Top Ten Political Predictions for 2019. - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#14976441
So, last year around this time I made political predictions for the coming year, and I will do so again, but before I do, I want to recap the predictions I made in December 2017 for 2018 to see how I did.

You can see the original post here; made December 27, 2017:

viewtopic.php?f=45&t=172460


My Ten Predictions for 2018

1. The Mueller investigation will come to a climax, Trump will not be indicted, but someone close to him likely will, but not for collusion or treason, but on a process crime. Trump will finish the year in office and with a higher approval rating than he finished in 2017.


The Mueller investigation was announced to be coming to an end right before the midterms and have appeared to climax in the indictments made over the last couple of months. As predicted, they were of people close to the President on process crimes.

Furthermore, Trump's average approval for December 2018 was higher than his average approval for the month of December 2017, also as predicted, even though the exact number for the last week in December were exactly the same as last year. 10/10

https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/pre ... trump.aspx

2. The Republicans will make gains in the Senate, but lose seats in the House. There will not be a Democratic sweep of both houses, the Republicans will retain the Senate, the House may go either way.


I predicted this almost perfectly. The Senate was retained by the Republicans and even improved, but the House was lost. 10/10

3. The situation in Syria will stabilize and it will be clear by the end of 2018 that Assad will remain in power for the foreseeable future, and few people will care.


Absolutely correct per my prediction, the situation has stabilized and Trump is pulling U.S. troops out of the region and Assad remains in power......and few people really care. 10/10

4. The U.S. economy will continue to grow and prosper through 2018, this will give a sense of stability and tone down much of political hysteria we saw in 2017. Consumer confidence will remain high and U.S. housing prices will continue to rise.


This prediction has also been generally true; consumer confidence was high, we had record sales for Christmas, the best since 1999 and housing prices have continued to rise. In spite of the Stock Market hitting records earlier in the year, there has been some recent instability partly due to the trade war with China and rising interest rates caused by a Fed gone rogue; however, GDP grew this year and I was overall right-on.

I give myself an 10/10 on this one.

5. Brexit talks will continue throughout 2018 and will continue to be annoying, but it will be clear that Brexit will happen before the end of 2018. It will not be undone.


I felt better about this two months ago, as it appeared that the deal was done, until it was pulled from the Parliamentary floor after May's apparent betrayal of the Brexiteers with a shit deal.

Anyway, I give myself a 7.5/10 on this due to the recent instability in UK politics on this in recent weeks.

6. Trump will have at least one major legislative accomplishment in 2018, either infrastructure or the wall, but not much else, if anything else. NAFTA will come to an official end in 2018.


NAFTA did come to an official end in 2018, marking atleast one major policy accomplishment. Trump's prision reform was also a pretty big deal that no one is talking about. 10/10.

7. The whole sanctions/tough talk pattern with North Korea will continue much as it did in 2017, but I only predict this over what I feel is a solid 45% chance of war on the peninsula.


Trump actually made peace with North Korea and the process of disarmament has begun. I was way to pessimistic on this prediction from what actually transpired. 0/10

8. There will be continued extremist attacks in 2018, but less than in 2017 and "ISIS" well be term that is almost gone from our vocabulary and collective consciousness by the end of 2018.


Nailed this one on the fucking head. 10/10.

9. Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin in market value before the close of 2018.


Yeah....I was wrong on this, I thought the Bitcoin bubble was going to crash much harder, and it appears in my mind now that Ethereum will always be to Bitcoin was silver is to Gold. Oh well. 0/10.

10. We will see at least one major event of violence in the Spanish speaking world, either in Venezuela or Catalonia.


Yeah, the Catalonia thing has pretty much gone away with no one even remembering that it was even going on. Venezuela has been in a bad and worsening state all year, with violence and economic stability rampant, so I give myself a 2.5/10.

My Score out of 100 is 70.00%.

Not great, but not bad.

____________________________________________________________________________

My Predictions for 2019

I am going to be even more bold in some of these.

1. The Mueller Probe will come out with an indictment against Trump for a process crime, or atleast may a suggestion to the Justice Department and or Congress along a similar or less-serious vein which will prompt talk of impeachment. Trump's approval will go up as a result.

2. Ruth Bader Ginsberg will die or be forced to step down in 2019, prompting a heated political climate. Trump will get to replace her in another heated Senate confirmation process; however, the nominee will sail in with more votes thanks to the increased Republican Majority.

For bonus points, I predict that Amy Coney Barret will replace her under the woman-for-woman paradigm, but will lead to mass protests nonetheless.

3. Joe Biden will become the obvious Democratic nominee by the close of the year with O'Rourke a distant second. The DNC overall field will look pretty shitty only exacerbating the internal struggles between the Neo-Liberal New-Deal Corporate Democrats of old and the emerging young New Left Social-Democrat/Democratic-Socialist SJW wing.

4. Trump will eviscerate his potential opponents on Twitter as he watches the primary debates for the DNC while commenting on them publicly. This will be an unprecedented phenomena in U.S. History increasing political engagement and setting Trump up as the real front-runner going into the election of 2020, both with match-up polls and his overall support. He'll have had a chance to peg everyone with a new catchy nick-name as well. This will become the main news front for 2019.

5. Trump will announce a major withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan by end of year.

6. Brexit will happen, whether under an improved or shittier plan. Either way, a real resolution of the matter will take place in 2019.

7. There will be a major event of violence in the Spanish speaking world, probably in Venezuela.

8. The House Democrats and Trump will work together on an Infrastructure Bill before the end of the year; though I am unsure if they will get it passed in the Senate.

9. Major reform of Marijuana laws in the United States will continue either with the support of, or in spite of, President Trump.

10. Trump will strike a major trade deal with China effectively ending the trade war and causing stocks to soar. At the very least, tariff reform in China will take place to some degree and intellectual property rights will be secured for U.S. Companies.
#14976444
I would make some significant tweaks.


1. The Mueller probe will lose political legitimacy, but struggle to continue into the 2020 election year with the aim of playing spoiler. It will be too obvious by half. Mueller has tipped his hand with the silly nude selfie thing, indicating that he has not understood why Trump remains popular and why he won the presidency. Salaciousness will not bring Trump down, because he never championed himself as some paragon of virtue.

2. RBG won't die, but it will become increasingly obvious that her clerks are actually running the show, much like Kennedy's ridiculous ruling on Obergefell revealed that he was no longer really there. Amy Coney Barret will probably NOT be the first choice, as Trump will use her as a compromise to his more strident first white male appointee which he will withdraw if absolutely necessary.

3. The DNC Presidential Race will probably be a shit show. If Michael Bloomberg enters the race, he may be able to upset the DNC establishment like Trump because they cannot shut him down financially. He will be too much of a bore to win though.

4. Agreed. Trump will not stop Tweeting. Much of it will be outrageously funny.

5. Agreed. Trump will not want to maintain major forces. However, private military contractors may continue to operate alongside the CIA as FACs. Use of drones will continue.

6. I disagree. The establishment will do its level best to prevent a Brexit agreement in hopes of changing public opinion on leaving the EU. However, the Gilet Jaunes movement will continue even though oil prices are falling. The National Front in France and the AfD in Germany will continue to gain support as voters realize that the establishment is not their friend; however, it will be a slow process due to decades of demonization of the political right. Support for remaining in the EU will decline across Europe. The effort to derail Trump's presidency with a recession timed for 2020 will backfire for the establishment in Europe, triggering another financial crisis in Europe that imperils the EU.

7. Just to be safe, there will be a major event of violence somewhere. Probably another terrorist attack whose perpetrators were known to the establishment, and who did nothing to prevent it for fear of appearing racist.

8. Recalling that Nancy Pelosi gave us the national pecker checker agency, also known as the TSA, it is not unlikely that she will work with Trump if it involves expanding the government with more government employees.

9. It's a given, because nobody cares about marijuana. However, the war on opiates will continue.

10. I'm undecided here. The arrest of the Huawei executive suggests that additional trouble is on the horizon. Trump has talked about a "national" 5G network, which at a minimum suggests that they are concerned about 5G from a geopolitical and security perspective. The Chinese and Huawei cannot be allowed to rollout 5G in the US or Europe, indeed in any country that wants access to high tech trade with the West. The tariffs are clearly hurting China much more than the United States, so Trump is in control of this situation.
#14976452
Victoribus Spolia wrote:So, last year around this time I made political predictions for the coming year, and I will do so again, but before I do, I want to recap the predictions I made in December 2017 for 2018 to see how I did.

You can see the original post here; made December 27, 2017:

viewtopic.php?f=45&t=172460




The Mueller investigation was announced to be coming to an end right before the midterms and have appeared to climax in the indictments made over the last couple of months. As predicted, they were of people close to the President on process crimes.

Furthermore, Trump's average approval for December 2018 was higher than his average approval for the month of December 2017, also as predicted, even though the exact number for the last week in December were exactly the same as last year. 10/10

https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/pre ... trump.aspx



I predicted this almost perfectly. The Senate was retained by the Republicans and even improved, but the House was lost. 10/10



Absolutely correct per my prediction, the situation has stabilized and Trump is pulling U.S. troops out of the region and Assad remains in power......and few people really care. 10/10



This prediction has also been generally true; consumer confidence was high, we had record sales for Christmas, the best since 1999 and housing prices have continued to rise. In spite of the Stock Market hitting records earlier in the year, there has been some recent instability partly due to the trade war with China and rising interest rates caused by a Fed gone rogue; however, GDP grew this year and I was overall right-on.

I give myself an 10/10 on this one.



I felt better about this two months ago, as it appeared that the deal was done, until it was pulled from the Parliamentary floor after May's apparent betrayal of the Brexiteers with a shit deal.

Anyway, I give myself a 7.5/10 on this due to the recent instability in UK politics on this in recent weeks.



NAFTA did come to an official end in 2018, marking atleast one major policy accomplishment. Trump's prision reform was also a pretty big deal that no one is talking about. 10/10.



Trump actually made peace with North Korea and the process of disarmament has begun. I was way to pessimistic on this prediction from what actually transpired. 0/10



Nailed this one on the fucking head. 10/10.



Yeah....I was wrong on this, I thought the Bitcoin bubble was going to crash much harder, and it appears in my mind now that Ethereum will always be to Bitcoin was silver is to Gold. Oh well. 0/10.



Yeah, the Catalonia thing has pretty much gone away with no one even remembering that it was even going on. Venezuela has been in a bad and worsening state all year, with violence and economic stability rampant, so I give myself a 2.5/10.

My Score out of 100 is 70.00%.

Not great, but not bad.

____________________________________________________________________________

My Predictions for 2019

I am going to be even more bold in some of these.

1. The Mueller Probe will come out with an indictment against Trump for a process crime, or atleast may a suggestion to the Justice Department and or Congress along a similar or less-serious vein which will prompt talk of impeachment. Trump's approval will go up as a result.

2. Ruth Bader Ginsberg will die or be forced to step down in 2019, prompting a heated political climate. Trump will get to replace her in another heated Senate confirmation process; however, the nominee will sail in with more votes thanks to the increased Republican Majority.

For bonus points, I predict that Amy Coney Barret will replace her under the woman-for-woman paradigm, but will lead to mass protests nonetheless.

3. Joe Biden will become the obvious Democratic nominee by the close of the year with O'Rourke a distant second. The DNC overall field will look pretty shitty only exacerbating the internal struggles between the Neo-Liberal New-Deal Corporate Democrats of old and the emerging young New Left Social-Democrat/Democratic-Socialist SJW wing.

4. Trump will eviscerate his potential opponents on Twitter as he watches the primary debates for the DNC while commenting on them publicly. This will be an unprecedented phenomena in U.S. History increasing political engagement and setting Trump up as the real front-runner going into the election of 2020, both with match-up polls and his overall support. He'll have had a chance to peg everyone with a new catchy nick-name as well. This will become the main news front for 2019.

5. Trump will announce a major withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan by end of year.

6. Brexit will happen, whether under an improved or shittier plan. Either way, a real resolution of the matter will take place in 2019.

7. There will be a major event of violence in the Spanish speaking world, probably in Venezuela.

8. The House Democrats and Trump will work together on an Infrastructure Bill before the end of the year; though I am unsure if they will get it passed in the Senate.

9. Major reform of Marijuana laws in the United States will continue either with the support of, or in spite of, President Trump.

10. Trump will strike a major trade deal with China effectively ending the trade war and causing stocks to soar. At the very least, tariff reform in China will take place to some degree and intellectual property rights will be secured for U.S. Companies.


LOL is this a joke?
"There will be a major event of violence in the spanish speaking world"? Spanish is the second largest group of native speakers after chinese... your "prediction" is akin "there will be vioelence somwehere in the world sometime next year"... except that is the way the world has been for its WHOLE known history. What a shitty prediction LOL, same with the rest.
Anyhow I'll jump on your joke. Here are my predictions:

1.- Water will flow through rivers sometime during next year.
2.- A lunar or solar eclipse, either total or partial will occur next year, at least twice (wow bonus point for 2x)
3.- South Miami will not see any major blizzard or snowstorm
4.- There will be at least 2 shootings during the year, possible on schools or hospitals but it could be anywhere.
5.- Trump will continue to be the moron he is, his IQ will not raise and he will continue to behave childish on twitter.
6.- Jehova's witness will continue to knock on my door to "convert me" into their non-sense.
7.- Lindsey Graham will continue to flip back his words. Probably fall back into Trump's side on his comments regarding withdrawal of troops or on the treatment of immigrant children. In other words, he will not get balls or spine anytime next year.
8.- Robert Muller will continue to silently snatch more and more people around trump, possibly people we have never heard off. There will be far more evidence towards what is already evident (Trump not legitimate president, helped by Russians thorugh coordination and collusion) but he will continue to whine and cry "witch hunt". Muller will continue to remain silent and quietly snatch more and more of trump's adjacent people without actually touching trump because the plan is long term and he will come down sometime in the future but not necesarily on 2019.
9.- Ruth Bader Ginsburg will fall again, Retardicans will make a big deal about it and then we will find out he had brain and liver cancer and operated silently and she will be back to her exercises in no time again, beating cancer for a 4th and 5th time.
10. - North Korea will continue to whine about the US and threaten us with it's nuclear weapons but since they are starving to death and have little to no resources left, their threads will be empty. They may stage another empty meeting with the US goverment and then back down like they did before.
11. - Pelosi will continued to be hated by retardicans
12. -Mitch McConnell will continue to do Trump's wishes and will remain hated by democrats as a result.
13. - We will see a dozen up and down stock markets
14. - Apple will releast an iphone sometime next year. Possibly around september.
15.- There will be a gofundme for idiotic retardican ideas
16.- There will be a gofundme for a similarly democrat idea
17.- Amazon will buy other business and enter different markets.
18.- Conflit in the Middle east will continue to be a mess. Possibly worsen.
19.- Russia will keep flying their planes very close to our military equipment and people will post it online and make a big deal out of it.
20. - There will be a viral video of a pet, possibly a cat or dog, doing something cute with a baby and will get at least 1 million views.
21. - Some members of this forum which shall not be named will continue to be racists and ignorant trolls.

Hopefully I covered most of them. Lets see how they do.
#14976478
XogGyux wrote:LOL is this a joke?
"There will be a major event of violence in the spanish speaking world"? Spanish is the second largest group of native speakers after chinese... your "prediction" is akin "there will be vioelence somwehere in the world sometime next year"... except that is the way the world has been for its WHOLE known history. What a shitty prediction LOL, same with the rest.
Anyhow I'll jump on your joke. Here are my predictions:


LOL!!! ROTFL!!! JK!!! WTF!! OMG!!! GMAFB!!!

What are you? A 13 year old facebooker?

:lol:

XogGyux wrote: Spanish is the second largest group of native speakers after chinese... your "prediction" is akin "there will be vioelence somwehere in the world sometime next year"


:eh:

If I wanted to say the whole world, I suppose qualifying it by a linguistic-cultural group would be non-sensical, besides I qualified it further than that.

XogGyux wrote:1.- Water will flow through rivers sometime during next year.
2.- A lunar or solar eclipse, either total or partial will occur next year, at least twice (wow bonus point for 2x)
3.- South Miami will not see any major blizzard or snowstorm
4.- There will be at least 2 shootings during the year, possible on schools or hospitals but it could be anywhere.
5.- Trump will continue to be the moron he is, his IQ will not raise and he will continue to behave childish on twitter.
6.- Jehova's witness will continue to knock on my door to "convert me" into their non-sense.
7.- Lindsey Graham will continue to flip back his words. Probably fall back into Trump's side on his comments regarding withdrawal of troops or on the treatment of immigrant children. In other words, he will not get balls or spine anytime next year.
8.- Robert Muller will continue to silently snatch more and more people around trump, possibly people we have never heard off. There will be far more evidence towards what is already evident (Trump not legitimate president, helped by Russians thorugh coordination and collusion) but he will continue to whine and cry "witch hunt". Muller will continue to remain silent and quietly snatch more and more of trump's adjacent people without actually touching trump because the plan is long term and he will come down sometime in the future but not necesarily on 2019.
9.- Ruth Bader Ginsburg will fall again, Retardicans will make a big deal about it and then we will find out he had brain and liver cancer and operated silently and she will be back to her exercises in no time again, beating cancer for a 4th and 5th time.
10. - North Korea will continue to whine about the US and threaten us with it's nuclear weapons but since they are starving to death and have little to no resources left, their threads will be empty. They may stage another empty meeting with the US goverment and then back down like they did before.
11. - Pelosi will continued to be hated by retardicans
12. -Mitch McConnell will continue to do Trump's wishes and will remain hated by democrats as a result.
13. - We will see a dozen up and down stock markets
14. - Apple will releast an iphone sometime next year. Possibly around september.
15.- There will be a gofundme for idiotic retardican ideas
16.- There will be a gofundme for a similarly democrat idea
17.- Amazon will buy other business and enter different markets.
18.- Conflit in the Middle east will continue to be a mess. Possibly worsen.
19.- Russia will keep flying their planes very close to our military equipment and people will post it online and make a big deal out of it.
20. - There will be a viral video of a pet, possibly a cat or dog, doing something cute with a baby and will get at least 1 million views.
21. - Some members of this forum which shall not be named will continue to be racists and ignorant trolls.


Somebody drank the cool-aide and needs to quit snorting Ritalin before posting on POFO.

Holy fuck dude, its a top ten predictions list, not a bill of rights.

I must have forgot to check the weather today....

Image
#14978771
XogGyux wrote:3.- South Miami will not see any major blizzard or snowstorm


What about North Miami, which just a few miles North of South Miami.

Fun fact, North Miami, Miami, and South Miami are 3 different cities with 3 different mayors.

Miami Beach where the famed South Beach is, is also it's own city with its own mayor.
#14978781
Victoribus Spolia wrote:Holy fuck dude, its a top ten predictions list, not a bill of rights.

Since the US Bill of Rights is a list of 10 amendments, I put it to you that this criticism makes no sense and that you are silly sausage. :excited:

Anyway, my main predictions for 2019:

1. The Jets will fuck up their new uniforms and logo.
2. Brexit will continue to bore everyone to death and will certainly not be "definitively" resolved.
3. Marshal Kim Jong-un will continue to humiliate the wretched American capitalist pig-dogs and demonstrate the overwhelming superiority of Juche.
4. The Democrats will have learned absolutely nothing from the last four years. The DNC primary will be something like O'Rourke vs Warren, and idiots will lap it up before it becomes apparent that the winner will fail miserably in the general election.
5. There will be another conveniently timed "chemical attack" in Syria which just so happens to prevent US withdrawal.
6. It will emerge that China's mission to the far side of the moon was cover for putting a giant "laser" in the Sea of Tranquility, turning the moon into what Xi Jinping likes to call a "Death Star".
7. Saudi Arabia will again do something dreadful, and it will be completely ignored.
8. Christ will not return to smite the sinners... yet. (Or will He? :eek: )
9. Emmanuel Macron and Justin Trudeau will, unfortunately, carry on as usual.
10. Australia will have at least one new prime minister by the end of the year.
#14978790
1. There will be a violent attack somehwere in the English speaking world. If the perpetrator(s) is (are) Mulsim, it will be considered significant. If it done by a white guy, it will be considered insignificant.
2. Climate change science will be confirmed even more than it already is. Politicians will continue to do nothing.
3. There will be many mass shootings in the USA. Nothing will change.
4. There will be wars in MENA countries. There will be discussions of democracy and freedom, but control of oil resources will be the only change.
5. The wall will not be built.
6. There will be more recognition of indigenous people, and more acknowledgements of whose land it is, but no real changes in terms of sovereignty or land or resource control will happen.
7. Immigration from the global south wil continue as it is, with increased ethnic diversity in developed countries.
8. The flu will kill tens of thousands of people in the US alone. Anti vaxxers will continue to ignore science.
9. The West will make critical comments about human rights abuses in Saudi Arabia and China, but trade will continue as usual.
10. An oil pipeline will be built over indigenous lands. There will be protests. The police will be ordered to get rid of the protesters.
#14978811
Hillary Clinton will announce a new book explaining her reasons for changing genders and admitting to an affair with her Latino gardener. She will then announce her intent to run in 2020.
#14979021
1. Modi will no longer be Indian PM.
2. Third front under the leadership of Communist Party of India (Marxist) will form the new government.

That is all, at least one can hope. :(
#14979154
1. President Trump will remain in office.
2. Ruth Bader Ginsburg will pass away and Trump gets to nominate a third SCOTUS judge. This will cause acute psychiatric problems for many liberals.
3. The State of Israel will continue to go from strength to strength, economically and militarily.
4. The EU will continue to wallow in its divided empire, with populist parties making huge gains in the Euro Parliament elections in May.
5. If Brexit is reversed in the UK, it will lead to very serious social unrest from the leavers.
6. A huge earthquake will hit South Asia, with enormous destruction and loss of life.
7. Aliens will visit Earth but they will remain unnoticed because they are very small.
8, 9, 10. predictions are not ready for publication yet..
#14979993
Ter wrote:8, 9, 10. predictions are not ready for publication yet..


The suspense is killing me.
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