[JohnRawls]

Bloomberg reporting 37 million infenctions per day right now in China, wtf that can't be real and 248 million contracted it since the policy has been lifted. If true then what the fuck, did Chinese vaccine not work at all or something.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ify%20wall

This does not bode well for the world, with such high infection rates we will have a Covid outburst against worldwide. It might mutate again, what the hell have they been doing for the last 2 years.

[Fasces]

It's not the vaccine doesn't work. Every major comparative study agrees with the general findings of "Sinovac and other inactivated virus vaccines are less effective (50-60%) at preventing transmission but 85%+ effective at preventing hospitalization."

Whether it was done in Turkey, in Chile, in Brazil, in Singapore, in Philippines, etc. all major studies agree with this. Latin America and Southeast Asia tended to be where these comparative tests were done by the WHO because they're the places in the world that received large numbers of both Chinese and Western vaccines to distribute to its people, allowing for controls for geography, lifestyle habits, access to / quality of healthcare, etc.

This is why the WHO recommends its distribution and use worldwide, especially in environments with low healthcare capital because of the expense of storing the mRNA vaccines.

Everyone I know that has caught covid (about 85% of my coworker, student, and friend group) has gotten over it in a couple of days. This seems to be the general trend, overall.

[wat0n]

Bloomberg reporting 37 million infenctions per day right now in China, wtf that can't be real and 248 million contracted it since the policy has been lifted. If true then what the fuck, did Chinese vaccine not work at all or something.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ify%20wall

This does not bode well for the world, with such high infection rates we will have a Covid outburst against worldwide. It might mutate again, what the hell have they been doing for the last 2 years.

I would not be surprised if the Chinese government was "admitting" past infections.

[Fasces]

I would not be surprised if the Chinese government was "admitting" past infections.

I would. It is absolutely a night and day difference - went from knowing nobody personally in China that had had Covid... ever... to 100+ people in my extended social circle catching it over the past two weeks, counting students, coworkers, friends, etc. We even had to close our campus early by three days for Christmas holiday because we simply did not have the student body or teacher population healthy enough to justify opening it. This has never happened before. Like I said, since last entering China in January 2020, I knew zero people personally that had covid in China. Since December 10th or so, basically everyone I know has caught it.

Somehow I have dodged it, despite being in a batch with several positive results for the first time ever. (They swab 20 people at once, and test them using a single test, then if there is a positive in a batch they'll test all 20 individually, as a cost-saving efficiency thing).

[wat0n]

I would. It is absolutely a night and day difference - went from knowing nobody personally in China that had had Covid... ever... to 100+ people in my extended social circle catching it over the past two weeks, counting students, coworkers, friends, etc. We even had to close our campus early by three days for Christmas holiday because we simply did not have the student body or teacher population healthy enough to justify opening it. This has never happened before. Like I said, since last entering China in January 2020, I knew zero people personally that had covid in China. Since December 10th or so, basically everyone I know has caught it.

Somehow I have dodged it, despite being in a batch with several positive results for the first time ever. (They swab 20 people at once, and test them using a single test, then if there is a positive in a batch they'll test all 20 individually, as a cost-saving efficiency thing).

And yet it is entirely possible. 37 million daily infections is a lot higher than the peak daily infections in the US, after adjusting for population. I'd need to check if it is also higher than the peak for NYC daily infections after doing the same (NYC has a population density like Wuhan).

[Fasces]

It is possible, but Omicron and Delta had a much higher infection rate than the first variants of Covid and China has no natural immunity and a vaccine designed to prevent serious illness rather than prevent illness. I don't think the situation is comparable. You'd be better off looking at what happened when Taiwan or Hong Kong opened up earlier this year and Omicron ran through them.

[wat0n]

Fair point, but even then I'm getting ~5,600/million in Taiwan for the day with the greatest number of reported COVID cases there vs ~26,200/million in China for a day with 37 million cases after doing a quick search. For HK, the figure would be ~10,400/million.

[AFAIK]

How up to date are people's vaccines in China? In Cambodia you can get a booster every 3 months (I get one every 6 months).

China has eased restrictions in winter whereas other countries made a point of increasing restrictions in winter and relaxing them in spring and summer so that will make the wave bigger.

[Fasces]

For 1st shot (basically same as unvaxxed) its ~92%.

For two shots (effective at preventing serious illness) its ~90%.

For three shots (effective at preventing transmission) its around 84%.

For people over 65, general rates of two shots or more is around 60-80% (I've seen a wide range of estimates), which is the serious issue for China in this wave. They weren't able to get the geriatrics to vaccinate.

[AFAIK]

I mean how recently did they receive their dose. It wears off over time and the harsh lockdowns means people haven't been exposed to the 'wild' version of covid and haven't developed hybrid immunity.

[Unthinking Majority]

Crowds in China are wild. Covid will spread there. I've heard Chinese people migrate to New York City and complain there's not enough people there.

[Unthinking Majority]

Bloomberg reporting 37 million infenctions per day right now in China, wtf that can't be real and 248 million contracted it since the policy has been lifted. If true then what the fuck, did Chinese vaccine not work at all or something.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ify%20wall

This does not bode well for the world, with such high infection rates we will have a Covid outburst against worldwide. It might mutate again, what the hell have they been doing for the last 2 years.

Vaccine doesn't get rid of infections, it can reduce spread but I think it mostly just makes symptoms lesser and makes time you can spread it shorter if you're less sick

[Unthinking Majority]

Where I live I'd say 80% of people don't wear masks inside public places like stores. Still lots of covid and other viruses like flu going around.

[MadMonk]

According to government figures (WION), booster shots for 80+ year olds stand at 42%. That is a disaster and highlights the dependency and sole focus of the zero-Covid policy. There was obviously no preparation for abandoning this policy but a panicked reaction was made at the last second. China's doctors, nurses and elderly will pay the price of this decision. They should have been better prepared and, if not, delayed reopening until they were.

China battles surge in Covid cases, medics blame government for 'insufficient planning' | WION

[Fasces]

The Chinese government has tried to get the elderly to vaccinate - many cities offered 1000 RMB (and more) to people receiving their third shot, free eggs, groceries and other items. The elderly simply do not want too.

It is easy to criticize, but what's the alternative? Are we advocating for the Chinese government holding down and forcibly vaccinating this group?

[MadMonk]

The Chinese government has tried to get the elderly to vaccinate - many cities offered 1000 RMB (and more) to people receiving their third shot, free eggs, groceries and other items. The elderly simply do not want too.

It is easy to criticize, but what's the alternative? Are we advocating for the Chinese government holding down and forcibly vaccinating this group?

I've an idea. That 4-6 weeks ago Xi Jinping and senior CCP members should have held a speech that could have gone something like this.

"Courtneymen! You are great patriotic members of a society which has done what everyone else claimed was impossible. Because of your sacrifices, millions of Chinese citizens are alive today instead of dying, alone and in fear, gasping their very last breaths. We hear your pain and I stand before you today to tell you that your lives will soon return to normal. We have endured and now we must prepare for the consequences of softening the restrictions. Our medical services will have everything they need, all the medicine and personnel at their disposal. This will take some time, and restrictions will be gradually lifted over the next 8 to 12 weeks. Your duty will be to maintain common sense social interactions and update regular vaccine boosters. Let's together show the world why the Chinese way is the superior society for the 21st century and beyond!"

Not exactly in those words, but in that spirit . With the knowledge that the virus will definitely return in a short time-frame, the booster shots are a much easier sell.

[Fasces]

It's kind of stereotypical to assume that all Chinese are uber nationalists waiting to follow the party line. That sort of rhetoric was tried and it failed.

The reversal should not have been without announcement though, for sure. I worry Keqiang's office, seeing the writing on the wall with the new incoming Premier, felt forced to just push an end to covid before Xi consolidated power and that announcing the end of restrictions would have given Xi time to walk it back. A sort of Berlin Wall is coming down scenario. These are the inherent dangers of concentrating powers in an individual.

[JohnRawls]

It's kind of stereotypical to assume that all Chinese are uber nationalists waiting to follow the party line. That sort of rhetoric was tried and it failed.

The reversal should not have been without announcement though, for sure. I worry Keqiang's office, seeing the writing on the wall with the new incoming Premier, felt forced to just push an end to covid before Xi consolidated power and that announcing the end of restrictions would have given Xi time to walk it back. A sort of Berlin Wall is coming down scenario. These are the inherent dangers of concentrating powers in an individual.

There are certainly problems without checks and balances. Putin on February 24th is a prime example not even from a year ago.

[Fasces]

China has checks and balances within its system.

It's circumvented by letting one man hold multiple job titles.

[Potemkin]

China has checks and balances within its system.

It's circumvented by letting one man hold multiple job titles.

Rather as Octavian did for the Roman Republic, Xi has ‘restored’ the Chinese Republic.