Pants-of-dog wrote:Quote the text from the study that says that.
"Globally, 5 083 173 deaths (95% empirical CI [eCI] 4 087 967–5 965 520) were associated with non-optimal temperatures per year, accounting for 9·43% (95% eCI 7·58–11·07) of all deaths (8·52% [6·19–10·47] were cold-related and 0·91% [0·56–1·36] were heat-related). There were 74 temperature-related excess deaths per 100 000 residents (95% eCI 60–87). The mortality burden varied geographically. Of all excess deaths, 2 617 322 (51·49%) occurred in Asia. Eastern Europe had the highest heat-related excess death rate and Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest cold-related excess death rate.
From 2000–03 to 2016–19, the global cold-related excess death ratio changed by −0·51 percentage points (95% eCI −0·61 to −0·42) and the global heat-related excess death ratio increased by 0·21 percentage points (0·13–0·31), leading to a net reduction in the overall ratio."
If you do a little math (not your strong point, I know), you will see that the reduction in cold-related deaths was ~25,000, or
more than 20 times the increase in heat-related deaths.
Your original claim was that “heatwaves will be no more severe than they have been for thousands of years, and the fraction of people who die in them [i.e. heatwaves] will continue to decline”.
Which is correct.
You did not claim that “temperature-related deaths plummeted” originally.
So you are saying the tens of thousands of net lives saved by increased temperature don't matter because I was responding to a false claim about heat-related deaths??
So, please show that the number of people who died from heatwaves has declined.
The study noted a
very slight increase in heat-related deaths, but only over the
very short time period of the study: 20 years. I haven't found historical data that break out heatwave deaths, but it is certainly the case that climate-related deaths have plummeted:
https://www.humanprogress.org/dataset/g ... -per-year/