[BeesKnee5]

This of course is true given it is basically Newtons third law in practice however the question still remains, does our power grid produce enough energy in order to compensate the energy being lost in the combustion engine? There is a LOT of energy being created everytime someone drives a car. And if you multiply that, it is a lot of electricity. I can't say I have looked enough into this to have an informed opinion. But I do know our (UK) power grid is basically on full capacity everytime there is a major Football match and people turn the kettle on at half time. And we are expected to produce the energy on the grid to power peoples commute as well? I would say there is going to be a wakeup call very quickly if all people do indeed go electric by the end of the decade.

80% of the energy put into a petrol engine is wasted as heat, whilst EVs are around 90% efficient. So you need a quarter of the power to run an EV as you do a petrol engine.

The UK grid is not on full capacity. The amount of electricity used has fallen by 20% in ten years from 320TWh to 250TWh, with the peak falling from 65GW to 47GW.

The transition to EVs will have two effects, it will push up electricity demand by 20% (back to 2012 levels) and lower peak demand. The reason is simple, most people will plug the car in and charge at night when it's cheaper and many who do very little mileage will opt for V2G so they can benefit from selling electricity when the price is higher.

[BeesKnee5]

The UK rely on wind. I do know we are building offshore wind farms like they are going out of fashion. But I also know our nuclear power plants are coming towards decommissioning time which creates far more power than offshore windfarms anyway. And doing some minor research on this, Eon is assuming our changing habits will make the electric revolution practical. I would say that is optimistic. So I only expect this will be a starting process rather than a final solution. We will continue to encourage electric vehicles and then curb that enthusiasm when the grid is at risk of meltdown.

I've just bought an EV.

To charge it I have 3 main options
1. High power stations 30-50p per kWh
2. Home charge during the day 15-20p per kWh
3. Home charge at night 5p per kWh

Sure some will opt for option 1&2 but in petrol equivalent it's like asking someone If they'd like to fill up for £25 or £2.50.

For me it's a no brainer.

Take this a step further, 4 hours charging at 5p is good for 100+ miles. If your daily journey is less than this then with V2G you will be able to use this spare charge to reduce your household electricity bill in the evening instead of paying 20p per kWh to the grid.
https://octopus.energy/blog/vehicle-to-grid/

EVs are not going to cause the grid to meltdown. For that you need to look at the transition from gas boilers.

[B0ycey]

80% of the energy put into a petrol engine is wasted as heat, whilst EVs are around 90% efficient. So you need a quarter of the power to run an EV as you do a petrol engine.

The UK grid is not on full capacity. The amount of electricity used has fallen by 20% in ten years from 320TWh to 250TWh, with the peak falling from 65GW to 47GW.

The transition to EVs will have two effects, it will push up electricity demand by 20% (back to 2012 levels) and lower peak demand. The reason is simple, most people will plug the car in and charge at night when it's cheaper and many who do very little mileage will opt for V2G so they can benefit from selling electricity when the price is higher.

Sure combustable engines aren't entirely efficient given they have a waste product (and heat), but I can only go by your figures unless you have a source. But even so you are predicting a 20% increase anyway which although is basically a return to previous levels, is ignoring we have power plants that should have been decommissioned by now which are on their extra life as it were due to our CURRENT Demand.

As I said, my very minor research on this has found that Eon is expecting (hoping) we change our electric habits to fulfil this demand. I would say that is wishful thinking and I would also say that our estimates are probably wrong anyway. Kind of like the cost of HS2 was wrong. But I am no expert so perhaps it is I that is wrong. Either way I am happy you have bought your electric car and that you are happy with the saving made from it and I expect others will do likewise for similar reasons. And the government will continue to push them on us in any case. BUT if there are signs that the grid is unable to handle the demand, regardless when they are charged at night or whatnot, they will be forced to change their message to stop the grid from meltdown (as everyone will charge at night). And really that is the point being made by the OP. Not that we shouldn't buy electric cars but they might not be feasible. Or not feasible on a universal platform in any case.

[BeesKnee5]

Sure combustable engines aren't entirely efficient given they have a waste product (and heat), but I can only go by your figures unless you have a source. But even so you are predicting a 20% increase anyway which although is basically a return to previous levels, is ignoring we have power plants that should have been decommissioned by now which are on their extra life as it were due to our CURRENT Demand. .

The 20% is the figures of the national grid future energy scenarios document.

The grid can cope with the demand.

The capacity market determines what power stations are paid to be on standby to meet peak demand.

Usually around 80GW bid in all the auctions and 40GW win contracts in the T4 auctions (IE 4 years in advance )
https://www.edfenergy.com/media-centre/ ... t-4-202425

There is then a T2 and T1 auction to ensure capacity is in place to meet demand. This takes multiple forms, from baseload power stations, peaker plants to foreign imports and storage and companies agreeing to reduce usage at peak times.

There is no shortage of these. Nuclear will lose another 3-4 GW of capacity and gain it back when Hinckley C is complete, there will still be gas power stations burning fossil fuels and biogas with an injection of green hydrogen. There are a growing number of interconnects, with the latest in planning coming from Morocco and Iceland.

The bottom line is that EV adoption will happen long before the grid becomes zero carbon and the National grid will continue to pay suppliers to ensure capacity.

[B0ycey]

The 20% is the figures of the national grid future energy scenarios document.

Given you are basing your information on a scenario, then all I will say I hope these predictions are correct. It wouldn't be the first time we were over confident on our predictions especially as I expect they are relying on our changing habits but whatever, we will of course learn more as we move along and adjust our strategy accordingly. If the model begins to say we can expect power shortages or that there are delays on the completion of Hickley especially, then the government will delay the push for electric cars. Until then they will push them. If all the data and scenarios say we will be fine when I guess that is what we should expect today given anything else is mere hearsay.

[BeesKnee5]

Given you are basing your information on a scenario, then all I will say I hope these predictions are correct. It wouldn't be the first time we were over confident on our predictions especially as I expect they are relying on our changing habits but whatever, we will of course learn more as we move along and adjust our strategy accordingly. If the model begins to say we can expect power shortages or that there are delays on the completion of Hickley especially, then the government will delay the push for electric cars. Until then they will push them. If all the data and scenarios say we will be fine when I guess that is what we should expect today given anything else is mere heresay.

I suggest you look it up,

It's not a scenario, it's multiple - from worst to best case.

Interestingly the worst case for zero carbon has lower demand from EVs due to slower adoption.

The worst case is 100% EVs and no smart charging, which would push up peak demand by 20%

The best case is 100% with V2G which pushes peak demand down by 5-10%

[B0ycey]

I suggest you look it up,

I would prefer a source to make a better judgement. I am only going by what you have provided me and given you seem to know what you are talking about, I am taking you words for face value as I don't know much on this subject. But what I do know is every single government commissioned document in history is always over optimistic and the end result seems to be worse than the worse prediction. If that is the case again on this issue, we have a problem given that we have power plants still running that shouldn't be to keep the current demand of electricity in the UK. That perhaps might be pessimistic to you or even crazy perhaps. But I just call that experience.

[BeesKnee5]

I gave you the source

The information is easy to find

UK electricity since 2012
https://infogram.com/british-electricit ... kdpjd?live

National Grid FES
https://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/gas-tra ... narios-fes

Effect on winter peak demand

[B0ycey]

I gave you the source

Thank you. On closer examination it is behaviour science, basically the same logic applied by Eon.

[BeesKnee5]

I would prefer a source to make a better judgement. I am only going by what you have provided me and given you seem to know what you are talking about, I am taking you words for face value as I don't know much on this subject. But what I do know is every single government commissioned document in history is always over optimistic and the end result seems to be worse than the worse prediction. If that is the case again on this issue, we have a problem given that we have power plants still running that shouldn't be to keep the current demand of electricity in the UK. That perhaps might be pessimistic to you or even crazy perhaps. But I just call that experience.

We can only judge a report on past performance, so far it's been slap bang in the middle and thats despite covid slowing sales.


I wouldn't worry too much about whether the lights are going to go out, capacity has been growing for years and that is set to continue, storage, offshore and interconnects are booming. One thing is sure though, as much as I'd like fossil fuels to disappear tomorrow, the powers at be will continue to burn it until there is sufficient low carbon sources to take it's place.


Things like this knock socks off the pittance of nuclear we have left

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2021/04/22/ ... e-uk-grid/

[B0ycey]

I wouldn't worry too much about whether the lights are going to go out, capacity has been growing for years and that is set to continue,

There is a green revolution so perhaps that is why we are increasing capacity. Although the reason for giving Hickley a very good price for energy produced was not because we had good capacity or even to fuel electric cars. It is because we are going to have to decommission electric plants FYI and to stop the lights from going out. Perhaps you are not worried enough.

[Rancid]

There is a green revolution so perhaps that is why we are increasing capacity. Although the reason for giving Hickley a very good price for energy produced was not because we had good capacity or even to fuel electric cars. It is because we are going to have to decommission electric plants FYI and to stop the lights from going out. Perhaps you are not worried enough.

I weathered the Texas winter storm of 2021. Froze my ass off for 72 hours.

It's all good!

I suspect it's going to happen again. Fucking Greg Abbot piece of shit. More concerned by the voting fraud ghost than the fucking power Grid. Fuck him, and fuck Cancun Cruz. pieces of shit, both of them.

Also, fuck Trump piece of shit needs to die. CHOKE ON A CHICKEN WING YOU PIECE OF SHIT TRUMP!

[BeesKnee5]

There is a green revolution so perhaps that is why we are increasing capacity. Although the reason for giving Hickley a very good price for energy produced was not because we had good capacity or even to fuel electric cars. It is because we are going to have to decommission electric plants FYI and to stop the lights from going out. Perhaps you are not worried enough.

Hinckley was a complete waste of money and a success for the vested interests of France and China. If it's finished in 2026 I will be amazed considering it's sister plants are still not open and have been more than a decade in the making.

I'm fully aware that in 2025 we will be down to approx 2-3 GW of nuclear capacity, but the reality is Nuclear has been on it's knees for years and barely managing to run at 50% capacity. Coal is already as good as gone, yet last year the National grid had to pay Sizewell B and multiple gas power stations not to produce power because the covid pandemic had reduced demand.

We will continue to increase renewables, storage will increase and gas power stations will increasingly burn biogas and hydrogen. I'm not worried because unlike Texas we have a capacity market that ensures demands are met. More and more that is through renewables with storage or through interconnectors that allow us to call on norwegian hydro power, moroccan solar and icelandic geothermal.