Moscow Has Lost war in Ukraine - The View from China - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15229040
Excellent article from a former Chinese ambassador.


I. Moscow ’s position in the Moscow-Ukraine war has became increasingly passive and unfavorable. Its coming defeat is already clear.



The main reasons why Moscow is now heading towards defeat are:




Moscow has been declining ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union, a decline that is first of all a continuation of the pre-dissolution Soviet Union. It is also related to the failures of the internal and external policies of the Moscow ruling clique. This process has been exacerbated by Western economic sanctions which have damaged sectors of the Moscow economy. The so-called revival or revitalization of Moscow under Putin’s leadership is false; it simply does not exist. Russia’s decline is evident in its economic, military, technological, political, and social spheres, and has had a serious negative impact on the Moscow military and its war effort.
The failure of the Moscow blitzkrieg and the failure to achieve a quick victory signaled the beginning of the Moscow defeat. The Moscow military’s economic and financial strength, which are not commensurate with its status as a so-called military superpower, could not support a high-tech war costing hundreds of millions of dollars a day. The Moscow army’s poverty-driven defeat was evident everywhere on the battlefield. Every day that the war is delayed is a heavy burden for Moscow.
Moscow military and economic advantages over Ukraine have been offset by the resilience of Ukraine and the huge, sustained and effective aid provided to Ukraine. The generational differences between Moscow and the U.S. and other NATO countries in the areas of weapons and technology, military concepts, and modes of warfare make the advantages and disadvantages of both sides even more pronounced.
Modern wars are necessarily hybrid wars, covering military, economic, political, diplomatic, public opinion, propaganda, intelligence, and information. Moscow is not only in a passive position on the battlefield, but has lost in other areas. This means that it is only a matter of time before Moscow is finally. It is only a matter of time before Moscow is finally defeated.
Moscow can no longer decide when and how the war will end. Moscow is trying to end the war as soon as possible so it can hold on to what it has gained. This has failed. In this sense, Moscow has lost its strategic leadership and initiative.

https://gaodawei.wordpress.com/2022/05/ ... relations/

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#15229043
litwin wrote:Excellent article from a former Chinese ambassador.


I. Moscow ’s position in the Moscow-Ukraine war has became increasingly passive and unfavorable. Its coming defeat is already clear.



The main reasons why Moscow is now heading towards defeat are:




Moscow has been declining ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union, a decline that is first of all a continuation of the pre-dissolution Soviet Union. It is also related to the failures of the internal and external policies of the Moscow ruling clique. This process has been exacerbated by Western economic sanctions which have damaged sectors of the Moscow economy. The so-called revival or revitalization of Moscow under Putin’s leadership is false; it simply does not exist. Russia’s decline is evident in its economic, military, technological, political, and social spheres, and has had a serious negative impact on the Moscow military and its war effort.
The failure of the Moscow blitzkrieg and the failure to achieve a quick victory signaled the beginning of the Moscow defeat. The Moscow military’s economic and financial strength, which are not commensurate with its status as a so-called military superpower, could not support a high-tech war costing hundreds of millions of dollars a day. The Moscow army’s poverty-driven defeat was evident everywhere on the battlefield. Every day that the war is delayed is a heavy burden for Moscow.
Moscow military and economic advantages over Ukraine have been offset by the resilience of Ukraine and the huge, sustained and effective aid provided to Ukraine. The generational differences between Moscow and the U.S. and other NATO countries in the areas of weapons and technology, military concepts, and modes of warfare make the advantages and disadvantages of both sides even more pronounced.
Modern wars are necessarily hybrid wars, covering military, economic, political, diplomatic, public opinion, propaganda, intelligence, and information. Moscow is not only in a passive position on the battlefield, but has lost in other areas. This means that it is only a matter of time before Moscow is finally. It is only a matter of time before Moscow is finally defeated.
Moscow can no longer decide when and how the war will end. Moscow is trying to end the war as soon as possible so it can hold on to what it has gained. This has failed. In this sense, Moscow has lost its strategic leadership and initiative.

https://gaodawei.wordpress.com/2022/05/ ... relations/

Image


I know that it is a sort of a wet dream of a lot of anti-totalitarianism people or pro Belarus/Ukraine independence from Russia crowd but realistically the division of Russia is not going to happen by force of arms from outside intervention. The only reason Russia can fracture if Russia itself collapses which is not very likely. At least not very likely to the same degree as you portray.

This doesn't mean though that Belarus and Ukraine will not win. Ukraine will win definately and Belarus will eventually be free from the roach. The question of Russia is a bit more complicated.
#15229044
@JohnRawls

What @litwin doesn't see is that China is taking an essentially pro-Russia stance by silencing the ambassador in concern. His "wet dream" involves China participating in the partition but the reality (or at least my wet dream) is that China needs to be partitioned as much as Russia if not more.
#15229063
JohnRawls wrote:I know that it is a sort of a wet dream of a lot of anti-totalitarianism people or pro Belarus/Ukraine independence from Russia crowd but realistically the division of Russia is not going to happen by force of arms from outside intervention. The only reason Russia can fracture if Russia itself collapses which is not very likely. At least not very likely to the same degree as you portray.

This doesn't mean though that Belarus and Ukraine will not win. Ukraine will win definately and Belarus will eventually be free from the roach. The question of Russia is a bit more complicated.


from outside intervention. The only reason Russia can fracture if Russia itself collapses which is not very likely.

it can go both way, Muscovy is deadly injured , so its just matter of time, when it dies




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#15229069
Patrickov wrote:@JohnRawls

What @litwin doesn't see is that China is taking an essentially pro-Russia stance by silencing the ambassador in concern. His "wet dream" involves China participating in the partition but the reality (or at least my wet dream) is that China needs to be partitioned as much as Russia if not more.


the hans - china is a paper tiger as well, as more its take from Moscow as sooner it dies


#15229071
Agree that China is probably a paper dragon as well.

A country's military is a direct reflection of its system of government and culture. CCP (and Chinese culture in general) is always far more obsessed with appearances than substance (this is why saving face is more important than anything else, I'm married to a freedom loving Hong Kong family.. they're still Chinese though LOL). The CCP has put a lot of energy in making their military look scary, much like Russia did. Again, appearances is where they focus their energy. They have an inferiority complex. This is why they do all those dumb shit military parades, and talk a lot of shit constantly. Couple that with the top down nature of the CCP (and Chinese culture in general), and they likely do not have an agile quick decision making military. Would likely be easy to confuse them in an area of operation.

At this point, it's very clear that China is a paper dragon, and the US should be more open and direct in saying it is committed to defending Taiwan. Japan, Australia should say the same. It's time to draw the line now. Fuck CCP, fuck Xi.

That said, were war to break out, it would certainly be at great cost to all sides involved. What must be done, must be done though. These hacks like Xi that are stuck in the 19th century and seem themselves as "men of history" need to have their teeth kicked in. That's the only language they understand.

It's good to see more companies waking up and at least diversifying their supply chains away from China. Even Apple is now looking for other areas to manufacture in.
#15229074
JohnRawls wrote:
I know that it is a sort of a wet dream of a lot of anti-totalitarianism people or pro Belarus/Ukraine independence from Russia crowd but realistically the division of Russia is not going to happen by force of arms from outside intervention. The only reason Russia can fracture if Russia itself collapses which is not very likely. At least not very likely to the same degree as you portray.

This doesn't mean though that Belarus and Ukraine will not win. Ukraine will win definately and Belarus will eventually be free from the roach. The question of Russia is a bit more complicated.


Agree, and there is no way Kileningrad goes back to Germany. Germany doesn't want it.
#15229088
Rancid wrote:Agree, and there is no way Kileningrad goes back to Germany. Germany doesn't want it.


Belarus will take it, Finland takes Karelia, Japan all kuril islands , USA Komchatka etc.
#15229134
Awesome! Good on Denmark. Anything to open the Black Sea blockade and also prevent another front via Moldova. The countries that announced new packages included Italy, Denmark, Greece, Norway and Poland, Austin told reporters following a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group. Denmark would provide a harpoon launcher and missiles to defend Ukraine's coast, Austin said.


Denmark is providing Ukraine with a Harpoon launcher and missiles to defend its coasts amid Russia's special military operation, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said on Monday.


https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/in ... to-ukraine
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#15229148
At this point, it's very clear that China is a paper dragon, and the US should be more open and direct in saying it is committed to defending Taiwan. Japan, Australia should say the same.


Joe Biden said he would be willing to use force to defend Taiwan against Chinese aggression, stretching the limits of the ambiguous U.S. policy towards the self-ruled island. It is feared that the war in Ukraine opened the door to Chinese aggression in East Asia. A White House official later said there was no change in policy toward Taiwan but this is his second remark on defending Taiwan militarily, which could be his firm belief.



A reporter asked Biden if the United States would defend Taiwan if it were attacked. "Yes," the president answered.

"That's the commitment we made," said Biden, who helped build an international coalition trying to thwart Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

"We agree with a one-China policy. We've signed on to it and all the intended agreements made from there. But the idea that, that it (Taiwan) can be taken by force, just taken by force, is just not, is just not appropriate," he said.
#15229187
ThirdTerm wrote:Joe Biden said he would be willing to use force to defend Taiwan against Chinese aggression, stretching the limits of the ambiguous U.S. policy towards the self-ruled island. It is feared that the war in Ukraine opened the door to Chinese aggression in East Asia. A White House official later said there was no change in policy toward Taiwan but this is his second remark on defending Taiwan militarily, which could be his firm belief.


Right, and I'm saying it's time to make it clear we will defend Taiwan.
#15229192
I'm going to say the same thing about Taiwan as I did about Ukraine - there is no invasion coming (watch me eat those words later...).

There are major differences though. Russia is a descending power while China is ascending. Time is simply more on their side as things stand today. Which brings us to more on that same subject: China is the oldest cultural-political concept today with over 3000 years of continuous history. Time is measured differently when thinking in those terms and a century is not that big of a deal. If China were to become politically destabilized or face massive internal turmoil, there would be scenarios of extreme measures that could be taken.

I believe that China is calculating that eventually Taiwan will want to rejoin the motherland and that it is easier if they do it of their own free will (more or less...). 'All good things come to those who wait' is something that Putin should have listened to, instead of the sycophants inside the FSB.
#15229231
MadMonk wrote:I'm going to say the same thing about Taiwan as I did about Ukraine - there is no invasion coming (watch me eat those words later...).

There are major differences though. Russia is a descending power while China is ascending. Time is simply more on their side as things stand today. Which brings us to more on that same subject: China is the oldest cultural-political concept today with over 3000 years of continuous history. Time is measured differently when thinking in those terms and a century is not that big of a deal. If China were to become politically destabilized or face massive internal turmoil, there would be scenarios of extreme measures that could be taken.

I believe that China is calculating that eventually Taiwan will want to rejoin the motherland and that it is easier if they do it of their own free will (more or less...). 'All good things come to those who wait' is something that Putin should have listened to, instead of the sycophants inside the FSB.


"China is the oldest cultural-political concept today with over 3000 years of continuous history."

dont read the han- propaganda too much, the han- china is only 100 year-old
#15229233
Rancid wrote:
Right, and I'm saying it's time to make it clear we will defend Taiwan.



Our relationship with China is complicated.

What Biden was telling China was that we would do to them what we did to Russia. China would be utterly devastated by that level of sanctions.

China got the message.
#15229239
Igor Antunov wrote:
China crushed US in the 2016- sanctions war. Entire west would absolutely be finished if it tried to pester china, considering western sanctions are impotent and backfiring against russia in the same realm.



China has a short range navy. If we blockade China from a distance, China is done for. They import most of their food and energy. The economy would stop dead, and people would be starving in a few months.

If you understood the economic challenges currently facing China, you'd know they are almost as terrified of sanctions (the way we did with Russia).

But don't stop, I like fiction!
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