[B0ycey]

@B0ycey

The position of Biden is that Russia is massing troops to have a realistic, credible option to invade Ukraine. Its position is not that they know for sure if Russia indeed will invade Ukraine. So, it's important to clarify that. I think Putin will invade Ukraine IF he thinks the costs to him won't be too high. Some of those costs would include the political price he would pay at home when Russian troops come home in coffins during the invasion, which will happen. Of course, he might try to hide those casualties from the Russian public too, but the Russian public isn't dumb and will figure out that Putin is trying to hide those casualties from them.

All I said is that the invasion of Ukraine at this moment in time is Biden's rhetoric and not Putin's. We have Igor seem confused on this given he said the opposite was Western Propaganda.

But I have to ask, we had troops at the border last year and then they pissed off home after a training exercise. So what is happening? Preparation. Well no. Russia sent troops to the border for two reasons. One because it is their sovereign territory and they use it to showcase their rights and military capacity. And two, to piss off America and make them make absurd claims that Russia are about to invade Ukraine. Eventually the troops might reduce again, but you can be certain they won't be used as the aggressor in invasion as that would be a huge own goal for Russia.

As for what might come into the future, well I would say Russia are just like any other nation and are opportunists. If they could take back and recreate the SU they would, but in realistically that won't happen unless the US are preoccupied else where.

[tomskunk]

@B0ycey

Putin is a cunning and calculating fellow who thinks he is entitled to Ukraine and control of it. Putin isn't stupid and is trying to figure out how much he would pay for invading Ukraine and if the price to him is worth it. That's what he is trying to figure out right now. He might decide the cost to him is worth it and roll the dice and take the risk. But, if he does, he will most certainly get hit with sanctions along with the inner circle that he trusts with his money. I am pretty confident, an invasion by Ukraine, would bring more U.S. troops into the region (not Ukraine but on the soil of NATO allies) to assure our allies and make clear to Russia if they attack those NATO member states they will be fighting the United States (and most likely it's allies).

[B0ycey]

Putin is a cunning and calculating fellow who thinks he is entitled to Ukraine and control of it. Putin isn't stupid and is trying to figure out how much he would pay for invading Ukraine and if the price to him is worth it. That's what he is trying to figure out right now. He might decide the cost to him is worth it and roll the dice and take the risk.

Putin is cunning and he is calculated. He is ex KGB and very nationalist towards mother Russia. But one thing he isn't is stupid. Ukraine is by and large a hostile state. It is also a sovereign state. If they got involved, so will America. But this time it is America and not Russia who would have legality to be there. If he could take Ukraine he would. But if not be will just use economic hardship and punishment instead which is what he is doing now. So no, I doubt Putin is wondering what cost he will take to get Ukraine back. He hasn't even shown an interest to get Donbass back which would be quite easy for him to do. And maybe he might make America think he will take it back by training near the Ukraine-Russia border every other month or so. It certainly has got us and Biden talking about it and so perhaps is a win for Russia that the West is gullible. I don't know. But what I do know is if Russia haven't invaded in 7years, I don't know why people think things are about to change now. And in another seven years we will be repeating the same lines we are now given Russia training at the Ukraine border is going to be the new normal.

[tomskunk]

@B0ycey

Putin can take Ukraine now. He has the military might to do it. We won't fight Russia directly over Ukraine. If Russian tanks rolled into Estonia or Latvia, which are NATO member states, yes, then Russia would end up directly fighting the United States along with its NATO allies. Which would be a disaster for all sides. But the U.S. would fight Russia if it attacked a NATO member state.

That being said, even though Putin can take Ukraine, he might very well take heavy casualties doing so which could cause him political problems at home. It's hard to say as I don't have a crystal ball to foresee in the future. I do think Ukraine will put up more of a fight this time given the aid it has received and it appears they are motivated to fight the Russians (at least the Ukrainian-speaking portion of Ukraine along with some of the Russian speakers). That's my educated guess.

Nobody knows for sure unless an invasion actually happens. The U.S. is not going to fight Russia over Ukraine. It will sanction Putin and his inner circle and maybe send weapons to Ukraine if Russia doesn't quickly defeat Ukrainian armed forces. That's about as far as the U.S. would go in helping Ukraine. But Russia attacking actual NATO members would be a different story.

Putin, his inner circle, and the Russian economy would pay a heavy economic price though if it did invade Ukraine a second time. Our sanctions would probably directly go after the Russian economy and Putin's wealth directly. That could factor in Putin's calculations as to whether he will order an invasion or not. He knows his wealth can be directly targeted and he knews the U.S can cut the Russian economy off from the financial system too, which the U.S. has refrained from doing thus far.

[B0ycey]

Putin can take Ukraine now. He has the military might to do it. We won't fight Russia directly over Ukraine. If Russian tanks rolled into Estonia or Latvia, which are NATO member states, yes, then Russia would end up directly fighting the United States.

Actually, I am more confident the US would engage in Ukraine than they would over Taiwan. Because without going into sovereignty debate, the US would have UN support with Ukraine if Russia attacked first and I doubt they could get it over Taiwan if China did likewise.

The truth is, Russia could defeat Ukraine but they would have a problem controlling it. Very much like Afghanistan in which a third world shithole held off both the US and Russia. And they would also be engaged with a diplomatic row with neutral nations let alone the cost to them in terms of financial and lives. And I doubt Europe on the whole would tolerate a Russian invasion in any case as there is the potential that Poland, Latvia, Estonia could be next. So NATO would be forced into war, even if they didn't want to, very much like what happened to begin WW2. Which is why Russia won't invade. That and the status quo is to their advantage in any case. But that doesn't mean they won't piss the US off by moving troops to the Ukrainian border or take advantage if the US decide to move their focus away from Europe and onto Asia.

Besides, Putin and Biden had a zoom meeting the other day. Only Biden thinks Russia are going to invade and Putin told him that as long as Ukraine doesn't join NATO, he has nothing to worry about. Ukraine won't ever join NATO as Biden will know that is a red line and as such Russia won't invade Ukraine. Both leaders might talk tough, but they know the limits they can do and won't go beyond that.

[tomskunk]

@B0ycey

I think there is a very good chance Russia will invade Ukraine. The US won't engage against Russia in Ukraine because we have no treaty obligations. Moreover, the U.S. and Russia cannot afford to get into a war with each other. The consequences would be dire given that both sides have a large nuclear arsenal and it could escalate easily and unexpectedly.

[B0ycey]

@B0ycey

I think there is a very good chance Russia will invade Ukraine. The US won't engage against Russia in Ukraine because we have no treaty obligations. Moreover, the U.S. and Russia cannot afford to get into a war with each other. The consequences would be dire given that both sides have a large nuclear arsenal and it could escalate easily and unexpectedly.

Well the consequence would be the same if you protected Taiwan.

If Russia invade Ukraine, the US will get involved I can assure you. And sure both nations don't want to fight each other. But as I said Putin told Biden as long as Ukraine doesn't join NATO, he has nothing to worry about. So what exactly makes you think Russia want to risk everything on a situation that is currently working very well for them?

As long as Ukraine stay out of NATO there will be no war.

[Robert Urbanek]

Backed in a corner, Putin becomes Scarface, showing his hypersonic missile. "Say hello to my little friend."

[litwin]

There is certainly an arms race started by China/Russia.

Let's see where this goes.

no, my friend what has started today , its tons of Wunderwaffel ´s BS posts produced by paid Olgino trolls all over e-net . Moscow has lost this war already, nothing will save pootler and his Nigeria with snow the reality :

[litwin]

[Rancid]

Well the consequence would be the same if you protected Taiwan.

If Russia invade Ukraine, the US will get involved I can assure you. And sure both nations don't want to fight each other. But as I said Putin told Biden as long as Ukraine doesn't join NATO, he has nothing to worry about. So what exactly makes you think Russia want to risk everything on a situation that is currently working very well for them?

As long as Ukraine stay out of NATO there will be no war.

[wat0n]

Well the consequence would be the same if you protected Taiwan.

If Russia invade Ukraine, the US will get involved I can assure you. And sure both nations don't want to fight each other. But as I said Putin told Biden as long as Ukraine doesn't join NATO, he has nothing to worry about. So what exactly makes you think Russia want to risk everything on a situation that is currently working very well for them?

As long as Ukraine stay out of NATO there will be no war.

This didn't age well

[litwin]

[litwin]

:|

ITS THE VERY LAST WAR OF THE GOLDEN HORDE

[Rancid]

This didn't age well

Indeed. I like @B0ycey and his posting. It's a shame he's decided to sit out pofo. That said, I know me and him disagreed a lot on this sort of stuff. Especially when it comes to US/EU and China relations. He was more of the mind set that it is possible to coexist with China, and that basically we should let them have their playground (i.e. appease China). Whereas, historically, appeasement simply doesn't work, it only emboldens.

[litwin]

Ukrainian MoD offers Muscovite pilots USD 1 million to surrender aircraft & USD 500K for helicopter.

A SMART move, EU´d added 10 million more,+ emigration to Canada, NZ or Australia

[Igor Antunov]

When you resort to bribery you know things are desperate. NATO is effectively neutered and unable to act.

[wat0n]

When you resort to bribery you know things are desperate. NATO is effectively neutered and unable to act.

t. retard

That's far cheaper, easier and potentially more devastating for the Russians.

[Igor Antunov]

t. retard

That's far cheaper, easier and potentially more devastating for the Russians.

No it's not. It's an act of desperation. It's what the Anglo-Saxons did to keep the Vikings from pillaging their villages repeatedly. It's a literal Tribute.

[wat0n]

The bribes would be for the soldiers, not for the Russian government

1 Stinger missile costs around $120k, so $500k to get a defection of a Russian pilot is dirt cheap.