[JohnRawls]

So start on the subject, as many who read Fukuyama understand that I am talking about the End of History here that has been proven wrong or dated on the subject with the current events, so what kind of nonsense I am going to spout here and how is this related to the greatest challenge for the Modern West?

Let us start with the premise of the liberal democratic order that the West lives in and what is the current situation regarding it without getting in the benefits and downsides since we have these topics every day here. So where are we right now:

1) After the collapse of the Soviet Union the idea was that Liberal Democracy will spread itself eventually by itself without us putting any much effort because it is just a superior system - which obviously happened only to a limited degree.
2) West liberal democratic order has made great strides by expanding Eastwards in Europe and basically including most if not all of the former Soviet Satelite states of the Soviet Union in to the West with the reforms and economic progress being very smooth in most places.
3) There is currently a conflict between Russia and the liberal democratic West due to their fear of Nato expansion with China having similar concerns. This stems from the fact that Liberal Democracies have a moralistic view of international politics while China and Russia are more realists in their view and try to achieve a balance of power or change the balance of power in to their favour.

Russian and Chinese realpolitik views should not be considered outdated this is simply an ideological I suppose standpoint on the subject. The same way as Liberal Democrats view relations of non-liberal states as aggression between their own people and the state which contradicts inalienable rights.

My firm belief right now is that we are finally at the verge of Russian regime weakening to the point of collapse which presents great opportunities for Liberal Democrats and the people of Russia in general. While it can't be certain when Putins regime will fully collapse, be it in 5 years or 10 or 20 or even 50 but I don't really think that current Russian system will survive to 50 years. So we need to take opportunity of this situation and facilitate change inside Russia in to a Liberal Democratic direction. This has to be conducted with taking in to account the pitfalls or mistakes that have been done in the past and also to maintain the current balance of things in the Western world while maintaining core interests of all parties involved which I will cover as we go on.

So how do I imagine it happening:

Phase 1 Current times
This part covers the current balance of things and the situation as it is right now. Putins regime is weakening and is unable to provide economic growth for its own people. This situation is unsustainable over a long period of time and eventually will lead to a collapse but this doesn't guarantee that a Liberal Democrats will come to power after. There is significant interest in this especially in the European parts of Russia but overall success can't be guaranteed. There are certain steps that can be taken to improve the situation in our favour.

Current the main problem that I see with Liberal Democrats coming to power is that the Russian people are very risk averse due to the collapse of the Soviet Union and the following failed reforms while the re-reforms are mostly accredited to Putin and not the more educated Liberals who actually conducted it under late Yeltsin and early Putin. This point needs to be emphasized more that Putins regime is a dead end without any prospects of economic growth or ideas how to change it. If we look at the basic concepts of liberal democracy:

Core values:
1) Individualism over Society. The inherently risk averse nature of Russian people right now are more inherent to choose Society > Individual.
2) There is no common ground or one single right choice. On this most Russians will agree.

Core implementation of Liberal democracy:
1) Inalienable rights. Again there is a problem with the risk averse nature that Russian people might choose Stablity>Inalienable rights.
2) Tolerance. This is not the same tolerance as most understand it nowadays. This is the basic idea that other peoples ideas have a right to exist. There shouldn't be a problem in this regard.
3) The State. The State has always been an integral part of Russian existence for a long time so there shouldn't be much of an issue here.

Situation is already changing with Putin loosing popularity but we probably should emphasize this more and more. If needed we can introduce additional sanctions both on the Russian state and the "elites" to pile on the pressure over a period of time.

Phase 2 The collapse and integration

The main question here is obviously how to make sure that after the collapse, Liberal Democrats come to power and how can we start integrating them in to the Western order as fast as possible while not breaking things for the order itself.

If the groundwork is done in phase 1 as it is currently happening then Liberal Democrats will come to power by the looks of it but then it doesn't mean that we can't take additional steps to make sure it happens. What could these steps be?

Well, the basic premise of Liberal Democrats coming to power in Russia would be economic growth and reform of the whole system. To do that they require investment and political goodwill to some degree and this can be used as a carrot and a stick. Carrot in a sense that if Liberal Democrats come to power then we can scrap all the economic sanctions step by step and both Europe and US can open full investment opportunities with free trade with no questions asked non-conditionally. This would be a great boon to the Liberal Democrats but this can only be done if Inalienable rights are attached as clauses to those agreements that without reform this investment and goodwill might disappear. This way we solve 2 problems in non-coercive measures. This also prevents any the West from falling in to the Bush Doctrine method of trying to create Liberal Democracies at the point of a gun. In a sense it would provide the Liberal Democrats in Russia to conduct change on their own with significant support from the West with basic guidance or principles attached. Ultimately this is perhaps the best way to do it if we take the successful experiences of Eastern Europe and failed experiences in the Middle East in to account.

But this agreements require Europe and US to solve some of the fundamental questions in their relationships and over a long term perhaps re-purpose NATO to some degree. The fundamental Strategic interest of the US has always been to prevent a Hegemony from appearing in Europe and thus US thought 2 world wars to prevent this. European Union is already an entity that violates that core principle if you look at it with a realpolitik kind of view but in reality it is acceptable since most of the electorate in the EU or US are Liberal Democrats and view the situation as Liberal Democrats. So a Liberal Democratic Russia could be considered a problem if it starts to fully integrate with the EU since it is closer but it can still be acceptable if the conditions are met. So what are the conditions:
1) Equal access to Russian resources for US and EU. If EU gets majority of the resources then this might not be acceptable.
2) Equal access to investment and trade in to Russia for US and EU. This should require a trade deal between Europe and US to be possible or a trade deal when the change happens which also includes Russia at the same time.
3) Maintaining US unipolarity in foreign relations and military matters. Per the current situation in the EU, this would be acceptable if the EU can be certain of US direction. This also allows Liberal Democratic order to continue expanding after the change happens and we the West will not fall in to power balance politics of a multipolar world.

Phase 3 Making Liberal Democracy stick and outcome
So theoretically if this happens then the investment from both sides of the Atlantic should provide significant if not unprecedented growth for the people of Russia. Perhaps the best increase in their quality of life in their history. If needed a new Martial Plan of sorts can be introduced also with limited strings attached but this doesn't answer the question of Why and for what benefit?

So what are the benefits for the West itself to make this possible:
1) At the core of it, we are spreading Liberal Democracy which solves the problems of peace, terrorism and other large scale societal problems over time.
2) It provides security and additional prosperity for the Eastern European members of the EU beyond the basic benefits from increased trade with Russia.
3) It solves the problem of Russian interference as a state actor against Liberal Democratic values.
4) Non-directly it will force Russian satellite regimes like Belarus to accept Liberal Democratic change.
5) It also removes the road block from the current pro-Liberal Democratic regimes at conducting this change without Russian interference.
6) It expands the Resource base of the global Liberal Democratic system over a long period of time.
7) Even if you measure it with Realpolitik terms then no alliance would be able to match the Liberal Democratic system power for power under ANY foreseeable close or medium time perspectives so China, who is lagging behind Russia by 10-20 years will no longer pose any significant short or long term threat to Liberal Democracy.

While this is a lot of text already for a forum post, I still think that it is important to add that it satisfies both the Realpolitik crowd and Naivepolitik crowd(Liberal Democrats). If you look at it from a Liberal Democratic perspective that a Liberal Democratic Russia is worth it no matter the cost and finally viewing Russia as the "good guy" is the greatest achievement that any Liberal Democratic could have. While from the realpolitik standpoint, Russia matters as a geographic location and due to resources, it provides significant resources in many ways, it is either a region or a global power that can be introduced in to the system not to mention it WILL help contain China over a long period of time due to Russia having its own inherent problems with China and its far eastern Regions. From a realpolitik standpoint Russia is an inherent ally of ours in our relations with China, especially aggressive China.