noemon wrote:Nobody and I mean nobody expected Switzerland to go to war with Germany and she never did, despite getting occupied by Germany. Yet you do have the expectation for Ukraine to go to war with Russia even though Ukrainians and Russians are even closer than Swiss Germans and Germans.
How do you square this circle?
Is Polish-Lithuanian nationalism, the arch-enemy of the Ukrainian people in their national consciousness somewhat relevant here?
As I said your wishful thinking is not really relevant here.
You are well steeped into propaganda. Let's make it clear for you. Russia at its lowest currently occupies over 20% of Ukraine. All of Ukranian strategic objectives to dislodge Russia have failed. The entire country is destroyed while Russia is untouched and that even in the lowest point Russia has ever been. Foreign support for Ukraine has always been lukewarm and becoming even colder as time goes by.
It has a lot of lives to gain from this while with continuing the war it has absolutely nothing to gain. It will never make more than what it already has, it will simply lose more people & more territory which is utterly ridiculous indeed.
Dude, while this nonsense is cute, we both know that it is not true at all. Ukranians and Russians are indistinguishable and are totally intelligible when communicating with each other, more than the language, the entire national consciousness is identical.
I support Ukraine with deeds and words and because I support you, I am advising you to end this now you have somewhat of a middle hand. You will never find Russia in a worse position to negotiate, you will never find the west more unified on this and after September western support is going to fizzle out if a huge breakthrough has not materialised.
You know as well as I, that Ukraine defeating Russia and forcing it to accept surrender is never going to happen, you also know as well as I, that Putin is also totally irrelevant to all this. It makes no difference if its Putin or somebody else.
So, instead of talking about taking back Crimea, get back to Planet Earth before they turn you into another Palestine.
The War will not end, this is already outside of logical domain and both sides will fight till the end or at least till the point they can fight because:
1) Ukranian leadership and Zelensky have no choice since hatred for Russia and love of Ukranian independence in the hearts and minds of average joes inside Ukraine itself is over the top. Bloodshed, Russian intentions and patriotic propaganda did their job.
2) Putin can't stop because his regime legitimacy depends on it. He has an election in 2023 to win and signing a defeatist peace to get his 5th, 6th term or whatever is not on his agenda. Nor on the agenda for the survival of his regime and his personal life-long rule till his death.
So you see, from a leadership/country elite standpoint the resolution is not possible. Now some material or reality conditions might make it possible:
If we go for Ukraine:
1) They take back all the land, which right now seems hard to believe but you never know in a longer perspective with the Russian war machine being grinded down little by little, day by day without being able to replenish its MATERIAL losses. Man power losses are nothing to scoff at since they produce internal instability.
2) Economic collapse of Russia. This is related to the first point sort off. All know by now that Russia is on a clock right now and at some point they will fully run out of money. Probably by end of year the shortage will become critical. So they will have to choose what to cut on, pensions, military, secret services, repressive aparatus. There is no good choice here for Putin regime so it will all lead to instability within Russia which Ukraine will use in one form or the other.
If we go for Russia:
1) They can ramp up the campaign of destruction by normal means. There are things that Russia could do to kill a lot more Ukranians than it does right now. And by a lot more I mean creating man-made disasters with civilians casualties in the 100s of thousands like blowing up the Dam that is near Kiev for example and other places. Attacking nuclear power plants and so on.
2) Use of tactical nukes, just a hardcore version of the first point.
As you notice, although Russia can't stop the war on strategic level, there is no real solution for them to end the war on a smaller level besides commiting EXTREME atrocities through different means. Those extreme attrocities have a price way beyond anything they could realistically take. Russia would be a pariah state on the level of North Korea because of them and then much, much harsher sanctions will be implemented along with NATO probably intervening directly in Ukraine. So Russian options are not really good or so usable compared to Ukranians who can fight and wait both of which they are doing and would be doing anyways.
Long story short: Russia has no easy way to break Ukranian morale to sign a peace treaty. Ukraine has 2 realistic options how to break Russia in Ukraine. Even with less support from the West, both options for Ukraine are much more feasable since they require holding ground and waiting at the very minimum. While for Russia the minimum is extreme attrocities with a lot of uncertain outcomes.