[skinster]

Israel is lashing out like a demented child, it seems to try to drag the U.S. into its savage war. This is a huge escalation that can escalate regional war..

I am listening to the UNSC meeting on it right now. You can, here.

Israel strikes Iran consulate in Syria’s capital Damascus
Iran has promised a response after an alleged Israeli attack on its consulate killed seven including two top commanders.

Iran has promised a response after its consulate in the Syrian capital Damascus was destroyed in a suspected Israeli missile attack, killing seven people including a top commander and his deputy.

Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander in the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and his deputy General Mohammad Hadi Hajriahimi were killed in Monday’s attack, the IRGC said in a statement.

Israel has long targeted Iran’s military installations in Syria and those of its proxies but Monday’s attack was the first time it had targeted the embassy compound itself.

Here’s what we know:

What happened?
The consulate, which is next to the main embassy building in Damascus’s Mezzeh district, was struck at about 5pm (14:00 GMT) on Monday.

Photos from the scene showed piles of rubble and twisted steel with an Iranian flag still hanging from a pole nearby.

Who was there?
Several IRGC military advisers were in the building at the time of the attack and seven were killed, according to the IRGC statement.

The statement said Zahedi and Hajriahimi were among the dead.

Zahedi was the leader of the Quds Force in Lebanon and Syria until 2016, it said.

The United Kingdom-based war monitor, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, said as many as 11 people had been killed, including eight Iranians, two Syrians and one Lebanese, all of them fighters.

How has Iran reacted?
Iran’s Ambassador to Syria, Hossein Akbari, who was not injured in the attack, said Tehran’s response would be “decisive”.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian described the attack “as a violation of all international obligations and conventions” and blamed Israel.

In a separate statement, Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani said that Iran “reserves the right to carry out a reaction and will decide on the type of response and the punishment of the aggressor”.

Iran’s mission to the United Nations said the strike was a “flagrant violation of the United Nations Charter, international law, and the foundational principle of the inviolability of diplomatic and consular premises”.

Saying the strike was “a significant threat to regional peace and security”, the Iranian mission urged the UN Security Council to condemn the attack and said Tehran reserved the right “to take a decisive response”.

Protesters took to the streets of Tehran to condemn Israel over the attack.

How have others reacted?
Syria said “innocents” had been killed in the strike.

“We strongly condemn this atrocious terrorist attack that targeted the Iranian consulate building in Damascus and killed a number of innocents,” said Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad who visited the scene of the attack along with Syria’s interior minister.

Russia, an ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, also joined the condemnation.

“We strongly condemn this unacceptable attack against the Iranian consular mission in Syria,” Russia’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah group warned that Israel would pay for the attack.

Hezbollah has exchanged near-daily cross-border fire with Israel in support of its ally Hamas since the Gaza war erupted in October.

“Certainly, this crime will not pass without the enemy receiving punishment and revenge,” Hezbollah said in a statement on Tuesday. It added that Zahedi was “one of the first to support, sacrifice, and persevere for many years to develop and advance the work of the resistance [Hezbollah] in Lebanon”.

Muslim countries including Iraq, Jordan, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates also condemned the attack.

In the United States, meanwhile, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told reporters that Washington remained “concerned about anything that would be escalatory or cause an increase in conflict in the region”.

When asked about the attack, an Israeli military spokesperson told journalists: “We do not comment on reports in the foreign media.”

The New York Times cited four unnamed Israeli officials as acknowledging that Israel was responsible for the attack.

What could the consequences be?
The attack appeared to signify an escalation of Israel’s targeting of military officials from Iran, which provides money and weapons to hardline groups fighting Israel in Gaza and along its border with Lebanon.

But analysts appear divided over whether the action would bring about a regional war.

Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC, said Israel probably saw the strike more as a deterrent.

“The Israelis are convinced that if they seek to hang back, the threat will grow and not diminish,” he said. “They are persuaded that as long as they do something like this periodically, their adversaries will be deterred.”

However, Steven Cook, an analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, said there was a danger of escalation.

“The IRGC can loosen restraints on proxies in Iraq and Syria, placing American forces in jeopardy again,” he said. “The Iranians could also direct Hezbollah to escalate its attacks on Israel, which have been growing bolder and more numerous.”

The chief spokesman for Israel’s army, Daniel Hagari, said a drone attack on a naval base in southern Israel later on Monday was “directed by Iran” and caused no injuries.

Early on Tuesday, the Israeli military said some kind of weapon fired from Syria towards Israel crashed before reaching its intended target.

Ali Vaez, the director of the International Crisis Group’s Iran Project, agreed there was a risk of expanded conflict but that it might not be of too much concern to Israel.

“[This] puts Israel in a win-win situation because Israel knows Iran doesn’t want to get dragged into a regional war, so if it escalates its attacks against Iranian assets and personnel in Syria, it probably will be cost-free and if Iran does respond and retaliate, then it becomes a justified pretext for expanding the war.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/2 ... do-we-know

I'm hearing rumours of the Russians moving to expel Zionists from Syria's occupied Golan Heights. Big, if true.

[skinster]

[Tainari88]

@skinster this means WWIII. It is terrible.

[skinster]

Feels like we've been in that for some time. Thankfully, when we get these type of dirty attacks, the opponents of the U.S. that they targeted again, be it Iran, China or Russia, are a bit more sane than the savages running the U.S./Israel.

[skinster]

[KurtFF8]

Israel is not only actively committing genocide, but also trying to start a larger war.

[Rugoz]

Killing more Iranian proxies and less people in Gaza could be a sensible strategy.

[KurtFF8]

Killing more Iranian proxies and less people in Gaza could be a sensible strategy.

I don't see how trying to start WWIII is sensible by any measure.

[skinster]

How do Iranians ‘Boil a Frog’? Slowly and methodically.
Iran's apparent restraint in the face of Israeli aggression should not be mistaken for weakness. Tehran steadily applies pressure on Tel Aviv through its own methods, setting the stage carefully for Israel's unravelling.

A strategy in asymmetrical warfare is expressed by the “boiling frog” theory:

Legend has it that a frog placed in a shallow pot of water heating on a stove will remain happily in the pot of water as the temperature continues to climb, and will not jump out even as the water slowly reaches the boiling point and kills the frog. The change of one degree of temperature at a time is so gradual that the frog doesn't realize he is being boiled until it is too late.

While the story is an apologue – a pretty fable meant to convey a meaningful lesson – it is one frequently invoked by militaries and geopoliticians to describe the "long game" of reaching strategic objectives.

Today, it is Iran and its regional allies who are using a measured approach to increase temperatures in West Asia until the water boils the US and Israeli 'frogs' to death. Strategy, discipline, and rare patience – the antithesis of western short-termism – will bring Iran victory. To quote the Taliban: "Americans have watches, but we have the time."

Time is now on the side of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its regional allies. Two connected examples show how the IRGC is calibrating temperatures like scientists in a laboratory.

The Yankee Frog
Following the launch of the Hamas-led resistance operation Al-Aqsa Flood on 7 October of last year, US President Joe Biden deployed US Navy assets to the Persian Gulf and Mediterranean Sea to "defend" Israel.

On 26 November, the USS Eisenhower and its escorts navigated through the Straits of Hormuz, anchoring in the Persian Gulf on the Saudi Arabian side. Yemen's Ansarallah-aligned naval forces initially targeted Israeli ships and Eilat Port with their first shots on 19 October. But by 29 November, their attacks escalated to include vessels bound to or from Eilat, irrespective of flag or ownership.

This pattern culminated in the Pentagon's announcement of "Operation Prosperity Guardian" on 18 December, aimed at safeguarding Israel's economic interests at the expense of US military personnel. Subsequently, the Eisenhower and its naval escorts relocated from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, purportedly to "defend" the occupation state.

Instead, the positioning of US Navy assets in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden has left them susceptible to potential attacks from Iranian or Iranian-supplied weaponry, including cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and drones.

Despite efforts from the US Navy (USN) and the US Air Force (USAF), Ansarallah remains undefeated. Previous Anglo–American airstrikes in Yemen have proven ineffective, while the ongoing pace and expanding scope of Yemeni operations are straining naval resources and dampening morale.

Unlike 'Hollywood guns,' US Navy vessels do not have unlimited interceptor missiles, nor can they be reloaded at sea. As for the morale of American personnel, it will break in the long run, particularly since many, if not most, sailors and marines are simply not invested in a fight for Israel.

Last month, Captain Chris Hill, the commanding officer of the USS Eisenhower, said: "People need breaks, they need to go home."

While sailors, marines, and airmen are getting antsy dodging Ansarallah's drones and missiles on a daily basis, the 'Yankee Frog' is merrily paddling about his Washington hot tub, believing the 'might' of the USN will defeat the pesky 'Houthis.'

This was arguably a well-calibrated move supported by Iran that accomplished two objectives: First, it got the carrier battle group out of the Persian Gulf, and second, it sucked the US into an escalatory trap. The Yankee Frog is in the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden hotpot. It cannot win.

It will either jump out and flee in humiliation, further destroying the credibility of the US armed forces following its humiliating 2021 debacle in Afghanistan; or it will remain in the hotpot and be boiled to death—with the loss of ships and lives.

With either outcome, Iran wins. Relatedly, an Iranian defeat of the US will be welcomed by China, Russia, and scores of US adversary states, particularly across the global south. As noted by one astute Twitter/X user, Armchair Warrior (describing Russia's likely responses to Ukrainian provocations), by its actions, Iran has demonstrated "reflexive control" over Washington's actions. By this, he means, "If every military action you take gets a symmetrical reaction, then you can control the nature, venue, and tempo of the conflict to your benefit." This is precisely what the IRGC is cleverly doing.

The Israeli Frog
The wee 'Israeli Frog,' meanwhile, somnolent in the warm water, is dreaming of his ‘new Israel’ – the Israel that he will create once he has ethnically cleansed Gaza. He has plans to develop Gaza, build luxury condos along the beachfront, and build housing units for new settlers.

Architects are now drawing up plans. Former President and current Republican contender Donald Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, a Netanyahuist and Likud Party benefactor, is measuring drapes for his Gaza waterfront condominium.

However, the Israeli military has not defeated Hamas, which continues to inflict significant damage to Israeli military hardware and human assets. By one estimate, Hamas has only been degraded by 15–20 percent. The occupation army wholly depends on the US and its European vassal states for armaments since its domestic production capacities are limited.

According to one estimate, some 500,000 settlers have returned to their homelands; most will not return. Since 7 October, conscription is no longer a safe yet inconvenient three-year requirement: parents are afraid for their daughters and sons.

The dormant refusenik movement that emerged from the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon has re-awakened. Draftees are refusing to serve and being jailed as a result. The conscription exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews expired on 1 April; they are threatening to flee Israel, whose very survival is dependent on Jews moving there.

If representatives of ultra-Orthodox Jews quit Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition, it could bring down his extremist government. Internal tensions within Israeli society are escalating, fueled by socio-economic pressures and disillusionment with the government's handling of the war.

The Israeli economy is in shambles. The shekel is declining. It is 3.60 ILS to 1 USD from highs of 4.01 ILS to 1 USD, with further declines likely. Budget deficits and borrowing have skyrocketed. Moody's downgraded Israel's credit from A1 to A2 on 9 February. Israel's tourism industry has collapsed into crisis. Most major airlines no longer fly to Israel. Israel's manufacturing and agricultural bases are small. Israel has limited access to natural resources and energy; it depends on overland lifelines to Jordan and Egypt, with Azerbaijani oil and gas coming to Haifa from Turkey.

Iran is doing to Israel just what Israel did to it with economic sanctions. But unlike Israel, Iran has abundant supplies of oil and gas, 85 million literate and educated people who are not planning to flee, and formidable agricultural and manufacturing bases.

Tehran is methodically throttling Israel's economy. Haifa port is on Hezbollah's target list. If Haifa is shut down alongside Eilat, Israel will only have overland lifelines for food and energy supplies. Ben Gurion International and other airports may be targeted in the future.

Turning up the heat, one degree at a time
The recent Israeli attack on the Iranian diplomatic mission in Damascus, purportedly in response to an Iraqi drone striking Eilat, mirrors Netanyahu's apprehensions and frustrations – that "the whole world is ganging up on us."

Netanyahu's strategy appears to be to goad Iran into escalating tensions, potentially prompting them to target American military assets in the region, thereby drawing the US into the Gaza War. However, it's uncertain whether Tehran will take the bait.

While the IRGC is likely to respond, they will look to avoid falling into Netanyahu's trap. Instead, Iran may opt to tighten its economic stranglehold on Israel, possibly by targeting strategic locations such as Eilat, Haifa, and Ben Gurion Airport.

The IRGC understands that Israel's economy cannot sustain a prolonged conflict. Therefore, their strategy might involve a gradual escalation – effectively boiling the Israeli frog slowly – through coordinated actions involving Hezbollah, Ansarallah, and various Syrian and Iraqi-based factions.

As the economist Herbert Stein noted, "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop." While Israel is far from being on the brink of collapse, the disciplined and calculated actions of the IRGC are steadily increasing regional tensions. If left unchecked, this could lead to significant repercussions for Israeli society and its economy – all without it realizing, like the wee boiling frog.
https://thecradle.co/articles-id/24219

I don't see how trying to start WWIII is sensible by any measure.

Rugoz loves him some wars. Must suck for him that every single one he's defended on this board have been pretty much...failures.

[Rugoz]

I don't see how trying to start WWIII is sensible by any measure.

What are you even talking about.

[skinster]

Israeli regime to regret its foolhardy military adventurism against Iran
On Monday, April 1st, the Israeli regime doubled down on its reputation as a rogue pariah entity by carrying out an airstrike on the consular affairs section of the Iranian embassy in the Syrian capital Damascus.

The aerial aggression killed many Iranian military advisors, including a senior commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Mohammad Reza Zahedi and his deputy Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi, among others.

The missile strike was completely illegal in nature and in total breach of Syria's sovereignty, international conventions, Vienna Conventions and the United Nations Charter - perceived as a formal act of war as the consulate is considered Iranian soil.

Many have correctly assessed that this act of cowardly aggression by the Israeli regime is part of a bigger and more sinister plot, as it could not have happened without knowledge of or approval from Israel’s all-weather ally and partner in crime - the United States.

The Israeli regime is now entering its sixth month of unsuccessfully trying to destroy the Gaza-based Hamas resistance movement and free captives. In the process, it has killed almost 33,000 Palestinian civilians, the majority of them children and women.

The October 7 operation launched by Hamas effectively debunked the fallacy of Israeli military and intelligence invincibility. Every day, Hamas fighters have been destroying sophisticated Israeli tanks and weaponry - and still maintain the ability to launch rockets into Zionist settlements from north Gaza - where Israel claims it has liquidated all Hamas cells.

Much to their dismay, Hamas is alive and doing well. It has only grown in strength and conviction so have other Palestinian resistance groups in the besieged strip.

In fact, not a single Palestinian resistance group in Gaza or the occupied West Bank has been destroyed or weakened in the past six months. All these groups have been posting videos of their successful operations on a daily basis.

All Israel has shown since October 7 is its true genocidal face - killing more than 32,000 Palestinians which has landed it at the International Court of Justice in the Hague as well as a crumbling edifice inside the occupied territories with millions regularly demonstrating against the dying and decaying regime.

Add to that the unprecedented unpopularity of Israeli premier Benjamin Netanyahu - who is facing growing calls for ouster each day with thousands of Israeli settlers in the streets - which actually started long before the October 7 resistance operation.

Simply put, Israel is facing political, military, and socioeconomic disasters. It desperately needs a win, and due to its incompetence, it cannot achieve that. Which is why it's poking Iran in such a provocative and dangerous way.

What the regime wants is for Iran to overreact so it can play the victim card and drag the US into another war.

For years, Iran has been thoughtfully strategic and calculated in its response to the Israeli regime's provocations. No act has gone unanswered, be it disabling Mossad networks, liquidating Mossad/Israeli structures and bases, or releasing sensitive information to its allies about Israeli spies and agents.

Most important of all, it has bolstered the Axis of Resistance, which is a fundamental counterweight in the region to American and Zionist occupation and aggression.

Iran’s methodical steps all these years have allowed it to strengthen its own military capabilities while strengthening the Resistance Axis - and it knows a small move will throw the entire axis into jeopardy.

The beauty of this hugely popular and effective axis is that the more powerful each arm of it grows - from the Palestinian resistance to Iraq to Yemen to Hezbollah and so on - the stronger as a whole they grow.

Israel cannot defeat the Palestinian resistance. It cannot go to war with Hezbollah as it lacks US support. It cannot wage a conventional war with the Iraqi resistance or the Yemeni military.

But what it is gambling on is sparking a war with its longtime adversary - the Islamic Republic of Iran - a country the US has been thirsting for war for decades. Israel hopes to create the right conditions for the US to be forced into a full-blown regional war.

What makes Iran an enemy is its steadfast support for the Palestinian resistance and championing of the Palestinian cause since the Islamic Revolution. Iran has not faltered or compromised on the principles centered around the ideology that led to the Islamic Revolution.

Palestinian resistance also acknowledges that. Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad leaders were in Tehran just last week where they met with the Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, President Ebrahim Raeisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and others to discuss the war on Gaza.

Palestinian Islamic Jihad movement chief Ziyad al-Nakhaleh made several remarks regarding Iran’s support for Palestine, praising Iran for supporting the resistance despite facing sanctions and foreign plots.

Both resistance groups standing tall after months of genocidal war and their praise for Iran for its moral and political support to the Palestinian resistance has surely angered the Tel Aviv regime, which is clearly incapable of achieving any of its stated war goals.

Thus, the fresh and unprecedented Israeli aggression breached the red line - as attacking a foreign consulate in a different country goes against the so-called “Rules Based Order” that America touts, but refuses to follow.

This hypocrisy is especially glaring today. Russia called an emergency UNSC meeting on Tuesday to condemn the Israeli aggression on the Iranian consulate - which the Americans, British, and French envoys refused to do. The April 1 attack lays bare that the rules-based order does not exist for the West and its allies.

China also blasted the aggression: “25 years ago, China's embassy in Yugoslavia was bombed by a US-led NATO airstrike... we feel the grief and pain of the Iranian government and people.”

Now what remains to be seen is what Iran’s response will be. All options are on the table. Ayatollah Khamenei as well as other prominent figures have vowed a strong and decisive response. It will be on two fronts: political and military.

On the political front, Iran’s UN Ambassador Zahra Ershadi blasted Israel on Wednesday in a UN speech, demanding that countries condemn the aggression that breaks all international norms. Seeing which countries stand up to this blatantly illegal action will set the bar for all future acts of aggression by any country.

If countries do not condemn this now, then they have no leg to stand on should they also be subject to the same kind of unwarranted aggression.

These words from Ambassador Ershadi's address to the UN should be studied and analyzed carefully:

“The Islamic Republic of Iran has exercised considerable restraint, but it is imperative to acknowledge that there are limits to such forbearance. The occupying regime must bear full responsibility for its consequences," she stated.

" Iran reserves its legitimate and inherent right under international law and the United Nations Charter to take a decisive response to such reprehensible acts.”

Thus comes the military solution. Iran has vowed retaliation at a time and place of its choosing. And it has had plenty of practice for direct hits against Israeli ships, military apparatuses, and other targets.

Recall earlier this year when the IRGC launched a series of missile attacks striking targets as far as Syria - destroying both Mossad and Daesh targets while sending a clear message to the regime in Tel Aviv.

Iranian intelligence also has the identities of Mossad networks located throughout different countries. A proper retaliation could also be disabling Mossad networks across the globe - sending a clear message that Iran knows more than Israelis imagine.

As international norms were breached, Iran too can also deliver a tit-for-tat blow. There are plenty of Israeli embassies in the region used as spy bases for Zionists to subvert regional stability. Though Iran respects its neighbors’ sovereignty and territorial integrity, new lines have been drawn that require appropriate response.

Then there are members of the Axis of Resistance, from Lebanon to Yemen to Iraq who can deal more blows to the illegitimate regime in Tel Aviv. We saw it just last night as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq struck two vital Israeli military sites, including an airbase.

The coming days - or even weeks - will certainly bring an uneasy feeling to Zionists.

To quote Ayatollah Khamenei: “The evil regime will be punished by our brave men. We will make them regret this crime and other ones, by God's will.”

The writing is on the wall: punishment is coming, the people of Iran demand it and it will happen.
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2024/04/0 ... nst-Iran--