[MistyTiger]

The "evidence" that at least many of the accusations are false comes from mathematics, statistics and probability theory.

Where is your proof? How can we use probability to figure out how many rapes actually occurred? That would be a really messy, painful experiment if we put hundreds of women in the same vicinity as HW and then watched how he interacted with them over a series of months.

Ummm yeah, we cannot do that.

[Puffer Fish]

Sexual coercion is sexual assault. And sexual assault is a crime, on the same level as rape.

Well, there you and I disagree.

If the woman had the choice to say no, I believe I and the majority of people would say that is not actual rape.

We're talking about women who did not say no because of their careers.

While this is despicable and morally wrong (in my personal individual opinion), it is not rape. Even if he pushed himself on them (which Weinstein likely did), it still falls short of rape.

I would even go so far as to say it is not altogether clear this should even be illegal. Certainly it is not the case in any Muslim country in the world.


But the fact YOU personally view it as the same as rape could very much help explain why two juries (in very progressive parts of New York and California) were willing to find Weinstein guilty, even if they did hold some doubts about the witnesses' stories.

That means the issue was not only just about whether they believed the witnesses were telling the complete truth about being raped.

[Puffer Fish]

Where is your proof? How can we use probability to figure out how many rapes actually occurred?

I've repeated this multiple times so far in this thread.
If it is not obvious to anyone by now, I am not going to be wasting the time to repeat or having to explain it.

That would be a really messy, painful experiment if we put hundreds of women in the same vicinity as HW and then watched how he interacted with them over a series of months.

Ummm yeah, we cannot do that.

The point is there is no way to tell in this type of situation. That is a big issue we all need to think about.

I would however suggest a sting operation, carried out by law enforcement over a very long period of time.
Find a volunteer, and have him monitored at all times to be able to prove in court later on that he did not assault anyone during that period of time. For 12 years he would not be allowed to go anywhere without a police companion accompanying him. There would be cameras on him at all times. When he goes out to public events, there would be two secret police officers keeping an eye on him at all times, which he would know about.
Then set up a false backstory for him and use the news to give publicity. Make everyone think he is famous and extremely rich. Set up the same sort of situation that happened with Weinstein, and then wait for the false accusations to start rolling in.
Could probably round up hundreds of women and put them in prison.

[Rich]

Scientifically we are in a terrible position when it comes to the private interactions of human beings. The only way to do good science on this is to secretly film and sound record large numbers of individual over extends periods of time without their knowledge. My guess is that if you tried to do this, there is a strong likelihood of it leading to the raising of ethical concerns.

Absent the scientific research we just have unmoored opinion and prejudice. Even if a man admits to rape that doesn't mean that we can be certain a rape took place, and just because a woman admits to making false allegations doesn't mean a rape or a sexual assault didn't take place. Human's are unreliable witnesses at the best of times. People in a state of sexual arousal or fear or both are likely to make for particularly unreliable witnesses.

[Puffer Fish]

Absent the scientific research we just have unmoored opinion and prejudice. Even if a man admits to rape that doesn't mean that we can be certain a rape took place, and just because a woman admits to making false allegations doesn't mean a rape or a sexual assault didn't take place. Human's are unreliable witnesses at the best of times. People in a state of sexual arousal or fear or both are likely to make for particularly unreliable witnesses.

That is true but it ignores the whole issue I was getting at.

It is very problematic to rely entirely on the testimony of a witness when that witness both stands to gain monetarily from their testimony, and knows it is a certainty no one will ever be able to disprove what that they said so therefore they have no fear of punishment.

This case kind of raises that issue to another level of complexity and ups the ante, since there are a group of completely separate witnesses like this (who are not even giving testimonies about the same alleged incident).

[ingliz]

@Puffer Fish

WAS HARVEY WEINSTEIN REALLY GUILTY?

What does it matter?

To quote Voltaire...

Il est bon de tuer de temps en temps un amiral pour encourager les autres.

[MistyTiger]

I've repeated this multiple times so far in this thread.
If it is not obvious to anyone by now, I am not going to be wasting the time to repeat or having to explain it.


The point is there is no way to tell in this type of situation. That is a big issue we all need to think about.

No, we do not all need to think about it. I would rather not think about what some filthy rich, fat old man does when he is not at work.

I would however suggest a sting operation, carried out by law enforcement over a very long period of time.
Find a volunteer, and have him monitored at all times to be able to prove in court later on that he did not assault anyone during that period of time. For 12 years he would not be allowed to go anywhere without a police companion accompanying him. There would be cameras on him at all times. When he goes out to public events, there would be two secret police officers keeping an eye on him at all times, which he would know about.
Then set up a false backstory for him and use the news to give publicity. Make everyone think he is famous and extremely rich. Set up the same sort of situation that happened with Weinstein, and then wait for the false accusations to start rolling in.
Could probably round up hundreds of women and put them in prison.

Without probable cause, a sting operation cannot be carried out. That would be illegal.

[Pants-of-dog]

@Puffer Fish

What exactly were the laws that HW was found guilty of breaking?