent anti-Brexit and an effective political force, so Labour had to lose. That's Corbyn's legacy.

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#15192506
Beren wrote:He also had the wrong stance on or approach to Brexit, it was the Brexit battle he should have won but did lose. He basically castrated Labour on Brexit, so it couldn't be a potent anti-Brexit and an effective political force, so Labour had to lose. That's Corbyn's legacy.


Could any Labour leader fix Brexit? Brexit didn't run down party lines unfortunately. Whatever side Corbyn took, he would have lost the election. He either split the Remain vote or the Leave vote. He tried to fence sit, but ultimately agreed to another referendum. That made him a remainer to Brexiteers and they voted for Tories in the Red Wall. It seems a farce now to say that Swinson could have won the last election, but she could have had Corbyn took the hard Brexit approach. But as I said, he was the right man at the wrong time and I think Long Bailey can only build on his legacy given Corbyns popularity seems to be building every crisis we have. :hmm:
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