Sweden has lowest Covid cases since March - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15120252
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/15/sweden-records-its-fewest-daily-covid-19-cases-since-march

Whilst the UK has introduced the "Rule of Six" to restrict cases with the seven day average of 11 deaths, and the whole of Europe shruggling to keep cases down with a fear of a second wave looming, Sweden seem to be in a very good position in comparison. How can that possibly be when we were told by PoFo experts that Sweden was destined to become Covid death central of Europe and will regret their soft touch approach?

This isn't to downplay the need to wear masks, wash hands or social distance, but the notion that lockdown did anything - or that it has in fact hindering our current Covid response as it has weaken our current position is being proven by statistics, the real source people should use when making an informed opinion on things.
#15120254
Culture and population density are big factors.

I have a few Swedish friends and Swedes weren't packing the pubs. They were staying home.

Let's not forget that there are only 10 million Swedes in all Sweden. 25 Swedes per km2. Germany has 10x that. population density.

Others don't agree... Including a Swedish friend of mine who had two elderly friends die of Covid-19.


Coronavirus: Sweden's Tegnell admits too many died
Although there was no lockdown, Sweden relied on voluntary social distancing, banning gatherings of more than 50 people and halting visits to elderly care homes.

Non-essential travel is still not recommended under national guidelines, but journeys of up to two hours are allowed to see relatives or close friends as long as they do not involve visits to local shops and mixing with other residents.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52903717
#15120255
I think the difference between Sweden and lets say America is they at least acknowledged there is a problem and didn't sweep inconvenience as a conspiracy. But lets not forget Sweden were still criticised and the doomsayers kept saying they were going to suffer badly back in March. And this OP was an argument on lockdown and not behaviour anyways. Lockdown has been proven as a failure by the stats. And if hadn't had been, Europe, who are now in a far worse position now then before lockdown six months ago, would now be in lockdown again now. We have a winter season coming and I can tell you now Sweden will be in a better position then everyone else to tackle an influx of cases.

Europe are behind Sweden because they didn't follow Sweden initially. All of Europe are currently adopting the Swedish approach. Nobody is asking for another lockdown. But nobody can admit they were wrong to begin with. Fine. It doesn't matter. The stats have done that for you.
#15120257
Ok, and what about countries that DID lockdown and suffered far less Covid-19 cases. I notice that people ignore those countries. I suppose that's an inconvenient truth?
#15120259
That depends. If you take the official Swedish figures, they only have about 87k infected, if you take their claims about herd immunity, they have more than a million infected. Now, what is it going to be? You can't have it both ways. The fact that they avoid testing doesn't mean they have few cases.

Anyways, the Swedish death rate is at least 10 times higher than in comparable Nordic countries.
#15120261
Atlantis wrote:That depends. If you take the official Swedish figures, they only have about 87k infected, if you take their claims about herd immunity, they have more than a million infected. Now, what is it going to be? You can't have it both ways. The fact that they avoid testing doesn't mean they have few cases.

Anyways, the Swedish death rate is at least 10 times higher than in comparable Nordic countries.


All countries will have more cases than reported due to asystematic cases. And this isn't over. Let's see where we are once the Winter season is over. And it still doesn't explain why no nation is asking for another lockdown despite being in the mist of a second wave in any case.
#15120262
China, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand... pretty much all the Eastern countries that reacted quickly to the virus and had populations who listened to their governments.

Now, does that have to do with culture, medical systems, or social responsibility? Who knows, but these places are pretty much ignored, as it isn't convenient to the discussion, because they argue that lockdowns WERE successful. Some of these countries are going recover faster because of this, too.

Herd immunity is not a factor, or it has yet to be established as something that can happen.

The "second wave" cannot happen if the first wave hasn't ended. Also, some countries are making some things permanent, thereby having preventive measures already in place to prevent such a thing.
#15120263
The new Swedish study by Soratto et al. (2020) found that the Italian strain of Covid-19 (B.1/G) mutated further in Sweden at position 364 in the S1 subunit, which destabilized the viral spike protein. This novel mutation in Sweden made Covid-19 less infectious by weakening the attachment of the viron to the cell. Sweden got a lucky break as a result of the fluke mutation. SARS-CoV-2 genomes obtained from patients in Stockholm belonged to the genetic strains 20C/B.1/G and 20B/B.1.1/GR. Along with B.1/G from Italy, they are the three main strains found in Sweden. B.1/G declined in prevalence by late April in Sweden, while 20C/B.1/G and 20B/B.1.1/GR mutated locally from B.1/G and they became more prevalent in the country. One of the Swedish strains carries the novel mutation, which affects the attachment of the virion to the cell, thus weakening the spike protein's infectivity. The Tokyo strain in Japan was also weakened by a mutation. Despite the rising number of new cases in Tokyo, over 90% of patients have experienced mild or no symptoms. Australia was not so lucky. The deadly mutation, known as D614G or the G-variant, is now the most prevalent form of the virus in Australia. The Spike D614G amino acid change is caused by an A-to-G nucleotide mutation at position 23,403 in the Wuhan strain, making it more infectious than the original Wuhan virus.

Abstract
Large research efforts are going into characterizing, mapping the spread, and studying the biology and clinical features of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Here, we report four complete SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences obtained from patients confirmed to have the disease in Stockholm, Sweden, in late April. A variant at position 23463 was found for the first time in one genome. It changes an arginine (R) residue to histidine (H) at position 364 in the S1 subunit of the spike protein. The genomes belonged to two different genetic groups, previously reported as two of the three main genetic groups found in Sweden. Three of them are from group B.1/G, corresponding to the Italian outbreak, reported by the Public Health Agency of Sweden to have declined in prevalence by late April, and more investigation is needed in order to ensure that the spread of different types of SARS-CoV-2 is fully characterized.
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 3.233866v1
Last edited by ThirdTerm on 16 Sep 2020 08:52, edited 1 time in total.
#15120264
Godstud wrote:China, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand... pretty much all the Eastern countries that reacted quickly to the virus and had populations who listened to their governments.

Now, does that have to do with culture, medical systems, or social responsibility? Who knows, but these places are pretty much ignored, as it isn't convenient to the discussion, because they argue that lockdowns WERE successful.


They aren't being ignored. They aren't in lockdown. But their success and failure will be down to how well they maintain their government advice and international travel restrictions rather than any lockdown they had six months ago - which is the same with Sweden now. Remember, the Swedes didn't adopt the Bolsonaro approach. They still had rules. Nonetheless the rise of the second wave in Europe (which it is) seems to have a relationship with the holiday season. Although that might be coincidence. And we have a Winter season coming. Nonetheless it will be interesting to see how Asia do once restrictions are lifted over time.
#15120268
Godstud wrote:@B0ycey They WERE in lockdown. That's something that is important to note.


It is, but they aren't now and that is also important to note. They are controlling their cases by policy. The same as Sweden and Europe. Yet that has always been Swedens approach. Sweden also don't have a huge Covid debt bill and was part of the Frugals restricting Covid bailouts not so long ago. Along with that they are also six months ahead of Europe and on par with Eastern Asia and perhaps in a better position than most in the forecoming Winter season.
Last edited by B0ycey on 16 Sep 2020 08:56, edited 1 time in total.
#15120269
If you compare death tolls, you'll still notice that Sweden suffered more deaths. What is more important to people. Money or lives?
#15120271
Godstud wrote:If you compare death tolls, you'll still notice that Sweden suffered more deaths. What is more important to people. Money or lives?


The death toll will only be important once this is all over. Sweden are better than the UK, France, Spain and Italy for example who had lockdowns. And if there is a influx of cases in the Winter, who is to say that many more nations won't follow suit?

Lockdowns have more negative consequences than just economics in any case. Some of which relate to health I might add.
#15120272
The places that locked down quickly, have already re-opened. It's a nice narrative that people push thinking that the lockdown did harm. It did, but not as bad as many deaths would have caused.

Now, you know I live in Thailand, where we locked down very quickly. Well, we reopened pretty much everything on July 1. Guess what? No resurgence of cases. People returning to work or new businesses opening(tourism has taken a huge hit).

58 deaths from Covid-19 as a result of speedy travel bans and border closures, along with lockdowns ordered by the government, and enforced.

I argue that Sweden is hardly a role model for anything, but disaster through inaction. 5,821 deaths in a country of 10 million vs 58 deaths in a country of 70 million. I know where I'd rather be(luckily I am).

Now, I am going to a birthday party and BBQ/pool party. I have no fear because Thailand stopped the spread of Covid-19. :cheers:
#15120273
To be honest Godstud. All the people in the lockdown debate are entrenched in their belief and I am not here to change opinion but to showcase stats. But the behaviour of leaders who almost refuse to enact a second lockdown when on the verge of a second wave has already shown Sweden was right to begin with. And all I ask for is consistency. Less so from you or the Americans. But on the Europeans. If lockdown was right six months ago, why aren't you calling for it now when things are worse today than March? I already know the answer. Lockdowns are not sustainable and really they never were and only now are people seeing this. You can only control this by policy. And the Swedish policy at that. So they were right whether people want to acknowledge it or not.
#15120274
Things aren't worse today than in March, in the countries that locked down in SE Asia. Why is that? Could it be that people started doing things like wearing masks and contact tracing and kept doing them?

Lockdowns are not sustainable. I agree. However, if you do it right, they don't need to be. The more people who don't listen, makes it last longer, however.
#15120290
B0ycey wrote:All countries will have more cases than reported due to asystematic cases. And this isn't over. Let's see where we are once the Winter season is over. And it still doesn't explain why no nation is asking for another lockdown despite being in the mist of a second wave in any case.


Not all countries. Some countries including the UK, the US and Sweden are under-counting, while others like Germany are over-counting. Regarding deaths, that can easily be seen from the excess deaths data. Regarding infections, it goes without saying that Sweden has far more undetected cases than most countries. Thus, the OP's claim is patently false.
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