- 13 May 2022 22:27
#15227270
Danish TV2News Wrote:
Quote:
"Phase three of the war has begun - and it's with Ukraine on the offensive
ANALYSIS: The war is at a very crucial stage. [...]
As readers of these analyses will be aware, the war in Ukraine has so far proceeded in two phases.
The first phase was the Russian attempt to conquer all of Ukraine, capture Kyiv and depose the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky. That phase ended with the stinging Russian defeats around Kyiv and in the strategically important towns of Chernihiv and Sumy in early April.
Phase two, which I called Plan B in last week's analysis, was the Russian attempt to "liberate" the entire Donbas, hold on to the conquests in southern Ukraine between Mariupol and Kherson, and probably gradually strangle Ukraine as a viable state over a number of years.
That phase has almost lasted four weeks, and it has not come close to delivering on the Russian objectives either. Nor will it.
The war is now in a smooth transition to phase three. What is new about phase three is that it will no longer be Russia that defines the objectives. In phase three, Ukraine will have the initiative.
Phase three will define Russian defeat. If Russia is going to make a Plan C, it will be on how Russia can minimize defeat and humiliation
Take note of Kharkiv
Phase three actually began just under two weeks ago, when Ukrainian forces began their counter-attack on the Russians around Kharkiv, the country's second largest city with about 1.5 million inhabitants. Kharkiv is located just 40 kilometres south of the border with Russia, and Russian forces have been trying to capture it since the early days of the war.
As we know, they have not succeeded. Now the Russian units have collapsed and are being chased back to Russia. In several places, the Ukrainians have reached the Russian border
In addition to the offensive to the north, Ukrainian forces have attacked to the east. Here they have reached the important railway line which, from the Russian garrison town of Belgorod, is the main supply line to the front in the northern Donbas near the town of Izium. If the Ukrainians have not already destroyed the railway, they will soon.
This will seriously deteriorate the supply situation for Russian forces in the northern Donbas between Izium and Severodonetsk. Russia can continue to divert the supply line to the railway further east. However, it will be a major detour from Belgorod.
At the same time, the Ukrainians are likely to try to push the front further east so that they can hit the very hub of the railway network at the town of Kupyansk north of Izium. If that happens, Russia will no longer be able to supply the forces in the northern Donbas via the rail network.
The Russian response to the Ukrainian threat to the supply lines came at the beginning of this week. Russia withdrew forces north from Izium to Kupyansk. This eases pressure from Russia at Izium. In recent days, the fronts in that area have been quiet.
Continued fierce fighting further east
Despite Ukraine's counter-attack and what I am already taking the liberty of calling phase three, Russian forces seem to be continuing in phase two in some places. This is particularly true near one of the largest cities in the Ukrainian part of the Donbas, Severodonetsk.
Here, the Russians have apparently succeeded in capturing the large suburb of Rubizne, which has been fought over for several weeks.
Russian forces are now at Severodonetsk, where we are likely to see heavy fighting. It is the last town controlled by Ukraine in the northern Donbas east of the Donets River.
The Donets River in particular has in many other places drawn Ukraine to the west. They have done so to use it as a defensive line. In doing so, they have inflicted significant losses on the Russians as they try to cross the river, including over 30 T72 tanks and armoured vehicles in an attack on Wednesday.
It is clear, therefore, that Russia has not yet given up on its land grab. We are likely to continue to see heavy fighting in some places for another week or two. After that, Russia is unlikely to have the fighting strength to continue attacks.
Their losses of troops and materiel are so extensive, and their ability to resupply and reinforce is so limited, that we will see units breaking up.
Putin has not yet read the writing on the wall
Putin's very subdued - almost boastful - speech on 9 May suggests that at least some realities are dawning on him. That is why he chose not to expand the war in Ukraine. It is doubtful, however, that Putin has realised that there is also a mismatch between Plan B and Russia's military capabilities.
The May 9 speech revolved around Donbas, and the continuing attacks in the region suggest that Putin has not yet read the writing on the wall.
The irony is that the longer it takes for Putin and the General Staff to realise that this is an unrealistic project, the better chance the Ukrainians will have in phase three. If Russia continues in phase two instead of making a plan C - a plan for defeat - the risk of a bully pulpit grows as Ukraine expands their offensive.
A further sign of Putin's continuing failure to recognise reality came this week when US National Intelligence Director Avril Haines outlined in the Senate that Putin is seeking a years-long war. The warning from Haines is based on intelligence about Putin's intentions. Haines did not talk about capabilities, and it is here that we find the great mismatch."
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