Realpolitik and Afghanistan. - Page 2 - Politics Forum.org | PoFo

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#15187220
QatzelOk wrote:That's not what happened, or what was presented.

Afghanistan had a socialist revolution in the late 70s and found itself racing ahead with Cuban style medicine and education reforms.

The USA then started giving economic support to Redneck Muslim Gangs in order to destabilize the country on the USSR's doorstep.



"The Great Game" meant that Afghanistan would be smashed by the West and its paid assassins, and there was a trillion dollars in mineral wealth that Western corporations could "easily" take as bounty from their bribe-addicted Mujahideen.

This "game" has meant that Afghanistan's human development has been set back 5 decades. And just so rich useless people can feel like they're playing a game.

Image

It wasn't quite as simple as that, @QatzelOk. Afghanistan has been politically unstable ever since the monarchy was overthrown in 1973, and has been socially as well as politically unstable ever since the Khalq seized power in the Saur Revolution. And I say 'Khalq' rather than 'Communists' advisedly - the Afghan Communist Party, the PDPA, was fatally split into two rival factions from the moment of its founding in the mid-1960s. Hell, even the Khalq itself split into two rival factions as soon as it took power - Amin and Taraki kept trying to whack each other, until Amin finally succeeded. It was this - Amin's coup d'etat against his boss - which prompted the Soviet invasion, and not the Mujahideen insurgency. And the first thing the Soviets did was to besiege the Presidential Palace and whack Amin. The West played no role in any of this @QatzelOk.
#15187243
Potemkin wrote:The West played no role in any of this.

I wonder if from an Afghan point of view even the Russians are Western people who mean to westernise them. Maybe they accept China only because it's east of them. :lol:
#15187257
Beren wrote:I wonder if from an Afghan point of view even the Russians are Western people who mean to westernise them. Maybe they accept China only because it's east of them. :lol:

The problems arose because of Hafizullah Amin's determination to modernise and westernise Afghanistan, by force if necessary (and of course, force was necessary). The Soviets kept telling him to ease off, not to rush things, not to antagonise the traditional tribal society of rural Afghanistan. But, of course, he wouldn't listen to them. Forget Taraki - he was just a figurehead, a puppet whose strings Amin believed he could pull. After all, the Saur Revolution had been Amin's idea. He had built up the network of contacts in the Afghan army which made it possible, he had organised it, and he had set it in motion. The problems only arose because Taraki started believing in the cult of personality which Amin had created to boost his puppet. Taraki tried to cut his strings by assassinating Amin, but Amin got him first. This enraged the Soviets, who didn't like or trust Amin, so they invaded Afghanistan to kill Amin. At first, Amin thought they had come to help him crush the Mujahideen. Imagine his surprise when they surrounded his fortified palace and started shooting at him.... :lol:

No, the Soviets were not the problem - it was Amin and his merry band of Khalq fanatics who caused the present instability in Afghanistan by trying to brutally modernise (which of course means westernise) Afghan society. Thousands of tribal elders were tortured and murdered by Amin (and his figurehead Taraki) just for resisting these reforms. The Soviets kept telling Amin what a mistake this was (Brezhnev even told him, "the people will not forgive this"), but he refused to listen. Killing Taraki was the final straw.
#15187261
Potemkin wrote:The problems arose because of Hafizullah Amin's determination to modernise and westernise Afghanistan, by force if necessary (and of course, force was necessary). The Soviets kept telling him to ease off, not to rush things, not to antagonise the traditional tribal society of rural Afghanistan. But, of course, he wouldn't listen to them. Forget Taraki - he was just a figurehead, a puppet whose strings Amin believed he could pull. After all, the Saur Revolution had been Amin's idea. He had built up the network of contacts in the Afghan army which made it possible, he had organised it, and he had set it in motion. The problems only arose because Taraki started believing in the cult of personality which Amin had created to boost his puppet. Taraki tried to cut his strings by assassinating Amin, but Amin got him first. This enraged the Soviets, who didn't like or trust Amin, so they invaded Afghanistan to kill Amin. At first, Amin thought they had come to help him crush the Mujahideen. Imagine his surprise when they surrounded his fortified palace and started shooting at him.... :lol:

No, the Soviets were not the problem - it was Amin and his merry band of Khalq fanatics who caused the present instability in Afghanistan by trying to brutally modernise (which of course means westernise) Afghan society. Thousands of tribal elders were tortured and murdered by Amin (and his figurehead Taraki) just for resisting these reforms. The Soviets kept telling Amin what a mistake this was (Brezhnev even told him, "the people will not forgive this"), but he refused to listen. Killing Taraki was the final straw.




Thanks for that bit of fascinating Afghan history. I find it fascinating that Amin was so out of control even the Soviets had to ask him to go easy on reforms.
#15187262
Juin wrote:Thanks for that bit of fascinating Afghan history. I find it fascinating that Amin was so out of control even the Soviets had to ask him to go easy on reforms.

Amin was almost single-handedly responsible for creating the 40 year long corpse-strewn mess which is modern Afghanistan. It would have been better by far for Afghanistan, for the Soviet Union, and for the United States too, if Hafizullah Amin had never been born. And I say that as a Communist myself.
#15187284
Potemkin wrote:No, the Soviets were not the problem - it was Amin and his merry band of Khalq fanatics who caused the present instability in Afghanistan by trying to brutally modernise (which of course means westernise) Afghan society. Thousands of tribal elders were tortured and murdered by Amin (and his figurehead Taraki) just for resisting these reforms. The Soviets kept telling Amin what a mistake this was (Brezhnev even told him, "the people will not forgive this"), but he refused to listen. Killing Taraki was the final straw.


The Soviets were class traitors at this point, as Mao correctly recognized. :up:
#15187288
Rugoz wrote:The Soviets were class traitors at this point, as Mao correctly recognized. :up:

Revisionist class traitors they may have been by the 1970s, but they turned out to be correct in their advice to Amin. He achieved nothing with his policies but to stir up a hornets' nest, which eventually swept the Afghan Communists away. You have to cut your suit according to your cloth. The Khalq vastly overestimated their own strength and underestimated the strength of their enemies. By the time the Soviets invaded to oust the Khalq and install the Parchamites in their place, it was too late. The forces of reaction, with Western help, were able to overwhelm them. And with the rise of the Taliban, any attempt to modernise or westernise Afghanistan now looks doomed for the foreseeable future.
#15187303
Rugoz wrote:Afghanistan should probably have been divided up in different regions with different forms of government. I don't understand this obsession with maintaining barely functional nation states.

The Taliban have managed to conquer almost all of the territory of Afghanistan, including all the cities. They are in a position to be able to forge a functional nation-state, if they don't fuck things up. After all, England was once in a similar condition until the late 9th century. And Germany and Italy weren't unified nation-states until the 1860s. In fact, if the Taliban manage to forge a national consciousness out of Afghanistan over the next few decades, they will have achieved something worthwhile. I'm not holding my breath though.
#15187305
Potemkin wrote:The Taliban have managed to conquer almost all of the territory of Afghanistan, including all the cities. They are in a position to be able to forge a functional nation-state, if they don't fuck things up. After all, England was once in a similar condition until the late 9th century. And Germany and Italy weren't unified nation-states until the 1860s. In fact, if the Taliban manage to forge a national consciousness out of Afghanistan over the next few decades, they will have achieved something worthwhile. I'm not holding my breath though.


I think they have yet to take Panjshir.
#15187317
Rugoz wrote:Afghanistan should probably have been divided up in different regions with different forms of government. I don't understand this obsession with maintaining barely functional nation states.


Somalia is probably a better example of this.

The obsession is, ultimately, not about the countries in concern, but other countries which might simply break up if this obsession is removed altogether.

China, Spain and, regrettably, the United Kingdom are the first three to jump into my mind.
#15187318
Patrickov wrote:Somalia is probably a better example of this.

The obsession is, ultimately, not about the countries in concern, but other countries which might simply break up if this obsession is removed altogether.

China, Spain and, regrettably, the United Kingdom are the first three to jump into my mind.


I'd say China, Spain and the UK have more established structures than simply barely functioning governments. But if they stopped to function, yes a breakup would be an option.
#15187328
Potemkin wrote:After all, England was once in a similar condition until the late 9th century. And Germany and Italy weren't unified nation-states until the 1860s.


Nation-building in Europe was a nasty process that evolved along ethnic lines, to my knowledge. Multi-ethnic states tend to be not-so-stable. Maybe Afghanistan has to go through the same process?

I say that as somebody living in a country with a weak ethnic identity, so you can't accuse me of being a fan. :lol:
#15187331
Rugoz wrote:Nation-building in Europe was a nasty process that evolved along ethnic lines, to my knowledge. Multi-ethnic states tend to be not-so-stable. Maybe Afghanistan has to go through the same process?

Who better to do this than the Taliban?

I say that as somebody living in a country with a weak ethnic identity, so you can't accuse me of being a fan. :lol:

Lol.
#15187356
Potemkin wrote:The West played no role in any of this @QatzelOk.

You sound like Cuban exiles who say that sanctions aren't the reason Cubans live with shortages.

Afghanistan wasn't perfect, before 1979. No country ever was. But...

John Pilger wrote:On July 3, 1979, unknown to the American people and Congress, Carter authorized a $500 million “covert action” program to overthrow Afghanistan’s first secular, progressive government. This was code-named by the CIA Operation Cyclone.


But, it had a progressive and girls-school-funding government when the USA started funding rednecks to overthrow it through violence. This is the most important event that has stopped human development in this country.

Nice try though. What you have "revealed" is one of the cleavages that the hegemon exploited... in order to steal resources from people who are much poorer than we are. There is no moral justification possible for this.

Rugoz wrote:Multi-ethnic states tend to be not-so-stable

Yes, look how the West destroyed multi-cultural India, or Yugoslavia, or North America. The "instability" made it easy for racists fighting for racial superiority to triumph over... people who got along with others.

Finding potential cleavages and exploiting them... is the devil's work, not "the world's policeman's" job description.
#15187364
Potemkin wrote:Who better to do this than the Taliban?


I meant maybe it would be better to divide Afghanistation along ethnic lines. I don't think the Taliban plan to do that. Of course ethnic identity can also be manufactured to some extent. For example by imposing a single language.

ckaihatsu wrote:Just a *smidge* of ethnic cleansing, then -- ? Anything to say about the former Yugoslavia?


There's the challenge of finding appropriate borders, obviously. Some population exchange isn't necessarily worse than constant civil war.

No doubt civic nationalism is vastly preferable to ethnic nationalism, but it seems much more difficult to achieve.
#15187496
Rugoz wrote:
There's the challenge of finding appropriate borders, obviously. Some population exchange isn't necessarily worse than constant civil war.

No doubt civic nationalism is vastly preferable to ethnic nationalism, but it seems much more difficult to achieve.



Okay, meta-statesman, what do you think about Sykes-Picot, for example -- ?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sykes%E2% ... _Agreement
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