Major shares sell-off as Inflation fears grow! - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15172165
I'm going to argue this is not a red flag and temporary. This is the result of pent up demand getting loosened up.

I do not believe this is the big one.

I would argue that buying this "bad" news is what everyone should be doing. Discounts are to be had. This is an opportunity, not a problem.... For now... for the moment.
#15172169
Crypos always crash. The previous trend was due to Musk and the current crash is down to him also. You play with bulbs you best not be last holding them that is all I am going to say on the matter given there is no intrinsic value to them @colliric.

@Rancid, I am assuming you are buying up then? My personal view is the stock market has been over priced for a while now and I'll be more inclined to listen to Buffett than the FED. Although this could be down to the pipeline rather than fear in inflation in which case you could be quids in. So each to their own.
#15172173
B0ycey wrote:@Rancid, I am assuming you are buying up then? My personal view is the stock market has been over priced for a while now and I'll be more inclined to listen to Buffett than the FED. Although this could be down to the pipeline rather than fear in inflation in which case you could be quids in. So each to their own.


Yes, I've bought in some more. I agree that the stock market seems overpriced. When that big correction happens, I will be buying more again. The deeper downward it goes, the more and more I will buy.

As long as I still have a job, that is what I've done in the past, and that is what I plan to do. I have a large time horizon, and the market always goes up. We are higher today than the great depression; we are higher today than the great recession; etc. etc.

If everything comes crashing down hard to the point where capitalism collapses, well... my money wouldn't be worth anything anyway.

I'm working in one of the industries that was booming before the pandemic, and got a significant bump because of the pandemic. I am not worried about my job like I was back in 2008.
#15172176
Interest rates are being kept at low levels. Here in Sweden our Central Bank director expects 0% rate until 2023.

Too much money in the system being speculated with to create even more money. House prices have risen 18.8% in a year.

I've made a healthy chunk on my investment funds but considering selling of portions of it (and buying back after a correction, certainly 8))
#15172179
MadMonk wrote:Interest rates are being kept at low levels. Here in Sweden our Central Bank director expects 0% rate until 2023.

Too much money in the system being speculated with to create even more money. House prices have risen 18.8% in a year.

I've made a healthy chunk on my investment funds but considering selling of portions of it (and buying back after a correction, certainly 8))


That's the issue I see. Housing. That is where all the extra money is going, that is where the inflation is happening. What I'm saying is, we shouldn't be worried about CPI, we should be worried about the housing inflation that is happening.

It's probably time to raise interest rates to control housing inflation (which is left out of CPI).
#15172180
Rancid wrote:Yes, I've bought in some more. I agree that the stock market seems overpriced. When that big correction happens, I will be buying more again. The deeper downward it goes, the more and more I will buy.

As long as I still have a job, that is what I've done in the past, and that is what I plan to do. I have a large time horizon, and the market always goes up. We are higher today than the great depression; we are higher today than the great recession; etc. etc.

If everything comes crashing down hard to the point where capitalism collapses, well... my money wouldn't be worth anything anyway.

I'm working in one of the industries that was booming before the pandemic, and got a significant bump because of the pandemic. I am not worried about my job like I was back in 2008.


The only word of caution I will give you is that if the company goes bust, the shares are worth nothing. That is where people got stung in 1929. They lost everything they had - not that there was a downturn that would eventually become an upturn which you imply. However if you put your money in the right shares (computing, mining, gold etc), then I would say they would be safe whatever happenings in the future. Besides, the FED says inflation will be under control so I would say you have the right strategy if you trust what they say. When you are on your desert Island and driving your Ferrari, I will remember how you did it, copy and perhaps buy the Island next door. :D
#15172183
B0ycey wrote:
The only word of caution I will give you is that if the company goes bust, the shares are worth nothing. That is where people got stung in 1929. They lost everything they had - not that there was a downturn that would eventually become an upturn which you imply. However if you put your money in the right shares (computing, mining, gold etc), then I would say they would be safe whatever happenings in the future. Besides, the FED says inflation will be under control so I would say you have the right strategy if you trust what they say. When you are on your desert Island and driving your Ferrari, I will remember how you did it, copy and perhaps buy the Island next door. :D


I stopped picking individual stocks/companies years and years ago. When I buy in, I'm buying into the market as a whole (index funds). I basically do X things:

- Expired

This has served me well since 2008. I have a solid chance at a very very very comfortable and stress free retirement. I've stated this before, but my goal is to be like JImjam. :lol:
Last edited by Rancid on 14 May 2021 13:52, edited 1 time in total.
#15172269
B0ycey wrote:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57096308

I'm sure Steve America will say nothing to fear here, but given we are at a sell-off on shares point now and we have been here before with the Great Crash of 1929, I am just going to put this red flag here for anyone who is interested. Still a long way off any major sell off I would say but something to keep an eye on.


So, inflation fears is causing a 1 day stocksell off.
1] "Fears" is the 1st key word.
2] One day is not a tend or "ongoing".

So, nothing to worry me, yet. But then, I own zero stock.

I *hate* how the Fed. since 2008, has used the wrong econ. theory to guide it. This resulted in QE, that flooded the rich with cash. And they bid up housing prices.
As many see now the prpoer way to'stimulate'the economyis with checksto the bottom so they spemd it and so the cash works its way to the hands of the rich. Everyone gets something. Where giving cash to the rich totally hurts the bottom half.
.
#15172280
B0ycey wrote:Crypos always crash. The previous trend was due to Musk and the current crash is down to him also. You play with bulbs you best not be last holding them that is all I am going to say on the matter given there is no intrinsic value to them @colliric


No actually the first crash this week was caused by Barry Silbert of Coindesk. Personally shorted Dogecoin and sent the price tumbling 35% just hours before Musk's SNL appearence. Lead to a market-wide panic sell before SNL. I saw it live. Basically the first time a hedgefund style Short attack on a Crypto happened.

This was his admission tweet:


Musk deliberately attacked Bitcoin yesterday and basically as revenge, since that's Silbert's biggest investment. Dogecoin's going back up now.

The Tulip bubble analogy doesn't really make sense when you actually think about, since Crypto currency is in fact a currency investment. Yes it could go up and down, but if it's anything like the Dotcom crash, there's a Google, Amazon, PayPal and eBay in there somewhere regardless(and I've got a bit of everything), meanwhile Jobs returning in the late 90s to Apple still hadn't affected it's then shitty stock price yet.

Same people bitching about Crypto Tulips were talking about Uber Tulips and Netflix Tulips 10 years ago.
#15172316
colliric wrote:The Tulip bubble analogy doesn't really make sense when you actually think about, since Crypto currency is in fact a currency investment. Yes it could go up and down, but if it's anything like the Dotcom crash, there's a Google, Amazon, PayPal and eBay in there somewhere regardless(and I've got a bit of everything), meanwhile Jobs returning in the late 90s to Apple still hadn't affected it's then shitty stock price yet.

Same people bitching about Crypto Tulips were talking about Uber Tulips and Netflix Tulips 10 years ago.


Actually @colliric the Tulip bulb analogy makes perfect sense given that Crypocurrencies aren't like other currencies as there is no national liability against them, interest or taxation to support it. Crypocurrencies are merely a medium of exchange and no different than a piece of paper that says IOU on it. Besides, I don't know how much you know about the Tulip bulb fiasco (very little it seems), but people didn't buy bulbs to plant them. They bought them to sell on - very much like Crypocurrencies today. People saw the price kept going up and as such wanted to be part of it - very much like Crypocurrencies today. And like Crypocurrencies in the future, those who hold the bulbs last lose out and those who sold out early get their rewards which is the destiny of all this especially when nations create their own Crypocurrencies in the future making all others completely obsolete.

Also, the DotCom bubble is different to all this given there is an actual product in digital shares. The bubble was created by people seeing the potential and then bidding up the price resulting in an overvalue that burst. Netflix and Uber are still worth something which is more than I can say for Crypocurrencies which are merely equations and numbers and has as much commodity as fresh air.
#15172319
Steve_American wrote:I *hate* how the Fed. since 2008, has used the wrong econ. theory to guide it. This resulted in QE, that flooded the rich with cash. And they bid up housing prices.


The 2008 QE was given to banks to keep them solvent. Without the bailout they would have gone bust. That isn't meant to be an excuse, and it goes against capitalism risk and reward, but without banks there is no borrowing and as such no possible avenue for investment in growth. The money didn't go to the rich per se. The money was already in the economy given it was the selling of toxic loans as assets. All that happened was the liability of the toxic assets changed hands to the government.

As for the FED, they predict inflation is nothing of concern which is aligned to your POV. Besides, they don't guide the economy. The economy guides itself. They just control rates so people are able to spend more into the economy. And when rates are practically zero right now, well they don't have much control now it seems.
#15172320
B0ycey wrote:Actually @colliric the Tulip bulb analogy makes perfect sense given that Crypocurrencies aren't like other currencies as there is no national liability against them, interest or taxation to support it. Crypocurrencies are merely a medium of exchange and no different than a piece of paper that says IOU on it. Besides, I don't know how much you know about the Tulip bulb fiasco (very little it seems), but people didn't buy bulbs to plant them. They bought them to sell on - very much like Crypocurrencies today. People saw the price kept going up and as such wanted to be part of it - very much like Crypocurrencies today. And like Crypocurrencies in the future, those who hold the bulbs last lose out and those who sold out early get their rewards which is the destiny of all this especially when nations create their own Crypocurrencies in the future making all others completely obsolete.

Also, the DotCom bubble is different to all this given there is an actual product in digital shares. The bubble was created by people seeing the potential and then bidding up the price resulting in an overvalue that burst. Netflix and Uber are still worth something which is more than I can say for Crypocurrencies which are merely equations and numbers and has as much commodity as fresh air.


... Um no. This is totally wrong. That would make sense prior to 1929, but after the crash of 1929 no.

The lesson investors learnt from the great depression is to stop the crash immediately by buying even more and sending the price quickly back up. That's why crashes have not lasted more than 1 day since then.

People are buying Crypto and legit storing it on what are called Cold Wallets so it is not entirely online currency and can in fact ultimately be "minted" and used physically(there are companies that are now printing physical Crypto coins that are cold wallets).

And dude, do I need to point out to you it is in fact a legal way to avoid paying taxation? Do you not understand how much of a global market there is for investing permanently in Crypto currency in order to screw the Democrats (because it's mainly them and other high taxation left wing parties) out of taxes?

Crypto can be bought, downloaded to a cold wallet, buried(or locked in a safe) and hidden. When the Republican gets in and lowers Taxes and de-regulates shit.... Dig it back up.

Preppers buy, bury and wait for the Republican. As usual.
#15172327
Rugoz wrote:The Tulip analogy doesn't make sense because Tulips are actually worth something. A medium of exchange who's value is utterly unstable and requires giganormous amounts of energy to create is worthless.


That's why Dogecoin and newer Cryptos are superior.....

https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/u ... e-20591978

... Also by your reckoning the US Dollar is worthless since it uses far more energy and fossil resources, and is also unstable. Especially for us Australians who have to figure out every day how much $1 AUD is compared to USD.
#15172331
colliric wrote:That's why Dogecoin and newer Cryptos are superior.....

https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/u ... e-20591978

... Also by your reckoning the US Dollar is worthless since it uses far more energy and fossil resources, and is also unstable. Especially for us Australians who have to figure out every day how much $1 AUD is compared to USD.


The US dollar can be created and destroyed at basically zero energy cost. It's also very stable relative to the price of goods and services in the US, just as the AUD is very stable relative to the price of goods and services in Australia. Even relative to each other, they are far more stable than Bitcoin.
#15172334
colliric wrote:... Um no. This is totally wrong. That would make sense prior to 1929, but after the crash of 1929 no.

The lesson investors learnt from the great depression is to stop the crash immediately by buying even more and sending the price quickly back up. That's why crashes have not lasted more than 1 day since then.

People are buying Crypto and legit storing it on what are called Cold Wallets so it is not entirely online currency and can in fact ultimately be "minted" and used physically(there are companies that are now printing physical Crypto coins that are cold wallets).

And dude, do I need to point out to you it is in fact a legal way to avoid paying taxation? Do you not understand how much of a global market there is for investing permanently in Crypto currency in order to screw the Democrats (because it's mainly them and other high taxation left wing parties) out of taxes?

Crypto can be bought, downloaded to a cold wallet, buried(or locked in a safe) and hidden. When the Republican gets in and lowers Taxes and de-regulates shit.... Dig it back up.

Preppers buy, bury and wait for the Republican. As usual.


Where do I start with a user who works in a supermarket and thinks they are a Wall Street shark? Rugoz is correct, Tulips are actually worth something and Crypocurrencies aren't, that will be the starter I think. 1929 was a crash that was caused due to people buying stocks with derivatives and 10% margins which inflated the price of stocks beyond their worth. So the lesson from that is not to buy buy buy to prevent a crash actually. The lesson is not to pay more for something than something is actually worth on a Bull Market. And no, people don't buy Crypocurrencies to stick it to the Democrats. They see the current price rises and want to buy in. Very much like you. In fact I wish I had done it a few years back, but I don't want to be the idiot left with nothing at the end. So I would rather let people like you gamble on this instead. I wish you well. Just don't leave it too long before you sell out.
#15172339
B0ycey wrote:The 2008 QE was given to banks to keep them solvent. Without the bailout they would have gone bust. That isn't meant to be an excuse, and it goes against capitalism risk and reward, but without banks there is no borrowing and as such no possible avenue for investment in growth. The money didn't go to the rich per se. The money was already in the economy given it was the selling of toxic loans as assets. All that happened was the liability of the toxic assets changed hands to the government.

As for the FED, they predict inflation is nothing of concern which is aligned to your POV. Besides, they don't guide the economy. The economy guides itself. They just control rates so people are able to spend more into the economy. And when rates are practically zero right now, well they don't have much control now it seems.


I said the QE since 2008.
So, even if we ignore the QE of 2008, there is still the QE of 2009 thrugh 2020.
The Fed. was feeding cash into the economy at the toprather than the bottom.
As I understand it, the Fed's thinking was that the banks need dollars to lend, but this was disproved in 2014 by an experiment involving a 200K euro loan by a German bank.
I have posted the link twice, you can google it or find my link.

.
Last edited by Steve_American on 14 May 2021 13:20, edited 1 time in total.

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