[noemon]

Republicans think they are going to lose the presidential election, and I agree.

There is a wild card, that is women after the Dobbs abortion decision. That has cost Republicans a number of elections, so far, and my thought is that this will continue. But my guess is that Dems keep the White House and the Senate, and Republicans keep the House.

But ya never know, American politics are usually crazy these days.

Still not as crazy as Ukraine fighting Russia in a war with Polish and American aid.

That is the same as Israel fighting a war against the US with unashamedly open Iranian support.

Or Texas fighting a war against the US with Chinese & Russian support.

Or Greek Cyprus fighting a war against Greece with Turkish support.

Hubris has a way of turning into karma and eventually into a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[Rugoz]

No, you think you are smart enough to pretend that Swiss Germans have not simply come to terms against the idea of Greater Germany.

No idea what this nonsense is supposed to mean.

Right, said the guy who is blindly supporting a 19th century ethno-nationalist war project in the making. And who is unashamedly openly arguing that support to the project should be blind.

It is much more than an ethno-nationalist project. The color revolutions weren't ethno-nationalist in nature.

Repuds are clear that once elected they will turn the lights off in Ukraine.

Nonsense. The Repuds control the house, they could defund the war right now if they wanted to.

The vast majority of Europe including France, Germany, Spain and Italy were never for this war and are even less for it now.

Nobody was for this war except Russia. All those countries don't want Russia to win.

Unless Ukraine makes a huge breakthrough, it is doomed and more doomed than you currently imagine because once western money stop flowing, it will not just lose the Russian-inhabited areas, but potentially the entire country.

If Ukraine doesn't make a breakthrough, both sides are basically exhausted and incapable of offensives. It will over time become a low level conflict along the existing front.

Once Repuds switch off the lights, the Ukrainians will remember once again that they have always been Russians.

What a mind-bogglingly stupid claim after everything we've seen.

Russia is in a position to continue this as long as it takes. Russian exports have increased since the war started which further showcases the demotion of the west and China's multipolar world.

Outdated information.

Ukraine needs to start thinking what is in its actual interests and not the interests of others.

Russian occupation certainly isn't. Fighting is the only alternative as things currently stand.

[noemon]

No idea what this nonsense is supposed to mean.

It means that Swiss German gave up on Greater Germany only when they realised the impossibility of the project.

It is much more than an ethno-nationalist project. The color revolutions weren't ethno-nationalist in nature.

The argument that the Ukrainian people are a distinct ethno-national entity from Russians is both ethno-nationalist in nature and ridiculous from a historical point of view.

Nonsense. The Repuds control the house, they could defund the war right now if they wanted to.

Your wishful thinking and ignorance is not an argument.

Nobody was for this war except Russia. All those countries don't want Russia to win.

All those countries were and still are more than happy for Russia to annex whatever it pleases in Ukraine and to provide Russia the security assurances that it has been wanting.

If Ukraine doesn't make a breakthrough, both sides are basically exhausted and incapable of offensives. It will over time become a low level conflict along the existing front.

Except that Russia is a behemoth while Ukraine is a Russian province that is behaving like a western proxy in a very precarious position. Russia can replenish around 100 times faster than Ukraine once the west stops the bank transfers and Russia will never stop until all of Ukraine is back into Russia where it has been for over 300 continuous years.

Russian occupation certainly isn't. Fighting is the only alternative as things currently stand.

Nonsense. This is potentially the only good opportunity Ukraine has to strike a deal with Russia, Ukraine will never find Russia in a worse position than it currently is, if it has not already lost the train. Russia's long term goals are far bigger than Ukraine's. If Ukraine wants to achieve its segregation from Russia, this is potentially the only good opportunity it will ever get.

[Rugoz]

Kahovka Dam update:

1) It seems to have collapsed because it was not maintained or services at all by the Russians who occupy the servicing areas.

2) They have neglected service since they occupied it, they had 1 part open but didn't regulate anything be it water level or maintanence or equipment.

3) As time went on, without maintanence and any usage of water passage, the level of water started to fluctuate and basically the same drain has been open for a year+ now without stop. It had to survive through extreme draught and extreme pressure from water.

4) In June, since the Russians didn't regulate the water level, the pressure on the Dam due to not enough gates being open started to overwhelm the Dam when the lake wasn't been dumped fast enough down stream and reached the highest levels in its history. Along with no maintanence, same gate being open for over a year+ and so on overwhelmed the Dam and it collased.

TLDR: Russians didn't blow up the Dam nor the Ukranians. No maintenance or oversight over their occupied areas caused it so the Russians are fully to blame for this. A war crime is still a war crime.

And what is the source for that?

The dam got destroyed right after the offensive started. Is this supposed to be a coincidence?

[noemon]

Kahovka Dam update:

1) It seems to have collapsed because it was not maintained or services at all by the Russians who occupy the servicing areas.

2) They have neglected service since they occupied it, they had 1 part open but didn't regulate anything be it water level or maintanence or equipment.

3) As time went on, without maintanence and any usage of water passage, the level of water started to fluctuate and basically the same drain has been open for a year+ now without stop. It had to survive through extreme draught and extreme pressure from water.

4) In June, since the Russians didn't regulate the water level, the pressure on the Dam due to not enough gates being open started to overwhelm the Dam when the lake wasn't been dumped fast enough down stream and reached the highest levels in its history. Along with no maintanence, same gate being open for over a year+ and so on overwhelmed the Dam and it collased.

TLDR: Russians didn't blow up the Dam nor the Ukranians. No maintenance or oversight over their occupied areas caused it so the Russians are fully to blame for this. A war crime is still a war crime.

If Russians wanted to flood the area around the dam, they could do so without destroying it by simply turning the taps on. The Russians control the dam anyway.

Same as with NordStream, if they wanted to close supplies they could just close the taps.

It is not convincing at all.

[Rugoz]

It means that Swiss German gave up on Greater Germany only when they realised the impossibility of the project.

Germany didn't even exist throughout most of Swiss history.

You realize the Swiss Germans could easily outvote the French and Italian Swiss and make this happen, right?

Of course in reality nobody dislikes ze Germans more than the Swiss Germans. Much more so in WW2 than today of course, you should have listened to my grandfather.

The argument that the Ukrainian people are a distinct ethno-national entity from Russians is both ethno-nationalist in nature and ridiculous from a historical point of view.

They only have their own freaking language .

So nope, there's an ethno-nationalist justification for Ukraine, even though it's not the one I care about.

Your wishful thinking and ignorance is not an argument.

The house controls the purse, not wishful thinking at all.

All those countries were and still are more than happy for Russia to annex whatever it pleases in Ukraine and to provide Russia the security assurances that it has been wanting.

Sure, the lack of "security assurances" was the reason. You're totally drunk on Russian propaganda.

Nonsense. This is potentially the only good opportunity Ukraine has to strike a deal with Russia

Nonsense. The only acceptable deal would be NATO membership or similar security guarantees for whatever remains of Ukraine, because everything else would invite another invasion once Russia has recovered (the trajectory right now is the opposite, Ukraine is getting stronger and Russia weaker). There's no indication that Russia would accept this, because it wants all of Ukraine.

[JohnRawls]

If Russians wanted to flood the area around the dam, they could do so without destroying it by simply turning the taps on. The Russians control the dam anyway.

Same as with NordStream, if they wanted to close supplies they could just close the taps.

It is not convincing at all.

They didn't maintain the Dam at all. Sattelite imaging shows that for a year now they have not maintained or service or even used anything. Basically:

1) Around May/Aprill 2022 they open the gates and move the maintenance cranes to one spot.

2) Sattelite images through june,july....december 2022 till June 2023 show that the crane have not been moved and exactly the same gates were open all the time.

3) On 2nd of June, parts of the road on top of the gate collapsed. ( Probably vibration along with moisture and erosions doign their job for a year)

4) On 4th of June even bigger piece of road collapsed from above. (Even more so)

5) On 6th of June in the really early morning/night the whole damn things collapsed. First the gates where the water was going and then the 2nd part after couple of hours where the machinery was.

Here are the water levels and subsequently the pressure of that water over the years and during the war. Notice how managed diviations are now basically free for all:

[Szabo]

One thing’s for sure. Everything Russia touches, turns to shit.

[Rugoz]

3) On 2nd of June, parts of the road on top of the gate collapsed. ( Probably vibration along with moisture and erosions doign their job for a year)

4) On 4th of June even bigger piece of road collapsed from above. (Even more so)

Again, the roads were destroyed just before offensive. What a coincidence. They probably fucked up trying to destroy the road.

[noemon]

:lol:

Germany didn't even exist throughout most of Swiss history.

You realize the Swiss Germans could easily outvote the French and Italian Swiss and make this happen, right?

As many will tell you in your face today, neutrality is just support by another name.

They only have their own freaking language .

Except they actually don't. Ukrainian is a Russian dialect closer to Russian that several Jewish or Greek dialects with each other. And more than a language they share a common history and national heroes. They share a common national consciousness.

The house controls the purse, not wishful thinking at all.

Whatever makes you feel better. Reality is that a Republican win in the upcoming elections means the US stops the aid for Ukraine substantially if not entirely.

Sure, the the lack of "security assurances" were the reason.

Is this yet another straw-man?

You're totally drunk of Russian propaganda.

You are projecting again. Unlike you, I am not beholden to anybody and I do not have anything to prove. Your anti-Russian hysteria goes as far as the rope that I personally gave you.

Nonsense. The only acceptable deal would be NATO membership or similar security guarantees for whatever remains of Ukraine, because everything else would invite another invasion once Russia has recovered (the trajectory right now is the opposite, Ukraine is getting stronger and Russia weaker). There's no indication that Russia would accept this, because it wants all of Ukraine.

Your trajectory claim is beyond ridiculous. Ukraine as a country and economy is entirely destroyed and wholly reliant on foreign support. Support from countries who were lukewarm with it to begin with, who never trusted it and who never treated it as an actual country. Despite all the fanfare, it is Russia that holds 20% of Ukraine and Russia that has pushed back Ukrainian offenses.

Still Russia is currently exhausted and hence the opportunity for Ukraine to strike a deal. It will not be so in 2, 3 years time any longer as its finances are even better than they used to be, its infrastructure is intact.

I doubt Russia will ever accept NATO in Ukraine but Ukraine can walk out of this war now with its head up high by formally relinquishing control over the Russian-held territories. That is the best deal it will ever get. Ukraine will never get Crimea back even if it ends up winning the war which is summer night dream anyway.

[JohnRawls]

Again, the roads were destroyed just before offensive. What a coincidence. They probably fucked up trying to destroy the road.

It wasn't shelled for half a year now, at around the same time Russia also blew up a part of it. You do understand that artillery literally does nothing to a DAM since it is made of concrete and steal. You literally would need thousands of hits in relatively same place to do anything to a dam with artillery shells or MLRS systems.

Durring WW2 UK tried Dam busting which they had to invent a new bomb that would hit the Dam head on instead from top since hitting from top is useless. It was a 5 TON barrel jumping bomb. They hit like 10 targets and managed to destroy only 3 even with that preparation against much smaller Dams that were build before WW2 with way inferior construction technology and not all even made fully out of steel and concrete compared to Kahovka.

Now you are telling me that 155mm shells would do anything to it while hitting the road and not the Dam itself top to bottom. Just not possible. Same goes probably for the Russians exploding the road on their retreat.

Unless Russians blew it up using insane amounts of explosives then there is no other explanation for the bomb scenario. It could probably survive direct hits from Tomahawk and Calibre since the payload is not enough. It is like hitting a very heavily reinforced bunker designed to survive up to a tactical nuclear explosion head on and expect that some shelling or small explosions would do anything to it. Unless specially designed missiles were fired at it then nothing besides massive amount of static explosives could have done it. And only the Russians had access to do the later. Specialised missiles probably are non-existent or exist in very limited qualities for the Russians and Americans but not Ukranians.

[Rugoz]

As many will tell you in your face today, neutrality is just support by another name.

Unification with Germany is a totally non-existent issue. Nobody, and I mean NOBODY, across the political spectrum, even hints at this.

Except they actually don't. Ukrainian is a Russian dialect closer to Russian that several Jewish or Greek dialects with each other. And more than a language they share a common history and national heroes. They share a common national consciousness.

I suggest a course in Ukrainian history, e.g. the one Rancid posted. If you want an ethno-nationalist justification, there's plenty to go for. There's a reason litwin calls Russians Muscovites. He probably wants Kiev to control Moscow and not vice-ersa . I don't really care.

Whatever makes you feel better. Reality is that a Republican win in the upcoming elections means the US stops the aid for Ukraine substantially if not entirely.

The US spent more on the war in Afghanistan per year than on Ukraine. For 2 decades. No Americans are dying in Ukraine.

Campaign claptrap by some Republicans (everything Biden does is BAD) that will quickly be forgotten if they are in power. They talked for years about repealing Obama-care, a much more prominent subject, and nothing happened.

Again, they could already do it if they were united behind it.

I guess there's a small chance if Trump wins.

I'm more sceptical about long-term (Western) European support.

Your trajectory claim is beyond ridiculous. Ukraine as a country and economy is entirely destroyed and wholly reliant on foreign support. Support from countries who were lukewarm with it to begin with, who never trusted it and who never treated it as an actual country. Despite all the fanfare, it is Russia that holds 20% of Ukraine and Russia that has pushed back Ukrainian offenses.

Ukraine made all the significant gains in the past half+ year. Russia was forced to mobilize. It is now forced to use older and older equipment. Russian industry cannot sustain this war, only old Soviet equipment can, for the moment. If the West keeps up the support, the current trajectory will continue, until Ukraine wins.

I doubt Russia will ever accept NATO in Ukraine but Ukraine can walk out of this war now with its head up high by formally relinquishing control over the Russian-held territories.

Utterly ridiculous. A short period of peace for a worse war later. Ukraine has nothing to gain from this.

[Rugoz]

Unless Russians blew it up using insane amounts of explosives then there is no other explanation for the bomb scenario.

Yes obviously they would have used explosives, as with the other bridges. They control the dam.

[Szabo]

If anyone thinks that Ukrainian and Russian are mutually intelligible dialects of each other, just watch Russian POWs reacting to when they are being questioned in Ukrainian. Even to the simplest questions such as “what’s your name?” or “where are you from?”, they react with dumbfounded confused mugs.

Better yet, learn Russian and then try speaking to Ukrainian and see what happens.

@noemon

What happened to you man? Our ass used to be beautiful.

On a sidenote, here’s my favorite russian anti-putin blogger. Use automated English subtitles if you guys want to laugh, a lot.

[noemon]

Unification with Germany is a totally non-existent issue. Nobody, and I mean NOBODY, across the political spectrum, even hints at this.

Nobody and I mean nobody expected Switzerland to go to war with Germany and she never did, despite getting occupied by Germany. Yet you do have the expectation for Ukraine to go to war with Russia even though Ukrainians and Russians are even closer than Swiss Germans and Germans.

How do you square this circle?

I suggest a course in Ukrainian history, e.g. the one Rancid posted. If you want an ethno-nationalist justification, there's plenty to go for. There's a reason litwin calls Russians Muscovites. He probably wants Kiev to control Moscow and not vice-ersa . I don't really care.

Is Polish-Lithuanian nationalism, the arch-enemy of the Ukrainian people in their national consciousness somewhat relevant here?

The US spent more on the war in Afghanistan per year than on Ukraine. For 2 decades. No Americans are dying in Ukraine.

Campaign claptrap by some Republicans (everything Biden does is BAD) that will quickly be forgotten if they are in power. They talked for years about repealing Obama-care, a much more prominent subject, and nothing happened.

As I said your wishful thinking is not really relevant here.

Ukraine made all the significant gains in the past half+ year. Russia was forced to mobilize. It is now forced to use older and older equipment. Russian industry cannot sustain this war, only old Soviet equipment can, for the moment. If the West keeps up the support, the current trajectory will continue, until Ukraine wins.

You are well steeped into propaganda. Let's make it clear for you. Russia at its lowest currently occupies over 20% of Ukraine. All of Ukranian strategic objectives to dislodge Russia have failed. The entire country is destroyed while Russia is untouched and that even in the lowest point Russia has ever been. Foreign support for Ukraine has always been lukewarm and becoming even colder as time goes by.

Utterly ridiculous. A short period of peace for a worse war later. Ukraine has nothing to gain from this.

It has a lot of lives to gain from this while with continuing the war it has absolutely nothing to gain. It will never make more than what it already has, it will simply lose more people & more territory which is utterly ridiculous indeed.

If anyone thinks that Ukrainian and Russian are mutually intelligible dialects of each other, just watch Russian POWs reacting to when they are being questioned in Ukrainian. Even to the simplest questions such as “what’s your name?” or “where are you from?”, they react with dumbfounded confused mugs.

Dude, while this nonsense is cute, we both know that it is not true at all. Ukranians and Russians are indistinguishable and are totally intelligible when communicating with each other, more than the language, the entire national consciousness is identical.

I support Ukraine with deeds and words and because I support you, I am advising you to end this now you have somewhat of a middle hand. You will never find Russia in a worse position to negotiate, you will never find the west more unified on this and after September western support is going to fizzle out if a huge breakthrough has not materialised.

You know as well as I, that Ukraine defeating Russia and forcing it to accept surrender is never going to happen, you also know as well as I, that Putin is also totally irrelevant to all this. It makes no difference if its Putin or somebody else.

So, instead of talking about taking back Crimea, get back to Planet Earth before they turn you into another Palestine.

[late]

Still not as crazy as Ukraine fighting Russia in a war with Polish and American aid.

That is the same as Israel fighting a war against the US with unashamedly open Iranian support.

Or Texas fighting a war against the US with Chinese & Russian support.

Or Greek Cyprus fighting a war against Greece with Turkish support.

Hubris has a way of turning into karma and eventually into a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Since this began, I've been asking if this is more like the runup to WW1 or WW2.

If it's like WW2, and I think it is, the crazy choice is to let the dictator attack country after country.

If it's more like WW1, then you need to stay flexible. You win by not fighting..

Russia has a history of conquest. They want to control the choke points through which an invading army would go. Problem is, a lot of those places are part of NATO now. When Putin lunged for Kyiv, a lot of people saw this as Putin trying to rebuild the USSR.

Letting him conquer Ukraine meant an eventual attack on NATO.

From my POV, his military, and his economy, are already damaged enough to curtail his ambitions. So if, for some reason, Western support collapses, it's still a fait accompli...

But, this has been one of the most remarkable years of my life. Pretty much everyone expected Putin to roll over Ukraine like a tank rolling over grandma. That didn't happen, and respect doesn't begin to describe how I feel for their determination.

It was barely a country with a threadbare military a few years ago. Look at it now, I say give the fuckers a fighting chance, they've earned it.

[noemon]

Russia has been running Kiyv long before the USSR existed.

Look at what now? You are confusing fanfare with actual reality like so many others in here. Ukraine is a destroyed country under occupation and for what exactly? What has it achieved? It has lost more territory than Russia occupied in 2014 and you still miss the point. Russia will always have a foothold in Ukraine because Ukraine has been a Russian province since its very inception. Russia will always find collaborators in Ukraine because Ukraine is just the Russian Texas, literally. Why do you think nobody in the west ever accepted Ukraine in any organisation? Because even now most western people consider them Russian trojan horses and that is because a lot of them actually are like Yanukovych and all those that elected him.

You don't seem able to grasp this. Ukrainians have historically been identifying as Russians depending on who they speak to and the circumstances.

[Rugoz]

Nobody and I mean nobody expected Switzerland to go to war with Germany and she never did, despite getting occupied. Yet you do have the expectation for Ukraine to go to war with Russia even though Ukrainians and Russians are even closer than Swiss Germans and Germans.

How do you square this circle?

"Getting occupied"? What the hell are you talking about. Germany never occupied Switzerland.

The Swiss fought other German-speakers obviously, from the territory that today is Germany.

You are well steeped into propaganda. Let's make it clear for you. Russia at its lowest currently occupies over 20% of Ukraine. All of Ukranian strategic objectives to dislodge Russia have failed. The entire country is destroyed while Russia is untouched and that even in the lowest point Russia has ever been. Foreign support for Ukraine has always been lukewarm and becoming even colder as time goes by.

Russia at its lowest indeed. Watch those Soviet stockpiles getting lower.

Dude, while this nonsense is cute, we both know that it is not true at all. Ukranians and Russians are indistinguishable and are totally intelligible when communicating with each other, more than the language, the entire national consciousness is identical.

Dude, is anyone supposed to believe you over Szabo on this? You totally lost the plot.

[noemon]

Dude, is anyone supposed to believe you over Szabo on this? You totally lost the plot.

I have no reason to lie while he has plenty. And besides reality still is so regardless whom you believe. Russians have more difficulty understanding western Polish Ukranian than Ukranians have difficulty understanding Russian(which they all do). Just like Londoners have more difficulty understanding Scottish than the Scots have difficulty understanding London's English.

In Switzerland you have both Ukranians and Russias, largely in the same communities and unable to distinguish them.

I know several of them here and they are one and the same thing. They even tell you this themselves.

"Getting occupied"? What the hell are you talking about. Germany never occupied Switzerland.

The Swiss fought other German-speakers obviously, from the territory that today is Germany.

I thought Hitler briefly occupied Switzerland but since Switzerland already did his bidding, he skipped it.

You are still evading the point of the question. Would the Swiss have fought back Hitler? Doubtful.

[Szabo]

Ukrainians and Russians are indistinguishable and are totally intelligible when communicating with each other, more than the language, the entire national consciousness is identical.

It's because we're not the same that there is a war in the first place.

I support Ukraine with deeds and words and because I support you, I am advising you to end this now you have somewhat of a middle hand. You will never find Russia in a worse position to negotiate, you will never find the west more unified on this and after September western support is going to fizzle out if a huge breakthrough has not materialised.

I can appreciate that. Truly I can. Nobody here on this site wants the war to end more than I do. The reason I haven't been posting recently is because I've been shell shocked and feel like I have no fight left in me whatsoever. But we need one more push. Come September, if we haven't broken the land bridge to Crimea, or taken back Luhansk Oblast, or conquered Belgorod, then even I will admit that it's time to negotiate a permanent cease-fire. But we need to try just one more push, because if we succeed, it will be decisive at the very least at the negotiating table.